The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

1/21/45

Fancy Pants: The real seat of the war. I saved it for last because the possibility of an IJ move into SoPac in 1945 may be a lot more interesting to the Peanut Gallery than a ground war in Asia.

[Canoerebel]

1/22/45

KB East: moving towards Oz or up into the Coral Sea, most likely.

Other Enemy Carriers: Old KB Central is in the Pacific well north of the DEI, as though heading for the Home Islands. Other KBs are trailing in the Straits of Malacca. I suspect these TFs are bound for the Solomons, either to take control of the sea lanes/LOC or to implement a plan to invade late.

Allied Carriers: Moving to rendezvous with CVE Manila Bay somewhere north of Fiji. Glen got 4/4 detection.

Due Diligence: Following today's exercise in evaluating SoPac security in light of a possible desperate but committed late-war IJ offensive to harvest VP, I looked at Hawaii and even the West Coast. Pearl looks good with 260 AV behind 9 forts. West Coast has a sizeable air force sufficient to handle any concerted effort to bomb industry (either via KB raid or via late invasion of Canadian bases).

Other Impacts: I know the location of many enemy carriers and carrier TFs but not all of them. I think the bulk are bound for the Solomons or possibly the Home Islands. I don't think there's much if anything left in the DEI, though I'm not yet positive. But Allied ops to move on Timor and Port Blair are underway.

[Canoerebel]

1/22/45

Fancy Pants: The Flame Tanks are now the point of the spear, beginning the sprint into the planes. Important attack near Nanking tomorrow should break the main force into the plains.

[paullus99]

The historical comparisons to the Richmond Campaign vs. Hood's march into Tennessee are quite striking.

While you tighten your grip around the Home Islands (and quite honestly, annihilate the Japanese positions in China), John is off running around the periphery in areas which will have no material affect on the war.

Incredibly interesting to watch.

[Canoerebel]

It's a lot of fun. John is flipping turns at a crazy rate - the highest level of interest and energy he's had since the Celebes counter-invasion a year ago.

I'm pretty sure he's working a strong SoPac notion. I think that's what has him so energized. The second most likely possibility is that he's recalling most of KB to defend the Home Islands. I'm watching for both.

[JohnDillworth]

Just checked back in after a few days and looked at the SW Pacific maps and was wondering if you guys restarted in 1943! Good moves on Johns part I suppose. Would have been a real PIA 6-12 months ago

[JohnDillworth]

Local Ginko key looked at the calendar and panicked

[DW]

An operation in SPac would fit with JIII style. That would be very similar to his late invasion of India in your last game.

And, if I recall correctly, JIII really put his forces out on a limb with respect to fuel. Had you gone for him in that game, you'd have been fighting a KB with empty fuel tanks.

If he does move more force into the SPac area, do you think you could slip DS away from the Chinese coast and interpose it between JIII carrier task forces and their likely lines of egress?

I'm thinking... Get between him and his fuel.

[Canoerebel]

I think that gingko either shot its wad or blew its coat.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: DW

An operation in SPac would fit with JIII style. That would be very similar to his late invasion of India in your last game.

And, if I recall correctly, JIII really put his forces out on a limb with respect to fuel. Had you gone for him in that game, you'd have been fighting a KB with empty fuel tanks.

If he does move more force into the SPac area, do you think you could slip DS away from the Chinese coast and interpose it between JIII carrier task forces and their likely lines of egress?

I'm thinking... Get between him and his fuel.

If John puts a hammer-lock on SoPac, steaming KB around, I'll shift all the merchantmen to the west side of Oz. Then, supply will come up from Capetown to Perth and from Perth to Boela. That'll mess him up good. I'll also bring Death Star down to DEI to escort the next big slug of supply to China. That should be in about three weeks, maybe less.

It is unlikely I'll go hunting for KB. It's hard to catch a rabbit that's skittish and that doesn't wish to be caught. I'd expend a lot of fuel and time in the effort, probably to little effect. Unless something changes, I still think I'm better off focusing on Korea, the Home Islands, and maybe Malaya.

[Canoerebel]

My biggest challenge right now is managing supply - not from the aspect of John's shenanigans but from juggling China.

I have 500k supply on Formosa and 300k on Luzon. I've been feeding some of this to coastal China to fund air ops out of Ningpo, but it gets sucked down fast. So I'm going to have to prioritize in complicated, convoluted ways that are interesting to me and perhaps to logistics buffs the world over, all six of them.

My highest priority right now is the pending invasion of Korea. I probably want to bring 150k supply with me, as a down payment on what will come in later. That should be enough to handle the invasion and perhaps a little expansion. It won't be enough to handle air ops early on, at least on a large scale. But that'll be a priority later, when the next slug comes in.

I'll also need a bit of supply for the Hainan Island invasion. Not much, because I plan to withdraw all my troops once the island is secure. John probably doesn't have much there, and what he does have will be at the mercy of Allied air.

Anyway, to fund these invasion and other routine activities, I'm going to dial down the bombing campaign a good bit for the next few weeks.

Overland flow of supply through China is definitely adequate for ground unit operations. It doesn't look like it will be sufficient to handle air ops. I'd rather not drop supply into China to fund air ops, because it'll have a tendency to flow away to all manner of places. Korea will be much more efficient, because I'll have a bridgehead that will "contain" my supply - not allow it to migrate. So Korea will definitely become the focal point of the air war, going forward.

I'll set up LST convoys from Saigon/Bangkok up to China. That's why I want Hainan Island - that's the last holdout for John anywhere along the route. With that gone, there will be good security.

Finally, as mentioned above, I may shift my main LOC from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, if John gets too boisterous.

I think we're heading towards a crescendo of events - from both sides.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



I think we're heading towards a crescendo of events - from both sides.

COWBELL SOLO!!!!

[BillBrown]

We need more COWBELL

[Canoerebel]

From John: "You know…IF you had gone from your lodgement in China direct to the Home Islands this game would be over.  Now, they are starting to look tougher and tougher."

He likes to drop comments like that every now and then.

What I want to ask him, but won't: You mean you should have lost more quickly than you are losing?

 

[Canoerebel]

1/23/45

KB East: John's grand tour of SoPac may be winding down....but that's what I thought a week ago.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/45

Timor: Allies are working a little op to get a lodgment on Timor and working a big op to get supply from Oz to Boela. John is trying to choke this by choking the Gulf of Carpentaria. He knows he's going to have to commit much more in a massive campaign, and I think he just might.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/45

Andaman Sea: Allies working several little angles here, hoping to one day approach Singapore...and hoping that perhaps the war won't last that long.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/45

Fancy Pants: The Japanese army in China appears on the verge of collapse.

[Canoerebel]

1/24/45

Fancy Pants: Allies take Kukong. Breakout into the plains continues. With supply flush, probing deliberate attacks at Hong Kong and Canton, tomorrow. The latter gives me a bit of trepidation.

A mass of enemy carriers is at the northern end of the Makassar Strait showing a NE heading. Will they continue or will John have second thoughts, given recent Allied moves against Timor and the Andamans?

Does he really have his eye on SoPac or are his carriers homeward bound to serve as guardsmen? I dunno but I have to allow for both plus other possibilities.

[Canoerebel]

1/24/45

DEI: Lots of enemy carriers egressing....but will they really leave? I should know tomorrow.