Hurricane Harvey

[Chickenboy]

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

[btd64]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: General Patton

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

I've heard of it, it's just unusual. The basic explanation given in the past is that there are usually other weather systems -
high pressure and low pressure systems - that wind up steering a cyclone along a front line. Some times the steering forces are not so strong, and much less often are practically absent.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: General Patton

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

That storm track is some crazy s***. Never seen one or heard of one linger for over a week in one area before.

That makes two of us....GP

I've heard of it, it's just unusual. The basic explanation given in the past is that there are usually other weather systems -
high pressure and low pressure systems - that wind up steering a cyclone along a front line. Some times the steering forces are not so strong, and much less often are practically absent.

Yes. That's the explanation I've heard any number of times from the meteorologists on the various news / weather channels too.

Where have you heard of another CAT 4 hurricane lingering, back tracking and re-engaging the same coastline a week later?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

We are feeling the effects all the way up in Canada as the refineries in the Houston area shut down 30% of US capacity, increasing demand for Canadian supplies. I can't imagine the oil companies moving those refineries but they might be able to build some protection for them in future.

By protection do you mean redundancies (i.e., more refineries) or did you mean levees, dikes, earthworks and industrial pumps to evacuate any spillover? The former has been unpalatable for most states in the union. Only one new refinery in the lower 48 in the last 25+ years-crazy NIMBY-ism. The latter would make a lot of sense.

I'm not sure that the refineries have been damaged at this point. Dunno. They were shut down pre-emptively to avoid any accidents and should be able to reopen after (when? if?) the waters recede. The 30% offline will be temporary.

Was thinking of the levees/dikes/pumps/closable Watergates. But I don't know how they could handle the fuel leaving the refinery - submerged roads preclude trucks and pipelines might be too risky given flash floods and landslides triggered by rains. UPS drones, anyone? [8|]

[dox44]

the water is 4 inches from coming in my house. we have no way out as streets are flooded. we are told the river will crest in a couple of hours. our yards and fields are lakes. surreal experience.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: casebier

the water is 4 inches from coming in my house. we have no way out as streets are flooded. we are told the river will crest in a couple of hours. our yards and fields are lakes. surreal experience.

Be safe man. [:(]

I hope you get a few hours respite...

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: General Patton




That makes two of us....GP

I've heard of it, it's just unusual. The basic explanation given in the past is that there are usually other weather systems -
high pressure and low pressure systems - that wind up steering a cyclone along a front line. Some times the steering forces are not so strong, and much less often are practically absent.

Yes. That's the explanation I've heard any number of times from the meteorologists on the various news / weather channels too.

Where have you heard of another CAT 4 hurricane lingering, back tracking and re-engaging the same coastline a week later?

Long ago I heard about that with some (few) storms. Whether any were cat 4 or a pack of lions I do not know. [:'(]

Since we have seen lingering before and are seeing it again it's a safe bet that prior to the detailed records we have now it happened with Cat 4 storms.

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If Harvey goes back out to the Gulf as is now predicted, it could come back on land revitalized. Houston could end up as devastated as New Orleans from Katrina. My SO was saying today that New Orleans has a core of people who deeply love the city and wanted to restore it, but few feel that way about Houston. I'm sure there are people who love Houston, but there isn't the passion about the place New Orlanders hold for their city.

Houston exists for commerce, if the place is too badly damaged to do commerce, the merchants will pick up and go someplace where they can do business.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Aye. But, again where they differ is the presence of concentrated world-class industries and transportation centers in Houston. It will be-up to a point-worthwhile for them to repair their home base of operations in North America and support the community's efforts to do the same.

With all due respect to New Orleanders, their city (particularly the 9th and 5th wards) is still a complete mess economically, structurally, infrastructurally, etc. The passionate core is insufficient to revitalize a major metropolitan area. Houston's oft-besmirched industrial might has some significant advantages that New Orleans never has had and never will.

Yes, there are still parts of New Orleans that is a mess. Good old fashioned Louisiana corruption hasn't helped any.

A lot depends on how much the industries of Houston want to bring back the city. Some industries like the refining can't realistically move, but a lot of the white collar industries could be done anywhere. Houston has been home to the world's oil industry for over 100 years, but few people in it like living in Houston. I've known a fair number of people in the oil industry (including my sister) and all of them felt that having to move to Houston was like being sent to Siberia in the old USSR.

The white collar oil jobs is a huge part of Houston's economy. Starting salary for a Geologist right out of school is around $130K, an establish geo-professional can make $300K a year before bonuses. My friend who was here last week retired two years ago and what finally got him to pull the rip cord was when he looked over his financials and realized he could live indefinitely on his investments, even though the $300K a year was enticing, it wasn't worth the politics and other BS anymore.

If the oil business moves a lot of their offices, the top end of Houston's economy will collapse.

I give it 50/50 odds they will. A large percentage of the workers would be happy to live somewhere else, the requirement everything be concentrated in one geographic location has been gone for a generation, and if the different companies had their offices further apart there would be less poaching of talent.

The refineries are kind of stuck where they are and a lot of the other industrial plants too, though many of them might be out of service for a long time to come. Latest news is chemicals stored at the industrial plants are leaking into the air and water. People exposed to them are getting sick.

This is a very weird hurricane, just about the perfect storm to do the maximum damage to the region with the highest GDP in the hurricane zone. Hurricanes will occasionally go back out to sea, but I have never seen one backtrack and go back out to sea pretty much along the track it came in on. Conditions over the continent were just about perfect to hold the hurricane near the shore. The tropical depression off Florida also helped steer Harvey in where it hit.

Economically, this is going to be a big hit to the American economy. I'm glad I drive an electric car now, no worries about gas prices and my cost of "fuel" is unaffected.

Bill

[Chickenboy]

Meh. I think your "50/50" odds of economic collapse are ridiculously / exorbitantly high. You're not giving any credence to Texan pluck and how much the state pulls together in times of crisis. Texans are very resilient and cohesive. I know a number of Houstonians and they are not as bitter and repulsed by the experience of living in Houston as you suggest your contacts are. Guess we're sampling different folks, but you're entitled to your opinion. But let's try not to poison the well any more than we have to for Texans right about now, shall we?

The Houston economy is heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry for a number of reasons that aren't going away any time soon. As more and more states (particularly those on the left coast) deny their reliance on fossil fuels and continue their cloudcuckooland NIMBY-ism about refineries, offshore oil drilling and natural gas production and transportation systems, they are-by default-allowing those states that are willing and able to do so. Texas has no problem providing that which is needed both domestically and internationally.

The chemical leaching is a problem to be sure. But I've heard reports that the lack of hurricane-specific storm force damage will ensure a more speedy return to normal function than expected. Many many people's homes are flood damaged. The businesses and industries (particularly the oil and gas industry) much less so.

San Antonio's economy used to be more reliant on the oil and natural gas industry than it is now. It has admirably diversified to avoid the typical oil and gas boom and bust cycles that constantly occur. To a lesser extent, Houston can do the same.

I propose a wager, Bill. If, in 5 years time, Houston hasn't recovered much better than, say, New Orleans 5 years post-Katrina then I'll pay up. If it has done a much better job of avoid the economic Armageddon that you predict even odds for, then you'll pay up. Say $100 to the American Red Cross in the winner's name?

Lastly, congratulations on your electric car. I presume that the electricity that you charge it comes from some place other than the conventional grid? You know, the one that generates large proportions of its electricity from large hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and coal? The one that loses upwards of 9.2% of the generated electricity in CA from transmission. (Oregon is somewhat better at 6.4%, WA at 5.9%) Many people with electric cars forget that much of the electricity they rely upon is fossil-fuel generated and, yes, is impacted by market prices accordingly. And don't get me started about the pending Lithium Ion battery disposal difficulties that will be a building concern.

[InfiniteMonkey]

Almost totally agree with Chickenboy on the economic front. Houston will rebound for all kinds of reasons that New Orleans could not. The truth is, New Orleans was lucky with Katrina and Houston was extremely unlucky with Harvey. I could go into detail on that front, but add me to the list of people that are bulish on Houston's long term economy. I'll up the ante Bill: Add my $200 to Chickenboys...

As for the electric car bit...

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Lastly, congratulations on your electric car. I presume that the electricity that you charge it comes from some place other than the conventional grid? You know, the one that generates large proportions of its electricity from large hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and coal? The one that loses upwards of 9.2% of the generated electricity in CA from transmission. (Oregon is somewhat better at 6.4%, WA at 5.9%) Many people with electric cars forget that much of the electricity they rely upon is fossil-fuel generated and, yes, is impacted by market prices accordingly. And don't get me started about the pending Lithium Ion battery disposal difficulties that will be a building concern.

I love my electric car. I've gotten to the point where I hate driving ICE cars - and not for any other reason than the instant torque and smooth acceleration of an electric. I know lots of electric car drivers who power their cars off solar panels they own. I do not personally, but Austin gets a good percentage of it's power from wind and has aggressive solar rebates from the local utility. The only thing that has kept me from installing my own is the expectation that I will be moving in the next 1 to 3 years and building a new house.

As for the Lithium battery issue, realize that they can already be recycled. The question is, will they? Of the over one hundred lithium batteries in my house, the one in my car is by far the MOST Likely to be recycled for a lot of reasons. The lithium batteries in my garage door openers, the key fobs for my car, the
cell phones, cameras, laptops, computers, watches, clocks, etc? Not so likely to be recycled. Economies of scale for recycling the batteries from cars exist because I can collect a ton of recyclable material from three cars. Try collecting key fobs to get a ton of batteries...

[witpqs]

Consider what is done with lead acid automobile batteries - a mandatory deposit that is refunded when a like battery is returned (usually in one transaction when you replace your battery). That results in the overwhelming majority of automotive lead acid batteries being recycled and will do the same for Lithium auto batteries when that is the real thing.

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Meh. I think your "50/50" odds of economic collapse are ridiculously / exorbitantly high. You're not giving any credence to Texan pluck and how much the state pulls together in times of crisis. Texans are very resilient and cohesive. I know a number of Houstonians and they are not as bitter and repulsed by the experience of living in Houston as you suggest your contacts are. Guess we're sampling different folks, but you're entitled to your opinion. But let's try not to poison the well any more than we have to for Texans right about now, shall we?

The Houston economy is heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry for a number of reasons that aren't going away any time soon. As more and more states (particularly those on the left coast) deny their reliance on fossil fuels and continue their cloudcuckooland NIMBY-ism about refineries, offshore oil drilling and natural gas production and transportation systems, they are-by default-allowing those states that are willing and able to do so. Texas has no problem providing that which is needed both domestically and internationally.

There is a fair bit of NIMBY all over, not just on the west coast. My sister is a petroleum Geologist and I have seen the industry up close. I'm not as hair on fire about that sort of stuff as most people.

It's also a little known fact California is one of the top oil producing states in the US (#3 in production and #4 in proven reserves). Texas production has bounced back from the brink in recent years in part because of secondary recovery technologies perfected in California. Though there have been some new fields opened up in Texas because of new fracking techniques developed for fields like the Bakkan.

The chemical leaching is a problem to be sure. But I've heard reports that the lack of hurricane-specific storm force damage will ensure a more speedy return to normal function than expected. Many many people's homes are flood damaged. The businesses and industries (particularly the oil and gas industry) much less so.

San Antonio's economy used to be more reliant on the oil and natural gas industry than it is now. It has admirably diversified to avoid the typical oil and gas boom and bust cycles that constantly occur. To a lesser extent, Houston can do the same.

I propose a wager, Bill. If, in 5 years time, Houston hasn't recovered much better than, say, New Orleans 5 years post-Katrina then I'll pay up. If it has done a much better job of avoid the economic Armageddon that you predict even odds for, then you'll pay up. Say $100 to the American Red Cross in the winner's name?

I am not normally one to make bets, nor am I certain Houston will struggle severely to recover, I did give it 50/50 odds. Though for a charity like the Red Cross, I can go for that.

Lastly, congratulations on your electric car. I presume that the electricity that you charge it comes from some place other than the conventional grid? You know, the one that generates large proportions of its electricity from large hydroelectric, natural gas, nuclear and coal? The one that loses upwards of 9.2% of the generated electricity in CA from transmission. (Oregon is somewhat better at 6.4%, WA at 5.9%) Many people with electric cars forget that much of the electricity they rely upon is fossil-fuel generated and, yes, is impacted by market prices accordingly. And don't get me started about the pending Lithium Ion battery disposal difficulties that will be a building concern.

First off, I didn't buy the car because I'm an eco type. I wanted better fuel economy than my 1992 Buick, but I was only looking for about a 20% improvement. I bought my car because it's a vastly superior car to anything else out there. It has the acceleration of a Corvette, the cargo space of a Subaru Forester, is very quiet, and happens to get the equivalent of over 100 miles to the gallon.

My power is from hydro, but I live 10 miles from the dam. The energy lost in transmission is very small here. That's probably why our electricity is only $0.08/KWH.

Since I did go electric I have done a lot of reading about the infrastructure and impact. For one thing even using the dirtiest source of electricity generation (coal), it's still better to fuel an electric car that way than via gasoline. Gasoline is an amazingly compact energy source, it has 33+ KWh/gal (the EPA uses 33.7, but the actual energy varies depending on the type of blend used), but ICE engines are terribly inefficient. For the average car, only about 20% of the energy in the fuel ends up turning the wheels. Most of the rest is wasted creating heat. The most efficient hybrids get up around 30%.

If you consider transmission losses, losses charging the batteries, and losses converting the DC battery power to AC to drive the motor, electric cars are around 70% efficient. If you charge from a source with no transmission losses (like solar on your house), that can go up to around 80%.

The primary fuel for electricity generation in the US these days is natural gas and it will likely continue to be for the next decade or two at least. Because of all the oil and gas exploration in the last 20 years, North America has a huge glut of natural gas. So it's cheap and has the advantage of being cleaner burning that other fuels of the past. Solar and wind power might surpass natural gas at some point, they are the fastest growing segments of the energy economy, but natural gas is going to continue to be king for the near future.

The battery disposal problem is a myth created by people trying to scare people away from electric cars. And there is a difference between li-ion and lithium batteries. Lithium batteries are like alkaline batteries, they are use once and throw away. Most are in the hands of consumers and recycling post consumer is a hit and miss thing.

Li-ion batteries actually don't have much lithium in them. They are actually a class of batteries with different chemistries, but all have small particles of lithium for the one electrode. The type of batteries used by Tesla use a lot of nickel and cobalt. The Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, etc. use a different chemistry with different materials. All of them use a fair bit of graphite too.

Industrial recycling is a lot easier to do than post consumer and most of the batteries will be recycled through industrial channels rather than consumer. Car mechanics, car dealers, etc. will be sending the batteries into the recycling channel just like lead acid batteries from cars are put through now. It will be essentially be a very similar process to recycling lead acid batteries, just on a little larger scale. The handling is a bit different, but lead acid batteries are chemically pretty nasty and the recycling plants are able to handle that.

Very few li-ion batteries from cars have been recycled to date because very few have reached end of life. Early Nissan Leafs had poor battery management software and they saw some sharp declines in capacity over their first few years, but a lot of 2012 Tesla drivers still have 90-95% of their original capacity 5 years later. Even earlier Tesla Roadsters see close to their original capacities too. With good battery management software, battery degradation is very slow. I've seen 0% in 15 months.

Before end of life recycling, some companies like BMW are turning used battery packs into stationary storage for solar and wind systems. There are debates back and forth about the efficiency of that approach, but battery recycling is a well known thing and anyone who actually knows the business isn't concerned. Today very little lead is newly mined for lead acid batteries, almost all of it is reclaimed from existing sources, mostly old batteries. A large percentage of steel that goes into cars is recycled from old cars too.

Bill

[InfiniteMonkey]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Consider what is done with lead acid automobile batteries - a mandatory deposit that is refunded when a like battery is returned (usually in one transaction when you replace your battery). That results in the overwhelming majority of automotive lead acid batteries being recycled and will do the same for Lithium auto batteries when that is the real thing.

It is already the real thing. Lithium if more valuable per pound than aluminum, copper, zinc, iron, and lead. It is about on par with nickel. As an example, look the bottom left of this recycling center's price list

http://www.pandlrecycling.com/current_p ... n_location

Based upon that price list the 660 lb battery in my Leaf is worth about $200 as recyclable material (and probably more than that).

[InfiniteMonkey]

ORIGINAL: wdolson
First off, I didn't buy the car because I'm an eco type. I wanted better fuel economy than my 1992 Buick, but I was only looking for about a 20% improvement. I bought my car because it's a vastly superior car to anything else out there. It has the acceleration of a Corvette, the cargo space of a Subaru Forester, is very quiet, and happens to get the equivalent of over 100 miles to the gallon.

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey
I love my electric car. I've gotten to the point where I hate driving ICE cars - and not for any other reason than the instant torque and smooth acceleration of an electric.

I just want to highlight to you guys that think electric cars come with "Save the Whales" bumper stickers... Try driving one. I can burn rubber in Eco mode. Press "gas" pedal, car go. Done. No wait for rev to rpm's, etc. Try merging into traffic in one and then try to do the same with any commuter car you compare it to. You will be sold. It's always fun to watch the Mustangs and Corvettes in the rear view mirror when I accelerate in Eco Mode... I don't generally drive out of Eco mode... whiplash concerns you see...

Yes, I am exaggerating... a little.

[wdolson]

YouTube is full of videos of Tesla Model Ss blowing away super cars at the drag strip. One of the car magazines did a thing pitting a Model X vs an Alfa Romeo. To make the drag fair, they put a second Alfa Romeo on a trailer and had the Model X tow that. It still beat the first one in a drag.

You won't see an electric car on the NASCAR circuit for a while because the batteries get too warm with constant high output and production cars have circuitry that limits output to prevent damage from overheating. But in an acceleration contest, a well designed electric will beat all but the quickest ICE. The first time you do it in an electric car it can be terrifying too because it's so quiet, just a bit of hum and it feels like you're being launched off a carrier catapult.

In practical use, it is very, very nice on the freeway. You need to accelerate away from someone doing something weird or merge into tight traffic and it's so easy to do.

Bill

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Consider what is done with lead acid automobile batteries - a mandatory deposit that is refunded when a like battery is returned (usually in one transaction when you replace your battery). That results in the overwhelming majority of automotive lead acid batteries being recycled and will do the same for Lithium auto batteries when that is the real thing.

It is already the real thing. Lithium if more valuable per pound than aluminum, copper, zinc, iron, and lead. It is about on par with nickel. As an example, look the bottom left of this recycling center's price list

http://www.pandlrecycling.com/current_p ... n_location

Based upon that price list the 660 lb battery in my Leaf is worth about $200 as recyclable material (and probably more than that).

You sounded like you thought it was a concern??

[btd64]

Thread hijacking in progress....GP

[Andav]

In a probably futile effort to wring this back to Harvey ...

Native Houstonian here who still lives just Northwest of Houston in a little town called Hempstead. I live on a small ranch which is on a hill. We are high and dry with power.

On Monday Aug 28th, I drove to pick my Aunt and cousin up from a collection point for people being evacuated from their neighborhood due to Hurricane Harvey. At times, I drove through standing water and was thankful for my pickup truck. This morning (Tuesday), I will drive to pick up my mother and father who are being threatened by flooding as well. I tied to get them to leave last night but they would not. I will again be thankful for my pickup. It looks like all the highways I will drive are clear.

The early 1980s pretty much cured Houston of being a one trick town reliant on oil only. It is still a huge part of the economy but it is not the only part. The Port of Houston is really the difference between New Orleans and Houston when it comes to bouncing back.

Wa

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Andav


In a probably futile effort to wring this back to Harvey ...

Native Houstonian here who still lives just Northwest of Houston in a little town called Hempstead. I live on a small ranch which is on a hill. We are high and dry with power.

On Monday Aug 28th, I drove to pick my Aunt and cousin up from a collection point for people being evacuated from their neighborhood due to Hurricane Harvey. At times, I drove through standing water and was thankful for my pickup truck. This morning (Tuesday), I will drive to pick up my mother and father who are being threatened by flooding as well. I tied to get them to leave last night but they would not. I will again be thankful for my pickup. It looks like all the highways I will drive are clear.

The early 1980s pretty much cured Houston of being a one trick town reliant on oil only. It is still a huge part of the economy but it is not the only part. The Port of Houston is really the difference between New Orleans and Houston when it comes to bouncing back.

Wa

Hoping your family recovers, Andav.

Are there any widespread needs (e.g., bottled water, blankets, etc.) still going unanswered?