The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 16, 1944[/font]

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Next the Illustrious took two more, sending it into a steep list.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 16, 1944[/font]

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So many DBs missed the mark I began to think this wasn't going to add up well for the Japanese, but more Grace and Jills shot across the surface low and under the flak, and let go ...

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 16, 1944[/font]

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Then the John Wick with two ...

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 16, 1944[/font]

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In addition, CVL San Jacinto took one and the CVL Cowpens ate four and sank immediately.

So the day looks to be worth it, but we've ended up awfully close to the Allies for my comfort. There are a lot of very good fast BBs, CA/CLs and Fletchers in those TFs, and if he chooses to have a go at the KB, it's going to get very messy.

The surface escorts for the IJN include fast BBs Kongo and Hei in one TF, and two TFs of 3 x CA each. All TFs are 8-9 ships with the best available surface fighting DDs, Kageros, Shiratuyas, etc.

At Etorofu sit three more BB Bfs that will now react to follow orders for the CVs, plus two CL TFs that will move in to hopefully act as a rear guard, trailing all TFs by one hex. In addition are numerous fast and slow Es, SC and some subs that will stay put to announce the arrival of anything that comes with their death.

This was an all-in move, and while it didn't take the biggest of pots, it again shows that the Allies have some vulnerability if they don't set for strikes. This one ended up at 3 hexes!!! Still nothing going our way which was very lucky. The CAP would have been about 150 planes total, all set to high percentage and layered, so it still would have offered something, but the Allies could have gotten through.

And they still might. It's going to be an anxious day tomorrow. I'm not looking forward to seeing the South Dakota slammed up agains the KB. [:-]
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 16, 1944
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Paramushiro-jima at 139,49

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 34
A6M8 Zero x 291
B6N1 Jill x 20
B6N2 Jill x 50
B6N2a Jill x 32
B7A2 Grace x 63
D4Y3 Judy x 69
D4Y4 Judy x 168
N1K1 Rex x 20

Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 32
F4U-1A Corsair x 245
F6F-3 Hellcat x 702

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 5 destroyed
A6M8 Zero: 19 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 12 destroyed, 1 damaged
B6N1 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
B6N2 Jill: 9 destroyed, 11 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
B6N2a Jill: 7 destroyed, 4 damaged
B6N2a Jill: 2 destroyed by flak
B7A2 Grace: 13 destroyed, 14 damaged
B7A2 Grace: 2 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 27 destroyed, 2 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 3 destroyed by flak
D4Y4 Judy: 61 destroyed, 19 damaged
D4Y4 Judy: 8 destroyed by flak
N1K1 Rex: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 17 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Salt Lake City
CV Emperor Norton I.
CVL Bataan
CV Illustrious, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CVL Cowpens, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CV Death From Above, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CV John Wick, Torpedo hits 2
CVL San Jacinto, Torpedo hits 1
BC Renown, Bomb hits 1
CVL Langley
CV Saratoga
CVL Monterey
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Birmingham

4 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
4 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

Massive explosion on CVL Cowpens
Ammo storage explosion on CV Illustrious
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
Ammo storage explosion on CV Death From Above
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Death From Above

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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 16, 1944[/font]

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This is a shot of the TFs in hex. It feels like not enough now, but I know these are the best of the IJN, and more just a few hexes away moving in, I hope. I just got the turn back, with no word from Canoe, so I wonder if something is up. I'm sure he isn't happy about the last turn, and if he did it quickly, it could be a hotblooded response.

I definitely expect an influx of allied subs, and all available ASW TFs are already on the retreat path and actively searching.

I'm about to run the turn now. [X(]

[Drakanel]

Well, that was a very well executed strike. IF you can get away with it, it was certainly worth it. IF. [:D]

Now I can't wait to see the next turn.
And, his take on the situation once he posts in his AAR. The perks of reading both sides [:'(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Drakanel

Well, that was a very well executed strike. IF you can get away with it, it was certainly worth it. IF. [:D]

Now I can't wait to see the next turn.
And, his take on the situation once he posts in his AAR. The perks of reading both sides [:'(]

Yes, IF!!

It's a tough decision every time, but the later it gets, the less I'll be able to make in impact, so I have to find moments now.

Unfortunately it looks like he sent the wrong turn file, a mid-turn save, not the finished turn. Damn!

So I'll have to wait a bit. [:(]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Air Losses[/font]

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Strike plane losses are extreme. I did fly on some land based groups to fill out the missing on most CVs, just in case there is some action tomorrow.

Only 30 A6M8 were lost, and only a few pilots KIA/MIA. These guys are very tough, and get almost 2:1 against the Allied pilots with 50+ Corsairs and Hellcats lost. As long as this kind of fighter jock is flying, the KB strikes have a chance to get through.

[Lokasenna]

Ouch. Still, it looks like you bagged 1 CVL and perhaps 2 CV. That's a tithe, but not enough. You need more on the next one. Good thing your fighter losses were light.

Will you be able to park some subs (with low aggression commanders?) in prospective Deathstar TFs in future?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Ouch. Still, it looks like you bagged 1 CVL and perhaps 2 CV. That's a tithe, but not enough. You need more on the next one. Good thing your fighter losses were light.

Will you be able to park some subs (with low aggression commanders?) in prospective Deathstar TFs in future?

Tough crowd!! [:D]

Funny you mention subs ...

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 17, 1944[/font]

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This next, tense turn begins with a little bit of relief. Small, slow RO-105 sneaks between the escorts and launches 4 torpedoes at CV Saratoga. One hits but doesn't explode, but a second finds the mark and works perfectly. There is also an Ammo Storage explosion, so this CV is also headed for the yards most likely. [&o]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 17, 1944[/font]

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As predicted the Allies do send Fletchers, and they knock up against some old IJN CLs and DDs. It's a long battle that goes to the Allies, and one IJN DD sinks later in the turn.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 17, 1944[/font]

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Strangely, this was it! No more surface combats.

Unfortunately I missed one order and left some CAs with their asses hanging out here, and luckily only a small strike came in. The LR CAP from the nearby bases were angels, knocking down most of the escorts and disrupting the strikes.

The CL Kinu did take one torpedo, and a much more important ship, CA Takao ate another one. The CA should live on though.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 17, 1944[/font]

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Over the skies at Shikuka the CAP was tested again, but this time by a full set of sweeps.

These do okay, but the strange cooperating sweep penalty, where the combat lasts all of 10 passes or so, was in play here twice. Both our Jacks and Franks came in large groups and only were able to use their overwhelming strength in numbers for a brief moment, then the combat was over.

Such a weird thing to have all the groups there, and then turn around. This has to be some kind of a bug.

I think next time I'll try to mess up coordination by staggering altitudes and breaking up airframe types across multiple bases.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!! [:D]

I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't [;)].

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]June 17, 1944[/font]

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Overall it's a decent day in the air. The KB makes it back nearly to Etorofu. There are still subs to negotiate, but so far this looks to be a successful op.

I think 1 CV, 1 RN CV (small CV), and one CVL sunk. The damaged include three big CVs, two of which should be in the yards for a while with ammo or fuel explosions, and one CVL with a torpedo hit.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!! [:D]

I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't [;)].

I get it. It's great to sink them, but even 4-6 months without this many CVs can be a big blow to the Allies, assuming that is that he has to be supporting Shikuka with them. Once bombing starts from there it'll hurt me, but it'll also reduce supply for the Allies quickly.

I've got 10 more subs ready to sacrifice themselves over the next few days. I'll be interested to see which way he goes here. Does he move back through the Kuriles, or out to the Aleutians?

[Lowpe]

I disagree..air losses on the alpha strike aren't extreme, and it is a wonderful day. Nicely done couple of days here, and us JFB's need more days like this to punish these forward Kitchen sink attacks. [&o]

The Allies have suffered, and I bet you bought yourself a month or two of relatively light strategic bombing, because the Allies will struggle to bring in sufficient supplies...this is where I think you need to attack. Whatever you can do to drain Allied supplies I think will pay you back with a stronger economy for longer, or more planes if the Allies target your fighter/engine production.

I would look at your subs that get the Kaiten upgrade, and think twice before sending them in now. Also, can you get some subs off Ramree and between Alaska and Canada.

Given all those troops at Prome, I bet cargo ships are running into Ramree to pump supply there. Think targeted strikes perhaps?

Anyhow, nicely done. Gotta love the Grace.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I disagree..air losses on the alpha strike aren't extreme, and it is a wonderful day. Nicely done couple of days here, and us JFB's need more days like this to punish these forward Kitchen sink attacks. [&o]

The Allies have suffered, and I bet you bought yourself a month or two of relatively light strategic bombing, because the Allies will struggle to bring in sufficient supplies...this is where I think you need to attack. Whatever you can do to drain Allied supplies I think will pay you back with a stronger economy for longer, or more planes if the Allies target your fighter/engine production.

I would look at your subs that get the Kaiten upgrade, and think twice before sending them in now. Also, can you get some subs off Ramree and between Alaska and Canada.

Given all those troops at Prome, I bet cargo ships are running into Ramree to pump supply there. Think targeted strikes perhaps?

Anyhow, nicely done. Gotta love the Grace.

The Graces get through!!

Some combo of speed, manoeuvre and durability have made the plane extraordinary in hitting the Allies late.

The Grace is my favourite plane in game. [&o]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

Tough crowd!! [:D]

I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't [;)].

I get it. It's great to sink them, but even 4-6 months without this many CVs can be a big blow to the Allies, assuming that is that he has to be supporting Shikuka with them. Once bombing starts from there it'll hurt me, but it'll also reduce supply for the Allies quickly.

I've got 10 more subs ready to sacrifice themselves over the next few days. I'll be interested to see which way he goes here. Does he move back through the Kuriles, or out to the Aleutians?

I'm not so sure. Torpedo hits on USN CVs, the big ones, can sometimes do extremely minimal damage. The "typical" damage result from a single torpedo hit is usually in the 10-20 range, sometimes even most of it being minor damage from counter-flooding. At times, the damage can be just a couple of points of minor damage and no major damage. Given the number of hits and the damage messages shown, my guesstimate on the median outcome here would be that you probably sunk or mission-killed 2 CVs and 1 CVL, with the Saratoga being out for maybe 4-6 months at the outside (potentially as little as 2 if the explosion wasn't that bad). The others that you hit might only be out of action for 6 weeks to patch up low levels of damage. Keep in mind also that CR is not shy about using ships with some level of damage if he needs them, so long as they are operational and he has weighed the risks.

I'm also not convinced that he doesn't already have everything he needs on the Sakhalins to begin strat bombing on his own terms. If he did need to run more supplies in, LBA coverage from the Sakhalins plus the simply the still-intact CVs and CVEs that he used here would be enough to get through with what he needed.

Make no mistake, I'm not saying that you didn't net some cushion VPs here. Even if those 2 crippled CVs live, you probably traded around a 1:1 for several hundred VPs - which buys you several hundred in terms of the autovictory ratio you are trying to avoid. I'm just saying that I don't think this VP hit delays him at all at this juncture in terms of future landings or a bombing campaign.