The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: nicwb

In other words, the game is going to end by medium-term. I'm 100% it will end no later than the end of May. There's a chance it could end in early May. There's a remote chance it could end by the end of April.



Vegas bookies are giving a wider time spread.

Isn't the real question whether Canoerebel's AAR will hit 500 pages before the war ends ?

In the seedy part of the forum bets are being taken on the end of the war date.

[Canoerebel]

4/13/45

Asia: Keijo falls, the Japanese collapse in China continues, and Allied 4EB hit Kobe hard and face no opposition.

These are dark days for Japan. John sent this humorous and historically applicable email: "Let April 13, 1945 be the benchmark for when Imperial Japan began serious surrender discussions at the highest levels of its government. It doesn’t leak to the people but it does to American Intelligence.

"Damn. The combat firepower you have is AMAZING."

It's just a cascade of disasters for him everywhere, at the moment. He still has the ability to strike and hard, if he picks the right time and location, but mostly he's staggering around punch drunk. And kudos to him for keeping up the fight when it's just about hopeless.

I don't think this is analogous to the Allied command in October 1944, thinking resistance had broken and that the end was nigh even as the Germans were stiffening, counterattacking, and drawing lots of blood. I think this is more like Germany in March 1945. There's still hard fighting to do; there's still traps to avoid; and it takes time for a government to reach the point of willing capitulation. That point (2:1) is now just 10k points away. The Allied lead is 142k to 76k.

Here, near the end, KB is dispersed and the Divine Wind has never shown itself. I think John would prefer to go down fighting rather than having peace break out while KB is still intact. But I don't know. 2:1 isn't far off.

[RangerJoe]

WOW! The continued explosion in China and Korea is astounding. The China advance is is spearheaded by while in Korea the 1st Cav helped take care of the IJA.

[Canoerebel]

4/14/45

Korea: Engineers bump Keijo airfield from 2 to 3 in one day. The Allied army at Keijo is fanning out and attacking.

China: The collapse continues.

Strategic Bombing: A productive raid vs. Kobe with no 4EB lost.

[Canoerebel]

4/14/45

Intelligence Screen: Since the last post on 4/1/45, the Allies have done particular well in Strategic Bombing and Army Loss points.

[Lokasenna]

Closer to 6:1 than 8:1, but I quibble.

[obvert]

The work done in China and Korea destroying the Expeditionary Army is almost as important as the strategic bombing. Almost. [;)]

Looks like a few more corals full of beasts to tame and send to pasture there too.

I just posted in John's AAR about this after he posted your "Vampire/Empire" note:

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Enjoy these last days of the game and go out in a blaze of glory John!! Glad this one is seeing a fitting end, well into 45 and still contested. I made a bet with Chickenboy ages ago, when the Sumatra stuff was happening I think, that this game would see 45.

When you both took a pause for a time, and Dan did some hiking, I paid of the debt. A while back Andre got in touch asking if I wanted my money back and some to pay his end of the now 'lost' wager as you both charged into 45. I declined. It's just my small tithe to this epic match, and glad I could pay the gods of the game for their persistence in getting you guys back in action! [:D][/font]

[Canoerebel]

One of the two great pleasures of playing this deeply into 1945 has been getting to use the full arsenal of Allied weaponry, not because I have new and snazzy stuff, but because I finally achieved the position from which to implement that which has come "online" over the past year or so. The second pleasure was seeing through to fruition a plan in place since mid-1943 that, in turn, was built on the foundation of the Sumatra Campaign.

There aren't many players willing to go this deep and long into the game. It must be awfully tempting to bail out when the war truly becomes hopeless. John didn't do so, partly becuase he preserved KB so long, partly because he didn't want to give in, and partly (I suspect) through the encouragement and counseling of his readers. I owe John a great deal for sticking it out. And I owe the Victory Point system of the designer in making sticking it out worthwhile, challenging and fun.

Obvert, I well remember your prediction and Chickenboy's and the words of others, like crsutton (as best I can tell, Ross is nearly always right in anything he says, but he keeps a pretty low profile). So many, many good people read my AAR or John's or both. It goes well beyond the game. For instance, Ross highly recommended reading The Good Shepherd, which I tracked down, ordered, and read, much to my delight. John Dillworth recommended With the Old Breed, which I tracked down and read twice now. And somebody came along six or eight mnths ago and provided a YouTube link the The Band singing "The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down," something I've watched/listened to scores of times since then. You guys read stuff that I write and provide helpful feedback or encouragement or admonishment. Lokasenna taught me the term Purple Prose. John Dillworth, a resident of Long Island, which is 18 light years distant from the place I live, is a gentleman who, in temperament, seems like a lifelong friend.

And sometimes I get ill or crosswise with the good people of the Forum. I've managed to give offense to some good people who no longer hang around - one of whom was so irritated he declined my request for help. Even though we got crosswise or I made them cross, I knew that all are good guys. Sometimes, guys get crosswise, like Eisenhower and Monty or Patton and Bradley. The Forum is made up of bright people who know what they are doing and don't take well to ignorance or obstinancy or petulance. But the Forum at the moment is a really special place.

I'm gonna drive a stake through the heart of the Vampire. Then I'm going to miss this game and miss creating something that brings in (and occasionaly drives away) people of such quality.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Very impressive.

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

John finally hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his pilots, it seems. The fact that he's got plenty of pilots on carriers well away from the main action is very telling.

Maybe he's got another "India - 1945" operation under his belt?

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

Not so sure. The Marines occupied populated parts of China right after the war (and took causalities) and the situation was deteriorating. There was going to be a winner take all civil war once the Japanese were dispatched no matter what. I suspect we did what we could, realized it was not enough, and retreated in good order. If you have not read "With the Old Breed" you are missing one of the great memoirs of the war. Much later on he wrote a follow up, China Marine, about his short stay as part of the occupation force in China. It's a glimpse into a dying culture that Communism would eradicate from the earth

I think you are right about that. Even though Chiang was a fierce nationalist and hated colonialism, he was tainted with the alliances he made with the West during the war and could not escape it in the minds of the Chinese population. The Civil War was first and foremost a nationalistic movement and the Communists kept enough distance from the Allies before and during the war to give them legitimacy. It was not just about communism but the national desire of the Chinese to be rid of outside influences. No amount of Western forces in China would have changed the outcome. This is my over-simplification of complex events but I think it is the just of the argument.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Very impressive.

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

John finally hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to his pilots, it seems. The fact that he's got plenty of pilots on carriers well away from the main action is very telling.

Maybe he's got another "India - 1945" operation under his belt?

I'd much prefer your post-war Asia to the one that we got historically.

Not so sure. The Marines occupied populated parts of China right after the war (and took causalities) and the situation was deteriorating. There was going to be a winner take all civil war once the Japanese were dispatched no matter what. I suspect we did what we could, realized it was not enough, and retreated in good order. If you have not read "With the Old Breed" you are missing one of the great memoirs of the war. Much later on he wrote a follow up, China Marine, about his short stay as part of the occupation force in China. It's a glimpse into a dying culture that Communism would eradicate from the earth

I think you are right about that. Even though Chiang was a fierce nationalist and hated colonialism, he was tainted with the alliances he made with the West during the war and could not escape it in the minds of the Chinese population. The Civil War was first and foremost a nationalistic movement and the Communists kept enough distance from the Allies before and during the war to give them legitimacy. It was not just about communism but the national desire of the Chinese to be rid of outside influences. No amount of Western forces in China would have changed the outcome. This is my over-simplification of complex events but I think it is the just of the argument.

Interesting - exactly the thoughts about self-determination I have seen in several countries including Cuba. It ought to be our first assumption about why people are fighting us, before we slap labels like communist or terrorist on them. It might change our approach to a more effective/less costly one.

[paullus99]

I would say, however, that the enormous numbers of Western Forces committed to China (and Korea) would fundamentally change the outlook after the war.

At minimum, there would be no divided Korea & a real possibility of a relatively stable nationalist Chinese government after the war - at least in the short term.

[JohnDillworth]

Perhaps but I would not underestimate the Americans desire to be done with all of this. They had no colonial ambitions or empires beyond the Philippines and cared little about helping Europe regain theirs. Their soldiers wanted to go home and the Soviet Union was an ally, not a competitor. I think the occupation of Japan would have gone on and not much more. I think they quickly realized that the Chinese were more than ready to pick up where they left off before Japan forced the uneasy alliance between the Nationalists and the Communists. The United States really didn’t challenge Stalin’s European land grab so I think they would take serious sides in China. The United States armed forces really though of themselves as civilians , not full time soldiers. There would have been considerable unrest if they were asked to engage in another Asian war.

[AcePylut]

We would have been free from Russia interference for a couple-few years. Because we had the bomb, and they didn't, and there was no fears of "nuclear winter" or "MAD".

[crsutton]

No, not at all. Half a million American troops did not change the fundamental outlook in North Vietnam and would not have affected the national aspirations of half a billion Chinese and Koreans. It all was a backlash against 200 years of Western interference. Short and simple. Nobody wants foreigners calling the shots. Look at our own US response to British dominance. If we had stayed and tried harder, we would have become the same as the Japanese in their eyes. As it was, it soured our relationship with the (communist) Chinese for decades after. And they still have little trust for us today.

[JohnDillworth]

John Dillworth, a resident of Long Island, which is 18 light years distant from the place I live, is a gentleman who, in temperament, seems like a lifelong friend.

I am truly and deeply touched. I feel the same. I enjoy the company of gentlemen here. Most places of common discourse have been somewhat poised by politics these days. A tip of the cap to the moderators and fellow members who shut down such discussions quickly. Dan, I expect I am the polar opposite of you on many things and it does not matter a single bit. I've had the pleasure to get to know you, and others, by an odd little common interest in a war fought 70+ years ago. That's what brought us all together , but we discuss much more and all us us have much in common beyond the War in the Pacific. I expect I may read this AAR again and revisit some of the tangent conversations (we just did a couple of pages on oak trees recently!). Thanks for keeping this alive. I'm sure this is just the end of a chapter and we shall all be around this forum for a good long time to come.

[RangerJoe]

I have learned a lot here and not just about the game. Since I lost my bookmarks, I am going to go over the entire AAR later and make a file for all of the books that were recommended.

I have also learned that I will NOT want to hike where Dan does since I might have to get airlifted out!

[RangerJoe]

I think that once the Soviets gave the Communist Chinese a lot if not all of the captured Japanese equipment beside what the Communist Chinese the American equipment that they received during the war, the the Red Army was capable of taking on the Nationalist Chinese Army. In the world in this simulation, the Soviets won't have that much Japanese equipment to give away.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I think that once the Soviets gave the Communist Chinese a lot if not all of the captured Japanese equipment beside what the Communist Chinese the American equipment that they received during the war, the the Red Army was capable of taking on the Nationalist Chinese Army. In the world in this simulation, the Soviets won't have that much Japanese equipment to give away.

The Soviets gave surprisingly little support to the Red Chinese, and the Nationalist Chinese were flooded with American surplus equipment and support in the initial stages of the post war Civil War. It was not about the material because the Nationalists were surely better equipped. Captured Japanese equipment was not much of a bonus and since the Japanese troops were primarily occupying Nationalist territory and not Red Chinese, my guess is that the vast bulk of captured Japanese equipment did not fall into the hands of the Reds.

[Canoerebel]

4/15/45

I'm in the midst of proofing the Spring 2018 issue of the magazine. I managed to squeeze in a turn yesterday but not an AAR post. That's pretty rare. So this post is a day late.

Asia: Weather socks in the 4EB but the Allies are moving in Korea and China. Wenchow falls and it's D-Day for the invasion of Antung, which is Manchukuo proper.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I think that once the Soviets gave the Communist Chinese a lot if not all of the captured Japanese equipment beside what the Communist Chinese the American equipment that they received during the war, the the Red Army was capable of taking on the Nationalist Chinese Army. In the world in this simulation, the Soviets won't have that much Japanese equipment to give away.

The Soviets gave surprisingly little support to the Red Chinese, and the Nationalist Chinese were flooded with American surplus equipment and support in the initial stages of the post war Civil War. It was not about the material because the Nationalists were surely better equipped. Captured Japanese equipment was not much of a bonus and since the Japanese troops were primarily occupying Nationalist territory and not Red Chinese, my guess is that the vast bulk of captured Japanese equipment did not fall into the hands of the Reds.

The equipment is a red herring.

The KMT lost the post WWII Civil War before it even started. The great inflation of 1943 eroded the support for the KMT. With the inflation came starvation. Compared to the much better administered Communist controlled area where the social fabric had not been similarly affected, not too many of the ordinary people who lived in Nationalist controlled territory had much goodwill left towards Chiang after 1945.

Alfred