Notes from a Small Island

[John 3rd]

He will FIGHT! Let me speak to the coward...

The Code of Bushido shall be read to him.

[Canoerebel]

He's been fighting hard and he's setting up a strong inner defense that's going to give me fits. The one helpful aspect is that I don't have to fight at 1:1 (or somesuch) to gain ground in CenPac, SWPac, etc. I prefer to wait until the odds are more favorable, but in the meantime have been able to pick up things on the cheap - things that aren't critical but ultimately would be necessary to effectively constrict Japan.

[Canoerebel]

8/2/44

832 Squadron FAA: This torpedo squadron arrived yesterday with no pilots and no planes. I loaded it with recruits but didn't draw aircraft, due to the small pool. A lot of training accomplished in one day of training, despite the lack of planes.

[Bif1961]

Must have been ground school.

[Canoerebel]

8/2/44

SigInt: The second time I've gotten an enemy carrier report in the past three or four days.

[Canoerebel]

8/2/44

Ops Report: Erik probably didn't foresee this byproduct of abandoning Prome - it allows Allied units forward to upgrade.

When I stepped in effective March 1, 1944, most of the Allied units in Burma still had start-of-war squads, including combat squads. Many of those units cycled through Akyab and Ramree Island to upgrade, with mixed results. But now they're beginning to flesh out with up-to-date stuff.

[Canoerebel]

8/2/44

Intel Screen: The Allies trail by 17,000 points, 54k to 37k.

In my game with John III, the Allies drew even on this date. It then took me another 8+ months to achieve auto victory.

I don't have any particular target date for victory in this game since the Allies haven't come close to achieving the position or force reduction sufficiently to make prognostications. In all likelihood, this game will go into 1946.

And yet, I think there's a chance for the Allies to do better. This is a Scenario One game, which should help a bit. And the Allied hold on Sikhalin Island may prove decisive later, depending on how the looming naval campaigns turn out.

And I think I'm better prepared to play the late game, both from a more knowledgeable application of force and reducing the number of disadvantageous battles (using 4EB improvidently and accepting lower odds ground battles).

But all of this is academic if the Allies don't take control of the Kuriles, which in all likelihood will require a very tough carrier battle or campaign.

[Canoerebel]

8/3/44

Pilot Training: The raw recruits of this FAA torpedo squadron continue to train without aircraft. They're gaining skill each day but not experience. So my working hypothesis is that lack of aircraft doesn't effect skills training but may effect experience. That, of course, is an issue. But I'll leave the squadron as is for a few more weeks to see if hypothesis becomes theory becomes certainty.

[Canoerebel]

8/4/44

Air War: To this point, the routine air war has been mostly a 1:1 affair, or perhaps a bit in favor of the Allies. Allied 4EB targeted industry in the Home Islands and the mainland for six weeks or more. Erik has dispersed his fighters effectively, so I stood my bombers down for a solid week to rest them. The B-24s have resumed ops, occasionally targeting Kuriles bases to suppress fort and airfield building. Today's raid targeted Shimishura Jima, with Corsairs getting the best of Georges.

The B-29s have stood down for more than a week. Many reinforcing squadrons have arrived and needed some rest, after the long flight from West Coast airfields.

Overall, the Allies have scored significantly better than 1:1, when including the Japanese aircraft destroyed in the big carrier clashes and destroyed on the ground at Ominato during that one very successful raid a few weeks back.

[Canoerebel]

8/4/44

Heavy Bomber Losses: For the most part, heavy bomber losses have been modest (at least in comparison to my game with John III).

About seven B-29s were lost in one raid last week. Since the replacement rate is a meager one per day, it's tough to make good any losses. Over the past three weeks, about ten 10-plan B-29s reinforcements squadrons have arrived. I'll try to use these judiciously so that the squadrons don't dwindle to nothing. That likely means just one or two raids per week.

The B-24J pools are in excellent shape, with something like 250 planes in the pool.

Joseph is responsible for the healthy condition of the Allied fighter and bomber pools. On the flip side, the air war was tepid, so Erik's pools are probably uber-flush.

[Canoerebel]

8/4/44

P-47D25 Pool: I've just entered the "dry interval" in which production of the Thunderbolt has ended. Compensating production of the F4U-1D and P-51D won't begin for several months. In the meantime, some Brit fighters have decent production numbers to help fill the gap. Production of the F4U-1A is pretty meager - I'm down to only about 20 in my pools.

But I've been judicious in using the -47D25, so the pool is flush with the fighter. This gives me a cushion until the dry interval ends.

I use the -47D25 offensively infrequently. I've found that it doesn't perform well in the sweep role, and to a slightly lesser extent the escort role. So I try to reserve them for CAP over key bases. For sweeps and escort missions, the F4U-1A is my workhouse, supplemented by Lightning-J and -L models (they have performed surprisingly well in this game and in my game with John III). I'm also using the P-51B offensively, but only have one squadron at Shikuka, my key Sikhalin Island airfield, at this point.

[Chickenboy]

With your B-24 pools in such good shape, have you thought about retiring your B-29s from the North theatre in order to build their numbers substantially? If you were able to gain a lodgement in the DEI, for example, having a robust cadre of B-29s to blast Singapore and Palembang from afar would be worth it.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I've just entered the "dry interval"

It's a little late to be making Lenten observations, isn't it?

[Canoerebel]

[X(]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
With your B-24 pools in such good shape, have you thought about retiring your B-29s from the North theatre in order to build their numbers substantially? If you were able to gain a lodgement in the DEI, for example, having a robust cadre of B-29s to blast Singapore and Palembang from afar would be worth it.

I still prefer to employ the B-29 in direct points production - targeting Home Island industry and airfields - rather than indirectly against possible DEI targets at some later date. Part of that is my own sense of "efficiency," but part is also a need to strike erratically, sometimes near, sometimes far, sometimes consecutively, sometimes a week apart, so that Erik (hopefully) feels its necessary to maintain good fighter defenses throughout the Home Islands and upper Asia.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I've just entered the "dry interval"

It's a little late to be making Lenten observations, isn't it?

As a lifelong teetotaler, CR can be dry whenever he wants, just like I can be "on vacation" every day!

[Canoerebel]

8/5/44

832 FAA Squadron Training: The trend continues - pilots training in this squadron, which has zero aircraft, continue to increase in skill and defense but not in experience. I'm satisfied that the hypothesis is now a theory. Tomorrow, I'm going to add a few aircraft to the squadron to see how that effects training, especially experience.

In war news, a PF squadron sank a roving sub south of Adak Island; B-24s with escorts and sweeps handled modest CAP at Onnekotan Jima in a small raid; and I'm watching in Burma, where there's a small chance that Erik might have a notion about breaking through a weakness in the Allied perimeter (but it's there for a purpose, as his troops would then be vulnerable to Allied 4EB attacks).

[Canoerebel]

8/12/44

Air Losses: Over the past week, Allied air doctrine has shifted radically, with Erik making changes in response.

Massed Allied fighters swept Kushiro one day and Sapporo several days later. Both sweeps faced hundreds of topnotch enemy fighters on CAP, with the Allies coming out on top by a solid 2:1.

Today, coinciding with the sweep of Sapporo, mostly second-tier Allied fighters swept Rangoon, which is also heavily defended. Here Allied losses were about 1:1, but alot of the losses were older models that are fairly expendable.

The two days of sweeps (separated by about four days) resulted in Japan loses 280 fighters and the Allies roughly 200.

The Corsair is my most valuable fighter. The pool is very low, so I'll have to monitor losses carefully. Today, I lost eight, which is manageable if the sweeps take place every few days.

I'll also have to monitor the Hellcat losses, because the pools for both models are just building and I'll soon need to swap out the FM-2 Wildcats on CVEs for Hellcats.

Ditto for P-38Ls - have to be careful.

But I am deep with P-47D25s, so I can afford to use them heavily.

The objective is to attrition good enemy fighters at a favorable rate, thus allowing B-29s to hit industrial targets against less opposition and, when the time comes, to dampen the impact of enemy LBA in a possible carrier battle.

Erik has lost alot of good fighters (but probably comparitively few pilots). Fighter numbers at Kushiro, Sapporo and Rangoon are down considerably, while he continues to maintain large fighter numbers at Yokohama, Tokyo, etc. Tomorrow, fresh first-tier squaadrons will target Sapporo again, while fresh second-tier righters hit Rangoon.

Allied B-24s and B-25s have been hitting enemy airfields in the Kuriles, to modest effect.

B-29s have stood down the past ten day or so. At the moment, I hope to unleash them when/if I'm able to clear Hokkaido airspace of serious fighter opposition (or reduce them to manageable numbers).

[Canoerebel]

8/13/44

Intel Screen: This tells story of the day's air-war results. Grim!

[Canoerebel]

8/13/44

Air Losses: But peeling away the onion provides a better understanding of what's going on:

1. About 2/3rds of the Allied losses are second-tier aircraft sweeping Rangoon. Of these, the various P-38 models and the older Thunderbolt perform acceptably, but the P-40s (I know now) cannot be used, even against an enemy tuckered and reduced by yesterday's battles.

2. Over at Hokkaido, first-tier Allied fighters scored very well, usually at 3:1 or better, though ops losses ended up reducing that to about 2:1. The enemy again suffered heavy first-tier fighter losses. But I can't sustain this number of F4U-1A losses, so I'm going to switch to see if the newer Thunderbolt is up to the job (usually it doesn't seem to do well sweeping).

Overall, in three sweeps of Kushiro and Sapporo, Erik has lost about 400 first-rate fighters. That's good work, or will be if the Thunderbolt performs well enough to continue these sweeping missions.

3. While the fighters did their thing, the B-24s whacked Ketoi Jima airfield hard. Ketoi and Uruppu Jima airfields are in pretty bad shape. Right now, Erik isn't offering opposition, as he doesn't want to lose valuable fighters and bombers where he isn't able to mass them. I'm trying to work an angle where that issue continues through the next carrier engagement, whenever that happens to be.