8MP Team Game - The Axis team

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Telemecus
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8MP Axis T18

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 18 22-October-1941 North

More mud

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RE: OKH - 8 player multiplayer Axis thread

Post by thedude357 »

Turn 18 Army Group South

Serious mud this turn isolating the southern half of Army Group South as the rail lines struggle to keep up. The German 41 offensive has certainly reached its culmination point until next year. German forces in the Crimea pull back slightly to avoid any disasters since they are isolated due to distance from rail and several Soviet divisions are adjacent to them.

An extremely small pocket is formed trapping 3 Soviet units north of Voronezh.

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8MP Axis T18

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 18 22-October-1941 Air

The Soviet Air Force makes a reappearance - or at least some U2VS do.

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ORIGINAL: Telemecus
ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Moscow is a good choice to evacuate them to!
That U-2VS airbase didn't get much in the way of Luftwaffe love this turn, so like an obstinate child, it will kick and scream (by bombing you) you until you do. You're going to do my job for me whether you want to or not. [:'(]
I want to - we have lots of arriving bomber boys who want the practice! Just ran out of airfield bombing miles this time. Ask the coders to extend the 33%! But I think this confirms you are in the U2-VS club!

Axis promise kept. Soviet promise not kept.
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8MP Axis T18

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 18 22-October-1941 Economic

Remarkably the interceptor factory evacuation continues. The Yak-1 factories at Engels and Saratov are evacuated.

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These factories faced no prospects whatsoever of being overun by ground forces in the near future - its evacuation is solely down to our air bombardment.

These factories expand to an eventual capacity of 25 each turn until they stop production in turn 68. If left unhindered the Engels factory would produce 1,465 Yak-1s and the Saratov factory, which had a slightly lower intial capacity, 1,444. We are unlikely to be able to cause further damage to the factory in its new location. The bombing damage together with its evacuation means we expect the Engels factory now in Nizhny Tagil to produce 963 and the Saratov factory now in Nizhny Tagil to only produce 909. This is a net loss of 1,037 Yak-1s. The Yak-1 factory at Tatischevo remains under bombardment with its capacity choked. While our Soviet opponents have prioritised the defence and evacuation of the LaGG-3 factories, presumably because they rate the LaGG3 as a better fighter, the vulnerability of the Yak-1 factories and the disproportionate losses to bombing perhaps means more priority should have been given to them.

The evacuation of these two factories actually increased their damage levels. If there had been no more bombing and no evacuation we expect the Engels factory would have produced 1,147 and the Saratov factory 1,053 or a total net loss of 709 Yak-1s. This is 328 less than will be the case. Implicitly the Soviets have told us they think our continued bombing would have destroyed 329 or more extra Yak-1s. The losses they have already had should tell them it would almost certainly have been much more. They left taking action here much too late. For all the goings on at Gorky it appears they missed the much bigger story at Saratov.


All our bombers continue to operate on repaired rail lines connected to the home rail network using staging bases to extend range. Vehicle conservation is important and for some is a reason to not use the air force at all. Although so far I have not seen it documented a staging base placed somewhere between a bomber base and the target will give a maximum range to target of one and a half times its radius. So our Heinkel bombers, which have a radius of 43 hexes, actually have a maximum range of 64 hexes to a target. Thus we square the circle of both using an air force and not losing vehicles for it.


It may be mud but our strategic bombing campaign continues along the Volga valley and into the West Caucasus.

With the evacuations we are down to only three fighter bomber factories in range. At Gorky the bombing of the hex with the LaGG-3 factory has to be shared with the bombing of the T34 factory

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At Stalingrad we continue to choke the expansion of the T34 factory and at South Stalingrad the T60 factory reaches 46% damage. This means at least another three turns of lost producion or an extra 144 T-60 that we know will never be built due to lost expansion.

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Which raises the question are we overbombing the T60 factory? Each turn the factory remains damaged we know with 100% probability another 48 tanks will not be built due to lost expansion, and with a probability equal to twice the damage rate it will not produce 2 tanks due to stopped production. The difference between 0% damage and 1 % damage is large, the extra between 1% and 50% is minor. When the Soviet team decide to evacuate the factory the damage will automatically reach 50% - meaning the closer damage already is to 50% the less extra pain they incur. If we actually get to 50% damage there is then no lost opportunity cost of tanks not produced at all, the only cost will be in rail capacity which for a 2 size tank factory is small and at a time when this is less of a constraint. If anything we want to make the choice hard and painful, or even dissuade them from evacuation so we retain the option of continued bombing. This would suggest the optimum damage level for the tank factory each turn is actually 1%, not close to 50%. The only advantage of getting damage levels of 4% or higher is that we "book in" future turns of damage while we can before Soviet defences improve or the weather makes it impossible.

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For the first time we add Kuybyshev to our bombing target list. As well as the damage to the vehicle factory we targeted we can see collateral damage to the manpower as well. With the Yak-1 factory at Saratov gone our bombers move on to the vehicle factory there too. This means, together with the vehicle factories at Murom and Yaroslavl, we have been attacking four vehicle factories.

Many thanks to those who gave me errors and corrections to my spreadsheets on Soviet production. In particular I know now when it says production stops in a particular month, there is still production in the first week of that month. These figures are with the new updated understanding - but previous posts are on the old and so may be up to one weeks production out. I will eventually get an updated spreadsheet into the library of WitE resources with these error fixes
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RE: 8MP Axis T18

Post by leverkuhn »

Amazing frontline reporting as usual, Telemecus [&o]
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RE: 8MP Axis T18

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 18 Allocations
For information only - team allocations for turn 18.
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8MP Axis T19

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 19 29-October-1941 North and Centre

lowsugar stepped down from the Northern command this turn, but we expect to be picking their brains for military advice as a member of the team still going forward. Stelteck will be covering North as well as their Centre command until the new commander arrives

Freak weather this turn - but thankfully not with the first blizzard penalties yet

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Pockets continue to be reduced. More elbow room is taken in front of Moscow. And Moscow itself finally falls.

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Meanwhile intensive reorganisation is occuring. Eye catching is the extension of Mannerheim's forces well to the south of the Finnish no move line. As well as many German infantry divisions serving under Finnish HQs, German corps HQs are now being assigned to Kannas army. 9th army is now part of AGN meaning AGC now has only 4 armies/panzer groups - so AGC now has a leader whose ratings are effective.

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(A worthwhile tip for those who do not know it - when reassigning between nations go through High commands first. For example here reassigning a unit first to OKH for one to three points, then from OKH to Finnish High Command for zero points, and then down from Finnish High Command for zero points is a points saver over doing it directly)
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 19 29-October-1941: The "EXPLANATION"
ORIGINAL: Stelteck
I think it would be better if AGN [lowsugar] and AG[S] [thedude357] commander keep control of their panzer group and forces and use them to rush to moscow on their own,...

The last commander to reach moscow will be summoned by the furher for "explanation".... [8|]

Well only one commander got to Moscow. And so the day of reckoning arrived with the team arriving to the Führerbunker to give their "explanation" - luckily it was captured on video.

Click on the photo below to link to the video - you should see the subtitles in English. If not you do need to switch them on to know what they are "really" saying.

Image
This is a joint production for Matrix Forums and Telenovela Channel

(Many thanks to guinea pigs, oops, beta testers who checked this out for me in advance!)
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by SparkleyTits »

Brilliant I was chuckling all the way through that! [:D]
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RE: 8MP Axis T18

Post by DeletedUser1769703214 »

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Turn 18 22-October-1941 Economic

Remarkably the interceptor factory evacuation continues. The Yak-1 factories at Engels and Saratov are evacuated.



These factories faced no prospects whatsoever of being overun by ground forces in the near future - its evacuation is solely down to our air bombardment.

These factories expand to an eventual capacity of 25 each turn until they stop production in turn 68. If left unhindered the Engels factory would produce 1,465 Yak-1s and the Saratov factory, which had a slightly lower intial capacity, 1,444. We are unlikely to be able to cause further damage to the factory in its new location. The bombing damage together with its evacuation means we expect the Engels factory now in Nizhny Tagil to produce 963 and the Saratov factory now in Nizhny Tagil to only produce 909. This is a net loss of 1,037 Yak-1s. The Yak-1 factory at Tatischevo remains under bombardment with its capacity choked. While our Soviet opponents have prioritised the defence and evacuation of the LaGG-3 factories, presumably because they rate the LaGG3 as a better fighter, the vulnerability of the Yak-1 factories and the disproportionate losses to bombing perhaps means more priority should have been given to them.

The evacuation of these two factories actually increased their damage levels. If there had been no more bombing and no evacuation we expect the Engels factory would have produced 1,147 and the Saratov factory 1,053 or a total net loss of 709 Yak-1s. This is 328 less than will be the case. Implicitly the Soviets have told us they think our continued bombing would have destroyed 329 or more extra Yak-1s. The losses they have already had should tell them it would almost certainly have been much more. They left taking action here much too late. For all the goings on at Gorky it appears they missed the much bigger story at Saratov.


All our bombers continue to operate on repaired rail lines connected to the home rail network using staging bases to extend range. Vehicle conservation is important and for some is a reason to not use the air force at all. Although so far I have not seen it documented a staging base placed somewhere between a bomber base and the target will give a maximum range to target of one and a half times its radius. So our Heinkel bombers, which have a radius of 43 hexes, actually have a maximum range of 64 hexes to a target. Thus we square the circle of both using an air force and not losing vehicles for it.


It may be mud but our strategic bombing campaign continues along the Volga valley and into the West Caucasus.

With the evacuations we are down to only three fighter bomber factories in range. At Gorky the bombing of the hex with the LaGG-3 factory has to be shared with the bombing of the T34 factory



At Stalingrad we continue to choke the expansion of the T34 factory and at South Stalingrad the T60 factory reaches 46% damage. This means at least another three turns of lost producion or an extra 144 T-60 that we know will never be built due to lost expansion.


Which raises the question are we overbombing the T60 factory? Each turn the factory remains damaged we know with 100% probability another 48 tanks will not be built due to lost expansion, and with a probability equal to twice the damage rate it will not produce 2 tanks due to stopped production. The difference between 0% damage and 1 % damage is large, the extra between 1% and 50% is minor. When the Soviet team decide to evacuate the factory the damage will automatically reach 50% - meaning the closer damage already is to 50% the less extra pain they incur. If we actually get to 50% damage there is then no lost opportunity cost of tanks not produced at all, the only cost will be in rail capacity which for a 2 size tank factory is small and at a time when this is less of a constraint. If anything we want to make the choice hard and painful, or even disuade them from evacuation so we retain the option of continued bombing. This would suggest the optimum damage level for the tank factory each turn is actually 1%, not close to 50%. The only advantage of getting damage levels of 4% or higher is that we "book in" future turns of damage while we can before Soviet defences improve or the weather makes it impossble.


For the first time we add Kuybyshev to our bombing target list. As well as the damage to the vehicle factory we targetted we can see collateral damage to the manpower as well. With the Yak-1 factory at Saratov gone our bombers move on to the vehicle factory there too. This means, together with the vehicle factories at Murom and Yaroslavl, we have been attacking four vehicle factories.

The Soviets have all the resources to stop the pain of the bombing. I am surprised this is continuing :(
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by DeletedUser1769703214 »

ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits

Brilliant I was chuckling all the way through that! [:D]

I have seen so many parodies using this now.
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by Telemecus »

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits
Brilliant I was chuckling all the way through that! [:D]
I have seen so many parodies using this now.
This one was screaming out to be done! A world war two wargame - what could be more obvious for the Downfall treatment! [:D]
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by DeletedUser1769703214 »

ORIGINAL: Telemecus
ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits
Brilliant I was chuckling all the way through that! [:D]
I have seen so many parodies using this now.
This one was screaming out to be done! A world war two wargame - what could be more obvious for the Downfall treatment! [:D]

Needed one with Stalin fuming off at the mouth ;-)
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by Zorch »

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: Telemecus
ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

I have seen so many parodies using this now.
This one was screaming out to be done! A world war two wargame - what could be more obvious for the Downfall treatment! [:D]

Needed one with Stalin fuming off at the mouth ;-)
All you need is a commander named 'Fegelein'. [&o]
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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 19 29-October-1941: The "REWARD"

Meanwhile Stelteck is very happy to hear he will be rewarded for his capture of Moscow - including an all expenses paid night out on the Berlin Cabaret!

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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by DeletedUser1769703214 »

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Turn 19 29-October-1941: The "REWARD"

Meanwhile Stelteck is very happy to hear he will be rewarded for his capture of Moscow - including an all expenses paid night out on the Berlin Cabaret!

Image

I think a better reward would have been a “hair treatment”;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pY9CgzSxZKY

Or, a chin treatment;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hYg4XaBm6F8



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RE: 8MP Axis T19

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 19 29-October-1941: The "PAPARAZZI"
ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
I think a better reward would have been a “hair treatment”;
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pY9CgzSxZKY
Or, a chin treatment;
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hYg4XaBm6F8

Bizarrely they turned down the painful surgery and went for the all expenses night out on the Cabaret instead. Unfortunately the paparazzi was out in force and took some photos.

Image

Mrs Stelteck has sent an urgent message demanding to know who the young lady in the photo is. And Olga has also sent an urgent message wanting to know who she is too. [:D]
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RE: 8MP Axis - T2 AirWar

Post by Telemecus »

Turn 2 2-July-1941 Air - a retrospective request
ORIGINAL: Telemecus
All our bombers continue to operate on repaired rail lines connected to the home rail network using staging bases to extend range. Vehicle conservation is important and for some is a reason to not use the air force at all. Although so far I have not seen it documented a staging base placed somewhere between a bomber base and the target will give a maximum range to target of one and a half times its radius. So our Heinkel bombers, which have a radius of 43 hexes, actually have a maximum range of 64 hexes to a target. Thus we square the circle of both using an air force and not losing vehicles for it.

As requested by PM - screenshots of how staging bases were used earlier on in the game on turn 2 - here they are combined with being forward fighter bases. Bases with heavy aircraft such as bombers never leave rails.

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with the results

Image

Soviet airbases are stacked and grouped together around Pskow. Stacking reduces the opportunity for bombing to 2 per hex for up to 3 stacked airbases, rather than up to 6 for 3 airbases in different hexes - although arguably bombing is more effective the more aircraft there are in a hex. Concentrating airbases in hexes next to each other allows for mutual assistance with AA fire (perhaps Pskow also has attached AA SUs), air HQs to be near several of their bases at once, and close Soviet fighter interception coverage - but it also allows a staging base to economise on operational miles flown to bombing these local groups of airbases. The battle results indicate little impact from AA fire or fighter interception, so perhaps a dispersal strategy of keeping airbases that are on different hexes wide apart to increase operational miles flown by Luftwaffe bombers would have been better right now. As it is it is in easy German fighter range, and not only can level bombers fly there from a railhead, by using the fighter bases as staging bases the operational miles flown are minimal. Optimally there should be an empty airbase further forward to stage both fighters and bombers. Still at this period the Soviets are offering escorted concentrated bombing targets at very short operational range for bombers on railheads. Added to this the targets contain mostly ready aircraft of our priority models. The I16s and I15s have been mostly sorted to bases on hexes which will be left alone. It seems designed for optimal German bombing impact. IFK alone with 378 ready level bombers bags over 300 kills from just over a dozen bombing runs, mostly of good models, and many more are damaged too.
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8MP Axis - Air Deployment Principles

Post by Telemecus »

Air Deployment Principles

As requested a diagram of the idealised way I deploy airbases and airgroups. Of course in practise nothing ever matches the ideal. But at least it demonstrates how you can perpetuate an air offensive with well supplied airbases and airgroups deployed well forward as Axis. All too often Axis air campaigns run out of steam or supply after a dozen turns without active management.

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RE: 8MP Axis - Air Deployment Principles

Post by Mamluke »

1 - How many Fighter planes to you keep in the forward airbases?

2 - Do you try to cycle the Rail line bases <-> forward bases every turn? or is that decided by the state of fuel/ammo ? for the sake of argument, what quantities are acceptable until a switch becomes necessary?

3 - against an aggressive Soviet air player in the early turns, do you still keep the Fighter planes in the forward air bases?

PS: thanks for posting this retrospect! :)
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