War Drums Beating in Syria

[Dysta]

So how many missiles does Syria intercepted, to be exact. I heard numerous versions already.

13? 20? 30? 60? And now 71?

[mikeCK]

The claim about 71 missiles being intercepted is from a Russian military official. Take it with a HUGE grain of salt.
Especially since i don’t believe an airbase was even targeted. Lol

All this stuff about 19 missiles at this airbase and 10 at that. Those places weren’t even targetted. Syrians had no idea what was happening
“According to Pentagon officials, a number of facilities were struck: a chemical weapons storage facility; a chemical weapons equipment storage and crucial command post near Homs; and a scientific research facility in Damascus, believed to be key in the production of chemical precursors.”

[Filitch]

About 13. This is difficulties of translation. 13 missiles was shut down south of Damascus. This is not a number of all shot downed missiles.

[Filitch]

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

The claim about 71 missiles being intercepted is from a Russian military official. Take it with a HUGE grain of salt.

Are we should take all Pentagons claims with a HUGE grain of salt?

[mikeCK]

Lol. No
Pentagon briefing says no missiles were shot down
Photos of the target shows all 3 completely destroyed.

And no sir, no airbases were even attacked so where does this precise “19 missiles targeting an airbase were shot down” come from?

And yes, I believe an official US military briefing over the statements of a Russian General 13 hours after the strike

Do you really think that Syrians - operating 20-60 year old Air Defense equipment shot down 70% of terrain following cruise missiles coming in from various axis of attack and accompanied by EW jamming?

[Dysta]

Depends. Trump alarmed Syrian defense because of his tweet, and hesitated on the last 24 hours. And do not forget Russia shares intels to Syrian SAM systems regardless their aged equipment, they're still warsaw standards.

13 is my estimated bet because I have heavy doubt that Syria can launch 107 SAMs against 107 allies' strikes. But giving it's a total lockdown of civilian passage, I can expect that US also want to cripple Syrian Air Force with the convenience of anti-Chemical strike, since most the bombardments against rebels are conducted by Syrian MiGs.

[mikeCK]

There is no evidence they shot down anything and apparently didn’t even engage the missiles until after they were hitting.
One of the targets was in the middle of Damascus and was destroyed. A number of allied aircraft were used and none of those were shot down.

The AD System can be “on alert” all It wants but to engage a dozen missiles popping up on the horizon from different axis is extremely difficult to Defend against Even for a modern air defense system

[Gunner98]

Are we should take all Pentagons claims with a HUGE grain of salt?

Since the Russians are past masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon. And the Pentagon is subject to judicial and public scrutiny - I've got no doubt about who to believe. However the dust has not yet settled, we probably need to quell our quest for instant BDA and accurate information and give it a couple days to settle down. It's not COMANO with God's Eye enabled.

[Dysta]

Speaking of scenario, this event would be boring if no interception has been made, and no threat to any ally aircraft. Sometimes we should be thankful to play boring missions on milsim, because not all battles will ends epically IRL.

[mikeCK]

True. Of course, IRL the military is trying to make it as lopsided and boring as possible. No one planning anything wants excitement!

But I agree, taking out 3 campuses with 110 tomahawks and JASSM-ERs isn’t a whole
Lot of fun to game

[guanotwozero]

Trying to defend against it would be a challenging scenario, though. Victory condition could be 1 shootdown, enough for some propaganda. TV cameras showing remains of downed missile, no need to show obliterated targets.

[mikeCK]

Tomahawks have been doing this for 30 years; but I am interested to see how the JASSM-ERs launched from the B-1b bombers faired. I haven’t seen any footage of collateral damage indicating a miss but is going to take some time. This is the first use of that system I have heard of...had it been used before?

[jtoatoktoe]

ORIGINAL: mikeCK

Tomahawks have been doing this for 30 years; but I am interested to see how the JASSM-ERs launched from the B-1b bombers faired. I haven’t seen any footage of collateral damage indicating a miss but is going to take some time. This is the first use of that system I have heard of...had it been used before?

Its the first known use. Hence Trumps "New,Smart" missile comment the other day,

[Filitch]

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Lol. No
Pentagon briefing says no missiles were shot down

No comments. I can't discuss the question of religion

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Photos of the target shows all 3 completely destroyed.

Yes! All 100+ missiles hit this 3 targets. US missiles so weak that to destroy three buildings needed 100 missiles. Past time, after Shailat hitting we can count shell holes. Do you count 100 shell holes on this photos?

ORIGINAL: mikeCK
Do you really think that Syrians - operating 20-60 year old Air Defense equipment shot down 70% of terrain following cruise missiles coming in from various axis of attack and accompanied by EW jamming?

It sounds like a mantra "terrain following cruise missiles coming in from various axis of attack and accompanied by EW jamming"
cruise missile is a non-maneuverable, low-speed vehicle - ideal target.
various axis of attack - air defense ability expresses in count of firing channels. not a mystics axis of attack. i see no problem for Buk with 6 firing channels to hit 4 "non-maneuverable, low-speed cruise missiles"
EW jamming - no comments, please read anything, starting from school physics course.

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
Since the Russians are past masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon.

You are out of line. Please apologize for yout words

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
And the Pentagon is subject to judicial and public scrutiny

No comments. I can't discuss the question of religion

[DWReese]

It's possible, actually very likely, that 100+ missiles were fired with the expectation that the Russian S-400, and other newer systems would be involved. Therefore, the abundance of ordinance guaranteed that it exceeded the saturation level. When the Russian systems didn't come into play, the ordinance was simply overkill.

So, why didn't the Russian equipment actually come into play?

1.) The Russians could see that the amount of ordinance was going to exceed what they had to defend the targets, and they didn't want it to appear that despite the presence of Russian-made equipment, the targets still got hit--resulting in a propaganda loss.

2.) The Russians weren't in actual position (logistically or geographically) to attempt to hit the incoming missiles.

3.) In an effort to avoid any escalation, the Russians elected not to defend the Syrian targets.

4.) By allowing the targets to be hit, the Syrians/Russians could play the "victim card" and call out the attackers as the "aggressors."

5.) A behind-the-scenes deal was struck by the US and Russia for the Allies to conduct a limited "retaliatory" response against Syria with the understanding that the targeted attacks would not expand beyond these specifically designed areas. The Allies could then claim victory on the battlefield, while Syria and Russia can claim victory in the arena of public opinion.

Just some thoughts.

Doug

[mikeCK]

“
Yes! All 100+ missiles hit this 3 targets. US missiles so weak that to destroy three buildings needed 100 missiles. Past time, after Shailat hitting we can count shell holes. Do you count 100 shell holes on this photo”

Ok, so we are off the “70% of missiles were shot down” and moving into ridiculousness. The Tomahawk carries a 1000lb warhead and the JASSM carries a 450lb warhead. Have you ever worked in targeting? These complexes weren’t just 1 building. They had multiple buildings and there is built in redundancy. May want to hit 10 locations on a target...so you might launch 20 (2 at each) with another 8 split between the largest or most important

Your just being silly. I guess the Russian 1000lb warhead is far more damaging because.....it’s Russian

I have to think your just messin with me.

[mikeCK]

ORIGINAL: DWReese

It's possible, actually very likely, that 100+ missiles were fired with the expectation that the Russian S-400, and other newer systems would be involved. Therefore, the abundance of ordinance guaranteed that it exceeded the saturation level. When the Russian systems didn't come into play, the ordinance was simply overkill.

So, why didn't the Russian equipment actually come into play?

1.) The Russians could see that the amount of ordinance was going to exceed what they had to defend the targets, and they didn't want it to appear that despite the presence of Russian-made equipment, the targets still got hit--resulting in a propaganda loss.

2.) The Russians weren't in actual position (logistically or geographically) to attempt to hit the incoming missiles.

3.) In an effort to avoid any escalation, the Russians elected not to defend the Syrian targets.

4.) By allowing the targets to be hit, the Syrians/Russians could play the "victim card" and call out the attackers as the "aggressors."

5.) A behind-the-scenes deal was struck by the US and Russia for the Allies to conduct a limited "retaliatory" response against Syria with the understanding that the targeted attacks would not expand beyond these specifically designed areas. The Allies could then claim victory on the battlefield, while Syria and Russia can claim victory in the arena of public opinion.

Just some thoughts.

Doug

Doug, I think we wanted to avoid a conflict with Russia. We told them that we would not target Russian equipment or personnel UNLESS they attempted to interfere with the strike. Russians knew that if they didn’t shoot, they wouldn’t lose anything.

Had they tried to interfere, it would have quickly escalated in no one’s interest

[Gunner98]

quote:ORIGINAL: Gunner98 Since the Russians are past masters at misinformation, propaganda, controlling the press and using information as a weapon. You are out of line. Please apologize for yout words

Not sure why I should apologize for stating that the Russians are following their doctrine:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/p ... _PE198.pdf

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... icy-215538

https://globalsecurityreview.com/series ... -election/

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 016_EN.pdf

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 60481.html

https://jsis.washington.edu/ellisoncent ... rategy.pdf

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/maskirov ... -peace-war

https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/par ... ations.pdf

http://www.css.ethz.ch/en/services/digi ... 3185fb/pdf

So I won't

B

[mikeCK]

You shouldnt

[Duck Doc]

Grabbing bowl of popcorn and pulling up footstool...