The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Flicker]

Re: my previous comment "basa", I could try to pretend it was Spanish or Latin but it was bigger fingers than keypad.

[Canoerebel]

1/10/45

Southeast Asia: The Allies are making slow progress in Malaya....and Musashi TF was sighted near Groot Natoena again today. I can't imagine John will raid up towards Hong Kong. At this point, he may conclude that his best option is to bombard and bomb the Allied spearhead at Chumphon.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Flicker

CR, thanks for the pictures of the backwaters; you have been busy. In another AAR you mentioned that you like for Port Moresby to have 'broad shoulders'; any plans for Terapo? Other backwater basa?

I'm excited by the prospect of early Soviet activation. Can you provide some of your thoughts on how an amphibious assault might play out - targets, forces available, enemy resistance?

Any further invasions in the Coral Sea/Solomons theater would pretty much require Death Star to be present. It's unlikely that circumstances will exist in which there is more to be gained by having DS in that theater than somewhere else, much closer to Japan (or Singapore).

On the outside chance that Victory Points really become an issue, I have an Aussie division at Port Moresby prepping for Rabaul. If I were to seriously consider triggering that invasion, I'd likely scrounge around to find other troops to take nearby, lightly held or vacant bases.

As for amphibious ops, there are possibilities out there:'

1. Patani, on the Malaya coast. This would unhinge John's defenses in Malaya and expedite a move on points-rich Singapore. The troops are ready. The assaults ships are abundantly ready and nearby. The only question I have is whether it's worth the time to diver DS down that way. There's so much more to be done around the Home Islands.

2. Korea: Possibly. Troops are prepped. Assault ships are abundantly available. But do I need to fiddle with an invasion if John's defenses collapse, so that a ground campaign is just as effective and efficient? I don't know that's the case, yet, but it's what I'm monitoring.

3. Hokkaido: Remotely possible. Troops are prepped. Assault ships are abundantly available. But I just don't foresee a need to go that far to do something. I can probably better use those troops in China, Manchuria and Korea. But the option is available if circumstances change.

4. Balikpapan/Kendari/Java/etc. The troops are prepped. But the same thinking applies: hard to justify diverting DS down here when it's currently doing so much against the Home Islands.

[Canoerebel]

1/10/45

Fancy Pants: Lots going on elsewhere - and it's fun and its important - but not as important as China. And Shanghai is cracking.

[Lowpe]

Allied CAP just gets so efficient late game, and Japan will pay a price for any air strike. 50 fresh Corsairs at the proper altitude will really chew into any attack if John decides to go there again.

Allied ships are super tough. So the combination of the two...

You should really come out ahead down there vp wise, no matter what Japan does I think.

[jwolf]

How difficult -- or not -- do you expect the crossing of the Yangtze to be?

[BillBrown]

At Pago Pago I would guess you should batten the hatches, I expect John to attack at least one more time.
Since he sank some good TKs there, he will be sure he can sink more with no real consequence.

[Canoerebel]

I don't expect it to be difficult. I think John had his best troops defending Shanghai and Hangchow and vicinity. He's been unable (or unwilling, a different thing entirely) to bring in good reinforcements that might've stabilized the situation. To me, it seems likely that contest hard this side of the Yangtze would've been a higher priority than fighting on the far side. So, as I read things, it's likely that he's hurting for troops at present.

Of course, I may be wrong! Perhaps he has fresh armies ready to go. I'll find out.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown
At Pago Pago I would guess you should batten the hatches, I expect John to attack at least one more time.
Since he sank some good TKs there, he will be sure he can sink more with no real consequence.

I hope that's the case.

Now: Should I be actively working to bring about a carrier engagement given the number of aircraft the two sides have?

I want to at least have the option, especially if John blunts the tip of his spear attacking Pago Pago. He can fly in new squadrons from Ndeni, probably; but I think there's a decent chance he won't - that he'll rely on what he has.

I have good NavSearch, so I can monitor the conditions and decide, when the time comes, if the equation works out.

I also have lots of naval air squadrons at island bases, allowing quick reinforcements.

I'm configuring my carriers to be heavy on fighters and to carry some SBDs. If I get a crack at the AOs, I want dive bombers to handle the strikes rather than Avengers. The Avengers will be waiting on the island airfields, to stage in to the carriers if a carrier battle seems imminent.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

How difficult -- or not -- do you expect the crossing of the Yangtze to be?

CR can easily put together an amphib invasion at Shanghai and hit the first port on the other side of the Yangtze - Tungchow. I think he already has a unit in the hex west of Nanking trying to ford the river to the NE or NW.

[MakeeLearn]

So... on which of your ships will the the surrender documents be signed?

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/10/45

Fancy Pants: Lots going on elsewhere - and it's fun and its important - but not as important as China. And Shanghai is cracking.

Nothing is as fun as Shanghai Crackn' [;)]

[Canoerebel]

yes, 5th Indian Division and 713th Flame Tank Battalion will cross the river tomorrow, facing four beat up units (unless John reinforces tonight). This crossing takes place several hexes WSW of Nanking.

[BillBrown]

What other ships do you have in the Bennington and Randolf TF? It could make a difference on how much AA you can put up.

[Canoerebel]

I have three Fletchers and a modern CLAA. Two other Fletchers are nearby, but steaming ahead in hopes of intercepting the enemy oilers.

It's not much. I wish I had more. But in some ways I'm lucky to have that much! These carriers were fresh in from construction. Sometimes I only give new carriers DE escorts until they arrive at a "port of assembly."

CVE Commencement Bay also has but three Fletchers for escort.

Down south, CVE Manila Bay is making her way north, trying to thread a needle, with APDs as escorts (in an Escort TF).

And down near Tahiti, CVE Tracker (RN) has four DEs as escorts.

I do have a bunch of DDs at Pago Pago. BB Arkansas is fleeing south from PP, escorted by three DEs.

Well to the west are BBs Missouri, Texas and New York, always with rag-tag escorts.

The problem is that these TFs are spread all over the place.

So it's largely up to a TF comprised of two CV, one CLAA, and three (or maybe five) DDs.

[Mark VII]

The loss of at least 42 IJN a/c over PagoPago helps your plan. More PP raids should whittle his airfleet even more. Put out the bait

[Lovejoy]

Since John3rd is fond of his navy, bagging a few carriers might throw him off his game a bit!

Just my two cents: I'd have the other two DDs combine with the CVs. With the screen so thin, you might be needing all the extra AA you can get.

Good Hunting!

[Canoerebel]

Those DDs are an important scouting party. I'm concerned about the possibility of John having a bushwhack - a stout CV force to the rear, hoping for an opportunity just like this. It's unlikely - it's not his style - so I'd put the odds at 15%. Still, it's comforting to have good NavSearch and a scouting force. Also, those DDS might get a shot at his AOs. At some point, almost certainly prior to any possible carrier clash with his Pago Pago raiders, I'll combine them with the carrier TF.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As for amphibious ops, there are possibilities out there:'

1. Patani, on the Malaya coast. This would unhinge John's defenses in Malaya and expedite a move on points-rich Singapore. The troops are ready. The assaults ships are abundantly ready and nearby. The only question I have is whether it's worth the time to diver DS down that way. There's so much more to be done around the Home Islands.

2. Korea: Possibly. Troops are prepped. Assault ships are abundantly available. But do I need to fiddle with an invasion if John's defenses collapse, so that a ground campaign is just as effective and efficient? I don't know that's the case, yet, but it's what I'm monitoring.

3. Hokkaido: Remotely possible. Troops are prepped. Assault ships are abundantly available. But I just don't foresee a need to go that far to do something. I can probably better use those troops in China, Manchuria and Korea. But the option is available if circumstances change.

4. Balikpapan/Kendari/Java/etc. The troops are prepped. But the same thinking applies: hard to justify diverting DS down here when it's currently doing so much against the Home Islands.

I would think the most VPs per buck would result from a Korea move among those choices. That should hasten the downfall on China's Eastern Seaboard and the two armies would meet in Manchuria. Plus it gives you a great B-24 and B-29 platform against Japan proper.

At Pago Pago, it's interesting that you didn't disband those TFs (or were they on the way?). That would make me suspicious that they were bait, but perhaps that subtlety could be lost on your opponent.

Good luck!

Cheers,
CC

[Canoerebel]

1/11/45

KB East: Enemy combat ships flagged by Mikuma raid Pago Pago. My destroyers don't screen well, giving John's ships a crack at my interior defenses, which are mainly DEs. The DEs don't handle combat well (I learned something here). I lose 10 of them. But they soaked up a lot of enemy ammo.

John knows there's a lot of shipping disbanded in port. I left it right there, hoping he'll order a carrier strike tomorrow. That's the most important thing: that KB remain on station one more day, no matter the cost to Allied shipping at PP. I have enough fighters to make any carrier sortie very painful for him and useful for me going forward. But does he have the ships and ammo to bombard? My four DDs and one new one arriving tonight will try to provide some defense.

Over to the west, CVE Manila Bay is flying battle streamers. In the spirit of HMS Ulysses (Alistair Maclean novel) charging to it's death at the end of that great book, this unlikely ship is moving at flank speed, hoping to survive but moreso hoping to work an intercept of John's oiler or, at a minimum, lead him to conclude that I'm scrambling to come up with something, anything, to strike.

For Bennington and Randolph are very close to having the angle now. See next post.