Notes from a Small Island

[Chickenboy]

In my opinion, you may want to take at least *one* of the kuriles to avoid complete encirclement of your forces on Sakhalin Is.

[Canoerebel]

Eventually I'll take all of them (or most of them).

I should've also mentioned that supply at Sikhalin Island is good. Shikuka has 1.9 million and can stand for a long time, if things do get dicey. But if things stay quiet, perhaps "dicey" won't be an issue.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Eventually I'll take all of them (or most of them).

I should've also mentioned that supply at Sikhalin Island is good. Shikuka has 1.9 million and can stand for a long time, if things do get dicey. But if things stay quiet, perhaps "dicey" won't be an issue.

To paraphrase notable economist John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, we are all dead." Eventually, the game will be over and you will have won or lost on points. What is your contemporary time frame for capturing all or most of the kuriles to buttress your position on Sakhalin?

[Canoerebel]

No time frame yet, but operations will commence soon after repairs are complete for the three carriers that require about 60 more days in the yards.

[Chickenboy]

Paramushiro appears well defended-based upon your SigInt. Would you take that proverbial bull by the horns or would you opt for another less well-defended Kurile island for your initial toehold?

[Canoerebel]

I'm likely to take the bull by the horns. I'll probably take on each of the islands in sequence. He's reinforcing, and I'm paying attention. I won't get bogged down if there's better options elsewhere. But if he's reinforcing with a mixed brigade here and there, where I have three or four divisions fully prepped, I'll take it on - assuming I have control of the seas or otherwise feel secure.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Paramushiro appears well defended-based upon your SigInt. Would you take that proverbial bull by the horns or would you opt for another less well-defended Kurile island for your initial toehold?

PJ and its weak fortress can be bypassed and neutralized fairly easily, if it looks too strong.

[Canoerebel]

Per SigInt and other indications, Eric is moving troops around. He has a lot of troops, AA and base forces coming to Japan (undoubtedly to handle security in the north) and is then moving some of these to reinforce the Kuriles. By the time Death Star is able to resume activity, the Kuriles will be much more strongly defended - IE, big airfields. But there's not much I can do to hamper his activities - I prefer to use my air force for strategic bombing and defense rather than what might be a difficult or impossible effort to suppress airfield building.

The other wave of reinforcements seems bound for China/Indochina. These may be coming from New Guinea and other points forward. I don't mind this, partly because I'll need to move into the DEI at some point to get base points. I'd rather do that on the cheap, if possible.

Erik still has a stout army in Burma and I'm not messing with it at the moment. I prefer to have his army as far forward as possible. Eventually, as in the game with John, things will happen that should make a forward deployment disadvantageous for him.

We started the game in March 1944. The Allies invaded the Kuriles/Sihalin in June and somehow managed to succeed at small cost. I'd expected Erik to then attack the high ground - he did briefly but has since stopped. Since my defenses are a bit tenuous at the moment, that suits me at present. So, for now, I'm focused on employing strategic bombing against the Home Islands and Asian mainland while prepping for future targets and getting the navy back in shape for future ops.

It's going to be a long and weird war, I think. I don't expect a quick victory. I don't necessarily expect victory, in the sense of the enemy succumbing before the historic date. There's still a chance of that, but a lot of time and fighting must transpire before I know what's really feasible and what isn't.

[Canoerebel]

7/17/44

Raid on Ominato: Very successful raid on Ominato by Allied 4EB. This included some B-24s that hit the airfield at night; next came large morning sweeps by Allied fighters (scoring at roughly 2:1), followed by two large and well-escorted B-24 and B-29 strikes against the airfield.

Erik had plenty of fighters present (about 140, I think) and had about 600 bombers on the ground. I'd been hitting industrial targets to the south at night for the past few turns and hadn't ever ordered an airfield raid.

This is a good one to remember when future raids don't turn out well - when the bombers go in before the fighters, ect.

[Canoerebel]

For the most part, Allied fighters have been devoted to CAP over Shikuka, so this was a departure from my SOP. I can't do this often, because Erik could clobber the ships at Shikuka if he timed his own riad right.

[Lokasenna]

Wowza. That's a very good raid result. Looks like he doesn't have great radar there - only 19 minutes of warning, and that second one really pounded him. I know Ominato can go to AF9, but is it? Even if so, more planes = more risk for him, regardless of the lack of overstacking.

[JeffroK]

At some point the JFB must learn a similar lesson to one the AFB learns.

1942 - The AFB learns he cant sail his TF in range of NETTY

1944 - The JFB must learn he isnt safe within range of B24 & 29.

[Chickenboy]

Ai! Chihuahua! What a thumping! [X(]

[Canoerebel]

7/19/44

Raid on Ominato: Erik loaded up the airfield with lots of good fighters; Allied sweepers came in first; and then escorted bombers came in, mostly targeting the port. The sweeps were a 1:1 affair but did enough to allow the bombers to hit hard:

Morning Air attack on Ominato , at 119,54
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 10
A6M8 Zero x 26
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11
Ki-84a Frank x 28
Ki-100-I Tony x 32

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 17
P-38J Lightning x 18
P-51B Mustang x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-38J Lightning: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CMc Enoshima, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yokae Maru, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Okuyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Ninoshima, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Toshima, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
ACM Zuiko Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
CMc Washizaki, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SC CHa-32, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yahonui Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS RO-37, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Toshi Maru #5, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Tasei Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ML G-209, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-61, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Chiyo Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk

[Canoerebel]

Like all you gents, I've found learning this game an evolutionary process. Sometimes things I thought were aren't and vice versa. And there are a zillion variations of every rule or principle, gradations of every kind, and luck, skill, experience, weather and dice rolls added to the mix.

One thing I've claimed to know is that escorting fighters just get eaten alive. And they do, most of the time. But under the right circumstances, escorts play a key role and don't get chewed alive, even against strong CAP. The "right circumstance" seems to be sweeps going in first to fatigue or reduce the CAP; then the escorts can handle what's left, reducing bomber losses appreciably. So it may be possible to orchestrate a large strike against a heavily defended enemy airfield....but if the bombers go in before the sweepers, uh oh.

Sweeps aren't usually involved in carrier clashes, so we usually see escorting fighters (on both sides) get eaten alive. It's worth it to us as it allows some of the bombers to get through, but the losses are immense. I'm not sure if there's a way to help out the fighters in that environment.

[BBfanboy]

I have heard that:
- setting escorting fighters to the same altitude as the bombers gives best chance of coordination but ...
- you can set a difference of up to 5000 feet between escorts and bombers

I haven't looked at this closely enough to say one way or the other but it would seem to me that escorts a bit higher than the bombers have a better chance to beat "the bounce" and dogfight?

[Canoerebel]

I usually set my escorting fighters to 2k to 6k above the bombers, occasionally higher but mostly 2k to 4k.

I didn't know about the "5k" limit that you mention. I haven't noticed any coordination issues but I don't have enough experience to really know - IE, while watching replays, I often miss things I should notice, due to my inexperience.

When I issue orders to escorting fighter squadrons, I give them orders to target the base the bombers are scheduled to hit. Probably most of you guys do the same.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/19/44

Raid on Ominato: Erik loaded up the airfield with lots of good fighters; Allied sweepers came in first; and then escorted bombers came in, mostly targeting the port. The sweeps were a 1:1 affair but did enough to allow the bombers to hit hard:

Morning Air attack on Ominato , at 119,54
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 10
A6M8 Zero x 26
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11
Ki-84a Frank x 28
Ki-100-I Tony x 32

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 17
P-38J Lightning x 18
P-51B Mustang x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-38J Lightning: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CMc Enoshima, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yokae Maru, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Okuyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Ninoshima, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Toshima, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
ACM Zuiko Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
CMc Washizaki, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SC CHa-32, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yahonui Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS RO-37, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Toshi Maru #5, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Tasei Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ML G-209, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-61, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Chiyo Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk

This looks as though this is more of that self-LRCAP bit as you experienced on Sakhalin a few turns ago. With this number of combatants and a 25 minute notice, this should have been a massive dogfight with serious losses on both sides.

I'm glad you smashed up his port facility but good with that raid. If he wants to try to bend the engine to interfere with realistic air model outcomes, I hope you extract the full measure from your targets.

[Canoerebel]

There were lots of sweeps preceding the bombers, and they all appeared normal in terms of intensity and longevity. So I think the sweepers cleared the way for the escorted bombers. I didn't get the impression that my raid suffered from the same handicaps that Erik's raids vs. Shikuka have.

And that's in the back of my mind: what if I've unintentionally created an environment in which Erik is handicapped but I'm not? What if my big base is relatively "immune" from his attacks, while his bases are open to my attacks?

I'm not sure that's the case yet. Erik is gamely fighting on, trying different things and not making any comments or complaints. But I'm still concerned that I've unintentionally nerfed the game.

[witpqs]

Big base = concentrated CAP.

Many bases to cover without knowing which base will be targeted next = spread out CAP.

Sounds normal to me. How do you think you nerfed something?