The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[witpqs]

I saw John's post and luckily I was between sips of coffee. I decided to let you and he post your viewpoints and discuss it and decided not to comment. Even though I've read your AAR for a while I'm not nearly so close to your game and might unintentionally get his defenses up and impede such a discussion.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I saw John's post and luckily I was between sips of coffee. I decided to let you and he post your viewpoints and discuss it and decided not to comment. Even though I've read your AAR for a while I'm not nearly so close to your game and might unintentionally get his defenses up and impede such a discussion.

I saw John's post and luckily I was between sips of coffee. I decided to let you and he post your viewpoints and discuss it and decided not to comment. Even though I've read your AAR for a while I'm not nearly so close to your game and might unintentionally get his defenses up and impede such a discussion.

Just going to keep my powder dry until the game ends. John lost (yes, lost...by any measure)because his interior defenses were soft and he did not use his carriers to oppose any of 5 major invasion (Banda Sea, Luzon, Formosa, China, Korea). Maybe he loses any or all of those battles but he never even tried. Weird but he just didn't seem to want to get the paint scratched on his CV's

[Capt. Harlock]

That's in character. Can't you see the Japanese naval commander telling the Emperor, "Hey, we still have our carriers!" The Emperor's most likely reply: "Those Allied dogs are in Korea and all over China and Formosa, you imbecile. You sat there and played with your hands and let them come. Now you want to claim some kind of victory?"

The German Navy in WWI could say that they never lost a modern battelship in action with the British. But ultimately, they failed to break the blockade that lost the war for Germany more than any other single thing. John preserved a fleet-in-being at the expense of the Phillipines, China, and probably Korea. You made your omelet; John wasn't willing to break the eggs.

[crsutton]

Yep, this game is not a good one to pose as an example of fine balance. I do believe that a solid Allied player has an advantage over a solid Japanese-if you are counting points. But this was not John's best game. I think he could have played a lot better. And you read him too well. You have really done a good job of fine tuning your Allied strategy and tactics. There are counters but your deep invasions are tough to match and generally work well. Frankly, you are getting too good as the Allies. I think you need to play one as Japan next time. [;)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yep, this game is not a good one to pose as an example of fine balance. I do believe that a solid Allied player has an advantage over a solid Japanese-if you are counting points. But this was not John's best game. I think he could have played a lot better. And you read him too well. You have really done a good job of fine tuning your Allied strategy and tactics. There are counters but your deep invasions are tough to match and generally work well. Frankly, you are getting too good as the Allies. I think you need to play one as Japan next time. [;)]

I volunteer. We can even play Scen 2 with realistic R&D off.

[palioboy2]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

That's in character. Can't you see the Japanese naval commander telling the Emperor, "Hey, we still have our carriers!" The Emperor's most likely reply: "Those Allied dogs are in Korea and all over China and Formosa, you imbecile. You sat there and played with your hands and let them come. Now you want to claim some kind of victory?"

The German Navy in WWI could say that they never lost a modern battelship in action with the British. But ultimately, they failed to break the blockade that lost the war for Germany more than any other single thing. John preserved a fleet-in-being at the expense of the Phillipines, China, and probably Korea. You made your omelet; John wasn't willing to break the eggs.

I agree with your overall statement but the bolded isn't very true. John rarely had a fleet in being as CR almost always knew where it was and the limit of its capabilities. It would have been more troublesome hiding in some port then steaming around under CRs nav search.

[Canoerebel]

3/18/45

Korea: There is no longer an imminent threat to Gunzan. John has a major army in Korea and alot of air power, but his forces are too far away from Gunzan to arrive before the Herd does, and once the Herd arrives he has no chance anyway. This is key because I thought Gunzan was his last best chance to slow down the Allies significantly. Take Gunzan and I wouldn't have the massive airfield to engage in strategic bombing. It would take me weeks or possibly months to address this. Instead, in about six days, Gunzan will be a level 9 airfield with 2,000 aircraft and more than 1 million supply. Meanwhile, John continues to lose fighters in big numbers, which may have a positive effect on the strategic bombing campaing.

If Gunzan is indeed safe, I foresee only two ways John can materially extend the war now: the first would be to destroy the Herd before it reaches Gunzan (that's unlikely given the strenght of the escorts; and I'm moving my carriers to support the Herd now that the ground situation in Korea seems stable.) The second is if he wins a big sea battle that has a materially positive effect for him in points, thus delaying auto victory. I think this is highly unlikely.

I guess there's a third way - if the Strategic Bombing campaign again is much less effective than I expect. We'll see soon.

But the Allies now have a lead of 56k and need 18k to win. Points are coming in larger numbers now as enemy armies get destroyed and as John feeds his airforce into the grinder at Gunzan. I think Strat Bombing will enhance these and lead to victory within the estimated window of late April to early May.

[Canoerebel]

Allied victory level now "Major," for what that's worth (not much).

Allied lead is 56,000 on the nose.

[mind_messing]

Looking at the map, I'm convinced that the correct decision for Japan is to completely withdraw from China once the Allies have the ability to supply the Chinese and concentrate their defense on Manchuria and especially Korea.

Granted, the loss of the major Chinese coastal cities is a serious blow to Japan, but now that you're south of Keijo everything in north is absolutely irrelevant to the fight and is going to wither on the vine for a few months before the Soviets sweep it away (if the garrison requirement doesn't drop before that).

[Canoerebel]

I'm a little bit in the dark rearding John's capabilities in CHina and Korea. I think he's staggering in China and about to stagger in Korea. But for all I know there are vast resources for him to call forward. I don't think so, but I don't know (one of the Fog of War things I get to enjoy due to the fact that I haven't played as Japan).

I'm about to shift most of the Western Allied army units in northern China to Korea. I'll let the Chinese handle China with an assist from Allied bombers.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm a little bit in the dark rearding John's capabilities in CHina and Korea. I think he's staggering in China and about to stagger in Korea. But for all I know there are vast resources for him to call forward. I don't think so, but I don't know (one of the Fog of War things I get to enjoy due to the fact that I haven't played as Japan).

I'm about to shift most of the Western Allied army units in northern China to Korea. I'll let the Chinese handle China with an assist from Allied bombers.

I don't know but he can't have much. If he did, you would have seen it. Even if he did what is he supplying it with? The world has moved on

[paullus99]

I'm shocked that John might have any supply left in China.......

He, at least for the moment, has easy access to Fusan / Pusan to bring supply over to support his troops in Korea, but even that shouldn't last too much longer.

[jwolf]

Since your already existing ground troops in Korea seem to be holding OK, I am assuming the massive ground reinforcements you're bringing to Gunzan are intended for a major land offensive there. It would certainly be nice to take Fusan and block any more supply or reinforcements from the home islands.

[Canoerebel]

He might have a little. Recall that about ten days ago I let a convoy (probably a supply convoy) transit the Yellow Sea northbound. I didn't want to reveal that CVE Death Star was posted right there, for reasons I deemed far more important than supply to Korea. So he has some supply, but probably not enough and diminishing quickly. I'll contest any further effort on his part to bring in supply via ship.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Since your already existing ground troops in Korea seem to be holding OK, I am assuming the massive ground reinforcements you're bringing to Gunzan are intended for a major land offensive there. It would certainly be nice to take Fusan and block any more supply or reinforcements from the home islands.

Yes, I'll have offensive plans in Korea. Enemy divisions will be a top priority, as will Moppo and Keijo. Next would be Fusan.

I'll try not to let ground activity draw down supply enough to affect Strategic Bombing needs, so if that becomes an issue I'll defer to the latter. But I think there's enough to sustain both until auto victory is achieved.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I'm shocked that John might have any supply left in China.......

He, at least for the moment, has easy access to Fusan / Pusan to bring supply over to support his troops in Korea, but even that shouldn't last too much longer.

It appeared to me that a big tidal surge of supply pulsed through China the turn right after the rail was opened in Korea. I suspect a couple of convoys brought enough to meet needs. However, the IJ conducted offensive maneuvers that had to consume a lot of supply. So the IJ are likely vulnerable for isolation. We will see once the Allies commence operations if a (-) supply shows up in combat reports.

[Canoerebel]

3/19/45

Asia: John is regrouping in Korea. I think the threat to Gunzan is basically nil now. In China, the Japanese may be retiring from Tsinan, and the Allies are making major progress in eliminating the once-stout Kukong Pocket (and picking up lots of points for enemy army losses).

But the most important thing by far: The Herd is only 15 hexes from Gunzan. In three or four days, the air war (Operation Unicycle) commences against the Home Islands from close by.

[GetAssista]

Why would you want Strat mode for units sailing to Korea from Tsingtao and not use amphib TF transport instead? Strat mode wastes time changing out/into combat mode and restricts loading/unloading to port facilities (how large is Gunzan port? how much nav support in both it and Tsingtao?). The only benefit of Transport TF is 20% less cargo/troop space, but you have enough ships on hand I believe. I assume you do not plan to use RR strat mode immediately for units when landed in Korea with that situation on hand.

[Hortlund]

I really must say you have defeated him in detail with good and sound strategic desicions. Really a textbook example on how to win the war by focusing on whats important and crucial, while ignoring what is secondary and irrelevant.

You have used your forces where they were needed and in accordance with a sound strategic direction, while he has had difficulty, it seems, to decide when and where to fight. The impression I have gotten is that he really did not know what to do with his forces after defeating you in Sumatra. Overconfident, it seems, he wasted many carriers in the CV battle around Kawajelein. And then again, he wasted the remaining ones by not committing them to battle.

He should have drawn a red line somewhere. Decided to make a stand. Instead it appears as if he suffered from the ”put a frog in boiling water”-syndrom. I dont know how he reasoned deciding not to fight for the Philippines, or Formosa. But clearly that is when he lost the war. If he tries to blame this defeat on ”the invincibility of the allies” that is disrespectful to you and a white washing of his own misstakes.

Sun Tzu-level victory Canoe. I lift my hat.

[Canoerebel]

I'm interested in reading John's AAR to see if his Peanut Gallery urged him to implement an extreme points-saving strategy to postpone defeat as long as possible. Perhaps it was just his strong disinclination to take on Death Star. I think he should have combined his carriers and struck when Death Star was proximate to a nest of his airfields instead of suffering a long, lingering defeat.

A few months ago, John Dillworth said it seemed like both of us were happy to ignore the other while carrying on about our own business. He was right! At that time, John brought KB up to the Aleutians on an evacuation mission. I ignored him to concentrate on the things I wanted to do. That kind of thing has happened a lot. I felt strongly that this made sense - that the Allies should focus on achieving the position from which to achieve final victory and that I wouldn't go off chasing every opportunity that might detract from the main mission. Sometimes my failures to strike probably drove readers crazy. And there are plenty of readers who are convinced I could have and should have won the game much earlier. But I stuck to what I could envision - avoiding the trap I fell into when I accepted Nemo's advice to detach units from Sumatra to invade Malaya.