US Entry pool question

[Majorball68]

Vichy has just been installed and this is the US entry pool after that July/August 1940. The Axis have aligned no minors and only DOW C/France Poland, Denmark, Belgium and Netherlands and drawn chits every time. The Allied player has made no DOW nor claimed the Baltic states. Allies have not lost chits for reopening the Burma road the first turn it was closed in JA40 or entering East Poland. The Allies are able to select options which would not be available for 12 to 18 months normally. There is every chance the CW and USA could occupy the Philippines and NEI before the start of 1940 not to mention a 1940 oil embargo. Because I have never seen anything like this before just wondering who has the advantage here? The 2nd post will have the US options selected.

[Majorball68]

US Entry options chosen

[paulderynck]

Your tension levels are too low. You need to take entry options every turn so you can Gear Up and then get War Appropriations. Other than the Oil Embargo there's not a lot you can do that would force the Axis to DoW, and the Axis should be able to estimate that your tension is too low and just wait it out. If Japan has her Synths built and has been careful with oil management, it's possible even the Oil Embargo would not push her to DoW.

[Dabrion]

Only two tensions chits by mid40 is tough luck! Did you miss all the rolls or did you not take options?

[Majorball68]

I'm the Axis player!

[Dabrion]

Then you should rejoice! Looks like they need at least 2-3 more turns to get first gear up done. Means there will be no US phibs before '43/'44 campaign seasons in the Pacific. That should give Japan enough time to just hunker down in the perimeter and set sights for CBI or Australia.

Another thing worth considering is to swamp the US in entry in the hope to push him over the good entry regime on the IT'S WAR chart. That would be done by taking lots of entry actions. It is somewhat risky though.. as they will get lots of chits and the chance to get a high value chit into tension increases too. But it can work.

Allies have can be quite aggressive with those deep pools too..

[Centuur]

With 11 entry options taken, the US simply had back luck with the die rolls. It looks like the Isolationists have the upper hand in Congress...

But with the fleet in Pearl Harbor, the US can start manipulating part of the die rolls for options chosen, so that more tension chits will go into the tension pools.

It's not unusual to see this happening, I'm afraid. Two or three turns from now, the politicians in the US might become more interested in things happening overseas.

Also, it looks like the US player is avoiding high tension rolls options. Why not take Greenland and Iceland or send resources to the USSR? That's a little strange to me.

[Dabrion]

Coming back to Major's initial question: who has the advantage here. I would say this Allies are in an advantageous position considering USE, mostly because the chit draws are average leaning towards solid.

Lets project the US entry/tension for a bit: assuming the median chit moves to tension per pool per turn, 1st GU is likely for ND40~JA41, with levels around e|p 27|29 entry and 13/14 tension. Median chit draws from the general pool is a [2] chit in '40 and '41.

Given the levels after 1st GU from the above, to reach 2nd GU they are 1|2 median chits away in tension levels and 2|1 median chits in entry levels. That amounts to another 4 turns (+/- a turn). Since you will want to move into Kwajalein and maybe start to attack RU, you should assume the US to be in a position to DoW JP with a ~50% chance by SO41.


That in my book is an advantage for the Allied side. Take close notice of the tension rolls/chit moves, they are a nice count down clock in this position.
Events along the way may exacerbate the process, we are talking about Barb, Spain, taking Suez/the Rock, moving into Kwajalein etc..

p.s.: If US indeed follows up with oil embargo, the middle east oil is an option too. Early NEI should be avoided imoh, esp. when you go into the Souther Monsun cycle soonish.

[brian brian]

Allies drawing chits about 0.4 / chit higher than ‘average’. But rolling poorly on tension.

[Jagdtiger14]

Speaking to what Centuur wrote above, I think the US player has a strategy going on here, so not all is as it might seem. Getting US fleet to Pearl this early might be the indicator.

[Grotius]

Allies drawing chits about 0.4 / chit higher than ‘average’. But rolling poorly on tension.

Hmm, so what is the average value per chit? 1.5 or so?

[brian brian]

It changes every year. High in 1939, low point in 1940, starts climbing again in 1941. I looked up the #s when I read this thread but am on phone right now.

[Grotius]

It's okay, I found at least one thread here explaining how MWIF does it -- with an infinite pool of chits, varying in the way you describe. 1939: avg 2.3, 1940: avg 1.8, 1941: over 2.5, etc. Great reading, actually:

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