TOP SECRET ORM + WARSPITE ONLY (Reverse AAR)

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Given the presence of AT _and_ ARM in the hex, you might wish to call Assault in the hex anyway, to try for a two casualty result to send at least one back to the Force Pools. They are the best French units to have in open terrain. It would take 2.5 ARM to do it as noted - unless the French call it for you.

They have the MECH as well and a 3-2 AT and those two are rather good in open terrain as well. But once bad weather arrives it doesn't matter as much. And I suspect we will get bad weather after this impulse. So I rather be prepared if we get one more impulse than risk disorganizing the attack force.

[Orm]

The situation in Northern China opens up. I am a bit surprised of the development here. Now it looks fairly interesting for Japan. Although I have rolled low on the attacks every time I thought it looked interesting. [:D]


Picture from Sep/Oct '40 Impulse #7 (Axis) - DOW

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Cool. [8D] The effort on the Italian front has some impact on the general campaign. French units from the main front has been withdrawn to defend the Pyrenees.

And it might have been the reason that they abandoned the defence of Lyons. Getting Lyons without a fight is nice. [:)]


Picture from Sep/Oct '40 Impulse #7 (Axis) - DOW

warspite1

Yes, in my plans I have taken Lyons - I can also get choice on the armour hex.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I can also get choice on the armour hex.

[:)]

What did I miss?

[Orm]

Now I see. They just left a division, without ZOC, in the forest hex. [:D]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I can also get choice on the armour hex.

[:)]

What did I miss?

warspite1

The division left in the forest does not exert ZOC so my armour in the south was able to move north.

[Orm]

Have you considered attacking the French MECH instead? I wonder what odds you get on it.

[Orm]

A fast, and dirty, calculation gives 3:1+3 against the MECH without any air added. And then there is the possibility of a blitz move.

[Orm]

Suddenly the possibility to go for conquest of France has opened up. At least if our attacks this impulse are fairly successful.

With so many French moved to their rear I am considering attacking Marseilles with Italy.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Have you considered attacking the French MECH instead? I wonder what odds you get on it.

warspite1

Just watched Frozen - a brilliant film [:)], I'm back now until the footie.

My thinking is currently:

Armour hex - 3:1 +2 and +4 if we get lucky with the ground strikes.
Vichy - 4:1 +1 (and a good chance for 5:1)
Division - Automatic.

I will look now at the Mech as a possible alternative and let you know.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

With so many French moved to their rear I am considering attacking Marseilles with Italy.

warspite1

Marseilles is tempting - as is trying to move across France to cut off the north from the south. However the latter can only achieve limited success, whereas the possibility of taking Marseilles is tres tempting. Its a shame the Stuka is one hex short of reach against the garrison in the mountain.

[warspite1]

The breakthrough makes the Mech attack interesting - although is not without difficulty - especially if the dice are unkind. I suspect I will go with my original thought - however I don't need to make my mind up until after the ground strikes. So the HS123 and JU-87D (6 strength) will continue to try and ground strike the French armour stack and, on reflection, they will be joined by the remaining Ju-88 too. I really need both remaining units ground struck and I am concerned about his fighter. HS 123 in the front please and, if they survive, the Henschel and the Stuka return to Metz and the Ju-88 to Strasbourg.

[Orm]

Those three bombers is one entire odds shift against the MECH stack.

How about just sending the 5 strength Stuka against the ARM stack and see how it goes? France only has one fighter so either the Stuka is unintercepted or the air support will be guaranteed. That way the risk with a air fight is reduced. If the Stuka succeeds then the option for ground support remains or even to save some air against desperate counter adds or for support if the turn continues. Or if it fails then the odds for an attack against the MECH has increased.

If air support is used against the MECH and all gets though then the odds is 51:12 or 4.25:1 +3 with at least 80% chance of a breakthrough.

[warspite1]

As before, I would prefer the modifiers. I know that three bombers is wasteful, but he has a fighter and I haven't won an air battle since forever (despite always having better odds) and my land throws remain sub 6.

I am therefore playing the % and doing what I can. If the dice are crap then the dice are crap - but if I have the modifiers I can make them less crapier [:)]. I just need you to ground strike those mothers. No pressure [:D]

[Orm]

I will do as you command.

And die roll bonuses are indeed nice. Although I do not agree with you that ground strikes are safer than ground support. You need luck with ground strikes and since I usually have bad luck I am not all that fond of them. Ground support doesn't make much difference against strong stacks but when they can guarantee an entire odds shift then they are awesome. Like money in the bank. If one could just guarantee that they remain unintercepted then no luck at all are involved.

I'll begin with our impulse in an hour or so.

[warspite1]

Very good no.1. I am here until about 9:30 but will be back by 11am latest I would have thought, and then around for the rest of the day.

[Orm]

May I suggest that the Bremen MIL move into Netherlands and ZOC the resource to guard against partisans appearing and block it? Maybe the GARR in Kiel should be sent eastwards to increase the garrison rating that will change coming the new year? Or maybe to France to beef up the garrison there eventually?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

May I suggest that the Bremen MIL move into Netherlands and ZOC the resource to guard against partisans appearing and block it? Maybe the GARR in Kiel should be sent eastwards to increase the garrison rating that will change coming the new year? Or maybe to France to beef up the garrison there eventually?

warspite1

The Bremen MIL is signposted to make that move already. I am happy for the Garrison in Kiel to make the move east. Perhaps my Chief of Staff could attend to the necessary rail arrangements?

[warspite1]

I am going out now for an hour or so so if the action starts, and Mayhemizer defends with his fighter, please bring the German 6-quality in as support. Thank-you.

[warspite1]

I thought the Germans were going to take Lyons. Not sure to what extent this matters at this stage though.