The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

12/2/44

The decisions! The challenges!

CV Bunker Hill: A number of my carriers are still due for 10/43 upgrades.

I can think of at least two players whose AARs I've followed who would never think of proceeding on this kind of basis. I can think of one who is sure that this was the best course of action available - striking hard, striking deep, foregoing upgrades to push back a reeling opponent.

[Canoerebel]

12/2/44

Fancy Pants: Japanese eliminated at Hengyang, and strong Japanese stack at Kukong evicts weak American division.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

The three most important things going on: (1) logistical op to resupply Formosa/China; (2) strategic bombing; (3) China.

With that in mind, this post will deal with the first two, and the next post with the third.

Resupply: Death Star is steaming in good order off the SE coast of Luzon. Some ships will break for Manila now, while most head to Coastal China. To this point, everything has gone remarkably smoothly.

The Empties are nearing Boela now. The period of greatest exposure to danger has closed. If John wants to come after them, he'll have to enter the nest of strong Allied airfields. I doubt he'll do that. He'll be more likely to post combat TFs or carrier TFs in the Solomons, hoping to raid in and pick off juicy TFs. That's not going to happen.

Strategic Bombing: All bombers stood down today, mainly as part of the supply conservation effort. I might schedule another mission or two in the week left before supply arrives at Formosa and at Ningpo.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Northern China: For months, the small detachments of Chinese infantry have been working to interdict Japanese roads. I didn't have much confidence that anything would be accomplished up here but things are beginning to happen.

A bit further south, in the Ichang/Sian sector, the Chinese outnumber the Japanese in nearly every hex by about 2:1; but the Japanese are long dug-in. More importantly, I want to keep the Japanese as deep as possible for as long as possible, for the same reasons I pursued that strategy in western China.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Fancy Pants: The Allies are on the move from Malaya to northern China; things are progressing nicely; every day or so, an enemy redoubt falls (Hengyang, Wuchow, whatever), freeing up an army to move on to another redoubt.

The Japanese remain strong in certain sectors. There is undoubtedly a strongpoint down the Malaya peninsula; the Kukong/Hong Kong/Canton Pocket packs punch and will take time; and the main point of contention will soon be the Hangchow/Shanghai sector.

At this point, I think the Allies would eventually prevail with the forces at hand. But Death Star is bringing an injection of new men and support units. I'm not sure exactly what's coming, but it may be two or three divisions with a lot of supporting goodies.

But the main thing will be the supply and aviation support needed to fully ramp up air operations.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/44

Victory Points: Are creeping up slowly since I stood down most strategic bombing until supply arrives in five or six days. Lots of good things happening on the map, especially in China, but the ground war doesn't usually generate VP in big chunks.

Overall, the Allied lead is almost exactly 30k now. At the present IJ score of 68k, I would need another 39k to achieve victory. Of course, the IJ score will be increasing a bit most likely (although the loss of bases always acts to dampen the IJ score just a bit). But Allied scoring should significantly increase once supply arrives in China/Formosa and the strategic bombing campaign resumes. That's the plan, anyhow.

[HansBolter]

Do you have a feel for how long this resupply will be good for and when you'll have to bring in another allotment, or is it simply dependent on the time it takes the empties to reach a major supply source and return to the theater?

[Canoerebel]

I think this will be sufficient well into the new year, possibly even until auto victory.

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese, establishing a good road link for supply to come in all the way from Burma. If that flow is sufficient to handle operations in China - and I think it might be - then the Allies may be good for the balance of the war. If Burma can supply China, then the supply aboard the inbound ships should be enough to handle air ops out of Formosa through late winter '45.

[MakeeLearn]

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese

Civil War?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese

Civil War?

What's so civil about war anyhow?

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The chief question I have is what happens when the Coastal Chinese Allies meet up with the Interior Chinese

Civil War?

What's so civil about war anyhow?

What's civil about civilians.

[paullus99]

In my experience, as long as you keep dumping loads of supplies into Rangoon, a lot will eventually filter up and down the roads and take care of most of Southeast Asia & Southern China.

If you're still thinking about side operations, establishing a cordon which isolates the remaining resource centers in the DEI from the Home Islands should also be a priority - a series of bases by which you can interdict the remaining sea lanes & prevent the movement of the KB (or any convoys), would be beneficial.

Since you're not going to be landing any significant troops in the Home Islands (just burn that sucker to the ground), preventing the transfer of any remaining resources should be high on your list now.

[Canoerebel]

Once Death Star makes the supply deliveries to Formosa, Ningpo and Foochow, I think these areas will be self sufficient. IE, they won't need DS's constant presence for security. So where does DS go next?

There is a chance DS will be used offensively to raid enemy shipping or ports or to suppress enemy CAP over major industrial targets in tandem with big 4EB raids. Not sure about this yet but it's under consideration.

Death Star will then escort some 100 LSTs to Miri, where they'll pick up much needed fuel.

The next highest priority will be to handle a few ops in the DEI, for the reasons Paullus just pointed out. Transports have been busy moving forward key elements of the next invasions, including 3rd Australian Division 100% prepped for Manado. That target is probably too strong for just 3rd Division, but with air and sea bombardments it might be possible.

The time frame for all these things should take me well into January.

[Lowpe]

My guess is you are going to need more supply.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

My guess is you are going to need more supply.

Agreed.

[Canoerebel]

I don't have enough experience to really know, but I think it could go either way.

Nevertheless, lots of supply is inbound: big convoys to Oz, regular smaller deliveries to Rangoon.

[paullus99]

You can never have enough supply - in my experience, there shouldn't be a single idle allied transport anywhere on the map.

They should all, always, be in route either to pick up supply / fuel, or drop it off.

It gets crazy insane complicated (as we are all well aware), but well worth the time.

[JohnDillworth]

just keep dumping as much as you can in Rangoon. When you think it is enough, double it. Then you won't have anything to worry about in Chine and you might be able to start supplying your other holdings

[Canoerebel]

That's what I've been doing for months: 10 or 15 modestly sized TFs shuttling supply from Calcutta to Rangoon with a few others delivering to Ramree and Akyab. The total supply numbers are pretty impressive. Rangoon to Bangkok and Indochina is more than I need. And Rangoon to Interior China is doing fine.

So the only question remaining is whether that route will also suffice for Coastal China, once I have viable supply corridors. My troops are about to meet in the middle at several places, so the corridors should be open soon.

[witpqs]

At some point it will really help to secure a more direct route from USA West Coast. Otherwise you will just have to keep moving major battle groups out on convoy escort because you will need more and more supply.