Going The Distance: BTS 4.6 MichaelU/lb4269 (A) vs bristolduke (J)

[MichaelU]

The reason I say KB might have other plans is this sigint report.

1st Maizuru Assault/ Division is loaded on a Japanese AK moving to Midway Island

Which is really annoying, because I'd bet Mike $10 that KB would go to Midway next, but he wasn't so sure. He's never going to take the bet now that we have seen that report.

Not much we can do about it if he sends KB to Midway with a division. Instead we're shoring up our position in the Aleutians, which is where he could strike next, and waiting.

[John 3rd]

Those SNLF Assault Divisions are actually Brigades with AV a little over 200. Due how the game editor works I had to set them up as Divisions so they could divide down to three elements. Just FYI...

[MichaelU]

Dec 19, 41

Taking a while to get turns back at the moment, only seen one since Friday. But as I was away for a long weekend it has worked out okay.

Dec 19 is probably the quietest turn we've had so far in an otherwise action packed start to the war. The Japanese haven't done been pushing forward particularly hard anywhere after their push on Rabaul was bloodily repulsed. KB has also disappeared since Wake.

There are still a lot of Japanese subs hanging around off Pearl. We have several ASW groups out looking for them, and every turn there are many torpedoes fired, and many depth charges dropped, all apparently with no effect. This day was fairly typical -- five engagements, 10 torpedoes fired, countless depth charges dropped.

MacArthur's fear about the destruction of Manila is being realised, even as he speeds towards Soerabaja in a PT boat. For the first time, waves of Bettys fly in and start bombing the defenses, causing many casualties and razing whole districts of the city.

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Morning Air attack on Asiatic Fleet , at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 40
G3M2 Nell x 27
G4M1 Betty x 53

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 3 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
301 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

This is the largest of several bombing raids throughout the day, and there is no air cover in place to meet these. High command felt better use could be found of the planes and pilots than in a doomed defense.

Despite their dire situation, the defenders of Manila aren't giving up. Japanese forces push deeper into the city, but at heavy cost.

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Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 27290 troops, 193 guns, 268 vehicles, Assault Value = 947

Defending force 41667 troops, 407 guns, 174 vehicles, Assault Value = 850

Japanese adjusted assault: 230

Allied adjusted defense: 729

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1783 casualties reported
Squads: 32 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 71 (37 destroyed, 34 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
838 casualties reported
Squads: 31 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 21 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 23 (2 destroyed, 21 disabled)

The ability of the Allies to strike back is diminishing, but we take our chances where we can, with bombing of Palembang. British Hurricanes continue to dominate the skies, clearing the way for B17s to keep pounding the oilfields. Another 8 hits on the oilfields. These are now showing as 887 (114), which seems like a lot of damage. Unless he does something soon to shut down these bombing runs, there is not going to be much oil left for shipping back to the home islands.

[MichaelU]

It feels a bit like the calm in the eye of the hurricane at the moment. No major Japanese task forces are spotted moving on anywhere.

To shake things up, the Renown is leading a major task force north from Soerebaja to go look for trouble around Balikpapan. It looks like the carriers in the area have left, almost certainly to replenish after spending most of nearly two weeks sinking transports in the Celebes Sea. There are still enemy cruisers south of Balikpapan, so a fight looks likely.

The hapless Inglewood has been sacked as TF commander following the light carrier debacle, and replaced with the rather more useful Collinson. At Leadership 64, Naval 64 and Aggression 70, this is the man you want leading the charge. We hope.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: MichaelU

It feels a bit like the calm in the eye of the hurricane at the moment. No major Japanese task forces are spotted moving on anywhere.

To shake things up, the Renown is leading a major task force north from Soerebaja to go look for trouble around Balikpapan. It looks like the carriers in the area have left, almost certainly to replenish after spending most of nearly two weeks sinking transports in the Celebes Sea. There are still enemy cruisers south of Balikpapan, so a fight looks likely.

The hapless Inglewood has been sacked as TF commander following the light carrier debacle, and replaced with the rather more useful Collinson. At Leadership 64, Naval 64 and Aggression 70, this is the man you want leading the charge. We hope.

A great leader will help, but crew experience counts too. Renown should have good crew experience if modeled correctly. Good Luck!

[MichaelU]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
A great leader will help, but crew experience counts too. Renown should have good crew experience if modeled correctly. Good Luck!

Crew experience is 76/58, so yeah, the crew are good, the commander is good.

What happened though is that I had set the destination as Balikpapan, and rather than go in, the TF cruised up to one sprint away, ready to run in for a night attack. I thought they only did that when you were planning a shore bombardment, but apparently not. Lesson learnt.

Anyway, they haven't been spotted, the targets are still there, so we will have another go this turn.

[BBfanboy]

The bombardment AI has the run-in, run-out algorithm that requires the TF to get a certain distance away and therefore stages the run-in from a close enough point. That should not happen for a SCTF - no special AI for that. If it was sprinting up to Balikpapan it may have had to refuel the DDs.

[MichaelU]

Dec 20, 41

Ouch and double ouch. The poor old Detroit, just one hex out of Pearl Harbor, sucks another three torps and goes straight to the bottom. Boo.

But imagine our horror when we see this.

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Sub attack near Lahaina at 183,108

Japanese Ships
SS I-174

Allied Ships
CVE Langley, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Le Triomphant

Grim stuff, and I'd written off the Langley for sure. But amazingly she is still going, with 56 float damage. She will pop straight into Lahaina while move in some ASW task forces to try clear the sub menace. Then she is going to have to make a run for Pearl and some extended yard time.

That was definitely the major excitement for the turn. In a not very nice way.

Things were exciting for our Hong Kong MTBs, but again not in a nice way. You'd think when the engagement opens at 1,000 yards they might get a couple of torpedo hits in, but it is not to be.

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 64,98, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko
CA Haguro
CA Nachi
CA Ashigara
DD Mutsuki
DD Kisaragi
DD Yayoi
DD Mochizuki
DD Mazabuki

Allied Ships
MTB 7
MTB 8, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
MTB 9
MTB 10
MTB 11, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
MTB 12

Japanese bombers continue to pound Manila, but the defenders cling on tenaciously.

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Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 29665 troops, 233 guns, 204 vehicles, Assault Value = 939

Defending force 40883 troops, 405 guns, 172 vehicles, Assault Value = 813

Japanese adjusted assault: 104

Allied adjusted defense: 721

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 6 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1533 casualties reported
Squads: 40 destroyed, 138 disabled
Non Combat: 26 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 11 (5 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 83 (66 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
915 casualties reported
Squads: 20 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 22 (3 destroyed, 19 disabled)

The longer we can hold out here, and the more Japanese troops we can kill, the better for our DEI situation. We really don't want these troops loading up in Manila and invading Java.

Other than some light bombing of the Chinese units, and of the Palembang oilfields, not much to report in terms of action.

[MichaelU]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The bombardment AI has the run-in, run-out algorithm that requires the TF to get a certain distance away and therefore stages the run-in from a close enough point. That should not happen for a SCTF - no special AI for that. If it was sprinting up to Balikpapan it may have had to refuel the DDs.

Don't think that was the case either, it had just come out of Soerebaja and everyone was fueled to the max. But despite being a SCTF and being ordered to move the 10 hexes to Balipapan at full speed, the force ended the turn 8 hexes off Balkipapan, or one full speed move away. Exactly the behaviour I would expect from a bombardment TF.

I thought I may have made a mistake and set it to bombardment mission, but that was not the case.

[MichaelU]

Look who has turned up just off Midway Island. Yes, it's our old friends KB. While it is always terrifying seeing these guys, it is also something of a comfort to know where they are. There is a lot of unloading going on at Dutch Harbor, and this will soon be suspended and transports running for the hills. Saratoga was also up there, training air groups and just waiting for an unescorted attempt to take Adak. But it looks like she will also be vacating the area shortly.

[MichaelU]

And here is the DEI situation. In red you can see the enemy dispositions. The two light carrier groups that have spent much time in the Celebes Sea are in or heading towards Badelboab. They're either replenishing for a push against Rabaul, or to come back to support DEI, or maybe even both. Time will tell.

While the cat is away etc, so this looks like a good turn to bring the Indomitable task force, consisting of it, the Hermes and the Jacksonville, north to try hit the enemy cruisers. At the same time the Renown is going to steam in looking for trouble. A good slapping for that cruiser task force would go some way to slowing down any further push on Java.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: MichaelU

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The bombardment AI has the run-in, run-out algorithm that requires the TF to get a certain distance away and therefore stages the run-in from a close enough point. That should not happen for a SCTF - no special AI for that. If it was sprinting up to Balikpapan it may have had to refuel the DDs.

Don't think that was the case either, it had just come out of Soerebaja and everyone was fueled to the max. But despite being a SCTF and being ordered to move the 10 hexes to Balipapan at full speed, the force ended the turn 8 hexes off Balkipapan, or one full speed move away. Exactly the behaviour I would expect from a bombardment TF.

I thought I may have made a mistake and set it to bombardment mission, but that was not the case.

The only other thing I can think of is that the routing was not set to "Direct/Absolute", so the TF balked at nearby enemy air threats? That can happen even if the air threat has not been detected by you (the AI knows it is there).

[MichaelU]

Dec 21, 1941

The battle of Makassar Strait, captured for posterity in the picture below, is the biggest surface combat of the war to date, and probably for a long time to come. It was always likely to decide the future course of Japan's DEI ambitions -- a bad result here could have held him up for some time. So it's unfortunate we got owned.

It's a daytime surface combat where the Renown TF gets an opportunity to put aside the embarrassment of not smashing up the light carriers. But the embarrassment just keeps coming.

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Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 65,98, Range 21,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 7
CA Haguro, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Nachi, Shell hits 1
CA Ashigara, Shell hits 1
DD Mutsuki
DD Kisaragi, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Mochizuki
DD Mazabuki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
BC Renown, Shell hits 2
CA Cornwall, Shell hits 3, on fire
CA Exeter, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
CL Tromp, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
CL Danae, Shell hits 15, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Glasgow, Shell hits 14, heavy fires
DD Tenedos
DD Sands, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD King, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Lawrence, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD John Barry, Shell hits 1

At the end of the battle, the Danae and Sands sink, the Tromp is limping badly, and just about every other ship is looking battered to some degree. With the exception of the Renown, which has taken only superficial damage. It's back to Soerebaja for initial repairs, and then the long haul to shipyards for a lot of these guys.

[MichaelU]

It is not appallingly bad though. The Adelaide, lurking off northern Borneo, surprises and sinks a transport heading into Wewak.

And it looks like we have discovered the invasions force inbound for Midway.

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Sub attack near Wake Island at 144,91

Japanese Ships
xAK Otori Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
xAK Yosida Maru #1
DD Yakaze

Allied Ships
SS Argonaut

Japanese ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

The weird thing is that with all the careful positioning of subs, this is one that was heading back to Pearl Harbor for conversion and just happened to stumble onto this group. Still, we'll take the hits when we can get them.
It's amazing we have got no sub attacks in the Makassar Straits. The Japanese forces are sailing across a carpet of submarines -- the CAs we just fought end the turn in the same hex as two of them.

And the ground combats just get worse for the Japanese at Manila. He is going to have to reinforce if he wants to take it.

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Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 32182 troops, 266 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 831

Defending force 40468 troops, 402 guns, 171 vehicles, Assault Value = 776

Japanese adjusted assault: 67

Allied adjusted defense: 811

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 12 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
2608 casualties reported
Squads: 50 destroyed, 110 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 24 (20 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 36 (9 destroyed, 27 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1024 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 52 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 12 (3 destroyed, 9 disabled)

[BBfanboy]

Those Japanese CAs are very tough opponents - great experience too and good leaders. Looks like Haguro might sink (check IJN FP losses) which would make the battle a plus for you.

[MichaelU]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Those Japanese CAs are very tough opponents - great experience too and good leaders. Looks like Haguro might sink (check IJN FP losses) which would make the battle a plus for you.

Tracker shows 2 Petes and 1 Jake lost. Which is the float plane complement of the Haguro. Now I'm not feeling so bad about the outcome of the battle.

[MichaelU]

Looks like the fun in Palembang will be coming to an end soon. Two or three Japanese forces seem to be heading that way, and we don't really have much to stop them. Once he gets some proper air support in there he can pack the place with fighters. For now though, our Hurricanes continue to rule the skies, putting down 6 Oscars this turn for just 1 loss.

It also looks like he is gathering his light carriers at Badelboab, and we expect the next push on Rabaul to have copious carrier backing.

[Dirtnap86]

Honestly, an obsolete CL and DD for a modern IJN CA?

Pretty good trade, imo. Danae is a 'D' Class cruiser, 1920s vintage and DD Sands is about the same. He only gets the heavy cruisers he starts with; with I think one more in the pipe (Ibuki), at least in stock. Not sure if BTS gives them more heavy cruisers in the build queue or not. The Agano class CLs are pretty good (and I'm partial to Oyodo if only for her uniqueness), but the IJN doesn't get a lot of sub-capital cruisers.

[ny59giants]

2 at start and 4 more to be built of the Niitaka Class CA.

[Dirtnap86]

Whew 4 triple 8" turrets along with murderous 10cm DP secondary battery.

Does the USN get Montanas to compensate for these? [:P]

(I play World of Warships, and that's the top Cruiser for the Japanese line, the Zao. The USN line tops out at the Des Moines, auto loaded 8" guns are fun.)

I'd rather see more of the 40mm bofors knock offs than more 10cm DP guns, but if wishes were fishes and all.

I do wonder besides the conversions, what new toys the USN gets, her old cruisers can't even remotely stand up to a beast like that, I think even a Baltimore would have trouble. I'll have to go look up the mod.