The Accidental War Obvert vs Lowpe

[Lowpe]

Actually, a better question is who isn't reading Obvert's AAR?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Actually, a better question is who isn't reading Obvert's AAR?

I look at his once in awhile, but he tends to post whole CRs, and I don't read them much. I don't know what he's doing in Sumatra . . .

. . . but I consider every day Japan does NOT hold Pbang to be a gift I will receive in 1944. In my games it's also been the go-to for supply shots into Singers as long as that was worth losing the ships. Cause you almost always lose the ships.

[DanSez]

I am not reading the Evil Empire's plans or musings.
Your mis-adventure is great reading and an interesting contest, but if you make it past 1944 I will be pleasantly surprised.

I will be cheering you on but I am a couple of grades down the food chain to the action here.

[Lovejoy]

I think it would be hard not to read both sides in this game just because its early 1942 with an activated Soviet Union. It's kinda hard just to read one side!

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Actually, a better question is who isn't reading Obvert's AAR?

Me.[:)]

I only read one side's AAR when I intend to actively participate with strategic/tactical commentary. Matches which I don't really care for either side I might read both. For those I tend to limit myself to clarifying game mechanics. It is far too easy to breach OpSec and I constantly see posters to both sides AAR falling foul.

Most AARs I don't read although if I notice that certain individuals are listed as the last poster I might click on to read that individual's post.

Alfred

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

This is such a strange game! [8D]

I do seem to recall folks predicting that an early Soviet activation would be a Japan cake-walk due entirely to the superiority of their air force.

Hmm . . .

Nobody I know has ever started a war with the Soviets this early, outside of Focus Pacific. In addition, most Japanese players pull a surprise attack on the Soviets, but it was Japan that got surprised.

By June, the Japanese fighters can dominate, and during 1942 the Soviets will lose 7 Divisions (approximately) to fight the Germans.

But offsetting the Japanese eventual superiority in the air, is the excellent Soviet AA.

There is very little plane builds, or even replacement troops.

So, I anticipate a change in fortune here eventually, before the end.

In the thread I'm thinking of I don't think there was any date hedging. I was on the other side; I'm not an airplane guy and they can do what they do, but they aren't magical.

In that thread I think I counted up the USSR land OOB and it was something like 32 divisions and division equivalents. They do lose a lot, get a lot, lose some more, get more back, etc. It's a revolving door until 1945.

No, nobody I know of has done what you have here. I applaud the try. Very instructive. But Japan is in trouble worldwide as the Soviet front just deforms every timetable and resource allocation during the critical USA-weak months.

In case I'm not being clear--I think you've done a great job. [:'(]

The 2000 AV garrison "bug" at Harbin (ed: wrong city the affected city was Mukden) has been a very significant factor in aiding the Soviet performance in this match. IIRC that typo "bug" did not exist in 2009-2011 (approximately) or was not perhaps spotted when that earlier discussion probably occurred. Without the typo Lowpe would have been able to position another 1800 AV to meet the Soviet rush. That would completely alter the land dynamics.

Alfred

Edit: The affected city was Mukden, not Harbin. See post #1123 for the details.

[Encircled]

Tiny little feets.

Goddamm these versions that make the IJN super strong! [;)]

[Mahrgell]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Actually, a better question is who isn't reading Obvert's AAR?

Me actually.
Generally I'm almost solely interested in JFB AAR, and my willingness to read AARs depends heavily on the writer. You have a great compact style to present all your exploits, which makes it fun to read. Add to that, that you somehow always land in very "special" situations.

So for the last months, I read your AARs exclusively ^.^

[ny59giants]

Southern Sumatra: He may not be able to threaten Palembang from the ground, but by capturing Oosthaven and other bases, he can bring into play his short legged Hurricanes and the American P-39/40s. He will stretch your Zeros even more until your beloved Nicks come out to protect the oil there.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

The 2000 AV garrison "bug" at Harbin has been a very significant factor in aiding the Soviet performance in this match. IIRC that typo "bug" did not exist in 2009-2011 (approximately) or was not perhaps spotted when that earlier discussion probably occurred. Without the typo Lowpe would have been able to position another 1800 AV to meet the Soviet rush. That would completely alter the land dynamics.

Alfred

Mark up another thing about the game I had never heard of. That's a huge garrison.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

This is such a strange game! [8D]

I do seem to recall folks predicting that an early Soviet activation would be a Japan cake-walk due entirely to the superiority of their air force.

Hmm . . .

Nobody I know has ever started a war with the Soviets this early, outside of Focus Pacific. In addition, most Japanese players pull a surprise attack on the Soviets, but it was Japan that got surprised.

By June, the Japanese fighters can dominate, and during 1942 the Soviets will lose 7 Divisions (approximately) to fight the Germans.

But offsetting the Japanese eventual superiority in the air, is the excellent Soviet AA.

There is very little plane builds, or even replacement troops.

So, I anticipate a change in fortune here eventually, before the end.

In the thread I'm thinking of I don't think there was any date hedging. I was on the other side; I'm not an airplane guy and they can do what they do, but they aren't magical.

In that thread I think I counted up the USSR land OOB and it was something like 32 divisions and division equivalents. They do lose a lot, get a lot, lose some more, get more back, etc. It's a revolving door until 1945.

No, nobody I know of has done what you have here. I applaud the try. Very instructive. But Japan is in trouble worldwide as the Soviet front just deforms every timetable and resource allocation during the critical USA-weak months.

In case I'm not being clear--I think you've done a great job. [:'(]

The thing that is hard to really measure at this point is the incredible supply burn taking place in Russia. The addition of another massive front probably just puts too much on the Japanese resource plate. Even if Japan has a lot of success elsewhere in 1942 I would think their economy would just have to implode at some point. I think the best Allied strategy is to just "fight hard" anywhere possible. As the Allied player I would be more receptive to risking and losing LCU in the Pacific just to keep Japan busy whereas without the Russian front I would tend to be more conservative.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Alfred

The 2000 AV garrison "bug" at Harbin has been a very significant factor in aiding the Soviet performance in this match. IIRC that typo "bug" did not exist in 2009-2011 (approximately) or was not perhaps spotted when that earlier discussion probably occurred. Without the typo Lowpe would have been able to position another 1800 AV to meet the Soviet rush. That would completely alter the land dynamics.

Alfred

Mark up another thing about the game I had never heard of. That's a huge garrison.

Bullwinkle,

I gave you the wrong city. It was Mukden, not Harbin which had the typo 2000 AV garrison. It is covered in post #1123 with a link back to the thread where Symon confirmed it was a typo.

Alfred

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

The thing that is hard to really measure at this point is the incredible supply burn taking place in Russia. The addition of another massive front probably just puts too much on the Japanese resource plate. Even if Japan has a lot of success elsewhere in 1942 I would think their economy would just have to implode at some point.

Supply can be managed, and there will be enough to 1945.

It is the better starting point for the Allied reconquista that is truly the problem.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Mahrgell

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Actually, a better question is who isn't reading Obvert's AAR?

Me actually.
Generally I'm almost solely interested in JFB AAR, and my willingness to read AARs depends heavily on the writer. You have a great compact style to present all your exploits, which makes it fun to read. Add to that, that you somehow always land in very "special" situations.

So for the last months, I read your AARs exclusively ^.^

Wow, thanks.

[Lowpe]

The Rufe, one of my favorite planes, arrives next month and will be a huge help.

Deep base defense against the Allies, surprise CAP and LRCAP, Low CAP on the KB, and front line duty against the Soviets.

5 Sentai can upgrade to the Rufe by the end of April, if I can expand them all to 24 they will provide a great benefit to the Empire.

April: Rufe
May: Nick & A6M3 (game changers)
June: Tojo IIa

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

This is such a strange game! [8D]

I do seem to recall folks predicting that an early Soviet activation would be a Japan cake-walk due entirely to the superiority of their air force.

Hmm . . .

I said no such thing!


I think this will have an early, sad ending for Japan. I also think the Allies are being unnecessarily aggressive all over the map, which may end up squandering some of the enormous advantage the early Soviet activation should have brought.

In the medium term, Lowpe may be able to fight into a naval stalemate in the Pacific. In such a case, the measurable consequences of the early activation would be greater supply burn due to the massively inflated land war, a tighter perimeter in the Pacific and China, and potentially a loss of industry earlier than otherwise in Japan.

I'm not sure the IJA can hold the Red Army back from strategic bombing positions before the Allies would be in range from the Pacific. Even though Japan has fighter superiority, the capability to bomb out LCUs hardier than the Chinese and early-war SRA garrisons just isn't there in the IJNAF/IJAAF OOB. 4x250kg bombs don't do all that much to Allied devices. Keeping USAAF bombers out of B-24 range could be possible, but once the B-29 groups arrive in 1944... good night, sweet prince.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

The thing that is hard to really measure at this point is the incredible supply burn taking place in Russia. The addition of another massive front probably just puts too much on the Japanese resource plate. Even if Japan has a lot of success elsewhere in 1942 I would think their economy would just have to implode at some point. I think the best Allied strategy is to just "fight hard" anywhere possible. As the Allied player I would be more receptive to risking and losing LCU in the Pacific just to keep Japan busy whereas without the Russian front I would tend to be more conservative.

That depends. A series of medium to major Allied defeats in the Pacific could alleviate Japan's supply expenditures to such an extent elsewhere as to make the Russian conflict much less unaffordable.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Mahrgell

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Will bombard the base with battleships, cruisers, light cruisers and destroyers from 12 cm range.

Wow. That's brutal. [X(]
I wonder how your ships will sneak up that close. (and get back into the water after) But so far you managed to surprise in all your games, so I'm looking forward to it.

You are not a JFB....12cm is the size of the main guns on destroyers. [:)]

Technically it's 12.7cm, isn't it? [;)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Technically it's 12.7cm, isn't it? [;)]

Quite right.[;)]

[Lowpe]

No turn till tomorrow, the Allies are stuck without phone or internet. Obvert will try from a cafe tomorrow to send the turn.\

I guess that is ok, as the neighbor's house one removed just caught fire, 4 firetrucks, 3 ambulances, helicopter, utilities truck and road closed. I think everyone is out.