The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[Lokasenna]

200K troops is what, probably 4K AV?

If you have good supplies, good XP, and good leaders with HQ presence - you might be OK. Or better than OK.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

200K troops is what, probably 4K AV?

If you have good supplies, good XP, and good leaders with HQ presence - you might be OK. Or better than OK.

I do have all of that. Southern Army HQ, Burmy HQ, several other HQ, one prepped for Prome. Leaders are all tip top. Supply is overflowing with the lack of action over the past months.

I think it's closer to 7-8k AV with all of those AFVs there. I usually allocate about 15k/400AV. Also, this is Japanese recon, but over many days and with lots of flyovers. Judging though by what has been here since 42, I'd say much more than 4k AV.

This is a report from Sept 43 that shows most of what I'll be facing. The rollover on this turn was 259k and 4,300 AFV though, so this is somewhat less, but he is moving from more than the one hex this time too. The other troops are Chinese, and if they shock it'll be maybe not so good for them. The 43 report shows the stack includes 4 x USA ID, 2 x Aussie ID, the 1st Marines and lots of USMC tanks, plus the usual Brit/Indian troops and armor.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=3853907

Looking at it makes me nervous, but also, by tomorrow I'll have 3k AV of VERY experienced troops (some over 90exp) and in two turns more like 4.5 - 5k AV.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Invasion[/font]

---

This is the other stuff going on. Here is the view of the North Pacific.

I see lots of stuff up here, and definitely combat ships, some transports, lots of scouts out front, and a while phalanx of subs leading the way. Seems like the real deal. Is it? I'm curious about some reporting a move West?

Our forces are mobilising. The KB is able to react, but I will use it carefully, if at all. I'd like it to remain hidden for a while until an opportunity really presents itself. I've got a LOT of ASW and search going up here now, so in the next turn I should know enough to understand a bit of what my come. Right now it's daunting. [X(]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Times New Roman"]Invasion[/font]

---

This is the other stuff going on. Here is the view of the North Pacific.

I see lots of stuff up here, and definitely combat ships, some transports, lots of scouts out front, and a while phalanx of subs leading the way. Seems like the real deal. Is it?

Is that a serious question?[;)]

I think the biggest mistake every JFB makes is letting these damn kitchen sink invasions approach without engaging them at all, without getting behind them, just don't let him make the approach without testing him if you can.

There is almost always a follow on support, supply, 2nd wave group too.

So many things to do, so many options for fun. It is an opportunity for you to be creative![;)]

PS: Look at the last months worth of SigInt...I bet there were clues.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Times New Roman"]Invasion[/font]

---

This is the other stuff going on. Here is the view of the North Pacific.

I see lots of stuff up here, and definitely combat ships, some transports, lots of scouts out front, and a while phalanx of subs leading the way. Seems like the real deal. Is it?

Is that a serious question?[;)]

I think the biggest mistake every JFB makes is letting these damn kitchen sink invasions approach without engaging them at all, without getting behind them, just don't let him make the approach without testing him if you can.

There is almost always a follow on support, supply, 2nd wave group too.

So many things to do, so many options for fun. It is an opportunity for you to be creative![;)]

PS: Look at the last months worth of SigInt...I bet there were clues.

I have some ideas of how to engage without taking on the entire Death Star if it's here. This is a game where the IJN is not as advantaged in KB strength as it can be at this point, although we've clawed back a few.

I do agree there are opportunities. I have to see a bit before knowing how to proceed. It may be hard to "see" until a landing happens. I'd love to be creative here, but I also don't want to lose opportunities for the future with a headlong rush into a Midway style battle. He planned this, and he has the advantage until I know what is up at least. I at least need to see where the DS is at and how it moves. I haven't got a track on it yet. Not even from lost search.

[Lowpe]

You can't really go by this, yet, but it is all the rage now to configure the invasion deathstar almost totally defensively and go very light on bombers.

Send two TB or cheap destroyers with torpedoes right into the teeth of that thing. See if his ships react, collide, etc. For even more fun, put them on escort, low risk, and see how many encounters they can evade. Although I would prefer they get their torpedoes off. If you can sneak in behind of from the side even better.

Put one sentai of Betties on high altitude naval strike with 4-5 Sentai of good fighters flying escort. Poor mans sweep...even a group of Helens if the bettys are too dear.

My bet is that a primary invasion spot will be the clear island south east of Hokkaido.

Anyhow, enjoy...the game won't be quiet anymore.[:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

There is almost always a follow on support, supply, 2nd wave group too.

For CR, yes.

For me, no - everything concentrated in one hex for me, realism be damned. There's just not much reason to ever disperse, assuming troops are prepped/etc.

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

200K troops is what, probably 4K AV?

If you have good supplies, good XP, and good leaders with HQ presence - you might be OK. Or better than OK.

I do have all of that. Southern Army HQ, Burmy HQ, several other HQ, one prepped for Prome. Leaders are all tip top. Supply is overflowing with the lack of action over the past months.

I think it's closer to 7-8k AV with all of those AFVs there. I usually allocate about 15k/400AV. Also, this is Japanese recon, but over many days and with lots of flyovers. Judging though by what has been here since 42, I'd say much more than 4k AV.

This is a report from Sept 43 that shows most of what I'll be facing. The rollover on this turn was 259k and 4,300 AFV though, so this is somewhat less, but he is moving from more than the one hex this time too. The other troops are Chinese, and if they shock it'll be maybe not so good for them. The 43 report shows the stack includes 4 x USA ID, 2 x Aussie ID, the 1st Marines and lots of USMC tanks, plus the usual Brit/Indian troops and armor.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=3853907

Looking at it makes me nervous, but also, by tomorrow I'll have 3k AV of VERY experienced troops (some over 90exp) and in two turns more like 4.5 - 5k AV.

If you really have forts 6 there... if he shocks across with somewhere between 4K to 5K against your 3K... I'd expect 1:2 odds in your favor but a reduction of forts to level 5. If he really does have 7-8K, I'd expect 1:1 even against your 4.5-5K.

I don't think I defended Prome against Bullwinkle. It's just too vulnerable without the terrain multiplier. Highly concentrated pushes seem to be able to win through in clear hexes, regardless of initial fort levels.

So I guess best case is hope that you get your additional AV there and that he doesn't actually have 7-8K AV coming across.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You can't really go by this, yet, but it is all the rage now to configure the invasion deathstar almost totally defensively and go very light on bombers.

It is?

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 31, 1942[/font]

---

Well, the end of May brings some real action to the game for the first time in a few months. The Allies shock across at Prome!

My extra troops did not arrive in time, not even the extra Thai unit which inexplicably took 3 days to travel one hex!

That may end up being okay though as this was a rout, but not the expected one. The Allies achieve only a 1:3 and end up with a whopping 2,800 infantry squads destroyed or disabled, with another 600 vehicles out, 550 guns out of action and 600 non combat troops listed as casualties!! The IJA with their forts, experience, leaders (+) and a few siege guns hold them off!! [8D][&o][X(]

Now I have a dilemma. I estimate that I'll have an AV advantage for a few turns, and the Allies will be rocked by severe disruption, fatigue and hugely disabled units.

Do I shock ASAP?

Just to add to the difficulty of this decision I've got 3 x 90 + exp IDs railing in next turn, plus another tank division and an experienced Thai division to bring IJA AV to 4.5k +, and in another turn have one more ID and more RF guns and arty railing in. So in about four turns I'd have 5k AV, my units rested, his still in trouble with disablements and disruption and very fatigued.

Shock now? Or wait.

I will decide in the next 2-3 hours, so weigh in now if you have a thought. I am leaning toward waiting 3-4 turns to get my other units in and out of strat mode, then hitting with everything. Is that too late?

interesting the USA IDs are here still, but the Aussies and 1st Marines are conspicuously missing! Hmmmmm. A landing behind the lines perhaps? [:D]
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR MAY 31, 1942
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ground combat at Prome (55,50)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 172945 troops, 2525 guns, 3010 vehicles, Assault Value = 5083

Defending force 91343 troops, 1006 guns, 1286 vehicles, Assault Value = 2616

Allied adjusted assault: 2134

Japanese adjusted defense: 6613

Allied assault odds: 1 to 3 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2062 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 115 disabled
Non Combat: 87 destroyed, 63 disabled
Engineers: 90 destroyed, 33 disabled
Guns lost 238 (66 destroyed, 172 disabled)
Vehicles lost 190 (56 destroyed, 134 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
22829 casualties reported
Squads: 88 destroyed, 2721 disabled
Non Combat: 137 destroyed, 446 disabled
Engineers: 96 destroyed, 278 disabled
Guns lost 554 (41 destroyed, 513 disabled)
Vehicles lost 610 (161 destroyed, 449 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Assaulting units:
1st USMC Tank Battalion
14th Indian Division
23rd Indian Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
754th Tank Battalion
Americal Infantry Division
29th British Brigade
209th Combat Engineer Battalion
41st Infantry Division
14th Army Engineer Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment
268th Motorised Brigade
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
27th Infantry Division
39th Indian Division
9th Indian Division
40th Infantry Division
26th Indian/B Division
255th Indian Tank Brigade
26th Indian/A Division
19th Indian Division
193rd Tank Battalion
81st (West African) Division
26th Indian/C Division
20th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
31st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
I/14th Army RIASC Base Force
30th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
Southeast Asia
208th Coast AA Regiment
226th Field Artillery Battalion
26th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
77th Coast AA Regiment
70th Coast AA Regiment
20th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
205th Coast AA Regiment
175th USAAF Base Force
223rd Field Artillery Battalion
1st RM Heavy AA Regiment
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
8th Mahratta AT Gun Regiment
78th Coast AA Regiment
122nd British AT Gun Regiment
23rd AA Bde
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
198th Field Artillery Battalion
1st West African AA Regiment
197th Coast AA Regiment
16th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
X' Force
XXXIII Corps RIASC Base Force
96th Coast AA Regiment
85th British AT Gun Regiment
IV Indian Corps
XXXIII Indian Corps
858th Engineer Aviation Battalion

Defending units:
19th Ind. Engineer Regiment
14th Tank Regiment
31st Division
55th Division
18th Tank Regiment
1st Tank Division
3rd RTA Division
24th Ind.Mixed Brigade
11th Tank Regiment
2nd Division
4th RTA Division
2nd Medium Mortar Battalion
7th RF Gun Battalion
7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Air Defense AA Regiment
11th Air Defense AA Battalion
50th Field AA Battalion
23rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
52nd Field AA Battalion
13th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
18th Army
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
10th RF Gun Battalion
23rd AA Regiment
3rd Ind.AA Gun Co
11th Air Defense AA Regiment
53rd Field AA Battalion
43rd Const Co
5th Mortar Battalion
15th Const Co
44th Ind.AA Gun Co
32nd Air Defense AA Battalion
51st Field AA Battalion
36th JNAF AF Unit

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

This shows two shots during the combat of his troops losing assault value as they crossed, the small tank units going to 0 and divisions losing 70% of their AV. Wow!

[Lowpe]

I thought that might happen, as you didn't mention months on end of bombing.[&o]

You either attack with the next turn with your biggest and best units, or forget it I think.

Watch out for an all out bombing, sweeping attack you should really inflict a lot of losses if tries.

Either way you have bought a solid month here with that result. If the Allies supply line is weak, you bought three months easily. [&o]

If you wait three days, you will be shot to pieces. Those fresh troops railing in can hold Prome, while you fix bayonets. Wish you had a little more big artillery...but you will be close to a 2-1 or better with the a good roll (and providing you protect the troops from a bombing assault).

Now you need another result like that in the east.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I thought that might happen, as you didn't mention months on end of bombing.[&o]

You either attack with the next turn with your biggest and best units, or forget it I think.

Watch out for an all out bombing, sweeping attack you should really inflict a lot of losses if tries.

Either way you have bought a solid month here with that result. If the Allies supply line is weak, you bought three months easily. [&o]

If you wait three days, you will be shot to pieces. Those fresh troops railing in can hold Prome, while you fix bayonets. Wish you had a little more big artillery...but you will be close to a 2-1 or better with the a good roll (and providing you protect the troops from a bombing assault).

Now you need another result like that in the east.

Well, I didn't mention that he did bomb this day, fairly heavily, but not all out. He ended up losing about 28 4E to flak here! [:)]

So I think the AA units are a bit daunting for an all-out blitz on these troops, even in the clear. He got maybe 10 disabled last turn for all of that. I'll give a better report tomorrow. I've decided to have a think on it, send him back the replay only and finish the turn tomorrow. Too much to do anyway in the North (search got me some results up there as did a well placed sacrificial Judy strike).

Low CAP does the trick here and I've rotated fresh groups into Prome for tomorrow. I can hold his reinforcements back for a few days I think, which should give me time if I do wait to shock.

The argument for waiting is that these are my best units arriving, they're fresh, and I can protect them from massive air assault. So in 4 turns I'd have double his AV most likely, plus more AT guns, heavy arty and another tank division. I'm 60/40 for waiting and being methodical here, not only for the results it could achieve but for the psychological aspect of a still confident IJA letting the Allies squirm for a few turns.

Is that bad? [;)]

[Lowpe]

Well, you will lose all the disruption (not disabled) that you probably have now.

In 3 days he will be down to 10% disruption. I bet some units are low on supply today too, from the shock attack.

You are in good shape no matter what you do....but those Allied troops do recover fast, it sure would be nice to see a large chunk destroyed. If you rout him out...well then, the losses will be staggering.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Well, you will lose all the disruption (not disabled) that you probably have now.

In 3 days he will be down to 10% disruption. I bet some units are low on supply today too, from the shock attack.

You are in good shape no matter what you do....but those Allied troops do recover fast, it sure would be nice to see a large chunk destroyed. If you rout him out...well then, the losses will be staggering.

Arrrgggg. I know, I know. I just don't want to shock into a 1:2 either and have it all turn around on me. [:-]

I'll sleep on it and have a think.

[ny59giants]

Do you have Southern Command HQ or another Command HQ fully prepped for Prome?? That would increase the possibility of getting that massive adjusted AV when you attack. If he has multiple divisions with over 50% of his infantry disabled and you can get good die rolls, you could destroy many of them. So, go with your gut!!

[Lokasenna]

I think you need to temper your optimistic estimates here. I think they are overly so. I don't buy that you could have two times his AV present there in a few turns. In a few turns, he'll have recovered squads. Does he have more on the way?

Remember that the "animation" screen for the battle shows effective AV, not actual. His divisions showing as 0 AV doesn't mean that they have zero non-disabled assault devices - given that this is a shock attack, it almost certainly means that the river crossing disruption/fatigue is reducing the AV.

I would wait one turn and see what the AV's are. The disruption from shocking across is large, especially so when the odds achieved are low like they were here and the number of casualties suffered was potentially great.

But mostly, I think this is a case of the FOW aspect that has the largest degree of variation in the game maybe playing a game with you here. It's entirely possible that he only suffered ~1.5K-2K AV loss rather than the 3K+ that would be signalled by the loss/disablement of all of those devices.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Do you have Southern Command HQ or another Command HQ fully prepped for Prome?? That would increase the possibility of getting that massive adjusted AV when you attack. If he has multiple divisions with over 50% of his infantry disabled and you can get good die rolls, you could destroy many of them. So, go with your gut!!

My Southern HQ was prepped for Toungou, so flipped it once I discovered this attack coming, but it's only just starting to prep for Prome. One local HQ is fully prepped though.

I know, it's a lot of devices, even with possible FOW, and I'd like to get some destroyed by forcing a retreat.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I think you need to temper your optimistic estimates here. I think they are overly so. I don't buy that you could have two times his AV present there in a few turns. In a few turns, he'll have recovered squads. Does he have more on the way?

Remember that the "animation" screen for the battle shows effective AV, not actual. His divisions showing as 0 AV doesn't mean that they have zero non-disabled assault devices - given that this is a shock attack, it almost certainly means that the river crossing disruption/fatigue is reducing the AV.

I would wait one turn and see what the AV's are. The disruption from shocking across is large, especially so when the odds achieved are low like they were here and the number of casualties suffered was potentially great.

But mostly, I think this is a case of the FOW aspect that has the largest degree of variation in the game maybe playing a game with you here. It's entirely possible that he only suffered ~1.5K-2K AV loss rather than the 3K+ that would be signalled by the loss/disablement of all of those devices.

The units I have coming in are the best IDs by EXP on map. Here are some shots of two of them plus the tank division. I can't help but think they'd be a huge addition after 3 days even.

I agree there could be some FOW here. If I wait one day, bombard to see what's going on, there shouldn't be anything else adding in that would not have to also shock to get across. His other troops are coming from the hex SW of Prome, different than these. Another set of units is coming down the road from Magwe and could be in tomorrow or the next so I'm sending a sacrificial tank unit to slow them down. The 14th with it's Type 95 tanks that is almost shot anyway.

In my experience the disruption will not go down quickly here. He sent in the HQs with the troops, so their effects will be reduced as they are also disrupted, fatigued and disabled. So I've got a few turns to play with of high disruption and the disablements will not be fixed quickly. My guess would be not more than 50-70 a day AV improvement. Of course that is a lot when I have to think about when to attack.

I've decided not to be rash, to wait a day and bombard with my heavy arty (protected by their 6 forts) and get my railing in units started toward combat readiness.

[obvert]

Here's a shot of the overall readiness of the troops. Very low fatigue and disruption, less than 10% overall disablements.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 30, 1944[/font]

---

Over the past few days we've had some intense battles over the bases in Burma. It's good to see what is happening and what his tendencies are at last. I have very little feeling for Dan as a player, and I need to start to see his methods of air combat, his use of troops on the ground and ways he moves and sets up naval forces. His AARs have never been detailed with lots of combat reports, so there isn't a lot of background info to go on.

On the 30th he sent in night strikes, then daytime sweeps and bombers to Toungou. I'd been holding steady here, not LR CAPing Prome, so all of my guys were on 0 hex layered low level CAP at 9k, 7k and 5k. His best sweeps still did well, but overall the defenders took a god chunk out of the sweepers and still had enough left to harass the bombers, which is all I could ask.

He sent Spits low, at 5k, and other sweepers highish, at 25k. Someone has been helping him with low level CAP tactics I see!! [;)]

I like that he's playing with it. This means the dynamic will be fun. I'll stay low for a while, but will switch it up if the time seems right. A 31k CAP this turn would have done a very good job. [:)]
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 30, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Night Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 69 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 12 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Runway hits 8

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 32
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 140
Ki-84a Frank x 49

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 18 NM, estimated altitude 30,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 31
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 124
Ki-84a Frank x 48

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 70 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 26
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 102
Ki-84a Frank x 42

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 18
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25
F4U-1A Corsair x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
18 x Corsair II sweeping at 25000 feet
2 x F4U-1A Corsair sweeping at 25000 feet
3 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 22
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 78
Ki-84a Frank x 33

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 6
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 25
F4U-1A Corsair x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x F4U-1A Corsair sweeping at 25000 feet
11 x F4U-1A Corsair sweeping at 25000 feet
3 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 25000 feet
3 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 15
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 52
Ki-84a Frank x 22

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 11
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 26
Ki-84a Frank x 15

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 5
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 14
Ki-84a Frank x 7

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 52

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 damaged
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 26 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 5
Runway hits 19

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Toungoo , at 57,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 3
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 4

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 18
B-17F Fortress x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed by flak
B-17F Fortress: 2 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-17F Fortress bombing from 25000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 31, 1944[/font]

---

On the 31st he came at Prome, hitting it with massed sweeps and 4Es. The defenders did well, but eventually were overwhelmed. At that point the flak took over! [&o]

It's very effective here, and really didn't let the bombers get to the troops much at all. I think there were around a total of 2 disabling hits to infantry squads, while of the 126 4Es flying, 28 are reported shot down or lost to flak. Virtually all were reported damaged.

I feel like this is not a serious threat in the air though, and that he has a lot more assets up North waiting to exploit a landing there. I'm wondering where the rest of the RAF is though. Not many showing up here other than Spit VIII and one group of coastal command Libs. Also not a single 2E anywhere here. Keeping them in reserve?

Either way, I feel fairly secure at Prome, even in the clear, with the performance of the AA so far there. I will contest the skies once more as I assess what to do with the ground troops, but will stand down CAP here soon and let the bombers do what they can.
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[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 31, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 8
N1K1-J George x 35
N1K2-J George x 36
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 69

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x F6F-3 Hellcat sweeping at 31000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 7
N1K1-J George x 31
N1K2-J George x 35
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 57

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 7
N1K1-J George x 30
N1K2-J George x 27
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 46

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 45 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 7
N1K1-J George x 27
N1K2-J George x 23
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 36

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 41,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 7
N1K1-J George x 22
N1K2-J George x 19
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 24

Allied aircraft
P-38H Lightning x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38H Lightning: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 45 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 5
N1K1-J George x 15
N1K2-J George x 15
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 17

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 12000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 3
N1K1-J George x 7
N1K2-J George x 9
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 7

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M2 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 55th Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 62 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator GR.VI x 12

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator GR.VI: 10 damaged
Liberator GR.VI: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x Liberator GR.VI bombing from 12000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 250 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 69 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 12
B-24D1 Liberator x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 9 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24D1 Liberator: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 31st Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 24

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 24 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 1st Tank Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 68 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 12

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 12 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 2nd Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 14

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 14 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
34 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D1 Liberator: 6 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-24D1 Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 7
N1K1-J George x 11
N1K2-J George x 14
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 33

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M2 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 5 destroyed, 6 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 5 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 46 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 3
N1K1-J George x 7
N1K2-J George x 11
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 17

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 3 destroyed by flak

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Prome , at 55,50

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M2 Jack x 1
N1K1-J George x 5
N1K2-J George x 4
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 3

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M2 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 damaged
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 10 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Runway hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 12000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

Aside form the Judy strike up North air losses were roughly even on the day.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]May 31, 1944[/font]

---

Up here things are getting serious. Today search outlined the edges and depth of the allied move much more clearly. It's going to cost some search planes, but that's fine. I set one group of D4Y1 to strike at 15 hexes in the hope of finding the DS and it's fighter strength and composition. That worked. [:)]

The USN was all too obliging, and shot down every last one, but this gives valuable info on how he sets up the CAP, how much is there, and if it's mostly in one hex, which it appears for now at least to be.

Now I have an idea of how much I'l be dealing with, and how he puts them together, a bit. There is a lot of spread to the Allied fleets, but I bet that is intentional too. Enticing.
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 31, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on TF, near Shimushiri-jima at 135,56

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 12
D4Y1 Judy x 18

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 37
F4U-1A Corsair x 226
F6F-3 Hellcat x 609

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 3 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

CAP engaged:
VF-33 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
VF-71 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 15 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 7000 and 11000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VF-33 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-38 with F4U-1A Corsair (4 airborne, 17 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 16000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-40 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 17 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 11000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
VF-3 with F6F-3 Hellcat (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 9000 and 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
VF-6 with F4U-1A Corsair (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes
VF-8 with F4U-1A Corsair (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
VF-9 with F6F-3 Hellcat (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-10 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
VF-11 with F4U-1A Corsair (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VF-13 with F6F-3 Hellcat (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 7000 and 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-14 with F6F-3 Hellcat (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 3000 and 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VF-16 with F6F-3 Hellcat (8 airborne, 19 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 16000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes
VF-22 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 1000 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 13 minutes
VF-23 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-24 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 9000 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VF-30 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 3000 and 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes
VF-32 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 7000 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
VF-50 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 2000 and 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]