The Accidental War Obvert vs Lowpe

[Lowpe]

Ship losses

[Lowpe]

Looking pretty good here. Well, ok, that is sarcasm. Unfortunately, I am playing someone that understands Japan. The industry has been targeted since Dec 8th, 1941.

[Lowpe]

Just how bad is it Lowpe? Pretty bad.[:D]

[Zecke]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Just how bad is it Lowpe? Pretty bad.[:D]

jajaj..keep BAD, as the DEVS¡

[Encircled]

Ouch!

Hang in there though, you will be able to sweep him from the sea and skies (and hell, land as well!) soonish (for a certain period of time at least!)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Looking pretty good here. Well, ok, that is sarcasm. Unfortunately, I am playing someone that understands Japan. The industry has been targeted since Dec 8th, 1941.

Thoughts. Use them as you see fit. You know my limitations. [;)]


OK, not NEARLY as bad as I had feared. Your industry is in better shape than you portray. [;)]
You are only down 144 LI and 65 HI. Not good, but given your start, fat better than hoped. I wouldn't do any HI repairs, but I might (when supply is FAR better) do a little increase on some HI that is as far from the SOV as you can. Kyushu likely. Whatever you do needs to be completed before 9/42 or the ROI isn't worth it.

Supply: you're skittering on the edge of crashing. I know it is hard to think, but you are going to have to ease off of your AC expansion. If 33 AC/day won't work, nothing will. Hopefully of those 33, +20 AC/Day are fighters (Oscar c and A6M). If so, you are already at early '44 production rates for fighters, triple his production rate. To get this far, he has to have stripped every air group from every location and moved them to the front. The good news here is that he has expended PP's where normally these are used for buying out ID's ... so he is going to be ~6 weeks or so late on one of the marine ID's ... not huge, but something.

You haven't expanded NSY/MSY and I wouldn't plan on it. I would just get engine factories balanced to your AC builds and use the balance of your supply production to get your supply pools built back up to ~1.25 M at Tokyo, +3M in the empire. It will take ~100 days to do that right now ... 120 days if you do that HI increase I mention.

Rest: I know it is hard when you are on the edge, BUT 25% of your A6M and +30% of your overall fighter losses are Ops losses. You should be able to get that down to 10-15%, that would be ~200 more fighters right now. Granted, I am being simplistic, other losses would happen. Still... increase your rest on all fighter units by 10%. Combat outcomes won't change much, but the ops losses will drop at bases where there is sufficient AV present to repair.

Pilots: your exp isn't bad and you have a surplus of pilots in most groups. Your numbers WILL overcome him soon.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Looking pretty good here. Well, ok, that is sarcasm. Unfortunately, I am playing someone that understands Japan. The industry has been targeted since Dec 8th, 1941.

Thoughts. Use them as you see fit. You know my limitations. [;)]


OK, not NEARLY as bad as I had feared. Your industry is in better shape than you portray. [;)]
You are only down 144 LI and 65 HI. Not good, but given your start, fat better than hoped. I wouldn't do any HI repairs, but I might (when supply is FAR better) do a little increase on some HI that is as far from the SOV as you can. Kyushu likely. Whatever you do needs to be completed before 9/42 or the ROI isn't worth it.

Supply: you're skittering on the edge of crashing. I know it is hard to think, but you are going to have to ease off of your AC expansion. If 33 AC/day won't work, nothing will. Hopefully of those 33, +20 AC/Day are fighters (Oscar c and A6M). If so, you are already at early '44 production rates for fighters, triple his production rate. To get this far, he has to have stripped every air group from every location and moved them to the front. The good news here is that he has expended PP's where normally these are used for buying out ID's ... so he is going to be ~6 weeks or so late on one of the marine ID's ... not huge, but something.

You haven't expanded NSY/MSY and I wouldn't plan on it. I would just get engine factories balanced to your AC builds and use the balance of your supply production to get your supply pools built back up to ~1.25 M at Tokyo, +3M in the empire. It will take ~100 days to do that right now ... 120 days if you do that HI increase I mention.

Rest: I know it is hard when you are on the edge, BUT 25% of your A6M and +30% of your overall fighter losses are Ops losses. You should be able to get that down to 10-15%, that would be ~200 more fighters right now. Granted, I am being simplistic, other losses would happen. Still... increase your rest on all fighter units by 10%. Combat outcomes won't change much, but the ops losses will drop at bases where there is sufficient AV present to repair.

Pilots: your exp isn't bad and you have a surplus of pilots in most groups. Your numbers WILL overcome him soon.

Thanks, Pax...insightful as always.

I am running rest for fighters...just have to fly from damaged bases to protect oil/industry. Night ops are tough too, and I have to fly them.

Engines aren't as bad as it appears, since I am draining the old styles down to 0. Those planes can be found a use for plus the boxes are wonky....For whatever reason, the engines, and plane build box on the tracker database has never ever worked for me. I am making 11.26 IJA planes per day and 8.24 IJNAF. I think the box shows the amount of planes building in r&d too, but I never bothered to try and problem solve it or maybe it counts twin engine twice and four engine four times.

Repairs almost universally off, except oil and r&d. Some damaged plane factories are off (Harbin). Debating slowing down Merchant builds, but I fear the industry being wrecked, and would like to still make progress on the baby carriers. Perhaps pointless...either way.

Supply stockpile is no longer Tokyo, but Nagasaki. I think Tokyo has around 45,000. She will burn.

[Lowpe]

Turn is done and back to Obvert...

I don't have anything stronger than a destroyer to challenge the big reinforcement fleet to Singers so it will get thru...Palembang is protected by 2 destroyers and one TB. Soon the Allies will bombard, and I don't have anything to stop them with for a while.

4th Division continues to be flown into Palembang, and Palembang has plentiful supply but no anti tank capability other than AA guns and some inherent artillery. 4th Division will help here.

Trying to save my cruisers.

Assembling all my tanks for a big tank battle with the advancing Soviets in the clear terrain. He has 3000 AFVs coming at me. Still 4 months from assembling 1st and 2nd Tank Divisions.

[witpqs]

Fear not! Obvert hasn't been posting so I have defected! I stole the plans to a secret Allied weapon called... The Death Star!!! I shall load the plans into this droid and send it to you. As soon as my wife stops making phone calls on it. Never mind, that will take too long. I'll just describe it to you. Do you have a pencil? Good! First, it's really, really big.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Fear not! Obvert hasn't been posting so I have defected! I stole the plans to a secret Allied weapon called... The Death Star!!! I shall load the plans into this droid and send it to you. As soon as my wife stops making phone calls on it. Never mind, that will take too long. I'll just describe it to you. Do you have a pencil? Good! First, it's really, really big.

Many monkeys died to bring us this information[:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

If he really is counter-invading and trying to maintain a foothold on Sumatra indefinitely (the only reason I can think he would risk it), you may be able to prolong the amphibious stalemate phase of the Pacific war by trapping and destroying the LCUs (and maybe some planes) that he sends there. It may take some time, so don't shoestring or rush such an effort.

He is not trying to maintain a foothold, he is trying to retake it, and reinforce Singers.

I just don't see how, medium term, this is sustainable for him. Unless your forces are drastically reduced, there is a high chance he is throwing good money after bad, so to speak.

He's trying to frontload everything and knock you out early.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Looking pretty good here. Well, ok, that is sarcasm. Unfortunately, I am playing someone that understands Japan. The industry has been targeted since Dec 8th, 1941.

You can still see 1944. [;)] You're the one that didn't want to undo the Soviet activation!

Since you're not going to see 1945 anyway, there's little point in stockpiling any significant amount of HI. You're just looking for supplies from those factories. It may even make sense to turn them off later to save fuel for ships - if you have them afloat, that is.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

... Rest: I know it is hard when you are on the edge, BUT 25% of your A6M and +30% of your overall fighter losses are Ops losses. You should be able to get that down to 10-15%, that would be ~200 more fighters right now. Granted, I am being simplistic, other losses would happen. Still... increase your rest on all fighter units by 10%. Combat outcomes won't change much, but the ops losses will drop at bases where there is sufficient AV present to repair...

I've never subscribed to the common view that rest is essential to keeping a lid on operational losses. Of far greater impact is the distance flown. Constant shifting of air units from airfield to another, particularly when flying close to the aircraft's maximum range or to underdeveloped airfields, increases operational losses. As does flying operations beyond normal range. Flying back successfully a damaged aircraft is greatly impacted by both the distance and the pilot's experience level.

Lowpe is already limiting his fighter units to a 40% CAP level. Dropping that down to 30% will result in having insufficient fighters up and air-to-air losses will probably increase. In general terms if Lowpe has to drop CAP down to 30% then he can't afford to be fighting and should just stand down his air units.

I would increase the CAP level to a minimum of 50% with certain units capable of 60-70% for 2-3 days at a time. Definitely need to have 133% of pilot TOE assigned to the fighter units. If Lowpe can't overstack the pilot roster, then that again is a strong indication that he can't afford to conduct these air operations and the nits should be stood down. Plus absolutely no flying beyond normal range. If that means no sweeps then so be it. In fact if Lowpe is encountering the Migs only when sweeping and not when defending Japanese air space then that is a very good reason to just eliminate sweeps.

Alfred

[Lowpe]

March 13, 1942

I-165 strikes....the Guadalupe is no Takao! There, I probably doomed Takao to being hit by torps this day.[;)]

[Lowpe]

Almost a twofer.

[Lowpe]

Nights over, and on the approach to Palembang...British cruisers sink a destroyer.

[Lowpe]

Soviets are relentless attackers. Another base for the Americans. Maybe not, as it is not on a rail network to others. 60 Sallies bombed these guys for two days in the open and did basically no damage.

[Lowpe]

No good.

[Lowpe]

Manchuko

[Lowpe]

It is critical here. British tanks one hex away from shocking into Palembang. Only 1 Destroyer and 1 Torpedo Boat guard the entrance. Allies can reamr at Singers or Batavia. Over three hundred Allied fighters, plus British Carriers...and they have an advantage on the ground at Sumatra.

Plus 40 cargo and support ships in Palembang loaded with supplies.