How the heck do you calculate odds accurately?

[Crackaces]

One thing .. the SU’s and firepower of the German V’s the Soviet units. I typically see 20-30% disruption in Soviets when they attack my Germans. I stuff art , 50mm, 20mm flak etc into my units and stuff LW 88’s in the HQ’s. The fore mentioned units have poor CV but great firepower that reduces the adjusted Soviet CV in a the end. The stugs will increase CV but also have an excellent disruption effect on Soviet squads.

[morvael]

Yeah, since artillery has 0 CV it's kind of invisible in CV values on the counters, yet it has powerful impact on combat, because it reduces enemy CV greatly by destroying/damaging/disrupting elements.

[Nuklearius]

Well the German combat value was lowered as well, so the issue here are your troops.

What happened is you failed some leader checks, the game doesn't tell you which, but it has a serious effect on Combat Value. There is nothing you can do against it sadly, as it is random and even happens to the best leaders.