Argentina vs. USA: Aurorus (J) vs. Apbarog (A)

[Aurorus]

For a few days, I was receiving "heavy radio traffic" from Pearl Harbor. This is not unusual, as large cargo and TK TFs move through Pearl often. Today, however, I receive reports that an allied radio operator broke radio silence in Centpac and that there was a heavy volume of radio traffic west, northwest of Johnston Island. What would be in Centpac, west of Johnston Island producing a heavy volume of radio traffic? A large group of Freighters? I think not.

[Aurorus]

The 3 CVEs were en route to SoPac and are 2 days from Truk. The A6M2s from 2 of the CVEs have flown ahead of them to Kusaie Island. 42 Tojo IIas were in the process of transferring down to SoPac from Korea. They are now at Saipan. Every free air asset, not being used at New Caledonia and Luganville, is en route to the Marshalls. The Marshalls is not the abandoned frontier that it was 3 months ago. I have not completely reinforced the area, but there are basic support units and garrisons in place. The 24th Air Fleet, with torpedo capability, is at Kusaie Island, which is now a size 4 airfield and size 3 port. Tomorrow there will be 72 Ki-43s, 67 A6M2s, 48 Vals, and 45 Betties in the theater. The day after 42 Tojos will join them. If that is indeed US CVs in Centpac, they will walk into a nasty trap.

[adarbrauner]

Nice SIGINT warning!

Something is working sometimes within the Japanese Navy!

But Kusaie is far from southern and Central Marshalls, if this is indeed the target....

And , in any case, if there is there a carrier group, what the Betties could do more than acting as flaming fireflies?

[DanSez]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus

... I have no idea what caused both these TFs to move at full speed. Any ideas?

The only thing I can think of is the local command decision based on Air Cover/Threat so speed was increased to remove or reduce the threat calculation in pathing the move.

pure conjecture on my part:
Lot of voodoo going on under the hood exemplified in carrier task force command decisions. I would think there would be a few similar pathing codes for all the other types of task forces. Getting Bombardment TFs to do exactly what I want is conditional on factors I may not be aware of.

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Nice SIGINT warning!

Something is working sometimes within the Japanese Navy!

But Kusaie is far from southern and Central Marshalls, if this is indeed the target....

And , in any case, if there is there a carrier group, what the Betties could do more than acting as flaming fireflies?

The purpose of the air HQ and Betties at Kusaie is not so much to hit CVs as to attack any amphibious group that tries to land on the Marshalls. Hitting them in the daylight phase and causing a few fires on APAs or sinking some APAs is a very good way to cause an atoll invasion to fail. At this point, however, forts on the Marshalls are only at 3 or 4, and each atoll is not at the stacking limit. There are some additional units that I want to use to reinforce the theater, so if he does try a landing, it may succeed. I would welcome a battle in the Marshalls at this point, far from allied ports and close to IJN bases, supply, and air.

I suspect more a raid than an invasion. I will probably not use the Betties here for anything but naval search, unless there is an amphibious group. Instead, I will use the Ki-43s to set a CAP trap over Kwajalein. I will base 60 A6M2s and 48 Vals at Maloelap to try to strike the CVs if this is a mere raid. Oscar Ics are not ideal for a CAP trap, but that is all that I have available at the moment. If I can bring the Tojos in theater before the raid, those F4Fs will take a very bad beating. All the pilots in the Tojo squadron have 75+ experience, and my 20 available IJA Tracom pilots are split between that squadron and the Ki-45s at Koumac. The other TRACOM eligible IJA pilots are in training squadrons.

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: DanSez

ORIGINAL: Aurorus

... I have no idea what caused both these TFs to move at full speed. Any ideas?

The only thing I can think of is the local command decision based on Air Cover/Threat so speed was increased to remove or reduce the threat calculation in pathing the move.

pure conjecture on my part:
Lot of voodoo going on under the hood exemplified in carrier task force command decisions. I would think there would be a few similar pathing codes for all the other types of task forces. Getting Bombardment TFs to do exactly what I want is conditional on factors I may not be aware of.

Yes. There is an "air-superiority" check in theaters that affects how TFs move and respond to threats. In theaters where the enemy has air-superiority, TFs often behave in unexpected ways. I have found that,i n the case of bombardment TFs in theaters where the enemy has air superiority, commanders with aggression below 70 often pause or hesitate to move to their target, which can cause major problems, especially if you have planned fighter cover near the base where you expect them to withdraw after bombarding.

Both Asakura and Tanaka are very aggressive (85 and 91) respectively and I am certain that I have air superiority in the theater, given that I have 7 fleet CVs, 2 CVLs, and 200 LBA fighters here, so they may have been reacting to a threat that they perceived that did not appear (such as the CL TF) and merely failed to engage it, because I had no DL. Asakura made a similar move in my game against Opilot, changing to full speed in the night impulse to engage a CA TF 6 hexes away. In that case, however, I had very good DL on that TF and Asakura had a reaction range of 6 and was moving to cover one of my bases where I suspected that TF was moving. The allied TF did move to that base, and Asakura was waiting for them. His TF performed poorly in that engagement, however, losing 2 CLs to 1 allied CA and 2 CLs (though he had a far superior TF: 4 BBs and 2 CLs against 2 CAs and 3 CLs).

[adarbrauner]

and how can possibly be calculated local air superiority by the game?

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

and how can possibly be calculated local air superiority by the game?

I have no idea how the game calculates this and how the theaters or regions are divided, but it does. It is part of the sequence of play, and you will see the notification that the game is "calculating air superiority" every turn during the combat replay.

[adarbrauner]

That's right...

[Aurorus]

The game is suspended for a short time. Apbarog is hosting a party at his home this weekend for a baseball league draft, and I will be meeting my mother in Cordoba and traveling with her until Tuesday of next week. This is not an opportune time to leave off the game and hurry a turn before leaving. There is so much activity. I am landing 2 more SNLFs and a construction battalion at Hoorn Islands. 2 JNAF aviation support units arrived at the base at the end of the last turn, but need to disembark. The CVs, Tanaka, a heavy CA TF, and Asakura are all nearby covering the operation. I have another aviation support unit and another construction battalion en route.

If the radio traffic in Centpac (which I intercepted up again the day after the initial signal) is indeed the U.S. CVs, I have 36 DBs and 70 A6M2s at Maloekap set to naval strike and 78 Oscar Ics flying CAP over Kwajalein and Roi Namur. However, I now have this troubling piece of information. Some predator is frightening my small transport groups moving to Hoorn Island in the area around the Ellice Islands. I have AOs and other vulnerable and important assets (such as the 26th Air Flotilla moving toward Luganville behind Ndeni as well. With my air force divided between the Marshalls and New Caledonia, I have nothing to attack shipping in this region, except a small SCTF with 2 heavy CAs at Luganville.

What is in the area around the Ellice Islands that is causing my TFs to take such a convoluted route to Hoorn Islands?

[SeethingErmine]

Could the Leander and co still be lurking in the area? Or perhaps merely the fear of them is affecting the TF commanders. [:)] I wonder if there was something big backing up the CLs that was never spotted, and is on the move again trying to coordinate with the Marshalls threat.

Really enjoying your AAR, tons of excellent technical gameplay/strategy information. [&o]

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus

The game is suspended for a short time. Apbarog is hosting a party at his home this weekend for a baseball league draft, and I will be meeting my mother in Cordoba and traveling with her until Tuesday of next week.

And Pesach at the door.

[DanSez]

Hope the game and the AAR resumes at some point.

[adarbrauner]

More interesting and compelling about Aurorus, what happened to him...