The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Destroying industry is kind of like searching for the Holy Grail or going on a snipe hunt. It's legendary, mythical, alluring and impossible or nearly so.

Setting firestorms to destroy industry doesn't happen. It may have happened somewhere at some time, but I've never heard about it if it has. At least in a PBEM game.

I need 14,000 points to win the game. I'm going to focus on what I know how to do best and get the job done as quickly as possible. Hitting specific targets in daytime raids against undefended or poorly defended bases is the most expedient means I know, at least at the moment. Trying to achieve firestorms by nighttime bombing would be an exercise in diverting the means needed to achieve victory.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/45

Battle of Keijo: This key battle opened today with a probing deliberate attack meant to sniff out the strength of the enemy defenses.

The attack revealed three forts (that's good), that the core enemy divisions are very weak, the presence of a disruption malus, and the absence of a supply malus.

My two armored units inflicted some damage while taking modest damage in return. In fact, both can participate in the general deliberate attack tomorrow.

This attack was preceded by four or five bombardment TFs hitting the base, destroying 4 combat squads and disabling 85 others. This has been going on for a week now.

I think the enemy garrison is in bad shape but the prospect of an attack in 4x urban terrain is daunting. I don't want to shred my units in return for the base.

Note the presence of the big combat engineering units here. I'm hoping they'll be useful in knocking down forts, of course, but they may also help soak up enemy fire. They probably won't be needed in this theater once Keijo falls. In fact, I'm considering sending at least one of them to Malaya to lend a hand with Singers.

Overall, I'd say this was an encouraging result for Keijo.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/45


Raid on Hiroshima: Another strong raid against light opposition grosses pretty good point totals. Hiroshima was hit hard but probably needs one more similar raid to neutralize it. That'll take place at some point in the future, as I don't want to hit the same target on consecutive days, at least not yet.

An interesting note. Yesterday I poo-pooed the Hellcat against good opposition. But I've been using them lately, more from necessity than desire. I try to limit them to targets I'm sure are weakly defended. Today two big squadrons swept Shimonoseki and found a decent number of Georges and Sams. The enemy pilots must have been low quality, becuase the Hellcats scored a 29:2 victory.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/45

KB South: He's at it again.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/45

Asia: A good day in China and in Korea. Key attacks tomorrow at Keijo (a base worth a lot of points) and Chengchow (a base needed to expedite the campaign to pocket and destroy a Japanese army).

[RangerJoe]

Maybe the best Japanese pilots are on his carriers and at the big three CAP bases. If you can do sweeps away from those locations, you will probably find so-so pilots who would be effective against bombers but not against quality Allied fighters and pilots.

I you have some extra American PBY squadrons or even parts of squadrons, maybe try some night torpedo attacks. I have gotten lucky with some attacks and even got a critical torpedo hit on the Musashi which led to its sinking the next day.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/45

Malaya: The advance on Singapore continues. The war here might be bloody, so whether I'll press hard remains to be seen. The war in Korea and China and against the Home Islands is efficient. As long as I'm making good progress towards victory there, there may not be a need to push hard in Malaya.

[Barb]

Why do not try a massed B-29/B-24 daylight manpower attack on some city with about 20 Manpower and host of other industries with weak cap? Just to see what it does in terms of factories destroyed and thus strategic points scored...

[Canoerebel]

I've tried a few. They don't come close to creating firestorms. They don't destroy industry. They set fires and damage industry indirectly. During daytime raids it's far more efficient to damage industry by direct targeting: Resources, Heavy Industry, Light Industry, Armament Assembly, Frank Factory, etc.

To emphasize what I said yesterday: Nobody has every succeeded in setting a firestorm to destroy industry (except perhaps via atomic bomb). So expirimenting here would be counterproductive by wasting days of heavy bomber concentrations when the end is in sight for the game. Why would I do that?

[Canoerebel]

IE, this isn't the time to take my foot off the gas pedal.

There seem to be alot of ideas that setting firestorms and destroying industry is actually possible. I've never seen a post by a player who succeeded in doing it in a PBEM game (nor any game, I think). The only way it's been done is via atomic bomb, IIRC.

[AcePylut]

I've seen people start firestorms (been a long time) and get those fires up in the millions. IIRC they would bomb at day and night, manpower, at 9k feet or so.

[Canoerebel]

I'd be interested in learning more and reading more. It's a neat concept but I have little actual information to work with.

For now, as my game with John winds down towards the end, I hope readers can understand that predictably bombing the same target, day and night, and presumably day after day, would be a sure way to lose my bombers.

[alaviner]

How much cap does he still have in the DEI? Could there be some easy points scored at Palembang or other such places?

[Canoerebel]

No points are given for strategic bombing outside the Home Islands.

I will probably engage in some DEI bombing in the near- to medium term, but that won't be to score Strategic points directly. It'll be to hit select military targets and probably to reduce supply at Singers so that John doesn't get his full allotment of points for the base.

If the war lasts long enough, the Allies are likely to invade Palembang and possibly Medan and Java. Those are mainly "just in case" targets - just in case something goes wrong so that the war is extended, requiring more stakes into the heart of the Japanese Vampire....I mean Empire.

[Canoerebel]

At the current pace of operations, the war should last about 30 to 45 days. If John strikes hard and scores a bunch of points, that could be extended. If the collapse of the Empire accelerates, which is definitely possible, that could be sooner.

Within a week, I expect the Allies to lay siege to Singapore and Peiping. I think there's a decent chance Keijo will fall within a week or two. While that's going on, the 4EB will keep hitting Japan hard.

As soon as Keijo falls, I'll be making some big choices. I have 7,000 AV in southern Korea. I think I'll prep the units for the Home Islands while not expecting the war to last nearly long enough to trigger an invasion. In the meantime, the Allied army in Korea will move north, post haste, to campaign for Mukden, Harbin, etc. This will be synergistic with the Allied campaign in northern China.

I won't need full Death Star for those campaigns. Neither am I inclined to employ DS against the Home Island (I can already do that from the Yellow Sea or transferring my aircraf to Korea bases - I already have a level 9, level 8 and level 6, with more to come. I see no profit in giving John's accumulated kamikazes a short-range opportunity against Death Star.

Instead, I'm likely to divide DS into two powerful forces. One half will remain on station here. The other half will head to the DEI. The mission down there will be the usual supply escorting duty plus invasions of Makassar, Balikpapan, Palembang and Java. The units and shipping are in place and 100% prepped.

There probably isn't enough time left in the game to even accomplish those medium-term operations, but they're available if needed.

The Allies are currently 13.5k points from victory. In the past nine days, I've scored 4,000 points. John has scored 1,000. The net change has been +3,000. At that rate, I'd need about five weeks to achieve victory. But the fall of Keijo, the possible fall of Peiping, the disintegration of the Japanese army in China, the perilous state of the Japanese army in Korea, and the increasingly effective 4EB campaign raise the possiblity the Japan is on the verge of collapse.

To add mystery and intrigue to the mix, John still has a strong KB and a rather massive air force. He has the ability to strike and sting and delay what seems inevitable.

The Victory Point system is what makes this all fun at this point.

[jwolf]

In the meantime, the Allied army in Korea will move north, post haste, to campaign for Mukden, Harbin, etc.

I'll confess that as a fan I really like the idea of moving toward Manchuria to trigger the Soviets. This may or may not make any sense tactically or strategically but it would be supremely entertaining! [8D]

[Canoerebel]

I think the Allied army in Korea counts as being in Manchuria. The advance of the army in China towards the Manchurian frontier therefore is what enhances the prospect of Manchurian activation.

At this late date in the game, Russian activation would be piling on. Two months ago it would've been a material aid. The Russians would have trouble advancing to meaningful bases in the time remaining, but the Russian air force might help out considerably with bombing places like Hokkaido and Sikhalin Island.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/45

Battle of Kiejo: The opening Allied general attack results in a 2:1, drops forts to 2, and inflicts heavier casualties on the enemy. My units are in good shape and will attack again tomorrow. I've shifted one armored unit over to shock attack.

The attack was preceded by heavy bombardments by sea and modest B-25 raids. The same will take place tomorrow.

Unless John reinforces, Keijo should fall in one or two more attacks. The rail lines to the north are open, so he can reinforce but I don't get the feel that he has troops inbound.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/45

Battle of Chengchow: Key victory for the Chinese to open the railroad.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/45

Korea: An Allied attack southeast of Gunzan is repulsed handsomely. IJA 5th Division's unexpected arrival was the decisive factor. My guys only suffered five squads destroyed and look okay to fight well tomorrow, should John counterattack. But this division won't be in optimal shape when the time comes to move on Fusan.