An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically

[rkr1958]

Just got back from my walk and checked the mail. Found that the latest issue of, "WWII HISTORY" came. Check out the article title in blue near the bottom of the cover, "Italian Invasion of France". Now tell me that isn't apropos. [8D]

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Introduction.

By MWiF standards this was a short turn, 2 impulses per side. And, I think I’ve heard Brian Brian (or maybe it was someone else) refer to the Jan/Feb 1940 turn as the most boring turn of the game. Not this turn, not for me trying to play out history. Not only was this turn the most fun Jan/Feb 1940 turn I’ve ever played, but I’d have to rank in the top five of all the turns (of MWiF) I’ve ever played. To put that in perspective I’d estimate that I’ve player over 350 turns, or 2500 impulses, of MWiF.

What made this short turn so fun and exciting for me was that I did feel history come alive. Not alive in the sense that specific battles and their historical outcomes were achieved as they were, but in the sense that at a macro level I was seeing history unfold though the lens of MWiF.

Now will this historical euphoria continue as I progress through this AAR or will I be derailed? I just don’t know. But what I do know is that I really appreciate Centurr pushing me to fight out the winter war instead of Finland (i.e., Germany) giving into the Soviet demands.

This turn includes a brief but fierce winter war between the smaller and better prepared Finnish army defending against the ill prepared and much larger Red Army. And at sea, the RN sorties significant forces from it’s Home and Atlantic to address German surface raiders roaming free in the North Atlantic. And, if that’s not bad enough, the RN Home Fleet is sortied to address a mixed German force of surface raiders and u-boats in the Faeroes gap and to reinforce the RN and French forces in the North Sea to continue their (attempted) blockade of the German navy at Kiel.

As a teaser, a force of two battleships and two heavy cruisers from the Mediterranean fleet based in Malta sorties to the Faeroes Gap to provide needed protection of convoys against the German surface raiders operating there. The teaser, the HMS Warspite was the flagship of this force.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Summary.

1. Deleted trade. With the closing of the Burma road (by the Japanese), the USA stops the trade of the Philippine RP to China.
2. New trade. With passing of USE option 16, the USA sends 4 oil to the CW for storage in Canada. President Roosevelt was able to get this through Congress in a bi-partisan bill known as, “The North America Strategic Oil Reserve”.
Initiative. Axis 1+1=2, allies 3. The axis elect not to re-roll wishing to keep the +1 on the initiative track. The allies, with the initiative, elect to move second.

North Sea, Faeroes Gap and Atlantic
3. The Germans fly their NAV3 to the 3-box of the North Sea. With no German air (with air-to-sea) or SCS’s that began this impulse in the North Sea, this move will not negate the -1 for “in the presence of the enemy” this impulse but will next impulse if still there.
4. The German battleship Scharnhorst, heavy cruiser Blucher and light cruiser Nurnberg move out from Kiel with the intention of passing through the Faeroes Gap into the North Atlantic and raiding convoys there. The RN and French ships, consisting of several battleships and heavy cruisers, operating in the (3-box) of the North Sea attempt intercept and manage a roll of 3. However, with “snow” in the sea area, the roll of 3 is one too high to successfully intercept. The 3 German surface raiders manage to run the blockade and make it to the 2-box of the North Atlantic for the surface raider. As a matter of note, no allied patrols were currently operating in the Faeroes Gap, so once past the North Sea it was clear sailing to the North Atlantic. Also, as a reminder, the heavy cruiser Admiral Hipper and light cruiser Koin remained at sea last turn along with a u-boat flotilla in the 2-box of the Faeroes Gap.
3. The German surface raiders attempt to find the 10 lone CW CP’s operating in the North Atlantic. However, with search a roll of 8 the German surface raiders are lucky they even found the North Atlantic. The allies rolled a 1 but with only CP’s in the area their search roll is irrelevant with the axis not finding. However, if they had, then the roll of 1 would have greatly limited axis surprise points and convoys sunk/aborted.
4. In the Faroes Gap, the mixed German force (CA, CL & u-boat) attempt to initiate combat against the lone CP. The RAF reacts a squadron of Harrows to the 0-box. The axis search roll is a 10 (allies 9). The Germans again fail to find.
5. In the North Sea, the Germans elect to attempt combat with the NAV in the 3-box. The first round has both the axis and allies rolling a 3. Only the axis find, but have 0 surprise points. Allied AA reduces bombs from 2 to 1 and produces an expected result of only A. The Germans target the battleship Renow with the A, however, the Renow passes the roll and remains. Both sides stay and round 2 sees searches of axis 5, allies 2. Only the allies find, however with only 2 surprise points they’re unable to avoid combat. They use their 2 SP’s to increase AA to the minimum of 4 and roll 7,7,4 …… 1 (dang!). German bombs are again reduced to 1 and have an expected result of A. The Germans (again) target the Renow, which again makes the roll and stays. Both sides remain but both searches miss and this bloodless battle is over.
6. The RN Home, Atlantic and Med fleets sortie in numbers to meet the German surface raider, sub and air threats in the North Atlantic, Faeroes Gap, North Sea. These fleets also have to maintain their requirement from escorting convoys in execution of their vital mission of protecting Britain’s convoys and routes. After the RN finishes sending out their ships and escorts, it was discovered that the RN convoy escorts in Cape Verde were 1 CL (i.e.,two DD’s) short. The French navy, in a one off, was gracious enough to provide the needed two DD’s (i.e., 1 CL).
7. In the North Sea, the RAF sends a long range Blenheim squadron out to the 4-box along with the fleet carrier Furious escorted by the battleship Repulse and 5 heavy and light cruisers. The CVL Hermes and a few of the older RN battleships (i.e., 4-movers) are sent to the 3-box and link up with the RN and French forces already operating there.
8. In the Faeroes Gap, a force led by the battleship Warspite, sorties from Malta to the 0-box and meets up with the squadron of Harrow already on patrol there to provide defense of the lone, but vital CP. A CP that’s required to maintain supply to the Home Fleet based in Scapa Flow. From the Home fleet, the Ark Royal escorted by 6 heavy and light cruisers move to the 4-box. And a mixed RN and French force centered around the CVL Argus moves into the 3-box. With the stage set the RN and French navies go about the task of trying to find and sink the German raiders, subs and aircraft. Point of fact, shooting an aircraft at sea will, in my estimation, as sink it. [:)]

[rkr1958]

The Battle of the North Atlantic (and it’s not u-boats)
(1) (impulse 3). Allied forces attempt to initiate. Searches, allies 5, axis 5. Neither finds.
(2) (impulse 5). Again, the allied force attempts to initiate. Searches, allies 5, axis 10. Neither finds.
(3) The turn ends with no contact between the RN and German navies. The RN keeps ships at sea moving down from the 3 to the 2-box, which they can even with the surprise threat of a neutral Italy because of the presence of German units. The Germans keep their three surface raiders at sea, moving them down to the 2-box.
(4) Over the objections of Admiral Raeder, Hitler refuses to allow the KM to send out a tanker to meet up with these raiders and refuel them. While the two cruisers were, and remain organized, the battleship Scharnhorst was, and remains disorganized. The message is clear, at least from Adolf, find the allied convoys and sink them or don’t bother coming back. Such a clavier attitude for what the Reich has invested in those three ships.
(5) I must say that while neither force found the other in three attempts (1 by the Germans and 2 by the allies), that the action was fun and tense. I can’t wait to see what next turn brings. Though, the prospects for naval clashes this turn isn’t over with two more sea areas (Faeroes Gap and North Sea) yet to be resolved. Well, actually they’ve already been resolved, but not reported on yet. [:D]

[rkr1958]

The Battle of the Faeroes Gap.
(1) The combined RN and French force attempts to initiate naval combat (impulse 3). The German u-boat flotilla does not commit (i.e., dives deep and remains hidden). Searches, allies 2, axis 3. Only the allies find. Though with the advantage to force a naval air battle with two carriers (CV Ark Royal and CVL Argus), the “black shoes” Admiral aboard the allied ships order the fleet to move in on the Germans with guns a blazing. The allies have 2 surprise points, which they use to increase the expected damage against the Germans to X, D & 2A. The expected damage to the allies is D, A. In fairness to both the CW and French it’s been decided to roll a 1D10 to determine which side takes the first hit (odd=RN, even=French). Furthermore, if the first allied ship selected fails the roll and is damaged, then it will take the second roll (i.e., expected A). However, if the first ship passes the roll and is only aborted then the other ally will choose one of their ships for the potential A.
(2) The allied shells hit home. The light cruiser Koln is sunk and the heavy cruiser Admiral Hipper is damaged and forced to abort. In exchange, the first KM hit is on a French light cruiser, which manages to pass it’s roll and is only aborted. The next roll is on an RN light cruiser which fails it roll and is also aborted. Both sides stay, but the Germans (again) don’t commit their u-boat flotilla. The naval action in the Faeroes Gap comes to an end.
(3) The crippled Admiral Hipper is forced to return to base through the heavily patrolled North Sea. The allies attempt to intercept but miss. The damaged Admiral Hipper limps into Kiel and immediately is put in dry dock.

[rkr1958]

The Battle of the North Sea.
(1) (impulse 3). The RN/French attempt to initiate against the one German NAV in the 3-box. The RAF reacts two fighter squadrons (FTR2), both flown in to the 1-box. Search rolls, allies 6, Germans 2. Only the German NAV finds. The Germans isolate the 1-box which gives them more than the 4 surprise points they need to end combat. They do and the NAV aborts from the area in order to live to fight another day.
(2) While three rounds of combat were fought in the North Sea, none of them drew any blood.
(3) During the stay at sea phase a pervious error is made by the RN. The battleship Repulse along with four cruisers were order to stay at sea (and move down to the 3-box). However, this force apparently didn’t receive the order so return to base with all other RN and RAF forces operating in the North Sea, leaving the two French BB’s and one CLV on patrol there. (In full disclosure I will finish this turn very late last night, really early this morning, and just forgot to set these forces to stay out sea.)
(4) Also, I forget to mention the port strike (impulse 7). The RN Nimrod and Swordfish squadrons struck the German naval forces at Kiel. The surprise rolls were, Axis 2, allies 7, which gave Germany 6 surprise points. They used 4 SP's to avoid combat. This makes a total of four bloodless exchanges this turn between the RN/French and the Germans.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. End of Turn.

What failure of command looks like afterwards in the North Sea.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. The Battle of the Faerores Gap.

A bit out of order, but better late than never I hope. [:)]

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Cape Verde Basin.

Working out the details of joint naval operations, convoy and transport escorts.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Finnish Borderlands. Winter War.

(1) The allies elect to have the axis move first this turn. The weather improves from blizzards in the Arctic and storms in the north temperate to snow in both. The allies, especially the Soviets who will now have to demand the Finnish borderlands given the improving weather have a bit of regret in not electing to move first. But hindsight is 20/20. If the weather had been blizzard or storms in the Arctic, then the Soviet demand of the Finnish borderlands would have had to wait with grudging consent from Stalin. However, with snow and the ability of planes to fly, there’s no more putting Stalin off. It’s either demand the borderlands, and risk war or be shot. The Red Army senior commanders and political commissars choose the former.
(2) (impulse 3). The USSR demands the Finnish borderlands. Germany refuses. The Soviets immediately declare war on Finland. The USE impact for this is a -1.8. That is, 1 chit is removed with an 80% chance of a second being removed too. Because of the decision that Germany will not invaded Norway, which would have an USE impact of +3, it was decided to add three to the USE roll for this event. So die rolls were sent in the interface form. However, instead of adding 3 to the roll produced by the game and shown in the form, I had decided before hand to manually roll a 1D10 and add 3 to that result. Imagine my frustration as the allies when I saw that the game had rolled a 10 meaning only 1 chit would have been lost from the US Germany/Italy entry pool. (Some house keeping here, MWiF for this form will only allow entries between 1 and 10. So, anything 7 and above will be entered as a 10). Back to the USE roll for this second chit. The Soviets (manually) roll a 4, which when 3 is added produces a 7. A second US chit is removed. In the matter of resolving rolls, even when one is playing one’s self, honesty demands one sticks with what one agreed to before hand for resolving them, not to mention living with the result of the rolls themselves.
(3) The USSR and Finland are at war.

[rkr1958]

(4) After much Soviet strategizing, it’s decided by STAVKA to (surprise) ground strike the three stack Finnish defenders directly northwest of Leningrad with everything they can/have throw at them. Out of 22 rolls (i.e., chances to disorganize) the Soviets manage only to disorganize the Finnish ski division. Not a very glorious start to the Soviet invasion of Finland.
(5) Failure of the Red Air force to disorganize the three Finnish defenders adjacent to Leningrad, means that the Soviets are only able to achieve odds less than 0 on the Blitz table on this stack. This gives an approximate 10 to 15% chance of victory (i.e., capturing the hex); however, the odds of killing any of the three defenders is very low and the risk of disorganizing all the (surviving) attackers and losing the Soviet mech army is very high. So no go for this attack and in future impulses because these odds will go down even more of the availability of Finnish defensive air support (which can’t fly this during surprise) and HQ support assuming that Mannerheim moves to Viipuri and adjacent to the stack. With this grim outlook of being able to force their way into Finland this way, Timoshen decides to lead what forces he can on a flanking move around the eastern shores of Lake Ladoga.
(6) Above the artic circle near Murmansk two Soviet armies and the 4th infantry division move adjacent to Petsamo. Taking this city would force an end to this war; however, the best odds these armies can muster is -0.667 (assault). With only 1 defender this gives the Red Army a 17% chance of victory. However, there’s a 25% that all three attackers would be eliminated leaving Murmansk wide open for the Finnish unit just to walk in and claim.

[rkr1958]

(7) (impulse 5). The Germans take a combine, which allow the Finnish navy to move their two old battleships out to the 3-box of the Baltic Sea. This not only add to the defense of Finnish units on the coast if the weather happened to clear to rain but also provides a significant counter to any moves the Red Navy might attempt in the Baltic in such weather.
(8) (impulse 7). The Soviets rail another infantry army to Murmansk, which will allow the Soviets to make their high risk, but high gain, attack on Petsamo; and thus hopefully put an end to this war. On the eastern and northern shores of Lake Lodoga, Timoshen continues to lead what forces he can on his flanking maneuver manages to break into the Finnish borderlands and into Finland proper itself.
(9) Two Soviet armies and the 4th infantry division assault Petsamo. Though the hover over showed -0.667 odds, which would give a 17% chance of victory, MWiF without the benefit of a fractional roll moved the odds to -1, reducing the chance of victory slightly to 15%. No matter, the assaulting Soviet forces roll a 5 and are completely wiped out making the decision to wait until a Murmansk could be secured just that much more vital.

[rkr1958]

(10) The turn ends shortly after this attack. Even with the massive casualties being inflicted on the Soviets by the smaller Finnish army, the Finns are concerned about Timoshen’s flanking forces which are now in position to run freely through central Finland and even turn south threaten to cut off Mannerheim and the bulk of the Finnish army.
(11) While Adolf is enjoying the losses that the Finns are inflicting on the Soviets, and the embarrassment that the Winter War is causing the internationality community, he’s not happy about losing the RP at Petasmo, which is cutoff due to Soviet control.
(12) So the Finns approach the Soviets in hopes of an armistice. The Soviets wishing to put an end to this fiasco are more than willing to agree to one. The problem is that the Soviets control hexes inside of Finland and outside of the Finnish borderlands. What is one to do? [;)]

[rkr1958]

(13) It's times like this where it's handy to be able to edit the game file.
(14) Soviet forces inside of Finland but outside of the borderlands are "pulled" back.
(15) Control of the two Finnish hexes outside of the borderland but controlled by the USSR are "given" back to Finland.
(16) Germany is given the option to enforce the peace and choose to do so.

[rkr1958]

(17) Finland is returned to the status of a neutral. It's forces are put back into the appropriate force pools. And the Soviet Union if given control of the Finnish borderlands.
(18) The Winter War is over but not without cost to the Soviets. 1 corps, 1 garrison and 1 division lost, or the equivalent of 7 BP's.
(19) I must say I'm glad Centuur kept pushing me to fight this one out. It was most enjoyable and felt very historical.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. US Entry Pool.

With two chits removed from the German/Italy entry pool, leaving just 1, the US chose to put this turn's chit in that pool. The US then selected option 4, "Intern French aircraft carrier", which would allow a chit in the Japanese entry pool to be moved if the tension roll failed. It didn't and no chits were moved. The US opted not to go for another option.

Also, the US chose to convert the French carrier to a transport.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Destroyed & Repair Pools.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Democracies Production.

Despite the best German efforts otherwise, the Democracies were able to keep their convoys protected and their factories humming.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Economic Report.

[rkr1958]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Germany.