The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Sweet, in severe storms no less.[&o]

I guess he will complain about those 8 hex strikes, like some other AFBs.[;)]

Allies have those baby carriers/fighter replenishment groups that automatically forward fighters if in range, so you always need to kill more than you think.

PS: I wouldn't count the Essex out unless you see it in the plane losses for the day.

One, yes, the severe storms messed up the strike more than I realised at first. Lots of groups lost, returned to base or split off. The Allies were a bit fortunate.

Secondly, I wish I had been closer as he wasn't flying strikes. I had CVEs set to take one for the team, only four hexes from the DS, filled with A6M8 on 0 hex CAP and with 200 Georges flying cover from the base at Wakkanai plus Sapporo's bleeding CAP, but no joy. The Allies weren't flying, so I could've gotten a nice coordinated 6 hex strike and not even taken a hit for it!

With as many as he's been flying around here I'm guessing everybody's got CAP flying, not replenishment, but I could be wrong. Those work off of land too so he could have them based at Attu and if he's in range they'll fly in.

As for the Essex, the ship losses screen is interesting. The Franklin is listed as lost, and I don't think it is, ( I saw a 3 ship CV TF near Shikuka the turn after, and I assume that's it), but the Franklin is listed at whatever these beasts are usually worth in VPs, like 378 or something. Essex is only listed at 340.

i think that means he scuttled it. Which would make sense.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna




Huh?

To strike anything

I thought the comment was about searching, not striking.

I thought it was about 0 hex strikes from Shikuka. [:)]

[Drakanel]

I do read both AARs, so I am curious. How do you feel about this whole invasion?

Do you mind a lot he took Sakhalin Island? Or maybe, are you ok with it, as in, better this than something else?


I like to be surprised by the moves players do, so I'm not THAT interested in future moves. But it's really fun to see what the actors think about things that already happened. [:D]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Drakanel

I do read both AARs, so I am curious. How do you feel about this whole invasion?

Do you mind a lot he took Sakhalin Island? Or maybe, are you ok with it, as in, better this than something else?


I like to be surprised by the moves players do, so I'm not THAT interested in future moves. But it's really fun to see what the actors think about things that already happened. [:D]

I'd rather he hadn't taken anything. [;)]

This is a Scen 1 game in which the Japanese lost 3 CVs on turn 2. There are no stacking limits so the Allies, once they have CV superiority, can essentially land anywhere they want, as long as they decide to take only a few bases with massive stacks of troops.

Is this better than something else? No. But that's not my choice. It's his. Do I mind? [:D]

I understand what you mean, but I don't think this way. I think the Allies could have launched an attack just about anywhere and caused a lot of problems. Each area has pluses and minuses. Here I'll have to defend industry, but I have the opportunity to keep bringing oil/fuel (for now) and to strike at Allied LOC (for now).

I'd like to make it into 45 and onward with some fighting ability intact. So far I've been able to take a bit of the Allied machine for this bit of land lost, but not enough to change the direction of the game. So I need to really fight to make this difficult for him.

It is what is happening. I'lll do my best to respond to that with some creativity![:)]

[Bif1961]

His DS, what remains, will have to leave the area to resupply at some point and that is when your Alpha strike can come back and cripple some of his vulnerable convoys. Getting supplies to feed all those hungry troops he landed will be his Achilles heel. Good job attriting his planes and his DS, down one CV sun, one heavily damaged and possibly sinking a CVL crippled possibly 2, that would be 240 less DS planes. If he had 1,000 planes in his DS you knocked him down 25%. it is time to keep the pressure on with your land based air groups fill out you carriers and wait for his DS to depart the area.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

His DS, what remains, will have to leave the area to resupply at some point and that is when your Alpha strike can come back and cripple some of his vulnerable convoys. Getting supplies to feed all those hungry troops he landed will be his Achilles heel. Good job attriting his planes and his DS, down one CV sun, one heavily damaged and possibly sinking a CVL crippled possibly 2, that would be 240 less DS planes. If he had 1,000 planes in his DS you knocked him down 25%. it is time to keep the pressure on with your land based air groups fill out you carriers and wait for his DS to depart the area.

He should be getting about a CV a month by now, so I have to keep pushing and use the knowledge that I can hurt the Allies to my benefit. I think Canoerebel has played a lot of games where the Allies end up dictating the outcomes, even if the resistance is intense. I'd like to change that a bit, to throw a wrench in the plans and see how he responds.

Will he become gunshy? Will he push harder and get more creative?

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 8, 1944[/font]

---

The 8th saw the DS backing out of range into the shadows somewhere. The number of ships in port at Shikuka has gone up to around 300+ now. There are still some CV TFs near the edge of Shikuka on East side of Sakhalin. I'll recharge and replenish and then look for an opportunity.

On this day the sweeps hit Toyohara effectively, getting to the low level CAP and downing even the best Allied airframes with few losses. Georges are decent sweepers right now. Not for much longer, but at least for right now.

Subs continued the hunt for CVs. I lost 3 but one had a shot at Intrepid and missed with all 4 of the spread! [:@]

Night runs attacked a few more CVs with no hits.

Prome was the focus of the Southern Allied air force, with 4Es following sweepers and going for the troops in this clear hex. All told, the troops took about 15 disabled, but flak shot down about 15 2E and 4E and also 6 Spit VIII that were bombing from 5k. Odd. Must have been a missed setting.

The ground forces held easily, with the Allies trying a DA that got a very low 1:2, destroying another 261 infantry squads and disabling 1252 more. Lots of vehicles, guns and engineers disabled too. I never in a million years thought Prome would be this much trouble, especially in a non-stacking limits game.
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 8, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sub attack near Toyohara at 126,47

Japanese Ships
SS RO-114, hits 11

Allied Ships
CV Intrepid
BB Alabama
CA Salt Lake City
CL Montpelier
CLAA Juneau
DD Welles
DD Porter
DD Maury
DD Gridley
DD Craven

SS RO-114 launches 4 torpedoes at CV Intrepid
DD Porter fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Maury fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Gridley attacking submerged sub ....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 158th(Sep) Infantry Regiment, at 124,45 , near Toyohara

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 37,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 32

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 8
P-39N1 Airacobra x 4
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 16
F4U-1 Corsair x 5
F6F-3 Hellcat x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 3 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 2 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 6 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 158th(Sep) Infantry Regiment, at 124,45 , near Toyohara

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 39,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 33

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 3
P-39N1 Airacobra x 4
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 10
F4U-1 Corsair x 5
F6F-3 Hellcat x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x N1K2-J George sweeping at 35300 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 55th Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17F Fortress x 3
B-24D1 Liberator x 5
B-24J Liberator x 44

Allied aircraft losses
B-17F Fortress: 2 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 3 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 37 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
59 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 17000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 31st Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 6
A-20G Havoc x 14
B-17E Fortress x 3
B-24D Liberator x 10
B-24J Liberator x 21
B-25D1 Mitchell x 48
B-25H Mitchell x 12

Allied aircraft losses
A-20G Havoc: 8 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24D Liberator: 7 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 13 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-25D1 Mitchell: 20 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 3 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese ground losses:
176 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing from 17000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Prome (55,50)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 216995 troops, 3056 guns, 3701 vehicles, Assault Value = 4858

Defending force 119732 troops, 1147 guns, 1024 vehicles, Assault Value = 3492

Allied adjusted assault: 3927

Japanese adjusted defense: 7705

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3429 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 205 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 55 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 52 disabled
Guns lost 141 (6 destroyed, 135 disabled)
Vehicles lost 37 (16 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
16460 casualties reported
Squads: 261 destroyed, 1252 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 541 disabled
Engineers: 22 destroyed, 385 disabled
Guns lost 500 (37 destroyed, 463 disabled)
Vehicles lost 400 (16 destroyed, 384 disabled)

Assaulting units:
5th Indian Division
6th Australian Division
39th Indian Division
268th Motorised Brigade
Americal Infantry Division
255th Indian Tank Brigade
7th Australian Division
41st Infantry Division
9th Australian Division
40th Infantry Division
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
14th Indian Division
193rd Tank Battalion
29th British Brigade
14th Army Engineer Battalion
23rd Indian Division
3rd Cavalry Regiment
81st (West African) Division
26th Indian/B Division
26th Indian/A Division
754th Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
27th Infantry Division
19th Indian Division
26th Indian/C Division
96th Coast AA Regiment
223rd Field Artillery Battalion
1st West African AA Regiment
XXXIII Indian Corps
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
226th Field Artillery Battalion
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
70th Coast AA Regiment
30th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
78th Coast AA Regiment
XXXIII Corps RIASC Base Force
20th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
31st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
205th Coast AA Regiment
IV Indian Corps
197th Coast AA Regiment
122nd British AT Gun Regiment
208th Coast AA Regiment
I/14th Army RIASC Base Force
X' Force
1st RM Heavy AA Regiment
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
16th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
77th Coast AA Regiment
85th British AT Gun Regiment
175th USAAF Base Force
26th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
8th Mahratta AT Gun Regiment
23rd AA Bde
Southeast Asia
858th Engineer Aviation Battalion

Defending units:
2nd Division
55th Division
4th RTA Division
14th Division
5th Division
24th Ind.Mixed Brigade
3rd RTA Division
1st Tank Division
31st Division
6th RTA Division
18th Army
5th Mortar Battalion
11th Air Defense AA Regiment
23rd AA Regiment
51st Field AA Battalion
13th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
15th Const Co
53rd Field AA Battalion
43rd Const Co
50th Field AA Battalion
12th Air Defense AA Battalion
23rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
44th Ind.AA Gun Co
7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
36th JNAF AF Unit

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

[mind_messing]

I think what you need is get everything the IJN has that is armed and isn't needed for escort duties up to the Kuriles. Flood the area with small combatants (DD's, E's, MTB's, even PB's) to cloud the battlespace and have a few choice formations of bigger ships waiting in the wings for a move in.

24 hour floatplane search from the smaller islands and dive bombers on the bigger islands to pick off smaller targets means the Allies need to CAP everything.

Sure, roaming Allied DD flotillas will kill a fair share of it, but you'll trigger reactions in the Allied TF's, and all's it takes is one bad reaction to leave something exposed. Even E's and PB's can make a respectable showing against merchantmen and they trade very well in terms of VP's.

[Alfred]

According to posts #1527 and 1547 Allied infantry forces at Prome and Sakhalin Island include
 
Prome
 
14 divs
4 bdes
1 rgt
 
Sakhalin Island
 
9 divs
6 rgts
3 bdes
 
Substantial tank, artillery and engineering units are also present at both locations.  Significantly too are important Command HQs like Pacific Ocean Area and SWPac.
 
More importantly is to note who is actually contributing the units.  Note how the AIF is at Prome and 2 Australian CMF divs (plus 2 NZ bdes) are on Sakhalin.  Also note the presence on Sakhalin of the two Pearl Harbor divs (the 24th and 25th).
 
What all this means is that your opponent has stripped his rear areas of important garrisons.  It is possible that he has moved in some LCUs
to cover these "rear areas" but that is not a certainty.  What is certain is that those areas are now both undergarrisoned and lack HQs to provide defensive bonuses.
 
You will not come out ahead in a battle of attrition at Prome or Sakhalin.  What you can do is to buy time at these locations to counter attack elsewhere, paying careful attention to where the Allied garrisons have been weakened.  An immediate air recon is needed to identify the wea spots.  Candidates include:
 
1.  Burma.
 
Two immediate possibilities spring to mind.
 
(a) trap the Allied army at Prome.  This entails moving units across the hexsides which were crossed by the Allied units themselves.  Small IJA units, even without any AV, will suffice
 
(b) recapture weakly held Allied bases to lengthen the Allied LOC into Prome.  Very likely the main Allied garrisons will be provided by Chinese troops who are fragile.
 
Free up IJA units by abandoning all "static" non base positions.  Every unit standing guard in the mountains behind Paoshan is a wasted unit.  You don't need them there in order to maintain your own LOC.  These units should be manoeuvring to strike at the Allies in a concentrated manner.
 
2.  India
 
Consider land raids against shallow Indian bases.  Your opponent is relying upon local static units, CD units and base forces to defend them.  Shallow bases include Cocanada.  Don't plan on staying, just to wreck local infrastructure.
 
3.  Australia
 
Even more so than India.  By mid 1944 a fair bit of the original Australian OOB has disbanded.  Combined with what is over in Burma and Sakhalin there are bound to be significant holes there where you can gain strategic VPs.  Immediate recon with Glen equipped subs is in order to identify invasion sites.  Again raid and leave.  Send only small kamikaze invasions without KB support.
 
4.  Pearl Harbor and Hawaii
 
Recon it, you may be surprised at how little is there.  Again small kamikaze invasions without KB support.
 
5.  KB
 
Either keep around Sakhalin/Hokkaido or go silent.  This is to keep the DS around to protect the lodgement and therefore not available to contest your actions elsewhere.  It will also help to keep suppressed any Allied ideas that you might be considering offensive actions elsewhere.
 
 
The basic point is that once the Allies land on the Home Islands, every single Japanese LCU which is not in immediate contact with the enemy is a wasted asset.  You do not have the assets or the time to simply wait passively for the next Allied move.  You have to maneouver against meaningful Allied positions.  Combat for the sake of combat is pointless as that is merely playing the attrition game which always favours the Allied player.  But threatening positions/assets which support the Allied war effort is another thing.  In this context, racking up VPs is relevant for that undermines the Allied war effort.
 
Alfred

[Lecivius]

Fiendishly clever, Alfred is. Slightly afraid of him, I am.

[Bif1961]

I hear the refrain "There's no place like Prome , there's no place like Prome!"

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

I hear the refrain "There's no place like Prome , there's no place like Prome!"

If he keeps ploughing away at it like this, I may start singing that![:)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I think what you need is get everything the IJN has that is armed and isn't needed for escort duties up to the Kuriles. Flood the area with small combatants (DD's, E's, MTB's, even PB's) to cloud the battlespace and have a few choice formations of bigger ships waiting in the wings for a move in.

24 hour floatplane search from the smaller islands and dive bombers on the bigger islands to pick off smaller targets means the Allies need to CAP everything.

Sure, roaming Allied DD flotillas will kill a fair share of it, but you'll trigger reactions in the Allied TF's, and all's it takes is one bad reaction to leave something exposed. Even E's and PB's can make a respectable showing against merchantmen and they trade very well in terms of VP's.

I have about 75% of it up there now. A contingent of the Ansyu PBs still on the way, plus a few of the fast E and one TF of CL.

I've been probing with small surface forces to see what his react is like. So far he's very reserved with his surface forces. I sent in about three TFs to hit a merchant TF straying out from Toyohara and it either zagged or they just missed it, but no DDs or DEs reacted. They're mostly on ASW from what I can tell, and pounding my subs.

I just looked and in the past month the IJN has lost about 15 subs, the Allies (reported) to have lost 12. Our ASW air and E combo is lethal if they stray too close to the HI. He seems to be pulling them back farther now that the main op has been successful.

At some point he has to shepherd some of the stuff now at Sakhalin back toward the Aleutians to refill with supply and whatever else he'll wan to bring. That may be a time to create some chaos in the way you're imagining.

I suspect all APA/AKA/LSD/LST will remain in Shikuka. I bet there are about 200 AA guns there, but I may give it a try before there are also 800 fighters in the base. [:)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

According to posts #1527 and 1547 Allied infantry forces at Prome and Sakhalin Island include

Prome

14 divs
4 bdes
1 rgt

Sakhalin Island

9 divs
6 rgts
3 bdes

Substantial tank, artillery and engineering units are also present at both locations.  Significantly too are important Command HQs like Pacific Ocean Area and SWPac.

More importantly is to note who is actually contributing the units.  Note how the AIF is at Prome and 2 Australian CMF divs (plus 2 NZ bdes) are on Sakhalin.  Also note the presence on Sakhalin of the two Pearl Harbor divs (the 24th and 25th).

What all this means is that your opponent has stripped his rear areas of important garrisons.  It is possible that he has moved in some LCUs
to cover these "rear areas" but that is not a certainty.  What is certain is that those areas are now both undergarrisoned and lack HQs to provide defensive bonuses.

Thanks Alfred. A lot to consider as usual.

I'll respond in parts. I've not reported on some of the other units "visible" over the past weeks in the Burma area. I know of at least another 3 Indian IDs there. In addition the entire Chinese army has been recuperating in India since Torsten bent our HR about China and sent them there. So there are no Chinese units in China.

I've been seeing China as a VP storage vessel of a kind. Because he's now played his hand and sent the majority of Pacific units North, I feel even more that China will not be attacked by amphibious ops. I've stopped all forts building there now to conserve supply, and I'm only leaving high VP (x10) bases continuing to improve infrastructure.

There is also an HR (asked for by Torsten and which led to my entire Chinese attack and hold policy) which does not allow bombing of Chinese industry. So it's largely self sufficient and strong.

This point is only relevant to your next points in that the Chinese army is now flooding up through the mountains to begin trying to infiltrate China. I think this will be a large and potentially continuing source of new VPs as the Chinese do not have the necessary engineers or artillery to beat well entrenched IJA divisions in what is mostly x3 terrain, especially with poor and inefficient supply trails behind them through non-road mountain hexes.

Secondly, the Thais will vanish in about 50 turns, meaning I'll be 1,500 AV short of very experienced defenders (all with bought out commanders and 55-60 exp). My defensive line is also now being challenged on the Chang Mai side, and that will require some retreat and reinforcement.

So I'll have to begin looking at how I'll plan these moves and see if I can keep the majority of Allied units occupied here. The danger is allowing a breakthrough that can also be accompanied by a quick transfer to amphib ops behind my lines.

[obvert]

Right. So. Lots of potential ideas. [&o]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

You will not come out ahead in a battle of attrition at Prome or Sakhalin.  What you can do is to buy time at these locations to counter attack elsewhere, paying careful attention to where the Allied garrisons have been weakened.  An immediate air recon is needed to identify the wea spots.  Candidates include:

1.  Burma.

Two immediate possibilities spring to mind.

(a) trap the Allied army at Prome.  This entails moving units across the hexsides which were crossed by the Allied units themselves.  Small IJA units, even without any AV, will suffice

(b) recapture weakly held Allied bases to lengthen the Allied LOC into Prome.  Very likely the main Allied garrisons will be provided by Chinese troops who are fragile.

Free up IJA units by abandoning all "static" non base positions.  Every unit standing guard in the mountains behind Paoshan is a wasted unit.  You don't need them there in order to maintain your own LOC.  These units should be manoeuvring to strike at the Allies in a concentrated manner.

While intriguing, the IJA has good defensive capability at this point but poor offensive potential. I lack the ability to begin infiltrating Allied lines with enough speed to not be caught and stopped by combined armor movement to hold my forces followed by a pounding from the air. I can hold in a few spots due to the massive build-up of AA units in hexes at Prome and Rangoon, but outside of these spots he can hurt Japanese forces with steady 4E strikes. This would be even more apparent moving into the central valley clear hexes (and in movement mode or reserve mode, without forts).

His rear areas along the Arakan are held by large bought out Chinese Corps. One stack is threatening a river crossing just behind Prome and I've moved 2k AV into that hex, so if he crosses and is shattered, there is a small chance to threaten a move that way. I don't think he'll actually cross though.

As for capturing the Arakan bases, I can fly paras in but the is the only option really. Even Ramree is well defended, and would require a river crossing if not tried by para drop. I'm sure it has high forts by now. I've also not seen Chindits yet and I actually am worried about drops behind my lines, but these troops could also be flown in to protect anything at the last minute if needed.

2.  India

Consider land raids against shallow Indian bases.  Your opponent is relying upon local static units, CD units and base forces to defend them.  Shallow bases include Cocanada.  Don't plan on staying, just to wreck local infrastructure.

The RN is still active and threatening in this area. I know he will have a number of good surface units in addition to the growing number of CV, CVL and CVE the RN continues to get from late 44 into 45. In addition, he has massive air forces here which without KB support would easily ruin even a fast transport run to the coast between Madras and Calcutta.

This kind of move would require surprise, and although I could guess he doesn't have air patrols in this area at all, I'll not make a choice that could lose a lot of VPs on the chance that my opponent is incompetent. [;)]

3.  Australia

Even more so than India.  By mid 1944 a fair bit of the original Australian OOB has disbanded.  Combined with what is over in Burma and Sakhalin there are bound to be significant holes there where you can gain strategic VPs.  Immediate recon with Glen equipped subs is in order to identify invasion sites.  Again raid and leave.  Send only small kamikaze invasions without KB support.

This kind of move has enormous potential for success due to several key situations.

I still hold Perth and surrounding bases, and there is supply. There are also no indications the Aussies are moving in this direction.

I also still hold Darwin and bases up the road from it. The Allies do have some troops ready to move here.

There are forces in the DEI that could be repurposed for a flash invasion of some place around Port Augusta, ideally above the LOD, (I'd have to look for adequate air bases and ranges to targets). Resource targets in Central South OZ are massively vulnerable and could provide thousands of VPs.

I like this idea also as it would force some reaction requiring air assets, ground troops and even some naval assets. On the other hand I could use disposable units, some air transport, obsolete airframes and non-expert pilots.

I'll look into it further. [:)]

4.  Pearl Harbor and Hawaii

Recon it, you may be surprised at how little is there.  Again small kamikaze invasions without KB support.

The central Pacific is too congested. He's still taking bases in the Marshalls actively, and I have no units nearby to recon as far as Hawaii. All subs are now either moving to or in the Home Island area. Flotillas of Allied ships and subs will be moving this way consistently as well, so surprise is unlikely.

5.  KB

Either keep around Sakhalin/Hokkaido or go silent.  This is to keep the DS around to protect the lodgement and therefore not available to contest your actions elsewhere.  It will also help to keep suppressed any Allied ideas that you might be considering offensive actions elsewhere.


The basic point is that once the Allies land on the Home Islands, every single Japanese LCU which is not in immediate contact with the enemy is a wasted asset.  You do not have the assets or the time to simply wait passively for the next Allied move.  You have to maneouver against meaningful Allied positions.  Combat for the sake of combat is pointless as that is merely playing the attrition game which always favours the Allied player.  But threatening positions/assets which support the Allied war effort is another thing.  In this context, racking up VPs is relevant for that undermines the Allied war effort.

Alfred

I completely agree that VPs should be my focus here, and any way of increasing my non-diminishing VPs (non-base VPs) is useful to consider.

The first priority as I see it is to make any further Allied landings in the North both difficult and potentially unsuccessful. I do have the troops on the way to surpass his numbers, especially in a defensive situation, so if I can get them into critical places in time it will significantly reduce the potential for securing his LOC and furthering his position.

The KB will stay near Hokkaido. I need to also thwart any potential moves into the inner Sea to take Islands North of Honshu. These are vulnerable, although now growing in defences.

Next I want to make the resupply and reinforcement of his current positions difficult. This will mean paying close attention to his tendencies, having deep ocean search to alert of incoming threats, and the KB going dark most of the time. I'll have to also begin mining the Kuriles. I have a lot of unused sub dropped mines that will be perfect for this.

Thanks again for the detailed analysis and many great ideas Alfred. Always makes me consider the game more deeply to hear your thoughts and benefit from your experience. [:)][&o]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 9, 1944[/font]

---

This turn I tried to reach out to test defences at Shikuka. he's already got the base to level 3. Won't be long before 500-800 fighters are flying CAP here. If I want to do anything the time is now.

Georges do okay, getting about 1:1.5 while sweeping at max altitude. P-47s were set up high but most others were low. I didn't see a lot of the DS groups here, but it looks like the CVE groups are around and supporting. So where is the DS? It hasn't gone past Paramushiro, so I think it's hiding in the distance or disbanded at Shikuka. I doubt it would be, but the potential that any major ships are disbanded (including the CV Franklin potentially) among the 350+ listed makes this a tantalising target. I tried night bombing this turn but bombers did not fly.

I'll hold to using sweeps for now, continue to sweep Toyohara (although no CAP was up this turn) and prepare for a possible strike depending on recon of Shikuka.

I managed to bring out a fragment of the 20th division from Shikuka and the Toyohara brigade (which combines with another later to form a division). They'll rebuild on Hokkaido. Brigades are flying successfully to the Kuriles bases and more units are arriving fro mHonshu as well as some transiting from the Marianas. I'm especially interested in adding more of the good CD guns I'd placed there on Hokkaido and on the Kuriles. It'd be nice to even have them to react to transits through the island bases. I'll eventually hope to mine the narrow straits as well in especially the shallow sea hexes.

In Burma the Allies continue to bombard, which after the recent negative combat and resulting disablements ends up in a loss of significant numbers of arty and support troops. An entire unit was destroyed. The 28cm and 30cm heavy siege guns here are doing their job. [:)]
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 9, 1944
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Submarine attack near Shikuka at 128,43

Japanese Ships
SS I-10, hits 40, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DE Bowers
DE Austin
DE Neuendorf
DE Darby

SS I-10 is located by DE Bowers
I-10 diving deep ....

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Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 39,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 43

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 13
P-39N1 Airacobra x 13
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 29
P-51B Mustang x 8
F4U-1 Corsair x 9
F4U-1A Corsair x 11
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x N1K2-J George sweeping at 35000 feet

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Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 40,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 45

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 10
P-39N1 Airacobra x 8
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 26
P-51B Mustang x 8
F4U-1 Corsair x 5
F4U-1A Corsair x 9
F6F-3 Hellcat x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 2 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed
P-51B Mustang: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x N1K2-J George sweeping at 35000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 39,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 29

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 6
P-39N1 Airacobra x 11
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 22
P-51B Mustang x 5
F4U-1 Corsair x 6
F4U-1A Corsair x 10
F6F-3 Hellcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 2 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Prome (55,50)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4620 troops, 198 guns, 161 vehicles, Assault Value = 3067

Defending force 116761 troops, 1146 guns, 1017 vehicles, Assault Value = 3211

Japanese ground losses:
28 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
306 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 22 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 49 (26 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (3 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

[Lowpe]

If I played the Allies, I would never launch a deep invasion while the Japanese held Perth. Just couldn't justify it as a decision. But that is me.[;)]

I suspect CR's next move will be to shore up his line of supply to Sakhalin. I doubt he is looking to expand west.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

If I played the Allies, I would never launch a deep invasion while the Japanese held Perth. Just couldn't justify it as a decision. But that is me.[;)]

I suspect CR's next move will be to shore up his line of supply to Sakhalin. I doubt he is looking to expand west.

Well, I bet he thought about going further West. I think he would've wanted a big CV clash at an earlier moment in this invasion, based on how slow he was going at first. I'd hope that he now tries to take some bases in the Kuriles after a few weeks. But not before!! [:)]

[ny59giants]

Bihoro: Can you send in one Judy group with massive George escorts from here with range 6 to go after his outlying TFs that are 2 hexes out from Shikuka?

Moonlight is at 78%. Are you setting anything up to do some night time SC TF attacks?

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 10-11, 1944[/font]

---

Only one major event to report on the 10th. The Allies shock over the river one hex South of Prome. Two big Chinese Corps lead the way, and they do much better than I would have expected. One small unit was completely destroyed, most likely a cavalry unit. The rest are probably not in good shape, but again, I don't have enough here to boot them out backward. They would need twice as many troops to push ours out thought too, so it looks like another dead end for the Allies. They can open a hex side to the North though and move troops through. If that happens I still have inside lines and can shift to the other road near Toungou quickly.

On the 11th I tried something. A bit foolish, but I learned some things, including that I maybe should hang back with LBA against the Allies while the DS is around.

I noticed the airfield at Shikuka is increasing a level a day. The number of ships in port is going up about 100 a day! So I decided to try a high level bombing run. The rollover showed 200 fighters in the base, and I knew sweeps could take care of those, but I didn't think he'd risk the DS CAP there again. I was wrong.

I'd never tied a max altitude Helen strike, but thought maybe with the 80 exp pilots I have oodles of, this might be the time. They're quick planes, and I set a massive LR CAP over the base. Trouble was that I was thinking my Jacks might be the highest altitude plane around. As it turns out the DS Hellcats were there in abundance, and they got over them by a few hundred feet. There weren't many in any one strike defence, but due to their numbers, they kept coming throughout.

I'll not show the reports in full, but the list is we lost a lot of Jacks, Helens, and Ki-100, while the Franks did very well in sweeps later and cleared the Hellcats and Corsairts out at over 2:1. So it's a bittersweet day. Although watching the turn made me a bit sick, and second guess myself, I realise that replacing 150+ DS CAP fighter may slow his roll at least a few more days, and that could give me time I need.

I could have accomplished just as much with only sweeps most likely, but at least the Helens are my most plentiful 2E and the other fighter pools are decent as well. I now have to get a bit more conservative though, and start making him go on the offensive. Psychologically I'll continue to be as unpredictable as possible.
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 10, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 55,51 (near Prome)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 63847 troops, 447 guns, 192 vehicles, Assault Value = 2033

Defending force 65895 troops, 684 guns, 1285 vehicles, Assault Value = 2019

Allied adjusted assault: 1253

Japanese adjusted defense: 4955

Allied assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1042 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 167 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 33 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Guns lost 96 (13 destroyed, 83 disabled)
Vehicles lost 45 (2 destroyed, 43 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
5345 casualties reported
Squads: 49 destroyed, 329 disabled
Non Combat: 102 destroyed, 67 disabled
Engineers: 92 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 90 (16 destroyed, 74 disabled)
Vehicles lost 72 (49 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
IV Corps Engineer Battalion
5th Chinese Corps
50th Indian Para Brigade
23rd Chindit Brigade
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
Guides Cavalry Regiment
6th Chinese Corps

Defending units:
48th Division
2nd Tank Division
18th Tank Regiment
18th Division
11th Tank Regiment
32nd Ind.Mixed Brigade
14th Tank Regiment
7th RTA Division
32nd Air Defense AA Battalion
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Medium Mortar Battalion
7th RF Gun Battalion
9th RF Gun Battalion
2nd Air Defense AA Regiment
3rd Ind.AA Gun Co
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
52nd Field AA Battalion
11th Air Defense AA Battalion
60th Field AA Battalion
10th RF Gun Battalion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Prome (55,50)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4253 troops, 174 guns, 158 vehicles, Assault Value = 3462

Defending force 116938 troops, 1147 guns, 1020 vehicles, Assault Value = 3228

Japanese ground losses:
157 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 65 (62 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 35 (26 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 11, 1944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 188 NM, estimated altitude 41,380 feet.
Estimated time to target is 59 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 52
J2M3 Jack x 141
N1K2-J George x 55
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 38

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 27
P-39D Airacobra x 10
P-39N1 Airacobra x 17
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 85
P-51B Mustang x 13
F4U-1 Corsair x 7
F4U-1A Corsair x 249
F6F-3 Hellcat x 642

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 29 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 8 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x J2M3 Jack sweeping at 38380 feet

CAP engaged:
VF-9 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
VF-71 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 15 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 38800.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 53 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 37,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 78
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 38

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 23
P-39D Airacobra x 9
P-39N1 Airacobra x 17
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 80
P-51B Mustang x 13
F4U-1 Corsair x 7
F4U-1A Corsair x 228
F6F-3 Hellcat x 600

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 20 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 14 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x N1K2-J George sweeping at 35300 feet *
1 x N1K2-J George sweeping at 35300 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 155 NM, estimated altitude 42,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 46 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 1
N1K1-J George x 26
N1K2-J George x 6
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 38
Ki-100-I Tony x 12

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 23
P-39D Airacobra x 7
P-39N1 Airacobra x 16
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 76
P-51B Mustang x 13
F4U-1 Corsair x 7
F4U-1A Corsair x 220
F6F-3 Hellcat x 535

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 5 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 7 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 4 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 191 NM, estimated altitude 34,070 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 21
A6M5 Zero x 41
A6M5b Zero x 29
J2M3 Jack x 2
N1K2-J George x 6
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 1
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 20
Ki-100-I Tony x 36

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 21
P-39D Airacobra x 7
P-39N1 Airacobra x 16
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 74
P-51B Mustang x 12
F4U-1 Corsair x 5
F4U-1A Corsair x 210
F6F-3 Hellcat x 514

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 6 destroyed
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 5 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 14 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 13 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 200 NM, estimated altitude 31,510 feet.
Estimated time to target is 63 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 2
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 1
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 30
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 60
Ki-100-I Tony x 25

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 21
P-39D Airacobra x 6
P-39N1 Airacobra x 16
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 67
P-51B Mustang x 12
F4U-1 Corsair x 4
F4U-1A Corsair x 206
F6F-3 Hellcat x 504

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 6 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 19 destroyed, 11 damaged
Ki-100-I Tony: 8 destroyed

No Allied losses

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Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 196 NM, estimated altitude 38,440 feet.
Estimated time to target is 48 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 13
J2M3 Jack x 2
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 1
Ki-84a Frank x 169

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 21
P-39D Airacobra x 6
P-39N1 Airacobra x 14
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 51
P-51B Mustang x 7
F4U-1 Corsair x 3
F4U-1A Corsair x 176
F6F-3 Hellcat x 441

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Corsair II: 1 destroyed
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 9 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
25 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 34440 feet *
42 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 34440 feet *
34 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 34440 feet *
41 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 34440 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 194 NM, estimated altitude 37,440 feet.
Estimated time to target is 48 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 13
J2M3 Jack x 2
Ki-84a Frank x 64

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 18
P-39D Airacobra x 5
P-39N1 Airacobra x 12
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 49
P-51B Mustang x 6
F4U-1 Corsair x 3
F4U-1A Corsair x 160
F6F-3 Hellcat x 398

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
22 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 34440 feet *
23 x Ki-84a Frank sweeping at 34440 feet *

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Prome (55,50)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3677 troops, 120 guns, 136 vehicles, Assault Value = 3595

Defending force 117061 troops, 1148 guns, 1022 vehicles, Assault Value = 3235

Japanese ground losses:
54 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 50 (50 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]