The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[DRF99]

Since there is a chance that the Soviets may activate, can you comment on what sort of preparation, training, etc. you are doing in anticipation. I'm pretty sure it's possible to do training, upgrades, etc., but I'm not sure what else is possible before activation.

Cheers.

[Canoerebel]

The Soviets have been building forts and bases since the start of the war. The air units have been training since the start of the war (though I have missed some units that arrived more recently). And some of the units have upgraded - particularly rifle divisions and armored units. I attended to that about three months ago.

If I had to guess, here's what's going to happen through the end game: Roughly 26k points until auto-victory. Strategic Bombing will handle half or more of that. About 25% will come from base points and destroying enemy squads. The rest will come from sinking enemy ships and the air war. The Soviets may or may not activate, but activation will occur too late to have any real impact on the game. Singapore probably won't enter into the endgame question (but I'm proceeding on the possibility I may need it to). Korea may get very messy, including all-out enemy attacks by air and by sea; and possibly sudden radical changes in Allied plans to take advantage of certain opportunities or to minimize giving opportunities to John. John is probably evaluating KB's position and whether raiding my LOCs is his best option now; or whether it's time to haul back to the Home Islands to make the final stands.

John has disappeared from view in a sudden way. Monday he proposed that we flip turns yesterday. At his request, I sent a turn early yesterday morning. He never sent a turn back, never sent any emails, and didn't log onto the Forum at all. That's unusual. I hope it was just work rearing its ugly head and taking all his time. That happens on occasion. But he's not on today, either, which is odd.

[Canoerebel]

1/29/45

KBs and the LOC: I don't think John's main carrier TFs have time now to make it back to the Home Islands prior to the Korean invasion. I'll keep watching, both there and in DEI and SoPac.

[Canoerebel]

1/29/45

Strategic Bombing: Another productive raid. I've had good success the past three or four turns. SigInt reports John shifting his aviation support around a bit, striving for more coverage in the rear. So the current Happy Days of strat bombing won't last forever.

Fancy Pants: Allied fighters effective in parrying attempts by enemy bombers to slow the advance through the plains. Loading commences for Korea the day after tomorrow. Reinforced attack at Hong Kong tomorrow.

[BBfanboy]

Man, that is one good picture for your campaign!
The "troops surrounded" message usually means one or more units also gets eliminated. There might be only one or no enemy units there next turn.

IIRC Hué was the last place on the rail line up the EC of Vietnam that the Japanese held. If they retreated inland off the rail line, you can probably draw supply all the way to Vinh and load your LSTs there, shaving three or four days travel off their mission and saving a bunch of fuel too. Of course, clearing Hainan comes first. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

1/30/45

Naval Raid Fusan: USN DDs strike enemy shipping at Fusan.

[Canoerebel]

1/30/45

Raid on Toyama: Effective daytime, low-altitude raid on Toyama industry.

[tacticon]

Canoerebel, I just wanted you to know how much I have enjoyed your AAR. It rekindled my interest and got me back in the game. It has also impacted the way I play. I am much more focused on the logistical aspect of the game. Carriers are shepherds, not swordsmen. I appreciate the graphics and the running commentary without having to read reams of redundant combat reports. You played the author of a JFA mod and had house rules which crippled your biggest asset and you are still ahead of the historical allied progress. You have played a masterfully game, far above our poor forumites power to add or detract.
All this exposure is getting to me, back into the shadows I go where I have been lurking since Pacwar was on Genie.

[Canoerebel]

Those are nice words, Tacticon. Thank you. And the same to all the others who chime in with encouraging words (and mixed with criticisms too).

I'm walking a tightrope. The Allies should be rolling in 1945, and they are. There are many reasons for that. Some of those have little to do with me - my opponent's approach to the game; the OOB; how time constraints might've affected him; etc. Immodestly, I've earned some credit. And I realize that doesn't sit well with some readers because they don't like immodesty or because they realize how much better the Allies might've performed under the given circumstances.

This game started in 2012. It'll end in late 2017 (I think). It's been fun and crazy and tiring and tense. It's been a wild ride.

[Canoerebel]

1/30/45

Raid on LOC: Looks like KB East is heading for the Torres Strait. But down south, John is showing real interest in Fiji. Unless I'm very badly mistaken, Fiji, Auckland and Pago Pago are completely safe now.

[Canoerebel]

1/30/45

Fancy Pants: Hong Kong beginning to crack; continued progress in the plains; and the Korea invasion force begins loading at Shanghai tonight.

Korean Invasion Code Name: It merits one, so: Funnel Cake.

[Canoerebel]

1/31/45

Intelligence Screen: January was a good month - my best yet, I think. Still, I let too many points go, mainly in working on ways to counter John's SoPac carrier raid.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Man, that is one good picture for your campaign!
The "troops surrounded" message usually means one or more units also gets eliminated. There might be only one or no enemy units there next turn.

IIRC Hué was the last place on the rail line up the EC of Vietnam that the Japanese held. If they retreated inland off the rail line, you can probably draw supply all the way to Vinh and load your LSTs there, shaving three or four days travel off their mission and saving a bunch of fuel too. Of course, clearing Hainan comes first. [:)]

Surrounded doesn't eliminate units, but it is bad. The only guidance I received on it was that it meant the number of disabled devices in the unit was doubled (presumably for each type of device).

[JeffroK]

Given your recce emphasis on Korea, I wonder if JIII is expecting a landing on the Home Islands??

[BBfanboy]

Re: the Normanton/Boela question, I would stick with Normanton because he can only effectively approach from one direction, making mining and NavSearch easier to arrange. If KB tries to fly strikes from the Cooktown area it must risk a close approach to the Oz coast.

[Lecivius]

I have a question for the general audience. I thought manpower attacks started fires. Fires damage industry. The longer a fire burns, the more industry damaged. So, for example (and pulling numbers out of thin air), and attack on manpower causes 1000 fires, 10 to an industry. The next day, even though this point is not attacked, fires at 900 but now 11 industry damaged. And so on, and so on, until the fires are out. This effect caused the damage to 'snowball', and accumulate VP's even though you did not attack that point again (fire damage causing the VP count to increase).

Am I wrong?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I have a question for the general audience. I thought manpower attacks started fires. Fires damage industry. The longer a fire burns, the more industry damaged. So, for example (and pulling numbers out of thin air), and attack on manpower causes 1000 fires, 10 to an industry. The next day, even though this point is not attacked, fires at 900 but now 11 industry damaged. And so on, and so on, until the fires are out. This effect caused the damage to 'snowball', and accumulate VP's even though you did not attack that point again (fire damage causing the VP count to increase).

Am I wrong?

That is what I have seen. The city must have a fair bit of manpower industry to bomb or you have trouble getting the fire levels needed initially to get the lingering fires at end-of-turn. In a recent example CR bombed Resources and LI in a city that had 4 Manpower, but he was doing low level precision bombing and likely figured on a better payoff by going directly for the supply chain rather than hitting Manpower and hoping for further damage.

[Canoerebel]

That's right, Lecivius.

I'm seeing numbers like these: a series of B-29s comes in against, say, Nagasaki Manpower. The cumulative fires fluctuate, sometimes going up, sometimes going down, as the raid continues and scattered groups of planes arrive. By the end of the raids, the fires may top out at 100k according to the combat report. When you open the turn file, the number of fires at the base will be considerably lower - say about 20k (representing fires going out, being put out, etc.). By the following day, first down to 4k...then the following day 1k...etc. All those residual fires will cause more damage to industries at the base.

Manpower is especially a good target at night, when hitting specific industries are difficult. But during the day, I find it more efficient to hit a specific industry. For instance, a daytime raid of 25 Superforts might set 50k fires that would destroy 10 Resources and 5 Light Industry. Had I targeted those directly, the raid might've destroyed 50 Resources and 10 Light Industry.

[MakeeLearn]

Are you maxing out your recon before hitting a strategic bombing target, and reconning it the day after?

[Canoerebel]

Usually but not always. I have good coverage on targets from the latitude of Tokyo and on south. I don't recon further north. There are major targets there. John hasn't defended them to date. And the raids (Sendai, Akita, etc.) have been the most effective. Recon would be difficult and the surprise factor has worked very well.