NORDIC CHANNEL: Orm and Mayhemizer

[Mayhemizer_slith]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Game 3:

Anyway. You are in charge of the Chinese front so we will proceed as you decide. It surely isn't bad to try and save units. [:)]

Do you want to do the entire impulse? Not much for France and USSR to do so I can post instructions.

I play this impulse with instructions.

How about moving INF from pocket to west and keeping INF + AT gun where they are covering Sian?

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

ORIGINAL: Orm

Game 3:

Anyway. You are in charge of the Chinese front so we will proceed as you decide. It surely isn't bad to try and save units. [:)]

Do you want to do the entire impulse? Not much for France and USSR to do so I can post instructions.

I play this impulse with instructions.

How about moving INF from pocket to west and keeping INF + AT gun where they are covering Sian?

That works as well. [:)]

My reasoning for not suggesting this was that the INF + AT will be OOS then and I fear Japan might attempt to disorganize them with ground strikes. Or rather that Japan succeeds with the ground strike. Hence my 'bait' plan. Maybe the 'bait' would draw the ground strikes instead. It is the more obvious target. The danger is, I think, that it can be ignored.

Anyway. There is huge danger whatever we do. [:)]

[Orm]

I am going to watch the GW 'crime show' where they comment on crimes and the police. After that I am going to retire for the evening. I've been going up to early for comfort for a while now. I'll post my instructions for game 3 tomorrow.

Have a good evening and a good night. [:)]

[Orm]

Game 3: Instructions for France and USSR. The Nationalist Chinese can move the Communist Chinese as needed.

No declarations of war.

Combined: France, USSR

No Port Strikes. No naval air.

The Oran fleet sail to Cape St. Vincent 2-box (or whatever box that CW prefers).

No strategic bombing. No Ground Strikes.

Rail Movement:

France:
13th Army Corps in Marseilles rail to Georges in hex 54, 30.

USSR:
2nd MECH in Kiev rail to Karelia hex 32, 56.

Land Movement:

France:
1) 5th Army Corps moves one hex to the SE (54, 31).
2) 7th Army Corps moves one hex to the SE (54, 30).
3) AA in Metz move to hex 54, 31.

CW forces may advance into Lille if they so desire.

USSR + COM China:
1) Lanchow Warlord move to hex 76, 136 west of Sian.
2) Other Communist Chinese land moves as the Nationalists directs. Remove land moves from the bottom of this list as needed.
3) AA in Ukraine move to Odessa.
4) ART in Leningrad moves one hex West (37, 51).
5) HQI Timoshenko moves one hex to the NE (31, 56).
6) HQA Zhukov moves two hexes west to hex 43, 64.

Air Rebase:

MS 406 rebase to hex 56, 31.

No reorganization.

[Grotius]

Hey guys, I'm really enjoying both the "Nordic" AARs. I've looked at both "secret" threads, but I hope it's okay to ask a couple newbie questions here. (I haven't posted in your opponents' thread at all.) If it's not appropriate, no worries -- I'll just ask my questions later in the "WIF School" forum.

1. First, why is it undesirable to put ships in high sea boxes when you suspect Italy may declare war (and thereby have a surprise impulse)? You guys say you prefer the 1-box or even the 0-box. I think it has something to do with an Italian search result that finds only your CPs and not your warships? Or is it that you'd rather be able to abort to a more distant port? (Being in a lower sea box means you can abort to farther away, yes?)

2. Second, why is it desirable to have Wavell and other Brits in Brest or even Bayonne? Why not fighting to delay the fall of Paris? I've seen in other AARs that the CW sometimes wants to make a redoubt in Bayonne. What does this achieve?

Many thanks for a great game!

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Hello

Nice to hear you like our AARs.

1) when Italy declares war, we are surpriced. We don’t want to find Italians in case Italy don’t find us. So we try to minize the change of naval combat. During surprice impulse only attacking side can use surprice points. Let’s say both sides have ships in box 4, Italy rolls 10, Allies roll 4. There is a naval combat and Italy is the one who uses surprice points. If Allied ships would have been in lower box, there would have not been naval combat. Having ships in box 0 forces Italy to use points to save their subs, so they can’t just increase damage on CPs.

2) CW try to delay Paris falling but not with all cost. They stay on coast where they are easier to keep in supply. If they are inland (adjacent to Paris) they easily get OOS and are destroyed (total of 20+ BPs). Just before Paris fall they go to Bayonne, because they are easily in supply, that hex is hard to attack, it annoys Germany. it makes attacking Spain harder and units are easy to evacuate if needed.

[Orm]

Basically what Mayhemizer just said. I was writing this response as he posted so I'll post it anyway.

Hello Grotius. Please ask away. And we do not mind you visiting the opponents thread as well. We just ask that you do not reveal their secrets to us or vice versa.

And, as with most things in MWIF, there are multiple ways to do things and our way might not be the best way but I will try to answer our way, or perhaps my way, of thinking.

1) During the surprise impulse we get no surprise points at all. Regardless on what we roll. So we will get pounded if there is a combat. Therefore we prefer if there is no combat at all during the surprise. But our convoy lines are vital and must be at sea. Other missions might be important as well so there will be ships at sea. If we are in a high box there are, say 40% chance of us finding, and 40 % chance of Italy finding so then it is a big chance of combat. And if there is a combat with only high boxes then Italy can often use the surprise points to reduce their damage and Allies then has the option to remain and risk further damage or abort the sea area. If Allies only has the 0-box then they can not find and the chance of combat is halved. And while the escorts damage can be eliminated that uses up surprise points and thus reduces damage suffered by the convoy or escorts. The reason for the 1-box is that the ships in that box will be in the 0-box for next turn.

2) And putting the HQA in France increase the number of CW units allowed to enter France with two. It can be nice to have that option but at the same time have the HQA in a safer location.

[Grotius]

Thanks for the replies, guys. Don't worry, I won't share info I learn in your thread or in your opponents' thread.

Thanks especially for the replies to my questions. I think I get it now. Being in a higher sea box increases the chance of unwanted combat, and it doesn't give you the usual benefit of a higher box -- more surprise points.

It hadn't occurred to me that putting one or more units in Bayonne might deter an invasion of Spain. I had thought about the foreign troop commitment issue, but when I play, I'd always put Gort right behind a stack of CW units. I guess there's no reason he has to be near the front line for FTC purposes, and it's safer to have him elsewhere.

Incidentally, I've seen Germany make amphibious assaults in the Low Countries in the early game. Could Germany do so even in France? Or do the rules on naval movement through the English Channel preclude that?

Thanks again for a great AAR. I've read every post! I'm learning a lot.

[brian brian]

So over the holidays my sister asked me if I wanted a t-shirt from my great-grandfather's original home town in west-central coastal Finland - Lehmajoki. She showed me a picture of it, which mostly featured the face of a cow. I asked why that was and she explained the town is named after the adjacent river, and is translated as "Cow River."

It sure is exciting learning about your ancestry sometimes.



re: the BEF in France - the Germans don't always capture Paris and take the Vichy option. If they choose to conquer metropolitan France the most likely reason is they are going to continue south to attack Spain. In that situation, the new focus of the French campaign will quickly gravitate to the line of the Gironde River and a desperate race ensues between Allied rear area / reserve units / new reinforcements and the lead elements of the German advance. The Wavell HQ-A is an excellent choice to hold the clear hex behind the river, which it can do fairly effectively all by itself against just those lead German elements (not so well against multiple ARM and Stukas).

The Gironde position can become fairly strong for the Allies if they prepare for it; CW anti-tank assets are a big help there. Good Allied play is to rail two French factories to Bordeaux as soon as the Germans capture their first hex in northern France, and the Allies can also consider CW "loans" of Build Points to France in the first few turns of 1940. Those BPs might end up just being part of the Vichy forces - or they might end up being a key unit that halts the powerful 1940 Wehrmacht dead in it's tracks at the gates of Toulouse - one of the most difficult hexes to capture in the game. It doesn't hurt to scrap some low factor French Infantry class units either.


Germany can invade along the English Channel. The naval movement rules only prevent moving from the North Sea to the Bay of Biscay, unless you control London. Landing in a hex of Belgium or Netherlands is different - during the surprise impulse, a non-city hex there would have a 0 notional strength. In a French hex a non-city, non-ZoC notional is worth 2 defense factors, and could possibly summon air Ground Support as well. Action limits and several other concerns just generally make the idea not all that practical.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Nordic 2

Germany combined.

Naval move
3 CPs from Königsberg to Baltic Sea.

Rail move
Königsberg MIL from Danzig to Saarbrucken.


I do land moves and take Brussels.

Germany gets 2,7:1 Blitz against 2x INF in hex 52,31. Both sides can send planes for ground support and fighters to shoot down enemy planes.

There is a risk losing unit, but Germany can send INF div to that attack for loss taker.

Taking that hex would be great. And Germany has 27% chance to get breakthrough (if planes are not counted) and take Lille.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

Nordic 2

Germany gets 2,7:1 Blitz against 2x INF in hex 52,31. Both sides can send planes for ground support and fighters to shoot down enemy planes.

There is a risk losing unit, but Germany can send INF div to that attack for loss taker.

Taking that hex would be great. And Germany has 27% chance to get breakthrough (if planes are not counted) and take Lille.

There is a risk of losing two units. And advancing into Lille increase the French production. And increase the risk of successful counterattacks. I would delay this attack until Luftwaffe is back to strength.

[Orm]

Nordic 1:

Suggested end of turn orders for France and USSR. Comments and suggested changes are both welcome and appreciated.


Prod Plan Prelim

France:
Save oil from Iraq in Damascus.
clear the idle on the CW oil in Port of Spain.
Suggest that CW change their convoy lines so that the Senegal oil can be transported to France.
The oil lent from CW go to production.
These changes expect to give France 10 BPs and 1 additional oil saved.

USSR:
USSR changes their oil resource from saved to production.
16 BPs expected.

Stay At Sea:

France:
All available ships stay at sea.(Including the BBs in the North Sea)

Return To Base:

France:
The 3 cruisers in CSV return to Mogador in Morocco

Use Oil:

USSR:
Reorganize the two LND3 in Persia for 0.4 oil. (Rounded to no oil at all)

France:
Reorganize the three cruisers and the TRS for no oil. Unless USA plans to not intern the French CV (Getting worried here). Then the CV is reorganized instead of the TRS.

Break Down:
USSR breaks down the 11th INF in Leningrad to two divisions.

Production:

France (10):
INF
GARR
AT
FTR2

USSR (16):
2 x INF
CAV
ARM
Pilot

Reinforcements:

France:
CP -> Libreville, Gabon
ARM -> Paris
MECH -> Paris

USSR:
FTR2 (I-153) -> Leningrad
INF -> Murmansk

Resource Lending:
France trade the Hanoi resource to China

France suggest that the trade to France is somewhat reduced.

Initiative:
Suggest that we do not demand re-roll. Weather is likely to be fine so I suspect that Italy will enter the war. And Belgium. If we win the initiative should we let Axis go first anyway or should we go first?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

Nordic 2

Germany gets 2,7:1 Blitz against 2x INF in hex 52,31. Both sides can send planes for ground support and fighters to shoot down enemy planes.

There is a risk losing unit, but Germany can send INF div to that attack for loss taker.

Taking that hex would be great. And Germany has 27% chance to get breakthrough (if planes are not counted) and take Lille.

There is a risk of losing two units. And advancing into Lille increase the French production. And increase the risk of successful counterattacks. I would delay this attack until Luftwaffe is back to strength.

Losing 2 unit need two things: Failing fractional odds and rolling one for land combat. I take that risk.

Even if Germany only takes hex and gets disorganized, that is good. Much easier to attack next time.

And if Germany rolls well, situation would look like this (railing HQ to Belgium instead of MIL). MECH would be organized in Lille. We don't have to take Lille, or advance to France if we don't want to. Advancing to this resource is hex too risky. Going to Lille keeps MECH organized, with a help ART and planes it would be quite safe in Lille even if they manage to disorganize it.

I would like to keep advancing, even if it costs a unit. If we take France early, we are more prepared to attack USSR. And faster we take Paris, less they can build units to cause us problems. Right now France can't even set up a decent defense line. I would like to keep it that way.

[Orm]

Wouldn't the MECH be OOS in Lille? Then if it is and it suffers a successful ground strike it would be in dire straits, right?

And, to me, the likely outcome feel like one unit lost for Germany and a retreated French. The odds for France to suffer a loss is almost the same as Germany suffers a loss. I do not like those odds. And I am not all that fond of medium odds attacks without any positive die modifiers.

My point is just that we have a good situation and do not need to rush it. It sure pays nice if it the attack is a success but it can cost if it fails. And since the French air is uncommitted there is always the possibility that the French defensive support gets through and worsen the odds.

However, if you feel lucky then give it a go.

How about a ground strike first and see if that can gain a positive die modifier?

And regardless of the result I think advancing into France seems risky. Might be better to wait with that for a fresh impulse. But you are the boss. [:)]

[Mayhemizer_slith]

In rain German remaining air units can't provide much (2x 3 factor, halved in rain) and there is AA adjacent to attacked hex.

MECH is OOS in Lille, but it's not very likely to hit it with bombers in rain, when it's protected by fighters.

I rather take minor risk if it can save O-chits later. Turn may end now (20%) or after Allied next impulse (40%).

Germany ground strikes with both bombers, let's see how it goes. But you know, no one can stop German war machine in 1939 [;)]

[Orm]

I agree with you to try to save the offensive chits.

The reason that I am wary might be because I've done what you propose and I got mauled. I advanced two armoured units into such a breach. Then CW ground struck it and cleared a bomber that succeed. And then the French completed the disaster by rolling high on the attack and it cost me dearly. Half the German panzers lost early in the campaign... And then the winter struck as well...

But I like your attitude. [:)]

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Any plans for Italy/Japan for game 4?

[Orm]

Not yet. I haven't had time, or energy, to look at it yet. I hope to do so after I turn the reverse game over to warspite1.

I am open to ideas and suggestions.

I suspect that Japan has some units to move so I would like to do so myself if my memory serves).

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I don't know what Italians could do right now.

Planes are used, subs are used and there is no reason to fight in Med. Keep unit on French border, 4 corps less to fight Germans in north.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Nordic 1:

Suggested end of turn orders for France and USSR. Comments and suggested changes are both welcome and appreciated.


Prod Plan Prelim

France:
Save oil from Iraq in Damascus.
clear the idle on the CW oil in Port of Spain.
Suggest that CW change their convoy lines so that the Senegal oil can be transported to France.
The oil lent from CW go to production.
These changes expect to give France 10 BPs and 1 additional oil saved.

USSR:
USSR changes their oil resource from saved to production.
16 BPs expected.

Stay At Sea:

France:
All available ships stay at sea.(Including the BBs in the North Sea)

Return To Base:

France:
The 3 cruisers in CSV return to Mogador in Morocco

Use Oil:

USSR:
Reorganize the two LND3 in Persia for 0.4 oil. (Rounded to no oil at all)

France:
Reorganize the three cruisers and the TRS for no oil. Unless USA plans to not intern the French CV (Getting worried here). Then the CV is reorganized instead of the TRS.

Break Down:
USSR breaks down the 11th INF in Leningrad to two divisions.

Production:

France (10):
INF
GARR
AT
FTR2

USSR (16):
2 x INF
CAV
ARM
Pilot

Reinforcements:

France:
CP -> Libreville, Gabon
ARM -> Paris
MECH -> Paris

USSR:
FTR2 (I-153) -> Leningrad
INF -> Murmansk

Resource Lending:
France trade the Hanoi resource to China

France suggest that the trade to France is somewhat reduced.

Initiative:
Suggest that we do not demand re-roll. Weather is likely to be fine so I suspect that Italy will enter the war. And Belgium. If we win the initiative should we let Axis go first anyway or should we go first?

Sound good, except the convoy line part [X(] Let's how that goes.

I kind of forgot to intern that French CV. Will do that next turn end.