The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

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Lowpe
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by Lowpe »

I should clarify my statement on supplies and strategic bombing. Yes, I am sure there is good supply there and most likely some strategic bombing will occur. But I think these stinging attacks will cause the Allies to slow down their operational tempo -- subsequently I think there will be a supply shortage sooner and it will curtail the strategic bombing campaign.

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should clarify my statement on supplies and strategic bombing. Yes, I am sure there is good supply there and most likely some strategic bombing will occur. But I think these stinging attacks will cause the Allies to slow down their operational tempo -- subsequently I think there will be a supply shortage sooner and it will curtail the strategic bombing campaign.


I see your clarification and raise you a further clarification!

I do not think any such supply shortage for CR will be forthcoming.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should clarify my statement on supplies and strategic bombing. Yes, I am sure there is good supply there and most likely some strategic bombing will occur. But I think these stinging attacks will cause the Allies to slow down their operational tempo -- subsequently I think there will be a supply shortage sooner and it will curtail the strategic bombing campaign.


I see your clarification and raise you a further clarification!

I do not think any such supply shortage for CR will be forthcoming.

Haha! [:D]

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RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I'm not so sure. Torpedo hits on USN CVs, the big ones, can sometimes do extremely minimal damage. The "typical" damage result from a single torpedo hit is usually in the 10-20 range, sometimes even most of it being minor damage from counter-flooding. At times, the damage can be just a couple of points of minor damage and no major damage. Given the number of hits and the damage messages shown, my guesstimate on the median outcome here would be that you probably sunk or mission-killed 2 CVs and 1 CVL, with the Saratoga being out for maybe 4-6 months at the outside (potentially as little as 2 if the explosion wasn't that bad). The others that you hit might only be out of action for 6 weeks to patch up low levels of damage. Keep in mind also that CR is not shy about using ships with some level of damage if he needs them, so long as they are operational and he has weighed the risks.
I'm not trying to be overly optimistic here. Notice no "Banzai" or any other exclamation.[;)] These are just weakening blows, not kill shots. I am interested in operational reduction of the Allied forces for the coming months.

So over the past two weeks and two different strikes against the DS, here are the damage records. I'll also include the sub damage info, and for each of those there was also a follow-on explosion message.

Under each one I've estimated wether they're sunk or how long I think they'll be out of the area for repairs, including transit time to WC or PH. I count 13 CVs here, so that might be all available right now, (discounting USN just arrived on WC and RN ships just arrived in the IO). All 8 CVLs are present.

What do you think? Please change my estimates if you disagree.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]
Hit by KB


Strike 1
---------------------------------------

CV Essex, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
Ammo storage explosion on CV Essex
scuttled (340 VPs shown in ships sunk report)

CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
1-2 months (Adak/Dutch)

CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 2, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
2-3 months (WC/PH)

CVL Bataan, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
1-2 months (Adak/Dutch)


Strike 2
---------------------------------------
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
sunk or 10-12 months at WC/PH (12 F4U-2 lost on ground day of strike)

CV Death From Above, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
Ammo storage explosion on CV Death From Above
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Death From Above
4-5 months (WC/PH)

CV John Wick, Torpedo hits 2
4-6 months (WC/PH)

CV Illustrious, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
Ammo storage explosion on CV Illustrious
sunk (14 Avenger I lost on ground day of strike)

CVL Cowpens, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
Massive explosion on CVL Cowpens
sunk (12 F4U-2 lost on ground day of strike)

CVL San Jacinto, Torpedo hits 1
2-3 months (Adak/Dutch)

BC Renown, Bomb hits 1


Hit by subs
---------------------------------------

CV Franklin, Torpedo hit 1
Ammo storage explosion on CV Franklin
4-5 months (WC/PH)

CV Saratoga, Torpedo hit 1
Ammo storage explosion on CV Saratoga
4-5 months (WC/PH)


Undamaged but seen during strikes
---------------------------------------

CV Emperor Norton I.
CV Intrepid
CV Enterprise
CV Hornet
CV Saratoga
CV Bunker Hill

CVL Independence
CVL Princeton
CVL Langley
CVL Monterey[/font]
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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by Lowpe »

The Allies have the option of running the ships damaged, so if a carrier is still flight worthy, it stayed on the front I believe but perhaps in less risky areas.

I amazed the Essex went down with only 2 torp and 2 bomb hits. Kudos.

I go back to what I said before, a very solid couple of days --- probably haven't seen such success late in game since Koniu or your last IJ game versus Jocke.

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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Allies have the option of running the ships damaged, so if a carrier is still flight worthy, it stayed on the front I believe but perhaps in less risky areas.

I amazed the Essex went down with only 2 torp and 2 bomb hits. Kudos.

I go back to what I said before, a very solid couple of days --- probably haven't seen such success late in game since Koniu or your last IJ game versus Jocke.

A lot of D4Y4 Judy involved, so those might both have been 800kg bombs, which can still be dropped using drop tanks at 8 hex range.

I could also be wrong about the significance of the VP total in the reports, but I can't think of any other reason for it being just about exactly 90% of ship value, so scuttling price.
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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by Lecivius »

Just perspective, if he gets those carriers to the WC and puts them on critical, Sara, Franklin and Death are probably a month in the dent & fender shop. 4-5 is probably optimistic. I can fix up the old BB's in @ month or 2 at critical, and those things are repair sponges.
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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: obvert

So over the past two weeks and two different strikes against the DS, here are the damage records. I'll also include the sub damage info, and for each of those there was also a follow-on explosion message.

Under each one I've estimated wether they're sunk or how long I think they'll be out of the area for repairs, including transit time to WC or PH. I count 13 CVs here, so that might be all available right now, (discounting USN just arrived on WC and RN ships just arrived in the IO). All 8 CVLs are present.

What do you think? Please change my estimates if you disagree.

I think, in general, you're overestimating the repair time - particularly for bombs. Unfortunately, I haven't "cracked" the bomb damage code yet. It seems to vary much more than the messages imply. With torpedoes, there's usually a pretty good "feel" for how bad the damage is based on the messages - a high durability ship that just shows "belt armor penetration" for a torpedo hit might not have taken much damage at all, for example, and may not even need to be put in a shipyard.

My estimates in simple bold. I'm including some small amount of travel time here, presumably to Adak (if it's port 7 or 8 now). To Prince Rupert or Seattle if the ship definitely needs a shipyard.
ORIGINAL: obvert

[font="Trebuchet MS"]
Hit by KB


Strike 1
---------------------------------------

CV Essex, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
Ammo storage explosion on CV Essex
scuttled (340 VPs shown in ships sunk report)
Agree

CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
1-2 months (Adak/Dutch)
Just 1 large bomb? 2 months is too much. Maybe 3 weeks, could be as little as 2.

CVL Belleau Wood, Bomb hits 2, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
2-3 months (WC/PH)
No explosions? I'm going with 1 month.

CVL Bataan, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500kg or 800kg bomb)
1-2 months (Adak/Dutch)
As with Yorktown, definitely not 2 months, but it's also a smaller ship so the bomb could have done more damage and it is likewise easier to repair... still, maybe 1 month at most. Maybe 3 weeks.


Strike 2
---------------------------------------
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
Fuel storage explosion on CV Lexington
sunk or 10-12 months at WC/PH (12 F4U-2 lost on ground day of strike)
This one could be down, maybe. Definitely not now, but en route.. or maybe she lives. Extreme levels of damage are harder to guess repair times for. I would guess 8-11 months once in the yards, depending on presence of naval support and/or AR's.

CV Death From Above, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
Ammo storage explosion on CV Death From Above
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Death From Above
4-5 months (WC/PH)
The ammo explosion and fires could result in minor flooding only, depending on the die roll. Given no "heavy fires" I'm going with 3 months, including travel time to a yard.

CV John Wick, Torpedo hits 2
4-6 months (WC/PH)
No explosions and no fires? Were there any "listing, counter flooding" or "Severe damage" or "Critical damage" messages? Without any of these, I'm going with 2 months. With 1 or more, 3-4 months depending on severity.

CV Illustrious, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
Ammo storage explosion on CV Illustrious
sunk (14 Avenger I lost on ground day of strike)
Agree

CVL Cowpens, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
Massive explosion on CVL Cowpens
sunk (12 F4U-2 lost on ground day of strike)
This is why I don't think Lexington is sunk yet. This is where the American fighters "DOG" are coming from.

CVL San Jacinto, Torpedo hits 1
2-3 months (Adak/Dutch)
2 months if she has to travel to Prince Rupert or Seattle. Less if she doesn't (such as presence of an ARD in the Aleutians).

BC Renown, Bomb hits 1
This is probably just system damage.

Hit by subs
---------------------------------------

CV Franklin, Torpedo hit 1
Ammo storage explosion on CV Franklin
4-5 months (WC/PH)
Depends on the other damage messages... if the explosion was the only secondary message, then I'm going with 2 months once she reaches a yard.

CV Saratoga, Torpedo hit 1
Ammo storage explosion on CV Saratoga
4-5 months (WC/PH)
Same as Franklin.


Undamaged but seen during strikes
---------------------------------------

CV Emperor Norton I.
CV Intrepid
CV Enterprise
CV Hornet
CV Saratoga
CV Bunker Hill

CVL Independence
CVL Princeton
CVL Langley
CVL Monterey[/font]

I'm basing my assumption on my experience that a single torpedo hit, whether airborne or sub-launched, is usually only about 10-15 major flooding damage on a USN CV for the average hit. Without additional secondary damage messages, damage could be repairable by a level 7+ port. With additional messages, damage from a single hit could reach the mid-30s in Major damage if it was bad enough. With just the most common message ("Listing, counter-flooding") the damage seems to be right around that average of 10-15 or so. Minor damage could be another 10-15, unless there are also fires that result in more minor damage.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna



I'm just good at reading the combat reports and predicting what went up in smoke and what didn't [;)].

I get it. It's great to sink them, but even 4-6 months without this many CVs can be a big blow to the Allies, assuming that is that he has to be supporting Shikuka with them. Once bombing starts from there it'll hurt me, but it'll also reduce supply for the Allies quickly.

I've got 10 more subs ready to sacrifice themselves over the next few days. I'll be interested to see which way he goes here. Does he move back through the Kuriles, or out to the Aleutians?

I'm not so sure. Torpedo hits on USN CVs, the big ones, can sometimes do extremely minimal damage. The "typical" damage result from a single torpedo hit is usually in the 10-20 range, sometimes even most of it being minor damage from counter-flooding. At times, the damage can be just a couple of points of minor damage and no major damage. Given the number of hits and the damage messages shown, my guesstimate on the median outcome here would be that you probably sunk or mission-killed 2 CVs and 1 CVL, with the Saratoga being out for maybe 4-6 months at the outside (potentially as little as 2 if the explosion wasn't that bad). The others that you hit might only be out of action for 6 weeks to patch up low levels of damage. Keep in mind also that CR is not shy about using ships with some level of damage if he needs them, so long as they are operational and he has weighed the risks.

I'm also not convinced that he doesn't already have everything he needs on the Sakhalins to begin strat bombing on his own terms. If he did need to run more supplies in, LBA coverage from the Sakhalins plus the simply the still-intact CVs and CVEs that he used here would be enough to get through with what he needed.

Make no mistake, I'm not saying that you didn't net some cushion VPs here. Even if those 2 crippled CVs live, you probably traded around a 1:1 for several hundred VPs - which buys you several hundred in terms of the autovictory ratio you are trying to avoid. I'm just saying that I don't think this VP hit delays him at all at this juncture in terms of future landings or a bombing campaign.

Have to agree, the Allies can absorb this kind of loss at this stage if the operation succeeds. Very risky operation for CR. Really a well fought battle for both sides. You came away without any carrier losses. Great job.

I think the biggest reason that the Allies should not attempt an operation such as this is the lack of suitable forward shipyards when things go bad. It is a real time suck to have to send ships back to Pearl and the West Coast. It is why I don't much care for the Northern Axis. The Allies really need a front line shipyard once the approach to Japan starts. This means Manila or Singapore-perhaps Hong Kong but that generally takes too long to take.
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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: obvert

So over the past two weeks and two different strikes against the DS, here are the damage records. I'll also include the sub damage info, and for each of those there was also a follow-on explosion message.

Under each one I've estimated wether they're sunk or how long I think they'll be out of the area for repairs, including transit time to WC or PH. I count 13 CVs here, so that might be all available right now, (discounting USN just arrived on WC and RN ships just arrived in the IO). All 8 CVLs are present.

What do you think? Please change my estimates if you disagree.

I think, in general, you're overestimating the repair time - particularly for bombs. Unfortunately, I haven't "cracked" the bomb damage code yet. It seems to vary much more than the messages imply. With torpedoes, there's usually a pretty good "feel" for how bad the damage is based on the messages - a high durability ship that just shows "belt armor penetration" for a torpedo hit might not have taken much damage at all, for example, and may not even need to be put in a shipyard.

My estimates in simple bold. I'm including some small amount of travel time here, presumably to Adak (if it's port 7 or 8 now). To Prince Rupert or Seattle if the ship definitely needs a shipyard.

I'm basing my assumption on my experience that a single torpedo hit, whether airborne or sub-launched, is usually only about 10-15 major flooding damage on a USN CV for the average hit. Without additional secondary damage messages, damage could be repairable by a level 7+ port. With additional messages, damage from a single hit could reach the mid-30s in Major damage if it was bad enough. With just the most common message ("Listing, counter-flooding") the damage seems to be right around that average of 10-15 or so. Minor damage could be another 10-15, unless there are also fires that result in more minor damage.

Thanks! Good to hear your thoughts. I might be a bit high on some. I also think he'll use them damaged if he needs to, so if he can get say minor damage and system down, then run them with 5-10 float and 5-10 engine damage, he might do it.

Either way I like the odds much better now for about two months. It does seem like most of the multiple hits or hit with extra explosion would need more time due to slow speed of travel to a yard and the need to actually get to one.

Always a bit of a mystery, but it does appear the DS is moving away for now, which may let me take another big risk, probably for not enough gain. [:D]
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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by ny59giants »

He should have at least one of the huge ARDs that can take a CV or BB. Add in ARs and Naval Support to port at Adak or Dutch Harbor should help turn around time.

I hope you have some high endurance subs steaming for or off the mouth to Puget Sound. Brementon repair shipyard should be used for a few of these CV/CVLs.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Have to agree, the Allies can absorb this kind of loss at this stage if the operation succeeds. Very risky operation for CR. Really a well fought battle for both sides. You came away without any carrier losses. Great job.

I think the biggest reason that the Allies should not attempt an operation such as this is the lack of suitable forward shipyards when things go bad. It is a real time suck to have to send ships back to Pearl and the West Coast. It is why I don't much care for the Northern Axis. The Allies really need a front line shipyard once the approach to Japan starts. This means Manila or Singapore-perhaps Hong Kong but that generally takes too long to take.

I do think his op has succeeded. Once I had an idea of what was actually happening I began to plan for that as there was no way to stop the landings. It's the next steps I find interesting, where he has to wonder where I'm going to come from and what will be vulnerable.

It will be hard to repair a lot of major damage quickly with only this Northern foothold on Sakhalin. Bringing the ARDs would not really be possible either. I'm sure they've made it to the Aleutians though, so some can be done there.

The 'Short Hull' Essex also have a 6/44 upgrade which they've obviously not had yet. So I imagine he'll be skipping that one for the active CVs, but if they go to the yards, maybe he'll decide to do it.
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RE: RE:The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

He should have at least one of the huge ARDs that can take a CV or BB. Add in ARs and Naval Support to port at Adak or Dutch Harbor should help turn around time.

I hope you have some high endurance subs steaming for or off the mouth to Puget Sound. Brementon repair shipyard should be used for a few of these CV/CVLs.

I've got about 10 short range trailing to the Aleuts and another 5-6 long range heading to the other side to guard transit to WC and south to PH. [:)]

It looks like either the really damaged CVs were either lost or scuttled or I can't see them with my limited search out here, but the DS moved two hexes the first day after the battle, then jumped ahead about 6 hexes. I'll post some maps tomorrow.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by mind_messing »

I think you can bog the Allies down in a very messy campaign here if you throw in everything the IJN has to offer.

The Allies have only two airbases, which is a pretty tall order in terms of trying to close them down in 1944, but it's possible. You're fighting in your own backyard, while everything American that's not already in position will need to run the gauntlet of the Kuriles.

It's down to the IJN gun-tubes to do serious work here. I forget if you can bombard Toyohara from the western hexside, but check if it's possible. If not, you can base DD's out of Wakkanai and do quick bombardment runs under decent CAP from Hokkaido.

Shikuka is a tougher nut, but still possible if you can get a solid bombardment in with the IJN heavies. You won't close the airbase, or if you do, it won't be for long. The name of this game is trashing air group morale and winning the sweeping war.

The maximum pressure needs to be applied on Allied air assets here, and that means a holistic attack plan.

I'd propose IJN 2E's on night airbase attack at high altitude. I doubt they'll hit much, but it should draw Allied planes on to night CAP and might wear down Allied morale some. The IJN single engine bombers should be sufficient to handle naval strikes on forward targets.

I'd keep the IJA 2E fleet on Honshu, ready to be flown to Hokkaido to mount a low-altitude airbase attack in the event that you start winning the sweep war. At low altitude the planes will die in droves to flak, but if you can gut the Allies air groups sufficiently you can really get the ball rolling.

You're an old enough hand that I doubt you need much tips for the air war, but if you're feeling very nefarious, send a big chunk of low-value shipping up the west coast of Sakhalin, and keep it under a massive LRCAP from Hokkaido. You could conceivably park it two hexes west of Shikuka and draw off Allied airstrikes away from any IJN movements in the region.

That's how I'd do it, given hindsight. Marshal the IJN around Hokkaido, send a big diversionary force up the west coast one day before the IJN sorties, then slam all my capital ships, backed up by the KB into the Shikuka area. Mines, DDs, subs and PT boats will all take a toll, but his B-29's will take a greater one in a few months if you don't win big now.

The Kuriles/Sakhalin is a pretty decent place to turn into a quagmire of attrition, even more so given the Allied decision to neglect the Kurile islands completely.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by Bif1961 »

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by obvert »

[font="Times New Roman"]June 17-18, 1944[/font]
The DS moves off slowly after the strike and small skirmish on the 17th, and it appears to be making better speed than I'd thought. Perhaps his damage is less than I would have thought. Nothing to be done, as the KB was forced to move back, take some replacements, and transfer some LBA in to make up the difference temporarily. One benefit of having lost a few CVs already is that I have some CV groups ready to go on land! [:D]

I feel incredibly fortunate to have been able to wound the Allies at this stage without loss to the KB or critical blows to it's air group pilots.

The KB waited in Etorofu, and although I considered it, to risk a return strike from the DS with the still poor odds agains the KB seems to much of a risk right now. Subs chase, but won't catch before the Aleutians where a lot of air and sea patrols will likely make any attacks difficult. I'll only send a few in.

The main goal now is to take advantage of the absence of the DS. Base forces with CD guns will be brought to the Kutiles outer bases, divisions are now being added to inner bases while some of the brigades that later combine have been flown to Para and Onneketon. The arrival of the second brigades comes within weeks. Supply will also be generously applied, mines added, ACMs and some fuel put in place, and MTBs and midget subs installed. As bases reach level 6 forts I may also start to increase field sizes slightly. It would be nice to be able to put more fighters out here to cover the KB.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I think you can bog the Allies down in a very messy campaign here if you throw in everything the IJN has to offer.

The Allies have only two airbases, which is a pretty tall order in terms of trying to close them down in 1944, but it's possible. You're fighting in your own backyard, while everything American that's not already in position will need to run the gauntlet of the Kuriles.

It's down to the IJN gun-tubes to do serious work here. I forget if you can bombard Toyohara from the western hexside, but check if it's possible. If not, you can base DD's out of Wakkanai and do quick bombardment runs under decent CAP from Hokkaido.

Shikuka is a tougher nut, but still possible if you can get a solid bombardment in with the IJN heavies. You won't close the airbase, or if you do, it won't be for long. The name of this game is trashing air group morale and winning the sweeping war.

I'd love to get in there, but according to my ASW efforts right now there2-3 subs per hex and they're nasty. He's also got several SCTFs sitting and waiting, it seems.

I did have a lot of success with this in the Jocke game after he landed in Korea, but the distance is greater here. I decided to try something else first!
The maximum pressure needs to be applied on Allied air assets here, and that means a holistic attack plan.

I'd propose IJN 2E's on night airbase attack at high altitude. I doubt they'll hit much, but it should draw Allied planes on to night CAP and might wear down Allied morale some. The IJN single engine bombers should be sufficient to handle naval strikes on forward targets.

I'd keep the IJA 2E fleet on Honshu, ready to be flown to Hokkaido to mount a low-altitude airbase attack in the event that you start winning the sweep war. At low altitude the planes will die in droves to flak, but if you can gut the Allies air groups sufficiently you can really get the ball rolling.

You're an old enough hand that I doubt you need much tips for the air war, but if you're feeling very nefarious, send a big chunk of low-value shipping up the west coast of Sakhalin, and keep it under a massive LRCAP from Hokkaido. You could conceivably park it two hexes west of Shikuka and draw off Allied airstrikes away from any IJN movements in the region.

That's how I'd do it, given hindsight. Marshal the IJN around Hokkaido, send a big diversionary force up the west coast one day before the IJN sorties, then slam all my capital ships, backed up by the KB into the Shikuka area. Mines, DDs, subs and PT boats will all take a toll, but his B-29's will take a greater one in a few months if you don't win big now.

The Kuriles/Sakhalin is a pretty decent place to turn into a quagmire of attrition, even more so given the Allied decision to neglect the Kurile islands completely.

I doubt he'll neglect for long, especially after what just happened out there with the CVs. So I've got to get those a tough as possible first thing.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by obvert »

[font="Times New Roman"]June 20, 1944[/font]
Damn. Well, that didn't work.

I had planned a massive KB strike on the ships parked at Shikuka, which look to include a few good cruisers and battleship TFs.

I set a massive LR CAP, set all A6M8 on escort, since there is no risk of attack here yet, and let fly all of the strike groups. So ...

... virtually nothing flew with the fighters, and although I had numerical superiority in the air, the two Judy groups that decided to get up that day got a bit chewed up, and yet did get some through to hit a few worthless transports! [:@]

So, back to the drawing board. I'm heading to Ominato to regroup and see what to do next.

I'm starting to wonder if the strange outcomes from massed sweeps and strikes is breaking the engine here, as the combat was way to short for so many planes, again.
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[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR June 20, 1944
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Shikuka at 126,43

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 18
A6M5 Zero x 30
A6M5c Zero x 63
A6M8 Zero x 431
D4Y3 Judy x 21
J2M3 Jack x 75
N1K1 Rex x 20
N1K2-J George x 101
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 109
Ki-84a Frank x 140
Ki-100-I Tony x 38

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 57
P-39D Airacobra x 24
P-39N1 Airacobra x 25
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 113
P-51B Mustang x 16
F4U-1 Corsair x 17
F4U-1A Corsair x 159
F6F-3 Hellcat x 114

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
D4Y3 Judy: 12 destroyed
D4Y3 Judy: 2 destroyed by flak


Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
DD Brown

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
2 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Shikuka at 126,43

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 151 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 50 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 28
A6M5b Zero x 30
D4Y3 Judy x 36
J2M3 Jack x 67
N1K2-J George x 28
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 100
Ki-84a Frank x 96
Ki-100-I Tony x 50

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 57
P-39D Airacobra x 24
P-39N1 Airacobra x 25
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 112
P-51B Mustang x 16
F4U-1 Corsair x 17
F4U-1A Corsair x 159
F6F-3 Hellcat x 110

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y3 Judy: 18 destroyed
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed


Allied aircraft losses
P-38J Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-39N1 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed


Allied Ships
xAK James D. Phelan
xAK Richard B. Moore, Bomb hits 1
xAK Phoebe A. Hearst, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAK Michael Casey, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage


Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
8 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by crsutton »

There is a lot of discussion about that on Dan's board. You should mention it to him. There were some big issues with massive air battles way back when Radar and Greyjoy were going at it around the home islands. It is so rare for games to reach this point that it could be that it is just resurfacing.
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RE: The Elephant Vanishes :: obvert (J) vs SqzMyLemon (A)

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: crsutton

There is a lot of discussion about that on Dan's board. You should mention it to him. There were some big issues with massive air battles way back when Radar and Greyjoy were going at it around the home islands. It is so rare for games to reach this point that it could be that it is just resurfacing.

Interesting. Not sure what we'll be able to do about it if it is too much action in one spot. The engine is the engine. I' guessing it's me who'll have to figure it out, as for him it's pretty simple. Load up, sweep, sweep sweep, and bombs away! [;)]
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