Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

The phony war is indeed over. Erik sent the combat report for the 5/31/44 turn (but not the next turn, as he's still working on it). There's no doubt now that he knows exactly what's going on since some of his strike aircraft encountered full Death Star CAP. There was also some major action at Prome. More about these things later, but I'm going to post a couple of images that will help orient as to what's where and why.

[Canoerebel]

5/30/44

Strategic Map: This shows which way the Allies are leaning.

[Canoerebel]

5/30/44

NoPac: This images gives a better idea as to the disposition of Allied forces.

The Allied forces are concentrating east of the Kuriles, and are currently in three main armadas (Death Star, Invasion Primary, Invasion Secondary). Lots of subs and YMS TFs are moving in, checking for mines, clear channels, and enemy shipping. And other TFs that were late leaving or that left from the Aleutians are vectoring in. By tomorrow, Death Star and Herd I should rendezvous. Herd II should join them by the day after tomorrow. By then, I don't want any lagging TFs in the area, as things should become awfully hot.

SigInt and other indications continue to point to an enemy army spread across the map prudently - but not concentrated in such a way to stop overwhelming force at a single point (that's my subjective analysis - I'll know in two or three days if my interpretations were right or wrong or rose-colored). I think if Erik doesn't contest within three days, the Allies will be so close to D-Day that he'll have lost the chance to prevent the landings. That's only step one in a long process of checks - this will be a long, bloody, violent campaign so that what begins auspiciously may not end that way. But I feel pretty good that 1,700+ ships have approached this closely in good order without already drawing heavy opposition from the enemy.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5/30/44

Strategic Map: This shows which way the Allies are leaning.

Measles!

[JeffroK]

The east coast of the Philippines looks in trouble!

[Canoerebel]

5/31/44

Contact: A modest enemy strike package of 30 bombers and escorts targeted Death Star, located just five hexes SE of Shimishura Jima. I think all the enemy aircraft splashed while the Allies lost a Hellcat. Erik got a good look at the CAP:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Shimushiri-jima at 135,56


Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft A6M3a Zero x 12
D4Y1 Judy x 18

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 37
F4U-1A Corsair x 226
F6F-3 Hellcat x 609

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 3 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

I've changed the configuration of Death Star's CAP a bit, pulling in a few additional Corsair squadrons from the Aluetians.

Death Star and the Herd: You know how an advance TF will slow down to allow following TFs to catch up? In a weird departure, Death Star steamed a full nine hexes, leaving the Herd far behind. Fortunately no repercussions today. DS will only move a few hexes tomorrow to allow the troop transports and other TFs to catch up. It will be a bit nervewracking. On the one hand, I'm close to the target now and want to sprint forward. On the other, protecting the Herd is of paramount importance.

SigINt shows Erike reacting, with troops mainly bound for Hokkaido. And mouseover indicates a fourth unit at Shikuka now. But I think air reinforcements are futile (without heavy weapons, the enemy units should be overwhelmed by the Allied assault army) and ship reinforcements probably too late. I think Erik has to employ Kaigun and KB in order to prevent the landings. I don't know exactly where they are.

[Canoerebel]

6/1/44

NoPac: Death Star and the Herd continue steaming west, nearing the Kuriles without incident. Death Star and the Main Herd combined today, with the second Herd trailing by only a few hexes. A few slower-moving TFs have turned around and will be escorted in later. Speed is now critical.

Allied subs and YMS TFs have entered some of the ports and channels without incident. I had expected minefields and all sorts of mayhem by this point, but still pretty quiet.

Tons of SigInt of enemy units inbound for Hokkaido - including division-strength.

I don't know the location of KB and Kaigun. The former is probably not too far away. The latter was probably scattered and is now en route to this theater of operations.

This is a complex operation designed to overwhelm the enemy at a few points, take the high ground, force the enemy to attack, and jump-start the strategic bombing campaing.

[Canoerebel]

6/2/44

D Minus 2: Tension, but things seem to be going well.

[BBfanboy]

I am not so sure Obvert uses traps all that much - at least not on a strategic level. A local CAP trap or raiding SCTF seems more likely. My impression is that he will seize opportunities he sees more than try to sucker his opponent. Thus your careful and diligent style will be a tough challenge for him to find chinks in your ops.

[JeffroK]

You've done well to break through the Kuriles, it may be a lot harder to get back out!

[Canoerebel]

Yup.

[Canoerebel]

6/3/44

NoPac: No major enemy interference today; no sign of KB or Kaigun; the threat of enemy LBA is minimal since the Sikhalin Island bases are both level one; unless Erik strikes hard tomorrow, I think the opening of the invasion is going to succeed.

Three months ago, when we started the game, this plan was conceived. At the time, I envision utter carnage as a massive Allied invasion fleet had to pierce a ring of steel at the Kuriles - mines, subs, enemy air, combat TFs, carriers. So far that has not been the case.

From my perspective looking through the glass darkly - I think the Allies may have indeed achieved strategic surprise that will prove vital in the opening days.

Erik will react quickly and violently. Things will get tight. But for any of that to matter, first I have to take Sikhalin Island.

[Drakanel]

Hrm, I was wrong. I originally thought you planned to take Hokkaido directly, a risky move but still possible in my opinion at this date. Instead it's Sikhalin Island, for a strategic bombing campaign.

So the question now is, where will you go from here? [:D] You named a few posts ago a secondary force, I wonder whether it's to reinforce / disembark a lot of support units, or to strike at other nearby bases. The Kuriles do seem possible, to open a path. But then again, I don't know if they're worth it...

[Canoerebel]

It's pretty clear now that Hokkaido would be a real bear. Bihoro is strongly held and I know there are divisions at Kushiro and Sapporo. If I landed a full force fully prepped, I'd have a chance. But it would be a tough, long fight that might get dirty. And stepping back three months to March 1, 1944, the thought of a stiffly held Hokkaido was daunting. So I looked for places that had obvious advantages. One of those is Sikhalin Island, where I had intel on Shikuka due to the Russian troops in the adjacent hex (plus Sikhalin Island's "back" is safe - I'm not surrounded by 360 degrees of hostile terrain).

The secondary target (which was originally the primary target) had similar advantages.

Erik is going to pour reinforcements and power into this game. He perceives where his weaknesses are and will want to address them, in addition to the need to strike telling blows against the Allies. But I'm probably not going to press the matter. I'm watching the bottom line (denominator) of the Auto Victory equation carefully. Right now, the objective is to take Strategic Bombing bases and establish a Gibralter/Cemetery Hill that will cost Erik dearly if/when he attacks.

The Kuriles are needed, but not in the short or medium term. I'll need to prep troops (and the Shikuka troops are likely to take on that chore, once Shikuka falls). I hope to have enough supply and fuel to manage things far into the future. This campaign is somewhat analogous to my Big Tent (DEI) operation in the game vs. John III, but with far more supply and fuel.

A lot of this is due to Joseph's (SqzMyLemon's) work before I stepped in. And perhaps Historiker's too, though I'm not familiar with how long he played and the dat ewhen Joseph stepped in for him.

[Drakanel]

Oh, it is interesting and unexpected this way, so zero complaints here. And now I'm also wondering about the secondary target. Hrrrm, curiosity... Will have to read and find out.


But, but, BUT. Now that we do know one of the targets, do we get a nice Operation name? Or, will we have to wait for the secondary invasion before we do? [:D]
Frosty Cakes? [8D]

[Canoerebel]

6/4/44

NoPac: Things went pretty smoothly today. D-Day will be tomorrow. Erik has a host of subs closing in. As for KB and Kaigun, I don't know.

I do know that Erik is an exceptional player and that the hardest and toughest days are to come. Before I can allow for that, though, I have to succeed in the opening amphibious assaults. Things are shaping up well to this point. Opposition has been far weaker than expected. And if the location of Erik's subs (flooding up from CenPac) is any indication, the Allies did achieve strategic surprise. I don't know how things are going to play out, but achieving that level of surprise is encouraging and rewarding. An immense amount of planning and preparation went into this operation.

[Canoerebel]

6/5/44

NoPac: The opening objective was to overwhelm the enemy at a single point. Things are shaping up pretty well at Shikuka.

[BBfanboy]

Your annotated maps are a real treat for the peanut gallery trying to follow events. Thank you for your efforts producing them! [:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Your annotated maps are a real treat for the peanut gallery trying to follow events. Thank you for your efforts producing them! [:)]

Hear hear. I'm appreciating them as well.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Gents. I like doing the maps, when there's time to relax and do them right. Knowing that readers find them useful is encouraging.