Unlucky Search rolls?

[Majorball68]

I suppose everyone has had hard luck stories when it comes to this game and I am by no means have a whinge but can anyone top these dies rolls in 2 PBEM games with me as the Allies?

Its got to the stage where I am paranoid about sending ships out to sea.

These are the last 31 rolls across 2 turns in 2 separate games in order they occurred.

My opponents are rolling a 1 45% of the time, can you imagine the carnage caused?

The roll at line 6 was the only roll in 31 attempts the Allies had surprise points to spend. Not all searches were successful but the rolls have been included.

My opponents lead 22 to 4 and 5 draws.

On the 2 occasions where I did roll a 1 my opponent also rolled a 1.

We are using http://www.pbegames.com/roller/

I have had luck in other areas of the game and some other crucial searches but I just wanted to post this as a matter of interest.

I guess the rolls from line 12 to 14 when a 2 factor German sub in the North Atlantic sent 10 CP to the bottom and another 9 to port shattered my confidence. I should have aborted after the first but I was counting on the law of averages kicking in, lesson learned though

[4personalbusiness]

Once before I rather sheepishly questioned the reliability of die rollers, either in MWIF or any of the others available on the web. Not surprisingly, I never got a reply. So, I'll ask again: How do we know that random die rollers are actually random? And, are there any die rollers that are better or worse than the others.

[Jagdtiger14]

Generating random numbers is a relatively easy program to create. Back in high school (early 80's) I had a friend who created one using Basic (computer language). If the internet die roller were not random, then a purposeful glitch would have to be introduced into the program (by the creator, or a hacker). The question then is, why would they do that? For what purposeful enjoyment? Maybe as an April Fools joke (avoid using them on April 1, perhaps). But they could never see the outcome of their joke...unless the hacker was your MWiF opponent...[&:]

The only other option would be to turn on the Skype/Viber camera and roll real dice on the table in real time.

[paulderynck]

Most situations like this are confirmation bias. 62 is too small a sample to judge randomness. Also most random number generators in use are "psuedo-random" which means the next number out of the chute is predictable if you knew the algorithm that was generating them. This also means the next number will always be that number, it's just that nobody knows what it is until it is produced. (Anybody that is, that doesn't know the algorithm.)

So take a situation where you were the phasing player, moved into a sea zone with enemy units and could have searched but chose not to. Your opponent decides to search and rolls a '1'. You roll a '10'. Now you do know that if you had searched, you would have got the '1' and he would have got the '10'. Great, eh?

Just chalk it up to real bad luck and don't expect it necessarily to ever average out because neither dice nor pseudo-random number generators have memory. Well, actually many of the latter do have memory and will repeat after several million iterations.

[4personalbusiness]

Never liked that term "pseudo-randomizer". Now I know why!

[brian brian]

WiF is explicitly designed so that sometimes high #s are good, and other times low #s are good.

[Majorball68]

There is nothing wrong with the die roller. One opponent rolls Allies first and the other Axis first and I always roll Allies first. There is no pattern to it other than rotten luck. I have however started rolling separate lines for each search roll whereas I was doing 2 rolls on the one line Allies/Axis. I must say doing the rolls on seperate lines is giving better results but once again I am certain is just luck.

[Viktor_Kormel_slith]

Hi, this is what my, nowdays, axis opponents say when they had bad luck rolls: "The hawaian rolled again" or "in this game dice make whatever desires the hawaiian". They think that Steve designed a not real random system, they think he designed a pro-allied pseudo random system...[:'(]

[tom730_slith]

In my current Solitaire game I got in a situation after several bad rolls for Land Combat that I started actually "concentrate on 9's" to hopefully get good combat results. Funny thing is, my next 3 "rolls" were all 9's!! I couldn't believe it and sat there laughing like an idiot!

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: tom730

In my current Solitaire game I got in a situation after several bad rolls for Land Combat that I started actually "concentrate on 9's" to hopefully get good combat results. Funny thing is, my next 3 "rolls" were all 9's!! I couldn't believe it and sat there laughing like an idiot!

Cool that it worked. [:)]

Never had to me though. [:(] So I suppose that my mind is to weak to control the force. [;)] [:D]

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: tom730

In my current Solitaire game I got in a situation after several bad rolls for Land Combat that I started actually "concentrate on 9's" to hopefully get good combat results. Funny thing is, my next 3 "rolls" were all 9's!! I couldn't believe it and sat there laughing like an idiot!

Cool that it worked. [:)]

Never had to me though. [:(] So I suppose that my mind is to weak to control the force. [;)] [:D]

With me, I try to fake the dice out: I tell them the opposite of what I want. Then when the dice try and thwart me, they actually give me what I want.

Sometimes this seems to work. Other times the dice see through me, and give me what I told them I wanted.

[:)]

[AxelNL]

I just had the CW beat the crap out of the Italian fleet which had to stay to cover and supply an otherwise successfull German invasion of the levant. 1's most of the time and big surprise differences. Even the losses of CW where countered by rolling really high when needed most. And it just went on, evading the Ita en Ger air in a lower box. Not so nice to watch while wearing the Axis hat.