The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

3/29/45

DEI: The old "South China Sea KB" suddenly quit escort duty and moved strongly south, as if to threaten the DEI. John has to realize how important Boela is. There's a small chance he's desperate enough to take it on. But I can't believe he'll do so.

Allies making some progress in Timor, trying to pick up a few base points here and there.

[Canoerebel]

3/29/45

Malaya: Allies now beginning to roll forward in Malaya. The question is whether John has any serious defenses between Georgetown and Singapore. I don't know yet.

[Canoerebel]

3/29/45

Operation Unicycle: The Strategic Bombing attack against Nagasaki goes well, scoring roughly 400 points. That's less than I had expected given the hits registered but still a decent day. A carrier strike vs. Fukuoka didn't score many hits...because my naval strike pilots don't have high ground bombing ratings. Why didn't I think of that before I ordered the strike?

Korea: Allied army moving on Moppo in good order. I don't think the enemy garrison is significant.

China: A very big day for the Allies here. 3rd IJA Tank Division shock attacked at about 1:350 odds and gutted itself. And the Chinese took Hankow from a 35k Japanese army that lost about 500 combat and support squads. I think the Japanese counteroffensive in China is about to fall apart.

[paullus99]

You've been targeting Nagasaki for a while now....why keep "bouncing the rubble," when there are undamaged cities out there which would be worth a lot more points?

You have massive bomber force now - you need to hit the next target with the same level of effort & generate more points.

[Canoerebel]

Lots of reasons:
1. Nagasaki still has more than enough good industry to hit.
2. Nagasaki is the only major target in the vicinity with industry.
3. John had pulled his daytime fighters out of Nagasaki.
4. Shimonoseki, the next closest major base with good industry targets, has had a lot of daytime fighters.
5. Nagasaki is easily within range of Gunzan and my carriers....but also bombers from Taichu, Taihoku, Ningpo and Shanghai, and fighters at Shanghai are in range to sweep or escort.
6. Major targets further north have about none of these advantages.

[Canoerebel]

3/30/45

Why Nagasaka, again? This gives more perspective.

[Canoerebel]

3/30/45

DEI: It doesn't look like John has designs on Boela, but he chose a most peculiar target instead, and nearly paid dearly for it.

[Canoerebel]

3/30/45

China: A week ago, John predicted the Japanese would push back the Allied army in China "200 to 350 miles." Thus far he's pushed it back 0 miles, and it looks like the Japanese counteroffensive is collapsing. Allied 4EB, 2EB and 1EB will concentrate on this theater tomorrow, especially on the big enemy units in base hexes. I think we're about to see the disintegration of organized resistance in China.

Korea: This is a tougher theater, as John has a powerful army here. I don't think he realizes the extent of Allied reinforcements. His army is a bit spread out and subject to heavy attacks by air and sometimes by sea. I think he's going to be hurting here in a week.

Operation Unicycle: Tough fighting over Nagasaki today with both sides taking equal air losses. Despite powerful bombing runs, the Allies score only about 200 points. But, as noted on the map, everything going on in this theater - air, sea, land - seems synergetic at the moment.

[Canoerebel]

3/30/45

Air War: Here are screen showing the air losses today and for the war.

Today: Heavy losses for both sides, as John put up 100+ fighters on CAP over Nagasaki. Continuing the trend, Allied losses are spread out (though 70 Corsairs downed, which is stout) while good Japanese fighters form the brunt of his losses.

War: I don't have any idea how deep John's pool are or should be at this point. He's lost 6000+ Franks (both models) and 2000+ Sams and is now once again using the Tony, which I think indicates he's having to use everything he can.

For now, the Allies pools are fine and I can afford to keep this up for awhile, hoping to break the back of John's fighter capabilities. IE, I'm hoping the air war is going to model what's going on in the ground war in China. But am I wrong? Are IJ pools so deep that the opposite will happen?

[Canoerebel]

By March 15, the Allies led 128.6k to 74k. That was a lead of 54.6k. I was 19.4k from auto-victory.

That was at the end of four-week period in which I engaged in limited air operations due to supply woes. Around the 20th, supply arrived in quantity, allowing me to resume air operations.

As of March 30, fifteen days later, the Allied lead is 134.4k to 75k. That's a lead of 59.6k. The Allies are 15.4k from auto-victory, an improvement of 4k in half a month.

At that rate, the Allies have two months to auto-victory. On the optimistic side, the rate may continue to increase as the Allied advantage increases with the (apparent) imminent collapse of the Japanese in China and their toubles in Korea.

On the pessimistic side, I can't sustain this rate of air operations much longer. Using massed bombers every day results in fatigue as well as the usual losses. I think the advantages gained will make up for this issue, but the proof will be in the pudding rather than in the projections.

Overall, though, the second half of March has been pretty robust for the Allies. Momentum seems to be increasing.

[T Rav]

Any chance of a Strat Map screen shot?

Thanks,
T Rav

[Canoerebel]

3/30/45

Strategic Map

[paullus99]

Okay, I get why you're hitting Nagasaki - because you're forcing him to pull in plenty of fighters each and every time to defend....making him bleed.

Just be aware, the more damage you do, the less points will be left over to make up for the plane losses.

[T Rav]

Lots of green on the Strat Map. Like it.

[Zecke]

Yes; good to see the Green....Knight; do you know him Canoerebel; you look like (good); nice map nice AAR

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Zecke
Yes; good to see the Green....Knight; do you know him Canoerebel; you look like (good); nice map nice AAR

Thanks for reading, Zecke. I don't believe I know Knight.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/45

Intelligence Screen: The Allies have been on a roll, but the bombing sabbatical from mid-February through mid-March may have affected the projected auto-victory date. On the other hand, things do seem to be taking on a snowballing aspect, given the situation in Malaya, China and Korea. The Allies have strong positions and plentiful supply. Perhaps I can nudge things back on track.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/45

DEI: CA Mikuma takes a torpedo at Sabang. New Zealand brigade takes Dili.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/45

Malaya: Paratroop assault succeeds at Kuala Lumpur, so the Singapore campaign gets a big boost in the right direction.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/45

China: This theater is beginning to take on the characteristics of Western Europe in early 1945. The Allies are rolling, the Japanese are reeling, and the rout may be on. But perhaps John has reserves that can restore order.

Korea: Korea seems more like Normandy in July '44. The "Germans" are here in strength, the maneuvering room isn't huge, Allied reinforcements are pouring in, and I'm working various angels to flip the field by bottling up and destroying the enemy army south of Keijo before turning north.