The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Enemy Oilers in CenPac: The turn opened with a YMS northwest of Midway getting run over by a fleet of oilers and tankers, providing a sit-up-and-take-notice moment.

I have a CL/DD TF nearby - it's just returned from the Japanese coast on a brief raid to measure detection - in case I want to raid at some point. It's within striking range of the oilers.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

KB: The inveterate raider.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Raid on Nagasaki: Much more effective raids today, due probably to dropping bomber altitude from 10k to 8k.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Kaifeng Pocket: Yesterday, this hex was the isolated IJ army vs. one small US tank battalion. John saw an opportunity to lash out and destroy something. His feelings are understandable but he ordered his entire stack to attack...and mistimed it. The vast Chinese army showed up in the meantime with predictable results. The real harm to John is that now his stack is basically impotent, requiring considerably less attention from the Allied army. A good bit of that army will detach today and begin the move on Peiping.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Battle of Taikyu: Devastating defeat at Taikyu for the Japanese army in Korea. Four divisions get hammered and the integrity of the Japanese defensive line in Korea is broken. The Allied army will now advance and defeat and destroy the Japanese in detail. John, I guess, will try to Dunkirk, but Death Star is on station to contest that effort (and DS strike aircraft sank about ten small-fry (APDs, Es, xAKLs) there today).

For perspective, the Japanese army in southern Korea is as large as the IJ army trapped in the Kaifeng Pocket. Lots of points, if I can destroy the units.

[Lecivius]

Gads, that has GOT to be frustrating. He seems to do this with regularity [:-]

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Intel Screen: A good day for the Allies. It is unlikely the game will end in April but it's nearly a certainty to end within the first ten days of May.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
4/25/45
Kaifeng Pocket: Yesterday, this hex was the isolated IJ army vs. one small US tank battalion. John saw an opportunity to lash out and destroy something. His feelings are understandable but he ordered his entire stack to attack...and mistimed it.

Oh, c'mon... I am frustrated here. Is he throwing the game away already? What was he thinking? What were the chances that the followup army would not catch up being on good roads. He repeatedly bled away his defensive potential in those kind of gambling charges. He should really play some China games against AI Ironman or such to get the feeling of how defensive land war against superior opponent works.

[Canoerebel]

He probably figured, "The game owes me one; I'm due for one." He's had a remarkably bad run with these things, as Lecivius noted, but fate did not smile on him.

[jwolf]

It's not a "remarkably bad run" as though he had a poor night in Vegas. He wasn't "due for one" because your movement and timing of your forces is not random!

[jwolf]

Regarding the ground combat in Korea, this looks exactly like a mirror image of the ground fighting early in the war. What appears to be a nominally fair fight instead turns into a resounding Allied victory, time after time, and that has to be really discouraging for the Japanese player.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right.

I've had some miserable experiences hitting atolls with six forts, so the thought of Singers with nine is pretty frightening.

Is Singers also Light Urban terrain (I can't tell from my map, because mouseover info is concealed by unit info at the base.

I doubt that Singapore has level 9 forts.

Japan is not as well equipped with construction engineers as are the Allies. Furthermore the time and supply cost to build above level 6 is substantial and requires a constant minimum of 25k supply. The size of the Japanese garrison disclosed in your screenshots would not have necessitated having 25k+. In those circumstances how likely do you think that supply would have been consistently shipped in to Singapore by Japan.

Whilst one cannot be absolutely certain that the Singapore forts are not above level 6, the odds are that at most they are only level 6, and that assumes your opponent saw the potential threat to Singapore some time ago. Which would be quite a prophylactic action in an environment where he has been focused on land combat in China and Korea plus countering your bombing of the Home Islands.

Alfred

The bolded part is the reason why I think there aren't substantial forts at Singapore, not the earlier part.

There are a few places where I would think it prudent to build forts to 9 if you can as Japan simply due to their importance - either for VP reasons, location, or both. I don't think John has played that way, though. Singapore would be one of those places.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. to Newer Readers: I think Alfred (and a few other experienced players) are able to use some basic information to arrive at educated estimates of Assault Value. In this case, Alfred used the number of men, guns and AFVs to arrive at his estimate of 1100 (or so) AV. If I'm incorrect, he'll correct me shortly, I hope.

For a number of years I have pointed out the rough rule of thumb to determine AV is to divide the number of enemy troops displayed by 30. Post #13757 shows 34440 enemy troops, hence the approximation of 1140 AV. If there is a huge number of AFVs present (relative to the displayed troop number - not applicable here as only 92 AFVs displayed and that includes vehicles) the AV can be adjusted upwards by including between 50-100% of the AFV number.

Alfred

Can we play "guess the number of gumballs"?!

The previous post, 13750, shows 23 units and 25900 troops, 231 guns, and 68 AFVs. The addition of 9k troops, 140 guns, and 24 AFVs tells me it's probably one of those paper-thin divisions for that 24th unit.

I'm going to go with roughly 1025 AV. Maybe I'm low, but we'll see... I'm betting on a substantial number of those troops being Support devices. It really looks like an understrength division, maybe two (or a few "Mixed Brigades"), plus aviation/support units.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Singers: Latest mouseover really clouds the picture as to what John might have there.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Regarding the ground combat in Korea, this looks exactly like a mirror image of the ground fighting early in the war. What appears to be a nominally fair fight instead turns into a resounding Allied victory, time after time, and that has to be really discouraging for the Japanese player.

A big part of the equation is that 4EB and 2EB hit the enemy troops hard on consecutive days. Yesterday's deliberate attack came come off at 2:1, so I switched two divisions and some armor to shock.

[AcePylut]

Have you considered an amphib invasion of Singapore? It's avoids the auto-shock-attack from the river crossing, and since it's not an atoll, no auto-shock there. I'm not sure of his CD guns there, that's up to you. Probably too late at this point to consider, but that would just be a big ha-ha to Jon. [:D]

I kind of wonder if the whole "Japs have to cross the river since Singapore has monster CD guns" in '41 puts the thought into everyone's mind that you "can't invade Singapore by amphib".

[Canoerebel]

We discussed the amphib. option at length a page back. I think Powloon first brought it up...or Wargamer. I do have troops prepped and amphib. ships available but would need to await Death Star. Since DS is gainfully employed around Korea, I prefer to proceed with a land attack now.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/45

Asia: Image shows the bigger picture.

Air War: 70% of the Allied airforce is tied up in China, Korea and against the Home Islands. Main missions: attack IJ units in China; attack IJ units in Korea; strategic bombing of Home Islands; defense of Allied fleet and major bases like Shanghai and Gunzan. The need for a big air force in China is diminishing rapidly. The need for bombers in Korea should also decline soon. I don't think I can consolidate all those aircraft in Korea - not enough base forces or airfields to handle everything. So a percentage, as yet unedefined but meaningful, is likely to go to Malaya.

Strategic Bombing contributes 50% of the points to the Allied total since August 1 (and even during April, which has seen a great increase in points across the board). But I've nearly exhausted the good targets south of Osaka. Most of the bases are battered; a few have modest industry left, but nothing substantial that might provide high points totals. I'll have to switch over to John's big and well-defended targets like Tokyo, Nagoya, Yokahama, etc. Some probing sweeps by P-47Ns show that those bases are defended by good fighters handled by good pilots. Shortly, big sweeps will try one or more of the bases.

[DRF99]

Not that this game will likely go on long enough, but...

Even though the Soviet Union isn't active, is there anything to prevent you from marching up the east coast of Korea, opening a land route to Vladivostok, marching in some engineers and base forces, and using this as a bomber base to attack northern Japan?

Just wondering.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/25/45

Singers: Latest mouseover really clouds the picture as to what John might have there.

There's obviously some variation day to day.

Is it possible he's airlifted some squads/devices out to Palembang or somewhere else (Borneo I guess)?

I think 75K troops is completely out of the question. Detected/reported troop levels just don't vary by that amount.