The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:45 pm

Because it was the only available unit in the hex when I thought of the benefits of the move - benefits which potentially far outweigh what little good an Indian arty unit might do in China.

There was one small Chinese corps in the hex but it had to stay there to satisfy garrison limits. Nothing else was available from the rear, and there was no way I was going to pull units off the front lines at the expense of a week or more of travel.

Capt. Harlock · Post by **Capt. Harlock** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:54 pm

Meanwhile, for the past month or so, I've been researching the Georgia Secession Convention, giving special attention to the journal of the proceedings.

The former is just for pleasure. The latter is in preparation for writing a story about the crazy spiral of events that led to disunion.

I've always been impressed by Alexander Stephens' calm, eloquent, and well-reasoned speech against secession. A pity that it seems to have made little impact on his audience.

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:59 pm

It made a difference. Or, I should say, half the state agreed with him. It was a very close thing in Georgia.

Opposed to Secession: Alexander H. Stephens, Benjamin Harvey Hill, Joshua Hill, Herschel Johnson (Stephen Douglas's running mate).

Favoring Secession: Robert Toombs, Francis Bartow, Howell Cobb, Thomas R.R. Cobb.

All of them were nationally known politicians; they were huge in Georgia; today, though, most readers in the Peanut Gallery might know little about them.

P.S. Edited to add this: Ultimately, though, it probably wouldn't have changed the course of events. Had the Georgia Convention resulted in a no vote on January 19, 1861, subsequent events would have prodded Georgia into seceding eventually. That's exactly what happened in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas.

palioboy2 · Post by **palioboy2** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:43 pm

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: palioboy2
Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

My feeling is that, as things currently stand, I can sustain the campaign.

Ningpo is within P-38 and P-51 of several big Kyushu bases, and B-24Js can reach into southern Honshu. That should work well with the Superforts.

I didn't get to try the Liberators very long before the supply limits set in, but the ops losses were surprisingly high for night raids.

So, this is an issue that I don't have a definite answer for. But I am cautiously optimistic that the Allied strategic bombing campaign will be effective going forward.

As somebody his read extensively about the strategic airwar over Europe. I feel like your airwar is much closer to that then the actual airwar over Japan. It will be interesting if you can prosecute the airwar with out fighter cover on deepstrikes.

witpqs · Post by **witpqs** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:00 pm

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: palioboy2
Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

My feeling is that, as things currently stand, I can sustain the campaign.

Ningpo is within P-38 and P-51 of several big Kyushu bases, and B-24Js can reach into southern Honshu. That should work well with the Superforts.

I didn't get to try the Liberators very long before the supply limits set in, but the ops losses were surprisingly high for night raids.

So, this is an issue that I don't have a definite answer for. But I am cautiously optimistic that the Allied strategic bombing campaign will be effective going forward.

As somebody his read extensively about the strategic airwar over Europe. I feel like your airwar is much closer to that then the actual airwar over Japan. It will be interesting if you can prosecute the airwar with out fighter cover on deepstrikes.

That's an interesting comment! In my recent PBM I found the same, as have a number of AARs. I know some of it might simply be game engine differences from real life but I figure most is that with hindsight the Japan player is usually much better prepared to defend against strategic bombing raids.

paullus99 · Post by **paullus99** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:34 pm

True, the Japanese lacked much in the way of defensive doctrine. Of course, they were also well behind the technology curve by 1945 as well.

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:39 am

12/5/44

Just back from a family birthday gathering 120 miles distant. Fun day. Long day.

Raid on Iwaki: A handful of Superforts from Ningpo score impressive results in a daytime raid on Iwaki resources. No CAP encountered.

I counted on surprise here. I wondered if John might think low supply was limiting my bombers, and I haven't had any bombers at Ningpo since before the carriers left. Too, this was the first raid on Iwaki and the first raid this far north.

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:52 am

12/5/44

Battle of Monocacy? In what appears to be a late offensive campaign deep into enemy territory (like Early's Maryland campaign in 1864), I think John is moving into the Coral Sea in strength to contest the Allied LOC.

I understand the reasons for this campaign. At certain times the threat would be grave. And there are things he could do if he has means that I don't think he has at this point. But mainly I think this is trying to close the barn door after the horses, cows, chickens, sheep, pigs, roosters, pea fowl, ganders and domesticated skunk have long since departed.

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:33 am

12/5/44

Fancy Pants: John continues to reinforce China; I continue to invite him to do so. I think he's feeding troops into a losing situation - reinforcing defeat. It'll be interesting to see which of us has a better feel for what can and should be done here.

The Japanese army has taken a real beating - Burma, Luzon, Formosa, Indochina and China have probably roughed up at least 20-30 enemy divisions. But I still don't have a real strong grasp as to whether he's feeling a pinch yet. Probably so, but I'm not sure.

paullus99 · Post by **paullus99** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:30 am

If John is, in fact, trying to reinforce his position, he's already throwing good troops away with the bad....

Once you've returned to the area, it would make sense to establish a permanent presence - there shouldn't be a need to have 30+ Carriers in the same hex

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:25 pm

12/6/44

Coral Sea: Carrier raid in the Coral Sea, as expected.

If the Japanese were able to sever or seriously disrupt the Allied LOC in this region at the right time and under the right circumstances it would affect the war.

But I think this is the wrong time and I don't think John has enough to create an impact that would last long enough to create problems. In fact if I'm reading things right, the Japanese raid and related operations won't have any impact at all on Allied operations anywhere.

The biggest thing is that the big Herd inbound already passed through here weeks ago. And ever since Allied nav search caught wind of enemy carriers departing the Marianas on a SE course, I've been taking precautions lest I get caught with valuable shipping too far forward.

Now, if John is bringing a big invasion force that can take Townsville and points north, I've miscalculated. That's most unlikely, though. Besides, Allied air power alone would make just about any land operations impossible for Japan.

John's carriers may sweep through the Gulf of Carpentaria or down into the New Caledonia region. The latter won't mean anything. The former will mean something if John has another carrier force to act as an anvil near Ceram or if he has enough strength to overwhelm Boela's CAP and combat TF patrols. That's possible but unlikely. I'll watch

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:42 pm

12/6/44

Indochina: Saigon falls. Still important mop up left around Cam Ranh Bay, but things are beginning to wind down in this theater.

The forces currently around Hanoi are sufficient to handle that sector. So once the Saigon/Cam Ranh Bay sector is finished, the Allied troops in Southern Indochina will mostly head to Malaya. Many of these units are beginning prep for Kota Bharu or other targets. An amphibious assault to bifurcate enemy defenses in Malaya is likely by early '44 or maybe even late '43.

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:16 pm

12/6/44

Fancy Pants: Complicated and tough campaign ongoing. Japanese activity and intentions in the Kukong/Canton areas bears watching; Allies continue to make good progress on the Changsha to Hangchow Front.

Death Star is closing now on Formosa and Coastal China. First reinforcements and supply may begin landing at Amoy tomorrow.

With KB raiding in the Coral Sea, and with Ningpo/Formosa already pretty much self sufficient for security, the Allied carriers aren't as tethered to defense as they used to be.

jwolf · Post by **jwolf** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:54 pm

An amphibious assault to bifurcate enemy defenses in Malaya is likely by early '44 or maybe even late '43.

Minor edit needed here: you're off by a year. [;)]

The land campaign in China and SE Asia is shaping up really well. Kudos for both the campaign and the great maps and commentary.

crsutton · Post by **crsutton** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:59 pm

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It made a difference. Or, I should say, half the state agreed with him. It was a very close thing in Georgia.

Opposed to Secession: Alexander H. Stephens, Benjamin Harvey Hill, Joshua Hill, Herschel Johnson (Stephen Douglas's running mate).

Favoring Secession: Robert Toombs, Francis Bartow, Howell Cobb, Thomas R.R. Cobb.

All of them were nationally known politicians; they were huge in Georgia; today, though, most readers in the Peanut Gallery might know little about them.

P.S. Edited to add this: Ultimately, though, it probably wouldn't have changed the course of events. Had the Georgia Convention resulted in a no vote on January 19, 1861, subsequent events would have prodded Georgia into seceding eventually. That's exactly what happened in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas.

Lincoln's call for volunteers pretty much sealed the deal for so many fence sitters. But what did they expect? Just got through reading Jesse James: Last Rebel of the Civil War by T.J. Stiles. Have to say that this may be one of the finest historical studies that I have read in a decade. I highly recommend you read it Dan. It is more about the Civil War in Missouri as much it is about this pivotal player. Lesson learned is that you really have to look at the Civil War not as a four year conflict but as a struggle that started well before 1861 and did not end until reconstruction was destroyed and Southern white voters recaptured the legislatures in the South. Eye opening. One key player is Adebert Ames-one of the heroes of Gettysburg. Who would have thought that he was in the thick of the gunfight in Northfield Minnesota that crushed the James-Younger gang? https://www.amazon.com/Jesse-James-Last ... 0375705589

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:18 pm

Thanks, Ross, for the tip. And I still haven't retrieved the book you suggested about the Battle of the Atlantic.

jwolf: I am constantly surprised at the number of typos I introduce into my diagrams. Ack!

Lowpe · Post by **Lowpe** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:21 pm

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

jwolf: I am constantly surprised at the number of typos I introduce into my diagrams. Ack!

Add me to that camp.[:(]

anarchyintheuk · Post by **anarchyintheuk** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:30 pm

ORIGINAL: paullus99

If John is, in fact, trying to reinforce his position, he's already throwing good troops away with the bad....

Once you've returned to the area, it would make sense to establish a permanent presence - there shouldn't be a need to have 30+ Carriers in the same hex

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 11:15:56 PM

witpqs
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Posts: 21958
Joined: 10/5/2004
From: Argleton
Status: online Maybe you should take some very-long range cargo ships (Liberty or Victory come to mind but maybe Victory on account of their speed) filled only with supply and send them west from Hawaii to inside of John's detection range, then pull them back and route them the usual way.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/site/staffmonkeys/

Imo it's better to wipe your lcus out in China so that you can rebuild them in the homeland than have them sit out the rest of the war wherever they were . . . providing he has the supply/armaments etc. to rebuild them.

palioboy2 · Post by **palioboy2** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:33 pm

Do remember the name of the book?

Canoerebel · Post by **Canoerebel** » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:40 pm

The Good Shepherd