I guess you concentrated on capturing Moscow in '41?
South is a major problem, you should have aimed to cross and hold Dnepr along it's whole length during '41 and First Winter. Now it seems you'll be facing a fortified Dnepr in summer '42...
I'd probably forget about south at first and try to breach through Kursk-Orel sector, and threaten both north and south from there. Make a big push south before you reach Voronezh (the opponent will probably try to protect it), and aim for Rostov to cut supply or force a retreat for that whole southern part of the Soviet front. Try to avoid big river lines since they'll probably be fortified.
Completely freeze and minimize the northern front, but keep enough units in the center so as to threaten both Tula and Moscow and keep Soviet units tied up in there.
The situation looks pretty grim, and you need a really big and aggressive land-grabs to push the Soviets enough east to prevent an easy steamroller heading west from 43 onwards. Your OOB is OK, but Soviet OOB is quite high, so you need to make some big ambitious pockets out there.
Concentrate your forces, don't spread out too much. You need to thin your line (starting from March already?) and risk losing ground in non-important sectors to be able to gather offensive fists strong enough to make big breakthroughs. Good luck
