The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Powloon]

Just wondered if you have any assault shipping in the Malaya area? You have many units already prepped at 100% why not try an amphibious invasion based out of Johre Bahru under heavy CAP rather than a crossing? Obviously Japanese players avoid this in 42 due to the big CD unit there but John is unlikely to have anything on that scale there.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Communique from John III, graduate of the Keith Olbermann School of Diplomacy:

You are correct that the VP’s are moving but not that fast. You had a chance to bag a BUNCH of VP with that botched CV attack. Appreciated all those Fighters on CAP and not available to fly as escorts. I’ve never been a VP person. You know that but if this instance it makes sense to me. Thought we’d hit 2-1 about now but have managed to slightly move it back. We have bets from Forum players as to when that number is reached.

Looks like you get to experience what every Japanese player does in assaulting Singapore. Might be pretty interesting to watch.

Botched?

He thought we'd hit 2:1 about now? He told me ten days ago that he'd put his money on May 10.

I'm still not sure about Singers, but his thoughts on the matter are appreciated.

Please let me know if I ever make the list of KOSD graduates. We all say things that are intended differently and/or misinterpreted through textual communication ...

... but John seems to lack a filter completely sometimes. I wouldn't mind his audacity in pointing out things you might have missed if he could take it coming back the other way. Not sure that's the case though. Hey, we can't all be diplomats, and at least you guys maintain a good relationship outside of game communication emails.

[Canoerebel]

I'll let you know, Obvert, but I don't think there's any possibility of that happening. It's just not your personality. I've played a sizeable number of opponents now. None has been remotely like John III.

Sometimes, especially earlier in the game, I find his in-game conduct infuriating - especially when he seems to cross a line into goading or taunting. Unfortunately, he is prone to doing that.

Later in the game, when he's really struggling, there's sometimes a pathetic aspect. "Thought we'd hit 2:1 about now" is an example, given that he'd recently made a big deal of predicting a May 10 capitulation date. Back in late '43, as the Allies were moving towards the DEI for Big Tent, he kept sending emails predicting I was going to land at Manikwari, Biak and Sabang, as if that was hard to guess when a big fleet had passed Truk and was moving west. I wanted to ask him why, if he was prescient, he hadn't garrisoned the bases? The answer, of course, was he hadn't foreseen anything until the ships were bearing down on those targets and there were no other targets in between. (The actual suite of major targets was Manokwari, Sabang, Morotai, Boela, and Ambon, none of which were defended).

But the bigger picture remains the same - outside the game, we have become good friends....and the matters of everyday life offer perspective: his mom's situation...and reminders served by events like SqzMyLemon's jarring news. Hey, it's a game, and part of playing John III is dealing with his erratic and sometimes annoying in-game personality.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Powloon

Just wondered if you have any assault shipping in the Malaya area? You have many units already prepped at 100% why not try an amphibious invasion based out of Johre Bahru under heavy CAP rather than a crossing? Obviously Japanese players avoid this in 42 due to the big CD unit there but John is unlikely to have anything on that scale there.

That's a good idea! Yes, I have assault shipping and 7th Australian Div. 100% prepped for Singers and sitting on Mindanao. I've given thought to an amphibious invasion and probably will trigger one if and when Death Star comes south to handle things in the DEI. THat nearly happened two turns back until John caught wind of the move. So I cancelled it and think it's more likely the war will end with Death Star in the Yellow Sea. But the option is open and under evaluation every turn.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for a thorough analysis with helpful advice/thoughts.

Hey, you've been lurking more than two years with just 26 posts? You clearly have a lot of experience. Who art thou?

ORIGINAL: IJV

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Probably not pretty?

Probably not, but I suppose the open question is whether it would matter.

J3 is probably about right in saying that you're experiencing what the Japanese do in attacking Singapore - your force looks about the size of the average Japanese force c. 1942; the defending force, by your estimate, is about the size of the average Allied force c.1942; the base control geography is about the same, just inverted, and the relative firepower difference is probably a bit better than in the roles-reversed scenario. So, think about how the Singapore assaults tend to go from the Japanese perspective:

- There's an initial strait crossing whiff into strong fortifications that causes a lot of disablements, slows things down for several days to a week, but causes little lasting damage because the attacking units start essentially intact, with few disablements, so damage is incurred as mostly disablement rather than destruction;

- After that period of rest, the force is mostly back to where it started, bar maybe a couple of bits that have to toddle off to have a nap somewhere quiet; between high experience and, sometimes, splitting units, disabled devices recover quickly;

- Attacks can then occur; they can sometimes be awkward but it's easy enough to move units in and out, and there's no particular need to attack with less than decently healthy units;

- Defenders can't meaningfully contest the air, because other bases are miles away, and can support by sea up to a point but only at risk of unpleasant accidents;

- End result - base falls in 2-4 weeks, attacking force is a bit threadbare about the edges but essentially fine with little long-term damage.

In this scenario I'd probably be inclined, presuming your attacking force has limited disablements and that it'll take a couple of weeks to get the reinforcements into position, to get the crossing over and done with:

- The defending force is probably a couple of divisions at most ie not so much of a force that the combat system starts to go all weird - likely lots of base/support troops and not overly much combat power as the number of guns/vehicles you've posted hasn't suggested anything too frightening;

- Urban terrain works both ways - yes it's painful to hit, but once you're there you're unlikely to be removed, and of course you have malaria on the one side but not the other (unless Johore is significantly built out?);

- Ultimately, if you cross now, you probably won't be significantly worse off than you would have been by the time the reinforcing force arrives, with the extra bonuses that you won't need to fret about further reinforcements and that the additional force wil be able to just waltz in without any fuss.

Or I could be completely wrong and you'll get hopelessly beaten up. Only one way to find out...

[jwolf]

The main difference at Singapore now vs. 1942 is that the Japanese presumably have much higher forts than the British did back then.

[Canoerebel]

Right.

I've had some miserable experiences hitting atolls with six forts, so the thought of Singers with nine is pretty frightening.

Is Singers also Light Urban terrain (I can't tell from my map, because mouseover info is concealed by unit info at the base.

[Alfred]

A sea invasion of Singapore is not a good idea.  You would be landing troops with no supply line.
 
Crossing the Johore Strait is the correct path to take.
 
Based on post #13757 the Japanese garrison at Singapore is only about 1140 AV.  That represents about 50% of the size of the Allied army fully prepped for Singapore.  Furthermore the discrepancy between the two sides in firepower terms will be considerably greater in favour of the Allied army.
 
Cross the Johore Strait and most of the Allied casualties will be only disablements whereas because of the firepower discrepancy together with the nature of it being an auto shock attack, a substantial part of the Japanese casualties will be outright killed devices.  Quite likely that the forts will be lowered 1 or 2 levels just from the auto shock attack.  Plus you will then have a secure overland supply line back to your supply depots and no need to run the gauntlet of losing ships bringing in supply.
 
Once across, your army will starve the Japanese garrison without the need to do anything.  Consequently it will be the Japanese who will need to run the gauntlet of shipping in supply or allowing their army to weaken from starvation and become easy pickings for a recovered Allied army attacking.
 
Alfred

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Alfred. That's very helpful information.

I had considered opening the siege with an invasion by 7th Aussie Div. and a US combat engineer unit (both 100% prepped and currently in the southern Philippines), just before the river crossing by the main army.

I'll give all of this more thought.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right.

I've had some miserable experiences hitting atolls with six forts, so the thought of Singers with nine is pretty frightening.

Is Singers also Light Urban terrain (I can't tell from my map, because mouseover info is concealed by unit info at the base.

I doubt that Singapore has level 9 forts.

Japan is not as well equipped with construction engineers as are the Allies. Furthermore the time and supply cost to build above level 6 is substantial and requires a constant minimum of 25k supply. The size of the Japanese garrison disclosed in your screenshots would not have necessitated having 25k+. In those circumstances how likely do you think that supply would have been consistently shipped in to Singapore by Japan.

Whilst one cannot be absolutely certain that the Singapore forts are not above level 6, the odds are that at most they are only level 6, and that assumes your opponent saw the potential threat to Singapore some time ago. Which would be quite a prophylactic action in an environment where he has been focused on land combat in China and Korea plus countering your bombing of the Home Islands.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

That makes sense. Thanks for the info and insight.

I have another 900 AV mostly 100% prepped a hex away plus lots more artillery. I'll bring some of that forward for the assault, leaving some behind as a rear-guard, especially the lower value units like a West African div. with '41 squads. Perhaps I'll try the crossing with about 2,500 AV.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. to Newer Readers: I think Alfred (and a few other experienced players) are able to use some basic information to arrive at educated estimates of Assault Value. In this case, Alfred used the number of men, guns and AFVs to arrive at his estimate of 1100 (or so) AV. If I'm incorrect, he'll correct me shortly, I hope.

[jwolf]

After you make the crossing, more units can be brought in without the auto shock attack. So it would make sense to me, FWIW, to bring in an initial army on the order of 2000 AV, i.e. what you originally started to cross, and then bring in reinforcements say one division at a time, while also cycling out any units that really took a bad beating in the opening assault. My rationale is to try to minimize how much of your attacking forces get beaten up in the initial crossing.

[Alfred]

Well, crossing with 2500AV is even better.[:)]
 
The river crossing will produce disruption in the Allied army.  But starting off with 2500AV will still leave you, (in very simplified terms as the actual combat algorithms utilise different inputs) with effectively "double" the defences which in turn gets "doubled" again from it becoming a shock attack.  Then the greater Allied firepower will come into account.  Those screenshots didn't show substantial numbers of Japanese tanks in Singapore and those present shouldn't be able to cope with your armoured LCUs.
 
The only reason to keep any units behind the Johore Strait is if you are concerned that an enemy LCU can be slipped in behind you and thereby cut the overland supply into Singapore.  Otherwise everything should be moved across in the same turn to overwhelm the enemy garrison in that initial auto shock attack.  You can always immediately send back any Allied unit which is too battered in the crossing.
 
Alfred

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. to Newer Readers: I think Alfred (and a few other experienced players) are able to use some basic information to arrive at educated estimates of Assault Value. In this case, Alfred used the number of men, guns and AFVs to arrive at his estimate of 1100 (or so) AV. If I'm incorrect, he'll correct me shortly, I hope.

For a number of years I have pointed out the rough rule of thumb to determine AV is to divide the number of enemy troops displayed by 30. Post #13757 shows 34440 enemy troops, hence the approximation of 1140 AV. If there is a huge number of AFVs present (relative to the displayed troop number - not applicable here as only 92 AFVs displayed and that includes vehicles) the AV can be adjusted upwards by including between 50-100% of the AFV number.

Alfred

[jwolf]

Hmm, I am admittedly both inexperienced and curious about this. My one direct experience was retaking Singapore vs. the AI around February 1944. When I crossed over from Johore, one of my divisions got thrashed rather badly, but what was really bad is that the combat engineer units really got mauled and I had to replace them with fresh units that were prepping for other targets. With hindsight I thought that I would have done better to hold back the engineers and just cross with the main body of infantry, then bring in the other units afterward. But I am speaking mostly in ignorance and I don't know what is really good practice in this type of situation.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/45

Singers and Combat Engineers: Some info about combat engineers.

[Drakanel]

Since experienced people have deeemed the assault viable, know this:

The peanut gallery demands an assault on Singapore [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Okay. I think I'm going to do it, mainly because it makes military sense to give it a try. I haven't given you guys the decisive game ending carrier battle, but I can give you an Allied attack on Singapore.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/45

I've just gotten the new turn from John and looked at the combat report. It looks like a series of crushing blows for Japan in Korea, China and at Nagasaki. The turn is one of those where the Allied player winces in empathy for the beleaguered opponent. John didn't say anything in this email. I won't say anything either. More later.