Wedge Donovan Wins the War: Apbarog(A) vs Aurorus(J) DBB-B

[apbarog]

24 Feb 42

Near Milne Bay, Dutch sub KIX spots 3 destroyers and hits DD Michishio with a torpedo. Heavy damage reported.

Near Cam Ranh Bay, sub Stingray spots an xAK task force heading toward Soerabaja. xAK Tuyama Maru is hit with 2 torpedoes, one of which is a dud. 2 vehicles are reported as lost, and no other devices. Could be a tank unit from Port Arthur.

Usual bombing in China. Batavia also. Batavia gets an artillery attack again. The base would probably fall with a deliberate attack. The enemy is moving in more troops first.

Buna falls to the 84th Naval Guard.

I moved 2 B-17 squadrons to Rangoon. They will bomb Victoria Point's port, hoping to catch the AKEs recently spotted passing Phuket.

The lights are back on in the Solomons. I snuck in a seaplane support ship into an undisclosed base in the Solomons, and moved Catalinas in. 2 task forces are spotted at Tulagi. No sign on anything moving toward Koumac.

Americal Division is assembling in New Zealand. It is partly prepped for Noumea, but I could move it to Noumea to attack Koumac. But should I? Has Aurorus moved to Koumac to get my attention? KB has been missing awhile now, and could be anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up back at Singapore to support a big push to Ceylon and/or India. But right now, anything is possible.

My recon continues to be poor at Koumac. I've seen 9 or 10 units there, but with poor recon quality, the number of men spotted has been low, and probably incorrectly low. B-17s from Brisbane will try to bomb Koumac today. P-39s from Noumea will sweep. Zeros were pulled out of Koumac after my last sweeps. Unknown if they are back.

[apbarog]

25 Feb 42

Usual bombing in China. Batavia.

13 or so B-17s flew from Rangoon to bomb Victoria Point's port, hunting AKEs. 11 Zeros were on CAP. One bomber was lost on the way home, and no ships were hit, nor was the port itself.

2 squadrons of 42 Oscars each swept Pegu. One squadron of AVG was on CAP at Rangoon, but range limited to just Rangoon, so no leakers to be caught this time. My choice is either to load up Rangoon with fighters to defend against huge numbers, or not defend Rangoon every day. With an enemy surface group somewhere south of Rangoon, and AKEs to support them, I decide not to lose planes on the ground to a bombardment. When I defend, it will be unexpectedly. Allied fighter pools are very limited at this time. If I'm going to defend something in force, it has to be something important. Rangoon is minimally defended on the ground. The only thing keeping the enemy from taking it is the speed of its advance.

Sarawak on Borneo is lost to the enemy.

Carriers spotted again in the Solomons, intentions unknown. May be a reaction from Rabaul when I started spotting ships around Tulagi all of a sudden. This doesn't rule out a big push in the Indian Ocean, but it does mean that all of KB isn't there.

Supply being pushed into Noumea, and lots of subs around Koumac.

SigInt shows part of the enemy 33rd Infantry Division on Java. Previous SigInt said that it was prepping for Rangoon.

[apbarog]

26 Feb 42

Koumac is swept by 22 P40Es from Noumea. No CAP. 13 B-17s from Brisbane hit the port and airfield. ACM Tama Maru #8 is sunk. Minor damage to the port and airfield. A sub is spotted at Koumac. Koumac was mined just recently by Argonaut, but no indication of anything hitting mines yet.

17 Bettys from Rabaul are back on port bombing duty in the Solomons. Today's target is Rennell Island. Nothing to hit here.

Enemy carriers moved to the SW, now SE of Milne Bay. US sub was spotted by Vals and has 10/10 DL. No sign of a bigger move toward Koumac.

Lexington and Saratoga are due a 21 day refit on March 1. I took a close look at whether I could launch a Marshalls invasion before this refit would be over, and the answer is no. Not ready yet. They will do the refit and we'll look at things again then.

[apbarog]

27 Feb 42

Sallys bomb troops at Medan.

14 B-17s bomb Koumac's airfield and port, but thunderstorms prevent all but the slightest damage to the airfield. Koumac went to size 3 airfield today. Noumea is almost a 3. Lots of enemy engineers at Koumac, no doubt.

I guessed right at Rangoon. The 2 groups of 42 Oscars each that swept Prome today swept Rangoon, looking for the AVG. None found.

Enemy carriers are headed south from the Solomons. Other shipping scattered, and nothing notable seen other than the carriers, but it's what I may not be seeing that is the problem. The carriers could easily strike Noumea tomorrow. I decided to leave my ships there that are unloading. Some parts of a couple of units are still on ships. They are certainly vulnerable. I move out the recon unit from Noumea, and move in some extra fighters. 3 fighter groups on CAP for today. Lots of friendly subs around Koumac, just hoping for a shot at a carrier.

Americal Division was formed today at Auckland. It is very inexperienced, and could use some time there for training. It may not have the time. For now, it stays. The first regiment of the 1st US Marine Division has appeared on the West Coast. It is highly trained and has ships waiting to board tomorrow. Fast ships for a fast trip to the South Pacific.

[MakeeLearn]

what's going on at Erromango?

[apbarog]

Catalinas flying search from Erromango, supported by a ship there, an AVP I think. I put them there to help search to the north and be a bit hidden. It's not obvious that they are based somewhere other than Noumea, so they aren't being hunted like the Catalinas I have in the Solomons.

[apbarog]

28 Feb 42

Near Noumea, sub Salmon fires 4 torpedoes at RO-67, but misses.

Mine explosion heard. DD Minegumo hit one of Argonaut's mines at Koumac. It is reported to be on fire, but isn't spotted during the day.

I-18 fires 2 torpedoes at small ship AMc Bunting as it leaves Pago Pago. One torpedo hits and sinks the tiny minesweeper. It was part of a bigger task force of small, slow ships. Some YOs, AMc's, etc.

The interesting mystery task force that I've tracked for weeks is spotted nearing Koumac. Sub Thresher fires 4 torpedoes at AV Sanyo Maru, but misses. The AV is the ship that was noted on SigInt, and the unit loaded on it weeks ago was also listed. This is the exact task force that went east past Port Moresby, NE toward Buin, SE passing north of Tulagi. Then it disappeared for a bit, then reappeared near Milne Bay again. Now it's finally near Koumac.

South of Luganville, sub Dolphin fires 4 torpedoes at DD Hibiki, but misses. 3 heavy cruisers and 6 destroyers were spotted. During the day, 2 carrier task forces are seen in the area.

17 Bettys bomb Kirakira's port, looking for a seaplane support ship. There is one here. This is where it went a week or so ago. But the Bettys miss and the ship does not appear to have been spotted. I'll leave it here and hope that the hunt moves elsewhere.

A Chinese corp and HQ are eliminated near Pucheng. They've been holding out in the woods for awhile. A big stack of enemy is now freed up, with just one more unit holed up behind the lines. Then we shall see where the enemy attempts to break through the Chinese line.

Bandoeng on Java continues to become encircled. The Dutch base is mountainous, and has lots of supply. The fortification level is just a 1, not quite making it to level 2 when the bombing started, and has never stopped long enough to completely repair the damage.

The first enemy is now adjacent to an Allied unit in inland northern Thailand/Burma. I had hoped to move one hex to the east, just off trail, to help block the way to China, and invite a move past it into Burma, but the unit is out of time.

KB, or what I'll call KB, is now between Luganville and Koumac. 2 carrier task forces. Ships with parts of a unit will leave Noumea and run south, not completely unloaded. A small cargo task force with supply will stay and unload. 3 fighter squadrons continue to fly CAP. KB is 9 hexes from Noumea today, just far enough away that the ships were safe, today.

It's now March. 2 carriers and about 8 destroyers go into refit at Pearl Harbor. And the F4F-4 starts production.

[apbarog]

28 Feb 42 - Area around New Caledonia

[apbarog]

28 Feb 42 - Burma

[apbarog]

1 Mar 42

PC Atalanta went on ASW patrol near Brisbane, and immediately found RO-65, but couldn't hit it.

Donggala on Celebes is invaded. Some backfilling being done by the enemy.

Sub Sargo spots cruisers Mikuma and Mogami and some destroyers near Tavoy, but misses DD Duroshio with 2 torpedoes. Could be a run-in to Rangoon coming, or just protecting Tavoy. Aurorus does like to station a surface group just outside of bases he wants to protect, similar to stationing them one hex ahead of and along the threat axis of important task forces.

Bettys from Rabaul switch to bombing Stewart Island, looking for an AVP or such. None there.

Batavia is heavily bombed and lost to the enemy.

Same old bombing in China. With just one more corps being reduced near Nanchang, the targets are dwindling. Until a new offensive on the front line emerges.

I could have continued unloading ships with unit support at Noumea. KB seems to have moved back to the north or northwest of Koumac. No vis today, but plenty of sub detection levels.

I wonder if that transport group turned around, fearing the mines at Koumac, or if I just caught them on the way out.

Spent a good deal of time planning on the next couple of months. Hopefully we can start going on a bit of an offensive.

[apbarog]

2 Mar 42

DD Hokaze spots my newly laid minefield adjacent to Espiritu Santo, and sweeps 2 of the mines. No hits.

Sub Swordfish fires 2 torpedoes at DD Urakaze, spotting 2 other destroyers and CL Jintsu guarding the entrance to Port Moresby. One torpedo hits, and it's a dud.

Sub Dolphin spots DMS W-18 NE of Koumac, fires 2 torpedoes at the ship, and one hits. And it's a dud. The minesweeper is inbound to Koumac to sweep Argonaut's mines.

The last isolated Chinese corp gets hit by every bomber in the area.

21 Anns bomb the 13th Burma Rifles Battalion near Lashio. This is the unit in the path of the enemy coming up on the inland trail. No doubt a recon bombing.

B-17Ds fly from Brisbane to Koumac, at long range. Unfortunately, there are 57 Zeros on CAP today. They were moved into Koumac. 8 bombers are lost. The D models have more range than the E's, but less survivability. Time to do more upgrades.

Since I mined Koumac, an Allied surface bombardment is less expected. US cruisers will move south of Noumea in a few days and prepare for a bombardment. The mines will be swept by then anyhow.

In China, I have a Chinese HQ unit with no combat value blocking a rail line. Aurorus sent a small unit to clean it up, but the attacks were rarely causing any losses. So now a bunch of units arrived and attacked, but they are likewise having any affect. This is bothering me some, and I'll bet that Aurorus isn't happy about it. I wanted the unit to be a nuisance on the rail before it gets eliminated, but didn't expect it to be somewhat invincible. I will talk with Aurorus and see if I should do something like move it off of the road and forget about it.

Ground combat at 90,49 (near Pengpu)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 661 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 404

Defending force 1069 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 24

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 24 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Assaulting units:
56th Infantry Brigade
52nd Infantry Brigade
62nd Infantry Brigade
26th RGC Temp. Division

Defending units:
Lusu War Area

[BBfanboy]

That sub with 1/1 detection could have been spotted by a Glen. I wouldn't bet the farm that his Carriers are over there as opposed to all the places you have ships in motion.

Re: that odd attack result near Pengpu - I was playing head-to-head in the early going in China and noticed that a bunch of units (especially the RGC ones) have around 50 squads that are not disabled but seem to have no fighting strength (in spite of the AV). I put this down to not having been issued rifles yet or very low experience. All the units also had very poor leadership. Your opponent should look at the units in detail.
I also noted that HQ units are very hard to destroy despite having no AV. I thought maybe they were good at ducking, but I think I read that it was a bug that was addressed in the latest patch - not sure though.

[apbarog]

I talked with Aurorus, and he said that the 3 sizable units had just arrived in Strat mode and did not participate in the attack. Also, the RGC unit is weak, and that is the one attacking, so far.

I'm just guessing where the carriers were. They were just a bit to the east yesterday, and nothing seen elsewhere, including within my Catalina search.

[apbarog]

Also, I can't rule out that one or more divisions of KB are one of those "surface groups" to the north. The divisions have split, at times. Could be both by the sub to the west and one of the groups to the north.

Regardless, the same game plan is being executed. Filtering in parts of units and supply to Noumea. Careful movement of cruisers and destroyers, looking for an opportunity. Selective mining. Building up Noumea to hopefully get to the point to be able to sweep Koumac and bomb it.

Hold, for now. Hold Noumea, Suva, Pago Pago. Keep supply and fuel coming. Prepare for future actions elsewhere.

[apbarog]

3 Mar 42

I-175 misses xAK Timber Rush near Suva.

All of the mines at Koumac are swept, as the DMS TF spotted yesterday arrives. At least we got a destroyer.

SW of California, I-2 fires 2 torpedoes at huge xAP West Point. Both miss. West Point has half of a Marine Corp regiment loaded.

Near Tagula Island, not far from Milne Bay, Sub Pickerel fires 4 torpedoes at CV Akagi, but all miss. KB has moved NW from Koumac to get here. 2 carrier TFs are here, plus a transport TF. It is unknown where it will go from here, as I don't know where the transport TF came from. Most likely that the carriers met the transports here, and will escort them to Koumac. Less likely is that KB escorted an empty transport TF away from Koumac. Even less likely is that the transport TF loaded units from Koumac and are going elsewhere, with KB (India?). Finally, this could be the start of an invasion of NE Australia. Paranoia still reigns for the Allies.

Recon at Koumac continues to be poor. I've seen up to 10 units here, but the troop numbers have always been low for those numbers. I have a few B-17s at Norfolk Island attempting to fly recon to Koumac, but the airfield is just size 2, and the heavy bombers refuse to fly.

There's lots of shipping at Koumac today. The long-tracked transport TF is here. There was just over 50 Zeros here that ambushed my B-17s a couple of days ago. With so much shipping here, I'm sure they are still on CAP. I decide to switch things up at Noumea. 2 fighter squadrons are flown out to Australia, and replaced with divebombers. A fighter squadron will sweep Koumac, and probably get mauled, but hopefully fly first and tire out the CAP. Then P-39s will, hopefully, escort 2 divebomber squadrons to attack shipping at Koumac.

More detailed planning took place today, including noting specific transport shipping needed for a possible invasion in the next month. The ships are now on the move, going to where they need to go.

[apbarog]

4 Mar 42

Enemy DMS sweep mines at Batavia.

Near Rossel Island, near the enemy carrier TFs, Dutch sub O21 fires 4 torpedoes at AO Kyokuto Maru, but misses. AO Toho Maru also spotted. In the same area, S-40 is spotted but not hit with depth charges.

Usual bombing on Java and in China.

My naval strike on Koumac goes badly. The only thing that went correctly is that the P-39s did escort the bombers. However, the bombing strikes went in before the sweep, and the strike fragmented into 2 strikes.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Koumac at 113,156

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 57

Allied aircraft
A-24 Banshee x 2
P-39D Airacobra x 12
SBD-1 Dauntless x 17

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Banshee: 1 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 4 destroyed
SBD-1 Dauntless: 10 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Haguro

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x SBD-1 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

*************
Morning Air attack on TF, near Koumac at 113,156

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 51

Allied aircraft
A-24 Banshee x 10
P-39D Airacobra x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Banshee: 6 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
xAK Asosan Maru

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x A-24 Banshee releasing from 4000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
************
Then 22 P40Es sweep, and take about equal losses with the enemy.

No hits and lots of losses. 15 SBD-1s, 12 A-24s, 11 P40Es, and 10 P39s lost. 9 Zeros are destroyed. Costly but I have to continue to pressure Koumac and mix things up from time to time. More fighters are moved back in to CAP Noumea.

KB is moving back toward Koumac. With the AO TF spotted, KB could have refueled, as well as escorting more transports to New Caledonia.

Undertrained Americal Divison remains in New Zealand. I could ship them to Noumea. I will eventually, but hopefully in a push to take Koumac, not defend Noumea. It's a tough call, but I'll stand with what I have for now.

[apbarog]

5 Mar 42

I-20 fires 2 torpedoes at AM Vireo near Pago Pago, but misses, The sub isn't found. At Pago Pago, I-18 spots DD Le Triomphant and fires 2 torpedoes, but they miss. I fly in some Bolos trained in ASW. Pago Pago is hot with subs now.

Northwest of Koumac, Dutch sub O21 fires 4 torpedoes at DD Hibiki, but misses. KB is here, amongst other things, inbound for Koumac.

South of the Solomons, Searaven fires 2 torpedoes at PB Aso Maru #3, but misses. Patrol boats are escorting at least 2 xAKs here.

Anns bomb a Burmese unit inland, and then the unit, the 13th Burma Rifles Battalion, is almost eliminated by the enemy 5th Division. I moved some AVG to Burma and they will LRCAP the Burmese unit tomorrow. The enemy is definitely pushing to Burma from the most inland route.

Movement indicator gives the first hint to where the big enemy stack in China will go next. Movement is shown west, which rules out going to the closest rail line for a far northern deployment. Movement probably means an attack somewhere from the Changsha area to the south. A concentrated attack can break the line just about anywhere here. I will deploy air units back to China soon to combat this. A Brit recon unit has deployed to keep an eye on the big stack.

Supply is amazingly good in China, much better than my last game. I suspect that reducing my Burma troops allowed more supply to flow into China. Just a guess. I haven't flown any supply into China yet.

KB is nearing Koumac. There's already a cruiser TF there. More troops flowing in, I guess. I expect an enemy push on Noumea after these ships unload. There's already enough engineers there, judging by the airfield expansion.

[apbarog]

6 Mar 42 - Highlight

[BBfanboy]

Very highlight!
How many torps went off? With only one + ASE I would say only 25% chance she burns up and sinks. With two+ ASE - 60%. Three torps + ASE 95%.

[apbarog]

6 Mar 42

AM Cessnock is patrolling Pago Pago, and finds I-8 there. A few minor reports of damage to the sub.

Near the south coast of Japan, sub Skipjack spots SC Ch27 patrolling. 2 torpedoes miss. Skipjack has been working out of Manila, where there is plenty of fuel but no AS for support. I send Skipjack to Pearl Harbor to redeploy from there.

Sub Sealion spots cruisers and destroyers near Koumac, and for the second day in a row, DD Hibiki is attacked, but again, 4 torpedoes miss the ship. The same task force is later spotted by sub Thresher, only this time CV Soryu is spotted. 6 torpedoes are fired at the carrier. 2 torpedoes hit. The first hit reportedly caused an ammo storage explosion. The second hit was a dud. The ship is reported to be on fire, but no mention of damage or heavy damage.

I have a heavy sub presence north of New Caledonia, hoping that sooner or later, even low odds would pay off over time. Here's to hoping that the ship burns.

Aurorus guessed correctly in Burma today. The Burma battalion that was kicked back toward Taung Gyi has been being bombed by unescorted Anns. After the retreat, the unit was 4 units from an Allied airbase with support, so I flew in some of the AVG and put LRCAP over the unit. Well, both of the big Oscar units swept the hex today, with about 40 Oscars each. Only about 8 H81s were on LRCAP at the time, and 5 were lost to combat and the trip home. The unit heads back to India to regroup.

Kudat is captured by the enemy. The Brit base force that was at Jesselton retreated to here, but was eliminated today. I had pulled out a fragment of it by Catalinas long ago, and the fragment is now at a Western Australian base. Now it will rebuild.

It appears that Aurorus is all-in on Koumac. He probably plans on taking Noumea, but could be just defending Koumac in force. But probably attacking. Koumac can hold 45,000 men. Noumea can hold 35,000. Today I got SigInt that the enemy 4th Infantry Division was loaded on an xAP and headed to Koumac. It could already be there, as there are lots of ships there now, and KB protecting to the east.

What to do...

I know that Koumac was taken by an infantry regiment. I know that enemy armor was headed to Koumac. Now an infantry division. I see 15 units there now, but the recon remains very poor and I've never gotten a good look at the number of men there.

If there are multiple divisions, by 2 Marine regiments will have problems at Noumea. I do have a tank unit there, and just snuck in an AA unit. Some base support is there. The wildcard for me is the Americal Division at Auckland. I'm starting to think about maybe using some fast transport to get more troops in. I'm trying it with another base force in a couple of days. If I can unload and run away by daylight, I may stay away from KB. But fast transport doesn't always work as fast as you'd like, so we'll see.

As it is, I welcome a stalemate or Guadalcanal-like situation here. It keeps the enemy's focus here, not advancing somewhere else. I just have to try to avoid losing nice big ground units. Of course, if I ship Americal to Noumea and lose, New Zealand is less defended, and that can absolutely not be lost.

The early war tension as the Allies continues. But hey, we hit a carrier today!