The winter war

[Christolos]

Hi,

Playing as the Allies, I am trying to understand the intricacies of opting for the winter war with Finland (with the Russians) to benefit from the experience, only to then try and thwart it with the French and English. It seems to me that opting for the war is a hedge against the 50% chance that the French and British expedition may fail. It still seems to me to be a worthwhile proposition given that if successful it will diplomatically move Finland towards the Allies...But what would happen to Finland's Axis/Allies leaning if Russia decided to not launch the winter war in the first place...and could this be considered a better option?

Any thoughts?

Thanks,

C

[Sugar]

De 401 – ussr: Attack finland in the Winter War? § event fires: On the 14th October 1939 when Minsk is in Allied hands, the USSR is politically aligned with the Allies but not fully mobilized, and Finland is Axis but not fully mobilized. § cost of accepting: Nothing. § yes: Both Sweden and the USSR will swing between 3 and 5% towards the Axis on the 30th November 1939 on the historical date of the attack on Finland.

If Stalin decides not to attack, the SU won`t move to the Allies side that 3-5% - and also their war readiness stays where it is.

What happens, if the Allied player decides for Winter War, ban the communists in the french army and to support Finnland, in this case successfully, you may watch here:

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SU collected 413 MPP from the beginninig of the war until march 41. Could have been more...

[Leadwieght]

I think the Soviets really have no choice but to attack Finland via the Winter War DE. The extra territory is an invaluable buffer against Leningrad being squeezed from both sides.

I'm pretty sure Finland will have a pro-Axis leaning even of the USSR doesn't do the Winter war, and if it is even 1% Axis leaning then Finland will come in on the German side once they get close to Leningrad. Thus, you might as well (as the Allied player) get the buffer territory in the Karelian Isthmus.

The calculation regarding the Anglo-French expedition to Finland is less straightforward. The Western Allies get some cheap Special Forces units (and the chance to build an "extra" SF beyond the build limit provided it's purchased before Rupertforce appears in Spring 1940).

If the expedition succeeds, it's nice to swing Finland away from the Axis, but it's pretty easy for the Axis to spend diplo chits to swing it back and have Finland attack from a more forward position. And the hit to Soviet mobilization and hence income caused by a successful Anglo-French rescue of Finland is pretty serious. In 1939-41, Every MPP counts for the USSR as they try to create a minimally competent army to slow Barbarossa's early attacks.

I occasionally take the option for the Anglo-French expedition, but only if I'm prepared to spend British diplo chits to swing Finland further away from the Axis and preclude it completely from entering the war on the Axis side. But on the whole, I think the Finland expedition is not a good bet for the Allies.

[Sugar]

I occasionally take the option for the Anglo-French expedition, but only if I'm prepared to spend British diplo chits to swing Finland further away from the Axis and preclude it completely from entering the war on the Axis side.

How can you manage that against 8 Axis chits without any Allies? They usually need only 1 hit to get the Finns back on their side. Not to mention the difficult income-situation of the Brits at that period...

Another point is the strength of the Finns units being halved after Winterwar, and the nearer frontier to Russia. The Finns align at the end of Axis turn, and a well prepared Russia can do havoc on them, eliminating Mannerheim, the army and the fighter at best, with the rest of their units being cut off in Low Supply.

[kcole4001]

Well, from the Axis perspective, it's extremely annoying to have to spend 50 MPPs to swing Finland back, so I'd say generally it's well worthwhile for the Russians.
They don't go pro-Allied every time, but it's common enough to try, since that means 50 points the German can't spend on units or tech.

[Christolos]

Thank you all for your interesting comments and perspectives.

Does anyone know what happens to the French SF unit after France surrenders? Does it stay in England?

C

[geordietaf]

It vanishes

[Leadwieght]

"How can you manage that against 8 Axis chits without any Allies? They usually need only 1 hit to get the Finns back on their side. Not to mention the difficult income-situation of the Brits at that period..."

Sugar,

My calculation is that if the Axis spends 400 MPPs for 8 diplo chits just to bring Finland into the war, then it's a net gain for the Allies in the long run. Of course they likely won't spend all that, but if the Brits invest in just 2 diplo chits in Finland, then the Axis player has to buy 3-4 to have a minimal chance of swaying the Finns back to his side, 4-5 if he wants to be sure. Even that is an overall gain for the Allies.

But of course this only is an option for the Allies if the British are otherwise doing well and can afford to spend 100 MPPs without it weakening them too much in North Africa.

And CC1: if the Axis player opts not to create Vichy France and then goes on to conquer Algiers, then there's a decent chance (not sure of the exact percentage) that any French units outside of French territory will, upon French surrender, convert to Free French units and fight on for the British. Otherwise they pretty much disappear, including the French SF. I usually try to Transport the unit to a French Channel port like Calais, where it can at least delay a German unit or two as they drive toward Paris.