The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[jwolf]

That's great progress, especially if the Chinese can take Hengyang as you suggest they can. It's amazing how quickly the China theater changed between who was chasing whom.

[Canoerebel]

There was never any doubt in my mind as to who was chasing whom. One of the weirder aspects of the opening of Peep Show was that the Allies landed at Foochow and moved down the coast and inland, rapidly and with success. Part of the plan was then to retire back to the coast (and safety) while Death Star departed to meet up with the merchantmen coming in from Pearl Harbor. I hoped that John might misperceive the retirement as a retreat and as a Japanese opportunity. I was skeptical that he'd actually pursue into base hexes, but I figured there was a chance that he would. He did.

[Canoerebel]

11/11/44

Coastal China: An immensely significant day in the China campaign, as the tenuous Japanese position simply begins to fray and fly apart.

I think total collapse is imminent. If the Allies take Hengyang tomorrow - and they should, barring big IJ reinforcements arriving - then the route should be on.

The Japanese will have the option of moving to Hong Kong for a Dunkirk op - not a great op, because the Allies can shut down the sea lanes. Or they can push east as hard as possible, hoping to escape the pocket. Some units will make it. Some probably won't.

John may have 250,000 to 400,000 troops involved here. Maybe 5,000 to 10,000 victory points in play (possibly). Pursuit of his army and of the points it represents will be efficient, because the Japanese army is battered and will keep getting more battered.

Most of the Chinese units involved still have '41 squads. They were on the front lines in open, non-base hexes, so couldn't upgrade. Nor did I want them to retire for long journeys to bases that didn't have much supply anyhow. But the pools are full of squads and there is supply. The Chinese army should grow much stronger. All of this will move east and keep going as hard and as fast as possible. Where can John stop the combined Chinese and Western armies?

[Canoerebel]

Jeff (Lowpe), I read your thoughts about 4EB etc. carefully. I agree that the bombing at 2k hasn't worked well the way I did it. I did get lots of points and Osaka is a mess (and Tokyo is battered too), but I lost a heckuva lot of B-29s. I like Loka's thoughts about 2k and probably didn't incorporate important things into my strategy, thus not achieving as good results as he would. So I'll tinker with bombing at 7k or thereabouts for awhile. I'll tinker with lots of things to try to score points and hurt the enemy.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Where can John stop the combined Chinese and Western armies?

Maybe near Korea, Peiping to Tiensten but you probably can force a river crossing betwixt the two with Armor, or invade around. But so far Japan hasn't really excelled at the ground war and forward thinking about base development.

In my game with Tiemanj...I chose never to retreat at this point in China if I was dug in wood or wood rough or city terrain. Better to use the inherent forts and delay. The troops are meant to die, but if they can slow your advance down a day, a week, a month, cause you to use supply or especially divert your bombers from strategic bombing...well then that is something to get excited about (as a JFB).[;)] If there is no valid supply path the troops will fight a long time to the death never retreating.

You can get close to 10,000 victory points in one day of strategic bombing of Honshu.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Jeff (Lowpe), I read your thoughts about 4EB etc. carefully. I agree that the bombing at 2k hasn't worked well the way I did it. I did get lots of points and Osaka is a mess (and Tokyo is battered too), but I lost a heckuva lot of B-29s. I like Loka's thoughts about 2k and probably didn't incorporate important things into my strategy, thus not achieving as good results as he would. So I'll tinker with bombing at 7k or thereabouts for awhile. I'll tinker with lots of things to try to score points and hurt the enemy.

Go wild and experiment, try everything your fevered AFB mind can dream up.[:)] Especially look at the British heavy bomber funnies if the game lasts that long...right now they have a few long legged bombers great for diversionary night attacks say over Korea, but sometime in 45 get some really nifty bombers.

There is definitely a place for low level bombing. Right now all those IJN troops deposits you posted are screaming to be strafed by fighter bombers (especially the retreating ones)...but it always comes down to supply and clicks. Do you have the time enter all those clicks let alone the supply?[;)]

[BBfanboy]

Very interesting that your Tk Bn defeated an entire IJA Tk Rgt and inflicted heavy casualties too! Was your Bn equipped with Shermans?

[Canoerebel]

Here you go.

[BillBrown]

I would classify Col Magata as an excellent commander. As Symon stated, land skill is the most important thing for a LCU engaged in combat.
Couple that with the 80 in inspiration, and you get a unit with a leader that wins battles and is ready for the next one. Notice that that unit has
only 1 disruption and 6 fatigue after a good battle.

[FlyByKnight]

Canoerebel, I've just caught up to your AAR after reading the Japanese perspective, I must say this has provided a fascinating perspective on the events of the game. Your posts make for a great contrast to John 3rd's.

[Canoerebel]

No doubt. Every player (and most AAR readers) have tunnel vision in 1942, where current events are seen clearly while long term projections are made, sometimes proudly or boastfully or while drunk on ego or optimism or inexperience.

Players and the readers did, in good faith, see Sumatra through very different prisms...and then the DEI...and then Luzon...and usually with regard to the points spread, etc.

Eventually, if the players are dedicated and lucky, the game goes deeply enough to testify of itself as to which side was the more accurate in estimating how things were likely to unfold.

[Canoerebel]

John is away for the weekend with his family. I'm spending some time micromanaging things like ground unit commanders, checking each Chinese unit and sending forward every one possible, etc.

More than anything, I've been thinking about Death Star and it's role in the game. I know the role of Strategic Bombing and Ningpo in the game. I know what I want to do with the armies and air force in China. But what about Death Star? Is it offensive or defensive or both?

I've decided that DS shall remain on defense, mainly keeping the still powerful Japanese navy in check and keeping John from getting easy whacks at Ningpo, the rest of coastal China and Formosa. Death Star's job is to prowl and menace while the air force does the job against Japan and the army does the job in China.

With that in mind, I don't want to give John a belated chance at an alpha strike combing LBA, kamikazes and KB. So Death Star won't venture into nests of interlocking enemy airfields, like the Ryukus or Kyusha. She has to remain fairly proximate to Shanghai, and that's enough to handle without blundering into greater peril.

[Canoerebel]

Other than the enemy military, supply is the limiting factor on the Allied pace of operations.

I have enough supply in Formosa, Coastal China, and Luzon to allow the current pace of land activity and air operations for probably a couple of weeks. I have about 60k aboard xAKs with Death Star in reserve, probably to be used in China. And if there is a junction between the Interior China Allied forces and the Coastal China Allied forces, that will have an unknown affect on supply availability. Will the entire Allied army and all bases benefit from the Burma Road...or will the interior Chinese units and bases suck down supply from the coast? That I don't know yet.

The DEI is accumulating a massive reserve of supply - probably enough to full fund all operations in in China/Formosa for four months or longer. There is 400k supply at Boela; xAKs at Boela have 620k supply; TFs inbound are carrying 300k; and many more TFs are inbound.

In about two or three weeks, I'll need to detach Death Star or part thereof to the DEI to escort back supply. The exact nature, timing and configuring of that mission will depend on where John's carriers are and whether there's a clear and present danger posed to Ningpo. There is a chance Ningpo can almost be self-sufficient by then - large airfield, lots of fighters, and big combat TFs.

While DS is in the East China Sea, I have 14 CVEs at Manila. Five more are inbound from SoPac. Depending on where John's carriers are, those CVEs might be sufficient to shepherd the supply to Luzon. Most of the area of transit is safe. The risky stretch is from Talaud-eilanden to Surigao - perhaps 15 to 20 hexes. But there can be no chance taking with 1 million units of supply and probably 300 ships. So I'll err on the side of protection.

[Canoerebel]

With John away, I'm spending more time thinking about what's happened and what might happen. I've been mulling over two predictions or plans that either didn't come true or haven't come true yet.

Early in the game, I predicted that the Allies were doing well in China and that I felt good about Changsha. Eventually, though, John wrested that important base away from me.

Later in the game, as the Allies moved forward from the DEI to Luzon, I envisioned a day when Death Star would return and the Allies would attend to key bases in the DEI. This made sense logistically because I had to leave a strong army in the DEI to protect my main supply hubs - Boela and Sorong. Looking ahead, the troops there prepped for places like Timor, Kendari, Makassar and Balikpapan (on the other side, Brit troops began prepping for Singapore).

But thus far it hasn't made sense to return to the DEI. There were too many opportunities forward, chiefly Formosa and China.

There are points to be harvested in the DEI, but at this late date it doesn't make sense to divert troops and ships down there. The down time of two weeks can be better spent concentrating on China and strategic bombing.

Circumstances might arise in which this changes: if the Allies suffer a carrier defeat, the DEI suddenly becomes an attractive idea. Or, if coastal China becomes self sustaining defensively but I still need victory points to win going into winter of '45, perhaps then.

I am working the victory point angle in the rear a bit. A little campaign managed to take Darwin and vicinity and there are ops underway to sniff the coast further down and to take Luganville. Port Moresby is also still in the crosshairs.

[BBfanboy]

Even with replacements set to "off" (N), the Chinese will suck up huge amounts of supply. I have most of my Chinese units with replacements set to off, but they still gain new squads (disabled). I think the 350 squads a month that arrive at Chungking are pushed out to the field after the pools reach a certain level.

You will need to bring in hundreds of thousands of tons a month just to keep pace. The good thing is that, once they get basic supply, good leaders and morale and experience over 50, the Chinese can overwhelm smaller enemy units by sheer mass.

[HansBolter]

If you want a campaign in China to succeed you need to be pumping supply in.

If your route across the Pacific is too tenuous, what about the route to Rangoon?

I cleared Rangoon in October '43 in my current game and by November I had multiple TFs of liberty ships lined up to dump over 400k into Rangoon the first month it was open.

12 liberty ships carry 75k supply and 6k fuel

16 liberty ships carry 100k supply and 8k fuel

These are the size allotments I use in setting up heavy supply TFs

12-18 of these in a shuttle set up can make China flush in 6 months.

Set up a 4-6 running supply from East Coast to Aden and 4-6 more running from Aden to Madras.

Another 4-6 running from Madras to Rangoon.

This requires a little pre-planning as it takes a bit of time to get the assets in place.

[Canoerebel]

I'm running a variation of that. Supply to India comes in at Karachi from Abadan and Aden. It moves inland, seemingly efficiently.

Then regular supply convoys run from Calcutta to Rangoon. This has been operational for probably four months now. A lot of supply has come ashore and moved into China via the Burma Road. And probably a lot has been used to upgrade TOEs and the like. Right now, Rangoon has 200k supply, Paoshan 40k, and Bangkok, far away and hard to reach, 90k. Chungking has 13k and a stockpile of fuel, of all things. So the supply system is working though I may be taxing it with everything that's going on.

There is still a small threat to my LOC since John controls Port Blair and could slip raiders in. He hasn't thus far and may never do so, but you guys know the concern (40%) I've had about a possible carrier raid the past week.

[tanksone]

Hi, I realize the pace of the war may have prohibited it but did you pull say a 1/3 to a half of your trained bomber pilots in the summer of 44 so you are ready with some trained bomber pilots in 45. In Feb. 1945 pretty much all your bomber squadrons do a major expansion plus all the new B-29s?

[Canoerebel]

This graphic shows that my USAAF bomber pool has 188 pilots total, with those listed having the highest land bombing skill rating.

But the actual reserve of pilots is far, far greater. I have a huge (HUGE!) air force. Perhaps 50% of that air force is actively engaged in the war at or near the front lines in coastal China, Formosa and northern Luzon. Bringing more squadrons into play would require more and bigger airfields, more aviation support, and more supply than I can handle logistically.

The other 50% of my air force is in Burma/Thailand (modestly active), Australia (almost inactive except training), and a scattering elsewhere to protect bases and train.

Meaning, if I have a sudden need for a lot more trained pilots, I can call in pilots from squadrons in other theaters. There are a lot of them.

[Canoerebel]

For instance, here is a B-24J squadron at Townsville, Australia. The squadron is in training. The pilots have acceptable GrdB skills (and not terrible NavG skills). There are a lot more squadrons in Oz, a fair number of them with pilots having considerably higher Exp and GrdB skills.