The Accidental War Obvert vs Lowpe

[Lowpe]

March 7, 1942

Naval action...

[Lowpe]

More Sakhalin action

[Lowpe]

Gadzooks!

I don't see how the game can last past 1943 now.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Gadzooks!

I don't see how the game can last past 1943 now.

The real question is how did they get there. non-SOV forces are, IIRC, not supposed to be able to move from SOV hexes. Or do I have the wrong?

[&:]

[Lowpe]

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

You are neglecting to take into account that the pools for those aircraft are incredibly low until the B-24J has been in production for quite some time.

You should play the Allies sometime. [;)] Or at the very least, load up a Tracker for a day 1 of your scenario as the Allies and look at arrival dates of units (with full complements of planes) as well as production dates/rates.

4E production/replacement is anemic until late 1943 at earliest (whenever the B-24J arrives at 48 per month). B-17 production halts entirely at some point. Also, 48 B-24s per month is a reasonable number for you to kill/render inoperable.

Also, he has to be able to get engineers in to build that base to level 8 - the Soviets don't have all that many engineers, and IIRC he could base non-Soviet aircraft at those bases in any case so long as they did not have the Soviet country code (I forget the specifics, but if it's based on HQ then it's easy enough to do what he did here). So your priorities should be:

1) Preventing USN Seabees or USA EABs from arriving. This means holding onto the Sakhalins where he could land them (even via SST or lone APDs). As a bonus to this, he wouldn't be able to transfer anything but bombers and P-38s to these bases in Manchuria due to not having the legs on other aircraft.

2) Farm as many aircraft VPs from him as you can, especially if he insists on driving his bombers hard in trying to force your industry down early. If he can't protect the airfield very well with fighters, even Japanese bombers can get them on the ground.

Additionally, 3) I would be trying to smash the early war USN to throw wrenches into the gears of a Pacific drive in order to stave off the time when you will be fighting on 2 aerial defense fronts.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

You are neglecting to take into account that the pools for those aircraft are incredibly low until the B-24J has been in production for quite some time.

You should play the Allies sometime. [;)] Or at the very least, load up a Tracker for a day 1 of your scenario as the Allies and look at arrival dates of units (with full complements of planes) as well as production dates/rates.

4E production/replacement is anemic until late 1943 at earliest (whenever the B-24J arrives at 48 per month). B-17 production halts entirely at some point. Also, 48 B-24s per month is a reasonable number for you to kill/render inoperable.

Also, he has to be able to get engineers in to build that base to level 8 - the Soviets don't have all that many engineers, and IIRC he could base non-Soviet aircraft at those bases in any case so long as they did not have the Soviet country code (I forget the specifics, but if it's based on HQ then it's easy enough to do what he did here). So your priorities should be:

1) Preventing USN Seabees or USA EABs from arriving. This means holding onto the Sakhalins where he could land them (even via SST or lone APDs). As a bonus to this, he wouldn't be able to transfer anything but bombers and P-38s to these bases in Manchuria due to not having the legs on other aircraft.

2) Farm as many aircraft VPs from him as you can, especially if he insists on driving his bombers hard in trying to force your industry down early. If he can't protect the airfield very well with fighters, even Japanese bombers can get them on the ground.

Additionally, 3) I would be trying to smash the early war USN to throw wrenches into the gears of a Pacific drive in order to stave off the time when you will be fighting on 2 aerial defense fronts.

I have thought of all that you said, and quite frankly, find no merit in almost any of it. Sorry.

Soviet engineer force is more than adequate to build it to level 8. Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

B17 replacement pool is something like 15 planes a month, plus newly arriving squadrons which I remember comes in a big slug in April of 42, B24 arrive in July at 24 a month plus new squadrons. A nightime bombing campaign within normal distance of the b17 will be devastating. If he flies in at 2k as is your want, losses might be higher, but Honshu would burn badly. Against a gifted Allied player, there would be no chance to research planes ahead in any meaningful way.

The necessity to allocate a huge fighter force, to flying at night, will further dilute Japan's ability to do anything.

The Soviets don't need Allied units other than that original one to flip the base.

What in the world does a two aerial war defense front mean? I am fighting defensively over Magwe, Over Sumatra, Over Borneo, Over China, Over Manchuko, Over Hokkaido, and I fear over Honshu.

there is something like 40 arriving heavy bomber squadrons by 1943 in the range of 3-12 planes each. With the replacement rate, more than enough to mount nasty raids over Honshu industry at night.



btw, I have played the Allies.

[Lokasenna]

Hold on there, Chicken Little.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Soviet engineer force is more than adequate to build it to level 9. Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

It has to get there first. It will need to walk over a few slower walking hexes, and at the expense of other Soviet base building (although it's an obvious boon to him to do so, if only because it forces you to react).

You'll get past the Migs someday. He doesn't get that many of them and you will, eventually, have a permanent numbers advantage.

For the AA: bomb from higher up? I don't know. MM doesn't seem to have suffered overmuch from my 1945 Soviet AA.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

B17 replacement pool is something like 15 planes a month, plus newly arriving squadrons which I remember comes in a big slug in April of 42, B24 arrive in July at 24 a month plus new squadrons. A nightime bombing campaign within normal distance of the b17 will be devastating. If he flies in at 2k as is your want, losses might be higher, but Honshu would burn badly. Against a gifted Allied player, there would be no chance to research planes ahead in any meaningful way.

The replacements dry up as it transitions to the B-24 model. A single bad raid and he loses an entire month of B-17 replacements. There is a slight swelling of the ranks during 1942, but it goes away as other areas of the Allied OOB ramp up. Husbanding your bomber strength is a challenge as the Allies.

Many (nearly all) of the early arriving (before 1944) B-24 squadrons only have 2 planes in them - the other 10 (or 14) must be taken from the pools.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The necessity to allocate a huge fighter force, to flying at night, will further dilute Japan's ability to do anything.

You've got 100% knowledge of your situation and we (I) don't, but this just sounds like moaning to me. Buck up, soldier!

In seriousness, I understand what you're saying, but there are steps you can take to protect most of your "stuff." The most important is simply impacting his ability to fly bombers: the easiest thing here is his pools.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Soviets don't need Allied units other than that original one to flip the base.

Sure, but the Soviets can't support imported units with:
- imported supplies (to an extent)
- additional imported air support
- additional imported fighters, in the case of supporting bombers

You can prevent all of those things from happening, rendering the presence of a USA unit right now much less relevant until 1944 at least.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What in the world does a two aerial war defense front mean? I am fighting defensively over Magwe, Over Sumatra, Over Borneo, Over China, Over Manchuko, Over Hokkaido, and I fear over Honshu.

Sorry, I meant over Japan as one and over everywhere else as two. Most of the places you list (Sumatra, Borneo, and to an extent China) are places that will be removed from needing an active air presence (with the exception of ASW and early warning Nav Search) once you have captured them.

Has this blunder really cost you the ability to capture Sumatra and Borneo at all, whatsoever? It's still very, very early.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The replacements dry up as it transitions to the B-24 model. A single bad raid and he loses an entire month of B-17 replacements. There is a slight swelling of the ranks during 1942, but it goes away as other areas of the Allied OOB ramp up. Husbanding your bomber strength is a challenge as the Allies.

I should mention also that if he really does concentrate all of his heavy bomber eggs at a couple of Manchurian airfields in the hopes that he can crash your industry early, it affords you opportunities elsewhere. If they're all in Manchuria, you don't need to keep a permanent CAP over Singapore or Hong Kong, for example. Even more so if you can chew them up on the ground or in the air.

[mind_messing]

MM doesn't seem to have suffered overmuch from my 1945 Soviet AA.

I remember the KB's raid of Vlad very differently evidently...

Back to the topic at hand, I'm with Loka on this.

It's a single hex, and it needs built up. That gives you time to prepare.

Diluting your fighter force to night CAP at this point will lose you the game - your fighters need to be over his airbases sweeping away his fighters to make way for the bombers to kill 4E's on the ground.

If your planes can't get through during the day, send them in at night.

Check the ceilings on the Soviet AA, and fly above that. Sure, accuracy will take a big hit, but it's better than needlessly loosing bombers.

Once you've swept the DEI out, there's very few points of contention for the Allies to engage in air combat with you, and most of those require his longest ranged fighters. Burma, Eastern DEI, SWPAC, CENTPAC; all of which are far removed from your industrial centers., and even better, he needs long-range fighters for the DEI and CENTPAC.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

MM doesn't seem to have suffered overmuch from my 1945 Soviet AA.

I remember the KB's raid of Vlad very differently evidently...

Back to the topic at hand, I'm with Loka on this.

It's a single hex, and it needs built up. That gives you time to prepare.

Diluting your fighter force to night CAP at this point will lose you the game - your fighters need to be over his airbases sweeping away his fighters to make way for the bombers to kill 4E's on the ground.

If your planes can't get through during the day, send them in at night.

Check the ceilings on the Soviet AA, and fly above that. Sure, accuracy will take a big hit, but it's better than needlessly loosing bombers.

Once you've swept the DEI out, there's very few points of contention for the Allies to engage in air combat with you, and most of those require his longest ranged fighters. Burma, Eastern DEI, SWPAC, CENTPAC; all of which are far removed from your industrial centers., and even better, he needs long-range fighters for the DEI and CENTPAC.

I was talking about the IJAAF 2E's. The KB planes of course got pounded, but their durability is lower, they fly slower, and the dive bombers fly lower.

[Capt. Harlock]

Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

What about naval bombardment?

[Encircled]

Not sure even the Yamatos guns will reach that far inland! [:)]

[Encircled]

Just want to back up what has been said already.

Yes, 4Es are an issue, but you have 18 months till the pools get too big. All it takes is one successful interception with good, cannon armed fighters and he's grounded for a couple of weeks.

[Yakface]

I'm with Lowpe on this. A US available base within heavy bomber range of Japan ends the war because:

1) I think we can agree that Japan will lose, and very quickly, if US do significant damage to Japanese infrastructure this early in the war, as a consequence:

2) Japan will have to defend the home islands from air attack.

3) Japan has a large number of manufacturing sites that will need to be defended both night and day.

4) In order to perform 3) I would estimate Japan will need at least 500 fighters permanently assigned (based on 10 bases with 25 defenders in two phases: night and day).

5) Japan cannot assign 500 fighters away from other theatres and expect to compete with British and US airpower anywhere. US doesn't even nee to use those heavies - they could just sit there and oblige the Japanese to keep half their airforce at home.

6) Even then the Allies will have the whip hand - they can attack or not, send in strong sweeps against strung out defenders, send in concentrated 4E raids against a single base to overwhelm defenders etc etc etc

It's just a no win situation for Japan that is only going to end one way.

Oh and 7) Attempting to keep the base permanently closed vs US and USSR fighters will just have the effect of bleeding the IJ airforce white.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Yakface

I'm with Lowpe on this. A US available base within heavy bomber range of Japan ends the war because:

1) I think we can agree that Japan will lose, and very quickly, if US do significant damage to Japanese infrastructure this early in the war, as a consequence:

2) Japan will have to defend the home islands from air attack.

3) Japan has a large number of manufacturing sites that will need to be defended both night and day.

4) In order to perform 3) I would estimate Japan will need at least 500 fighters permanently assigned (based on 10 bases with 25 defenders in two phases: night and day).

5) Japan cannot assign 500 fighters away from other theatres and expect to compete with British and US airpower anywhere. US doesn't even nee to use those heavies - they could just sit there and oblige the Japanese to keep half their airforce at home.

6) Even then the Allies will have the whip hand - they can attack or not, send in strong sweeps against strung out defenders, send in concentrated 4E raids against a single base to overwhelm defenders etc etc etc

It's just a no win situation for Japan that is only going to end one way.

Oh and 7) Attempting to keep the base permanently closed vs US and USSR fighters will just have the effect of bleeding the IJ airforce white.

Per 6 - the Allies don't have any sweepers that can reach from there to Japan except for P-38s until the later Corsair models come, along with the P-47N and P-51D. Until then, they're stuck at 10 hexes (P-47D25) or less (P-47D2 is 9). And the Allies don't get very many P-38s until, well - later.

I think your estimate of required fighters is far too high. The USAAF does not have that many bombers yet, and does not get that many more in 1942. They would also be without fighter cover and without sweep support. Protection can also be concentrated on the bases that matter (of which there are, not the 40-point Resource/LI centers. Would losing those hurt Japan? It would sting, but that's it.

I just scrolled back up to the map. That's 11 hexes from Sapporo - barely within normal range of B-25s. But B-25s are far more fragile than B-17s and B-24s, and the pools are not all that deep until, again, later.

But it doesn't matter how many he gets later if Lowpe can prevent the base from being within USAAF fighter transfer range and then maintain air superiority (the latter of which he should be able to accomplish). With only Soviet fighters to provide cover, they'd rapidly run out of said fighters. At that point, the bombers are at Lowpe's mercy. If Obvert launches a bunch of raids, they'll be damaged and then on the ground without adequate fighter cover, where they can then be destroyed.


I'm not suggesting this isn't something that needs to be dealt with, but it IS something that can be dealt with without too much difficulty from the current situation.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

You are neglecting to take into account that the pools for those aircraft are incredibly low until the B-24J has been in production for quite some time.

You should play the Allies sometime. [;)] Or at the very least, load up a Tracker for a day 1 of your scenario as the Allies and look at arrival dates of units (with full complements of planes) as well as production dates/rates.

4E production/replacement is anemic until late 1943 at earliest (whenever the B-24J arrives at 48 per month). B-17 production halts entirely at some point. Also, 48 B-24s per month is a reasonable number for you to kill/render inoperable.

Also, he has to be able to get engineers in to build that base to level 8 - the Soviets don't have all that many engineers, and IIRC he could base non-Soviet aircraft at those bases in any case so long as they did not have the Soviet country code (I forget the specifics, but if it's based on HQ then it's easy enough to do what he did here). So your priorities should be:

1) Preventing USN Seabees or USA EABs from arriving. This means holding onto the Sakhalins where he could land them (even via SST or lone APDs). As a bonus to this, he wouldn't be able to transfer anything but bombers and P-38s to these bases in Manchuria due to not having the legs on other aircraft.

2) Farm as many aircraft VPs from him as you can, especially if he insists on driving his bombers hard in trying to force your industry down early. If he can't protect the airfield very well with fighters, even Japanese bombers can get them on the ground.

Additionally, 3) I would be trying to smash the early war USN to throw wrenches into the gears of a Pacific drive in order to stave off the time when you will be fighting on 2 aerial defense fronts.

I have thought of all that you said, and quite frankly, find no merit in almost any of it. Sorry.

Soviet engineer force is more than adequate to build it to level 8. Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

B17 replacement pool is something like 15 planes a month, plus newly arriving squadrons which I remember comes in a big slug in April of 42, B24 arrive in July at 24 a month plus new squadrons. A nightime bombing campaign within normal distance of the b17 will be devastating. If he flies in at 2k as is your want, losses might be higher, but Honshu would burn badly. Against a gifted Allied player, there would be no chance to research planes ahead in any meaningful way.

The necessity to allocate a huge fighter force, to flying at night, will further dilute Japan's ability to do anything.

The Soviets don't need Allied units other than that original one to flip the base.

What in the world does a two aerial war defense front mean? I am fighting defensively over Magwe, Over Sumatra, Over Borneo, Over China, Over Manchuko, Over Hokkaido, and I fear over Honshu.

there is something like 40 arriving heavy bomber squadrons by 1943 in the range of 3-12 planes each. With the replacement rate, more than enough to mount nasty raids over Honshu industry at night.



btw, I have played the Allies.

Well, for the Allies it is not easy to maintain many HB units. In mid 43, I would say fully 1/3 of my HB units were flying obsolete aircraft or had no aircraft to fly. Still, if the Allied player is careful and awaits the opportunity, he can still put 100 bombers over a target. Problem is, medium bomber replacements are also anemic so the temptation is to use the HB everywhere-with some justification. If this game has the upgraded Japanese fighter stats that you find in DaBabes, then the Jack and George can arrive fairly early and are both 400 mph fighters. It is hard for the Allies to keep bombers in the air. My bomber losses are running about 25% higher over my last stock campaign.

[Yakface]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Yakface

I'm with Lowpe on this. A US available base within heavy bomber range of Japan ends the war because:

1) I think we can agree that Japan will lose, and very quickly, if US do significant damage to Japanese infrastructure this early in the war, as a consequence:

2) Japan will have to defend the home islands from air attack.

3) Japan has a large number of manufacturing sites that will need to be defended both night and day.

4) In order to perform 3) I would estimate Japan will need at least 500 fighters permanently assigned (based on 10 bases with 25 defenders in two phases: night and day).

5) Japan cannot assign 500 fighters away from other theatres and expect to compete with British and US airpower anywhere. US doesn't even nee to use those heavies - they could just sit there and oblige the Japanese to keep half their airforce at home.

6) Even then the Allies will have the whip hand - they can attack or not, send in strong sweeps against strung out defenders, send in concentrated 4E raids against a single base to overwhelm defenders etc etc etc

It's just a no win situation for Japan that is only going to end one way.

Oh and 7) Attempting to keep the base permanently closed vs US and USSR fighters will just have the effect of bleeding the IJ airforce white.

Per 6 - the Allies don't have any sweepers that can reach from there to Japan except for P-38s until the later Corsair models come, along with the P-47N and P-51D. Until then, they're stuck at 10 hexes (P-47D25) or less (P-47D2 is 9). And the Allies don't get very many P-38s until, well - later.

I think your estimate of required fighters is far too high. The USAAF does not have that many bombers yet, and does not get that many more in 1942. They would also be without fighter cover and without sweep support. Protection can also be concentrated on the bases that matter (of which there are, not the 40-point Resource/LI centers. Would losing those hurt Japan? It would sting, but that's it.

I just scrolled back up to the map. That's 11 hexes from Sapporo - barely within normal range of B-25s. But B-25s are far more fragile than B-17s and B-24s, and the pools are not all that deep until, again, later.

But it doesn't matter how many he gets later if Lowpe can prevent the base from being within USAAF fighter transfer range and then maintain air superiority (the latter of which he should be able to accomplish). With only Soviet fighters to provide cover, they'd rapidly run out of said fighters. At that point, the bombers are at Lowpe's mercy. If Obvert launches a bunch of raids, they'll be damaged and then on the ground without adequate fighter cover, where they can then be destroyed.


I'm not suggesting this isn't something that needs to be dealt with, but it IS something that can be dealt with without too much difficulty from the current situation.

Whilst most of what you say is true at this instant, it does not address the original point of Lowpe's post which was that the game would not go beyond 1943. It's March 42 at the moment. There is no realistic way that he can defend the home islands for the next 21 months.

One point that I would take issue with is keeping the Manchurian base out of US fighter range. How are you going to do that when the P38E has a transfer range of 50 hexes (IIRC) once it gets it's mid 42 drop tanks. That's nearly to India. Transfer a group change plane type, rinse repeat with the next. If nothing else would require an HR. So long as Obvert covers the base in the short term with Mig's, which outclass anything Japan has for months, then the US can take the strain in the longer term.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Yakface


Whilst most of what you say is true at this instant, it does not address the original point of Lowpe's post which was that the game would not go beyond 1943. It's March 42 at the moment. There is no realistic way that he can defend the home islands for the next 21 months.

One point that I would take issue with is keeping the Manchurian base out of US fighter range. How are you going to do that when the P38E has a transfer range of 50 hexes (IIRC) once it gets it's mid 42 drop tanks. That's nearly to India. Transfer a group change plane type, rinse repeat with the next. If nothing else would require an HR. So long as Obvert covers the base in the short term with Mig's, which outclass anything Japan has for months, then the US can take the strain in the longer term.

But how many P-38E's do the Allies get? How many P-40E's? How many Wildcats and Buffalos and Hurricanes (something has to do the lifting that the USAAF would be leaving behind)?

I had not thought of changing the plane type once there, but again... the Allies do not have any sort of competitive plane in any kind of abundance until the middle of 1943 (the Hellcat, really) unless this scenario has buffed the replacement rates.

[Lowpe]

Allies don't need to sweep, a night bombing campaign will do it. They need only a few Mig squadrons to protect the base until all the AA arrives. No amount of Japanese night bombing will accomplish anything then. It is a solid 2 months before the first Nicks arrive, followed shortly by A6M3 and the following month by the Tojo.

Every non Soviet base the Soviets have taken has gone to US control asap. Hailar will be next. Only 28 hexes from there to Lanchow. Current Yankee base is only 31 hexes to Sian.

I will fight it, but I fully expect to lose best case 30% of my industry before 1942 is over. Probably some key plane research too. Not a single port will be safe from a night naval strike although some will be at extended range. Perhaps vehicles, engines...Probably in the neighborhood of 20K victory points lost by the end of 1942.

The only hope would be the Allies not prosecuting a night bombing campaign effectively. Do you believe that level of ineptness of Obvert? That he wouldn't stuff that base full of Soviet engineers and AA and Migs? Currently most of the British bomber force is at Lanchow and north. They will be doing night bombing shortly I bet, just waiting on getting AA there (which it already might be) and a level or two added to the runway.

Will two US bases connected by rail, be able to use the trains back and forth even thru Soviet territory?