TOP SECRET ORM + WARSPITE ONLY (Reverse AAR)

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Also. If the attack next to Paris succeeds then we have a shot at Paris. Maybe even this turn.

warspite1

Okay - perhaps I can ask you to return the favour from previously - if you really want to proceed with these attacks please roll the dice for me. Thank-you.

[Orm]

Sure can do.

[Orm]

So do you want to do the first part then, and I take over at land movement?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

So do you want to do the first part then, and I take over at land movement?

warspite1

Sure - if you give me your orders I'll do up to (but not including) German movement.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

So do you want to do the first part then, and I take over at land movement?

warspite1

Sure - if you give me your orders I'll do up to (but not including) German movement.

I'll take a look at my impulse now, and try and post it later this evening.

[Orm]

Italian and Japanese orders for the first part of our impulse.

No declarations of war.

Land: Japan
Combined: Italy

No Port Strikes. No naval air.

Eugene di Savoia sail to the 4-box of the Italian Coast and embark the German division in Cagliari.

No sea combat.

LND3 in Chihkiang bomb Chungking and land in Kweiyang.

Ground Strike:

Suggestion: Germany use a 4 and a 5 strength Stuka, or slightly more factors, to bomb the hex East of Paris. France can abort some factors with the AA unit in Paris.

No Japanese, nor Italian ground strikes.

No rail movement.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

So do you want to do the first part then, and I take over at land movement?

warspite1

Sure - if you give me your orders I'll do up to (but not including) German movement.

Now I better understand, and appreciate, the difficult calls you have to make as Germany.

This is the odds that we get for three attacks in France with maximum German air support- And with no French support at all. France can use HQ support for the two central attacks. And in this scenario, Germany plan to use HQ support on the main attack as well.

The odds on the main attack would be slightly better if the attack on the Dakar MIL is cancelled, although have it added since it is nice to remove units automatically. Or the attack may draw the French bomber and that, I think, is also to our advantage since I fear the French bomber more on the other attacks.

Anyway. The odds on the attack in the North go down in flames if the French bomber clears here. But if not, then HQ support might lower it to 4:1, and with 4:1 it is 90% chance that we clear the combat hex.

With the Northern combat hex cleared, and assuming the final odds for the main attack end up at 2:1 +1, then Germany have 60% chance at taking the hex. And only the AT can retreat.

The main downside is that there are no good loss units. If the Dakar MIL attack is cancelled then the main attack would include a motorized division for a possible loss.

If the attacks succeed, then we have a crack at Paris. If not, then we have lost one, or two INF, and possible air units. Although we should be at a real advantage in any air battles.

All in all I think it is worth doing all three attacks. The situation can become tougher, but I think we got to keep on trying.

What do you think?

[warspite1]

I remain of the same opinion regarding the 2:1 and the Dakar MIL attacks - i.e. no and yes respectively. The odds on the 'main' attack are better than I thought (although as you say are subject to possible HQ support and air support) so is at least more palatable as there is no guarantee either will work.

In summary I remain unconvinced by the 2:1 and fear that the 'main' attack will go wrong so probably would prefer to keep my powder dry.

But as said, if you believe this is the right way to go then be my guest.

[Orm]

No guarantee at all.

And in fact it didn't work. The French bomber got through even though we were at +3. It is astonishing that the French bomber still flies. Sad really. Although, the die rolls what the dies want and not what we wishes, nor deem fair.

Death poems
are mere delusion —
death is death.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

No guarantee at all.

And in fact it didn't work. The French bomber got through even though we were at +3. It is astonishing that the French bomber still flies. Sad really. Although, the die rolls what the dies want and not what we wishes, nor deem fair.

Death poems
are mere delusion —
death is death.

warspite1

Well you gave it a shot at least.

[Orm]

Well, that went well. Surprising enough.

Germany can reorganize 6 units with their HQs and one additional land unit with the ATR. Or it can be used to rebase a fighter closer to the front to help protect against possible CW air and counterattacks.

Italy plan to rebase their FTR2 and LND3 closer to where a counterattack is expected.

[Orm]

And before I rolled the combat rolls I was considering to offer my surrender. Hence the picture a couple of posts back. Sometimes things do change fast.

[warspite1]

Good work sir!

I think the best fighter should head SW of Brussels and the six most useful units for Paris be reorganised - all three east of the capital obviously, then the three next best.

[warspite1]

Suggested EOT for Germany Jan/Feb 1941

2 x Defensive markers

Prelim Saving 3 oil (in addition to the 2 Trade being saved in Berlin)
Prague (Synth) in place
Austria (Resource) in Lodz
Germany (Resource( in Lodz
= 18 Build Points

Production
ARM HQ 8
INF 3
MIL 2
PIL 2
FTR 3

Reinforcement
INF - Konigsberg
FTR - Cologne


Reorganise all units except Schleisen for 4 points.

[Orm]

Suggested Italian and Japanese end of turn:

Preliminary planning:
Italy save one oil in Milan. The rest go for production. Italy has 8 BPs for production.

Japan save one oil in Osaka. All other resources, and oil, go to production for 16 BPs.

The Italian CA in the Italian Coast remain at sea, along with all the CPs.
The Italian FTR, and NAV3, returns to Nice.
The first NAV2 returns to hex 75, 40 on Sicily.
The second NAV2 return to La Spezia.
The Italian SUBs return to La Spezia as well.

Japanese AMPH, 3 range TRS, and BB, return to Canton
The two remaining Japanese TRS return to Fukuoka.

Oil reorganisation:
Japan reorganizes all units for the cost of one oil. Please, use one of the oils in Yokohama.
Italy reorganize all their units for a cost of one oil. Please, use one of the oils in Milan.


Production:
Italy (8):
Scap LND3 (Ca.135)
TERR
PIL
LND3
SUB (1st)

Japan (16):
SYNTH
PIL
CV
3 x CVP1
SUB (1st)

Italy destroy the factory in Nantes.

Reinforcements:

Italy:
NAV3 -> Turin

Japan:
CVP1 (4 naval strength B5N1) -> CV Soryo in Tokyo
CVP1 (Strongest 1 size D3A1) -> CVL Hosho in Fukuoka
CV -> Tokyo
MAR Div -> Tokyo
PARA Div -> Fukuoka

Axis goes first if we win the initiative. No re-roll.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Suggested EOT for Germany Jan/Feb 1941

2 x Defensive markers

Prelim Saving 3 oil (in addition to the 2 Trade being saved in Berlin)
Prague (Synth) in place
Austria (Resource) in Lodz
Germany (Resource( in Lodz
= 18 Build Points

Production
ARM HQ 8
INF 3
MIL 2
PIL 2
FTR 3

Reinforcement
INF - Konigsberg
FTR - Cologne


Reorganise all units except Schleisen for 4 points.

Germany, currently, has more defensive markers than are needed to maximize the effect from them when counting the garrison factors. I humbly suggest that both are placed in the offensive pool. No risk that Germany will have to little in the defensive pool at the moment. And enough time to transfer the markers to the defensive pool if Germany decides that USSR is not part of the long term goals. However, if USSR is part of the long term goals it is a real risk that Germany will be unable to DOW USSR if it wants to do so.

Therefore I suggest that the pact markers are both offensive.

Also, Germany has no engineers on the way, nor on the map. The ENG takes even longer to produce than HQA and is a very useful unit to have. Therefore I suggest that the HQA gets delayed, and that one ENG and one MECH is produced instead of the HQA.

[warspite1]

Thanks - I agree on the markers, and will begin ENG production next turn, but will keep the HQA for this turn (I feel better with this underway [:)])

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Suggested Italian and Japanese end of turn:

Preliminary planning:
Italy save one oil in Milan. The rest go for production. Italy has 8 BPs for production.

Japan save one oil in Osaka. All other resources, and oil, go to production for 16 BPs.

The Italian CA in the Italian Coast remain at sea, along with all the CPs.
The Italian FTR, and NAV3, returns to Nice.
The first NAV2 returns to hex 75, 40 on Sicily.
The second NAV2 return to La Spezia.
The Italian SUBs return to La Spezia as well.

Japanese AMPH, 3 range TRS, and BB, return to Canton
The two remaining Japanese TRS return to Fukuoka.

Oil reorganisation:
Japan reorganizes all units for the cost of one oil. Please, use one of the oils in Yokohama.
Italy reorganize all their units for a cost of one oil. Please, use one of the oils in Milan.


Production:
Italy (8):
Scap LND3 (Ca.135)
TERR
PIL
LND3
SUB (1st)

Japan (16):
SYNTH
PIL
CV
3 x CVP1
SUB (1st)

Italy destroy the factory in Nantes.

Reinforcements:

Italy:
NAV3 -> Turin

Japan:
CVP1 (4 naval strength B5N1) -> CV Soryo in Tokyo
CVP1 (Strongest 1 size D3A1) -> CVL Hosho in Fukuoka
CV -> Tokyo
MAR Div -> Tokyo
PARA Div -> Fukuoka

Axis goes first if we win the initiative. No re-roll.

warspite1

All looks good

[Orm]

*sigh* rain again. It feels like it has been rain in China for an entire year. With +2 on the weather roll I hoped that the weather would improve so therefore I wanted to go first. I know it was a forlorn hope, but still....

Anyway...

Not much to do but I still want to do the Japanese land movement myself. To feel the counters so to speak.

Do you want to do the first part of our impulse?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

*sigh* rain again. It feels like it has been rain in China for an entire year. With +2 on the weather roll I hoped that the weather would improve so therefore I wanted to go first. I know it was a forlorn hope, but still....

Anyway...

Not much to do but I still want to do the Japanese land movement myself. To feel the counters so to speak.

Do you want to do the first part of our impulse?

warspite1

Sure.