The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

11/18/44

Fancy Pants: Effective nighttime and daytime 4EB raids vs. Fukuoka. Damage includes 19 George factory points.

Allied units continue working to close the gap, sealing off the overland route to the east. Some key attacks tomorrow.

Over the past two months, Allied sweeps in China have consistently outperformed Japanese CAP with the best planes. I don't make much of that because I assume that John's best pilots are protecting the Home Islands from strategic bombing.

Death Star continues to loiter in the East China Sea. John could pounce any turn, making things suddenly loud and messy rather than routine; but if he doesn't strike within two or three days, DS will retire to shepherd the next big influx of ships.

It seems that another enemy carrier division is moving from the Makassar Strait towards the Pacific. If that's true, John might wait for it before pouncing in the East China Sea...or not.

[JohnDillworth]

CR, John obviously has large SC TF's ready to pounce. Are you leaving any capable surface combat units in the neighborhood to handle his almost certain incursion or will there be no Allied ships hanging around worth shooting? Even if not he might try to bombard your airfields. Got a lot of bombers that might be exposed.

[Canoerebel]

I will leave six or eight combat TFs, including some slow BBs, a CA or two, and a higher number of DDs. The port will be mined. I'll remove all bombers and maximize CAP.

The temptation for John to strike will be great. He'll probably break through and do some heavy damage. The cost to him will probably amount to something meaningful. But most importantly it should take him a few days to figure out when and how to strike, and Death Star shouldn't be gone long. Once it returns with one million + supply and lots of troops, DS will remain there for the balance of the war, in all likelihood. So John can do some damage but it shouldn't be anything grave.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


John: Two turns back he was working a small boast about knocking down Allied dive bombers; then his missed a day of turns and wrote that part of the reason was he was just not up to absorbing yet another beating.

Posts like this make me sad.[:(]

In truth, Japan is horrendously strong at this point in the game, and the Allies aren't putting out heavy beatings yet.

There is no daily shore bombardments by 15+ battleships, not to mention cruisers and destroyers, daily, for months on end.

The Allies aren't gaining 2 and 3 thousand victory point a day.

The Allied Deathstars have been used defensively.

Yes, China is falling, but there is so much positive out there for Japan. So many tools left in the toolbox for this stage of the game.

Sigh.

[Canoerebel]

When flame throwing pitchers age, some adjust and are just effective using other pitches and pitching differently. Some can't make that adjustment - for them pitching was all about power, and when then can't throw 95 any more, they mentally check out.

[DW]

An apt analogy.

I recall another AAR I followed. It was from many years ago, so the details are fuzzy.

I think by PZH, but I wouldn't swear to it.

It's getting to the end game and much of his navy was already lost, but he has one of the late war Japanese carriers in a small task force. He sailed that task force all over the map, raising hell and giving his opponent fits for weeks before it was finally run down and sank.

I think of how well that player was able to impede allied progress with such minimal assets, and then think of all the power John has at is disposal and imagine what that other player would have been able to do with John's forces.

It makes me want to cry... >sniff<

[Canoerebel]

11/19/44

To Pounce or Not to Pounce? Death Star is pulling out, "Staying Power" therefore isn't an issue. So I say it's time to pounce.

[Canoerebel]

11/19/44

The Real Fancy Pants: An interesting turn. John, in his email, commented that there were good things for both sides (forgetting the "no commenting" request, as per DNA makeup). He was right - Japan got in a few good licks on the ground in China. Overall, though, the decided weight of matters in China was very favorable for the Allies. There are so many forces moving, so much confusion ongoing, that sometimes my guys bump into stiff opposition. But they are making solid progress towards completing the desired encirclement.

I'm going to do my best to get that next big slug of supply from the DEI to China within two weeks. That will give my air force and ground units most of December to really work in China and against Japan.

I'm not on a pace to achieve auto victory by January 1 but I'd say that February or March still looks possible.

Now, things could get dicey, especially if a big naval or naval/air battle takes place. That could really change equations either way.

[Canoerebel]

In mid 1942, Death Star (such as it was, then) was positioned in the Bay of Bengal, east of Ceylon. KB was also in the Bay, somewhere between the tip of Sumatra and the Andamans. I thought John was spoiling for a fight on what I deemed my turf. I figured the odds were better than normal, given the proximity of the shipyard at Colombo to handle damaged ships. So I asked this rhetorical question: "If not now, when?

To which Bullwinkle replied, "Um, later?"

He was right but I got lucky. John didn't accept battle. At long range, his strike planes damaged Wasp (and he lost a lot of aircraft) and that was it for the battle.

But it's time to again ask, "If not now, when?"

There are ten things John can do to avoid a strike against his carrier TF - and he's likely to do one of them. But Death Star, on it's way out of the East China Sea, will offer battle.

[Canoerebel]

A fly in the ointment. Many of my DDs are low enough on fuel to mess up movement. So I refueled them but that expended ops points by BBs and CVs, including a number going up to 1,000. I think that means those CVs won't participate in air ops tomorrow? If so, my attack will be seriously blunted.

Is that true? If so, my guys either have to forego the attack or hang around one more day before giving it a try. But am I wrong?

[Lowpe]

Normal movement in the 2nd movement phase, reduced movement in the first phase. TF will move at the speed of the slowest task force.

You don't have far to go...but I don't know any of your settings.

[Canoerebel]

None o' you Peanut Men of the Peanut Gallery ought to respond to this message. IE, I'm speaking rhetorically here or somesuch.

Hey, Forumites, nobody replied to my question! There are three possible reasons: (1) nobody knows the answer (quite unlikely), (2) nobody is reading the AAR any longer (possible), or (3) nobody wants to accidentally give something away in giving an answer (possible).

What I really needed to know was if expending 1000 or 750 ops points by carriers would affect flight ops. I think it does but I aint actually sure.

Anyhow, the orders are entered and Death Star is to move six hexes, closing to within Range 5 of the enemy Q-Ship carrier TF at Okinawa. All my air squadrons were set to range 0, so I had to go in and adjust range settings, adjust some TBM squadrons from ASW patrols to naval strike, and move some squadrons off CVEs and replace them with some dive bombers to give Death Star a modestly more offensive configuration than it had. Click. Fest.

I think there's a 25% chance of a successful strike. As important as that possibility is trying to confuse John a bit by the sudden change from defense to offense. If this works okay, John will spend the following turn allowing for all kinds of moves by Death Star. And that will give me one extra day in the op beginning now to begin Operating Slug of Supply from the DEI.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

I doubt ops cost affects flight operations but thats just a guess.

[Lowpe]

Will consuming 1000 ops points tonight on a carrier prevent air operations the following morning or afternoon? Not in and of itself.

Well, you will move 1 hex most likely in the first phase. 4-5 hexes in the second depending upon speed, and you might even react closer too depending upon settings. Your deathstar might be scattered over two hexes.

I hope you swept Naha from Formosa. Even bombing the runways there.

Did you run in any small destroyer squadrons? Bombard Nago? In fact with the deathstar attracting all the attention, it would be a great time to let you destroyers run wild visiting all the islands around that have shipping, or bombarding.

[Canoerebel]

Formosa fighter squadrons are set to sweep Okinawa.

Several DD and DMS TFs are set to "sweep" the are where Death Star will be moving.

All carrier Corsairs will remain on CAP; probably 2/3rds of the Hellcats are set to full Escort; most torpedo squadrons set to Naval Strike (range 6) as are all divebomber squadrons.

The objective is to take a swipe at John in case he gets lazy or guesses wrong or makes erroneous assumptions; I don't mind blunting my carrier air, as my carriers will be in a position to replenish soon; but I don't want to savage my destroyers or my LBA against a hard target, so I didn't take big chancese. This mission could be signficiant but it isn't as important as escorting in supply TFs from the DEI and probably not as important as ongoing ground support missions in China, where some important attacks and defenses will take place tomorrow.

Hengyang is my biggest concern. I have 950 Chinese AV there, mostly with '41 squads. John has two infantry divisions in the hex and an assault division. Supply should be an issue for his guys. But there's a chance he could take the hex, so most of my LBA will target this hex tomorrow.

[Lowpe]

How big is Naha's runway?

[ny59giants]

I know Jeff (Lowpe) has asked before and gotten a few screenshots, but when viewing China I need hexside control (W) enabled to clearly see what is going on.

I would send in some CV based Corsairs on sweeps and hope they come in before any naval strikes to clear away some of his CAP.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None o' you Peanut Men of the Peanut Gallery ought to respond to this message. IE, I'm speaking rhetorically here or somesuch.

Hey, Forumites, nobody replied to my question! There are three possible reasons: (1) nobody knows the answer (quite unlikely), (2) nobody is reading the AAR any longer (possible), or (3) nobody wants to accidentally give something away in giving an answer (possible).

What I really needed to know was if expending 1000 or 750 ops points by carriers would affect flight ops. I think it does but I aint actually sure.

Anyhow, the orders are entered and Death Star is to move six hexes, closing to within Range 5 of the enemy Q-Ship carrier TF at Okinawa. All my air squadrons were set to range 0, so I had to go in and adjust range settings, adjust some TBM squadrons from ASW patrols to naval strike, and move some squadrons off CVEs and replace them with some dive bombers to give Death Star a modestly more offensive configuration than it had. Click. Fest.

I think there's a 25% chance of a successful strike. As important as that possibility is trying to confuse John a bit by the sudden change from defense to offense. If this works okay, John will spend the following turn allowing for all kinds of moves by Death Star. And that will give me one extra day in the op beginning now to begin Operating Slug of Supply from the DEI.

A surface TF even with 1000 op points spent will still fight if it encounters the enemy. There is no penalty to shooting. I suspect the same applies to carrier operations.

[paullus99]

Given that John seems to have been lulled into a false sense of security - that the Death Star won't be used in an offensive manner, this may be the opportunity you are waiting for.

[Canoerebel]

11/20/44

The Raid That Wasn't To Be: It just wasn't meant to be. John kept his carriers parked at Naha under modest CAP. Allied fighters from Formosa dealt with that CAP in pretty good fashion. But Death Star ended up seven hexes from Naha, with all aircraft set to range six. Arg! It's tempting to wallow in "what might have been!", so instead I'll focus mostly on the what actually happened during the turn, including some important combat in China. But it may be tonight before I can post.