Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Yup. Each turn begins with a cringe, as I ponder those possibilities.

But time is in my favor. My biggest fear was that Erik would have time enough to orchestrate a series of attacks just days apart, overwhelming my meager defenses through shear attrition.

Two weeks of that exposure has passed now without incident. The first emergency contingency (my carrier force) had time to reach station for "just in case" scenarios. The CVEs will be available in about a week. Once they are on station, I don't think I'm "the hunted" any more.

[Canoerebel]

9/16/44

CVE Upgrades:

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/16/44

CVE Upgrades:

I apologize. But I am incapable of being tremulous in a non-erotic way. For your readers concerned about such unintentional upgrade-related eroticism, can you propose different verbiage? Perhaps trepidatious?

[Canoerebel]

Moist?

[jwolf]

I imagine in nightmare a scenario like the siege and attempted relief at Khartoum in the 1880s. Here's to hoping your carrier forces assemble and arrive in time to prevent a more serious loss at Sakhalin.

[Canoerebel]

The AA values up above are POST-upgrade.

Here is a pre-upgrade image, with AA value of 197. So the AA upgrade is about 300 points. The aggregate for the 50 carriers is therefore about 15,000 points. That's alot of AA firepower. I hope.

[crsutton]

It is a help but CVEs are like sending floating cartons full of eggs into battle. One large bang and it tends to get very messy inside.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that's true, but KB has a longevity issue. We all know that one major strike by KB aircraft against good CAP and AA, and the carriers may have to retire to allow their air groups to recover. So everything that can be done to enhance Death Star's strength has been done.

[Chickenboy]

crsutton's got a point. As one who is familiar with all uses of eggs, I would bawk at overuse of your CVEs in this case.

[Canoerebel]

You bawk all you want. I've gotta use those CVEs, even if they end up as metaphors for ablative armor.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You bawk all you want. I've gotta use those CVEs, even if they end up as metaphors for ablative armor.

Aren't they more like similes?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You bawk all you want. I've gotta use those CVEs, even if they end up as metaphors for ablative armor.

Meatshielding is a valid strategy.

[Canoerebel]

9/17/44

Shikuka Fortress: No enemy attack today. It could happen tomorrow or the next day or never. In the meantime, I'm gathering everything for the upcoming push.

Strategic Map: A bit of information about what's going on elsewhere. It's not alot but it should mean something eventually.

[Canoerebel]

There is the possibility of a major engagement in a few weeks that might involve sea combat, subs, PT boats, kamikazes, night bombers, LBA day strikes, carrier strikes, and most anything else possible.

Question, is the full moon a friend of Japan, the Allies, or neutral?

The Allies will be the aggressor force fighting in Japanese controlled but not dominated waters. I don't think night bombing is a major concern, partly because Allied carrier TFs include night-fighter squadrons.

I think the biggest question is night surface combat and MTBs/PTs. It's late 1944, so the Allies should have good radar and firepower.

Do I want to avoid the full moon or seek it?

What about Erik? What do you think he'd favor?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is the possibility of a major engagement in a few weeks that might involve sea combat, subs, PT boats, kamikazes, night bombers, LBA day strikes, carrier strikes, and most anything else possible.

Question, is the full moon a friend of Japan, the Allies, or neutral?

The Allies will be the aggressor force fighting in Japanese controlled but not dominated waters. I don't think night bombing is a major concern, partly because Allied carrier TFs include night-fighter squadrons.

I think the biggest question is night surface combat and MTBs/PTs. It's late 1944, so the Allies should have good radar and firepower.

Do I want to avoid the full moon or seek it?

What about Erik? What do you think he'd favor?

The full moon favours the Allied SCTFs in a night battle because the game does not let them open fire until they actually see the enemy ships. Allied firepower is generally better if IJN torpedoes are not too close to them.

OTH, PTTFs do better with no moon because they can get closer before being sighted. That is the same for both sides but I think the Allies get more PTs/MTBs.
MGBs/PBs/PCs/PGs are only good against weakly defended transports.
I think subs prefer full moon so they can sight enemy ships and get in a good position for attack.
I don't know if no moon has a negative effect on navigation, but I suspect large convoys have a greater chance of ship collision when there is no moon.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, BBfanboy.

It sounds like the moon phase won't play a major role (or that advantages and disadvantages will mutually cancel).

On a related note, Erik unleashed his massive sea attack on Shikuka on September 1, the first night of a full moon. I figured he purposefully selected that phase because he had so many subs, MTBs and other riff-raff entering the port to engage my combat ships. He may be waiting for the next full moon to come again, but by then Death Star and Friends should be in theater.

It's also possible that the timing of his attack was purely coincidental...or even that he figured I was putting my CVEs into port for upgrades available beginning that day. I hope it wasn't the latter. If it was, that means not only did he know the date the upgrade becomes avaiable (I wouldn't be surprised at that) but also deduced I was highly likely to be doing them.

Being predictible is scary.

[Bullwinkle58]

As I learned in my Lokasenna game, playing a Japan opponent who knows the Allies as well or better than you is Really Hard. I don't think any Japan advantage comes as close in terms of his planning.

[Canoerebel]

It's daunting.

I'm trying to take into consideration as many factors as I can - little things, like moon phase, riff-raff use, CAP traps, and anything else I can come up with. What bothers me is that there are things I don't know that I don't know.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's daunting.

I'm trying to take into consideration as many factors as I can - little things, like moon phase, riff-raff use, CAP traps, and anything else I can come up with. What bothers me is that there are things I don't know that I don't know.

If I had to pick one area you don't know well and that I didn't either, it's the pros and cons of the late-war IJA fighter models. There are some real bomber-killers and sweep specialists in there. Randy in particular. The Frank-r in triple digits is pretty fearsome too.

The kami code, or really I guess the coordination code, has been patched a lot since I used them in AI games. They could be a big factor, or he might not expend the VPs. But you have to consider them.

[Canoerebel]

9/18/44 to 9/28/44

This game is a real chess match with alot going on behind the scenes and forces moving in proximity and little things happening here and there. It's a great deal of fun, but because so much is behind the scenes, I figured that the show wasn't particularly mesmerizing for Ye Peanut Gallery. In fact, for many turns, I could simply refer to the 9/17/44 strategic map posted above, and say, "Ditto." The would be the truth insofar as what I want to present, but it's far from the whole truth. What's going on is tense and significant and requires about 10,000 clicks per turn. The quiet may end with the next turn or may continue for another six or seven turns. So I may resume posting or remain "in the shades" until the appropriate time.

NoPac: Erik hasn't attacked since the initial onslaught at the first of the month. Allied 4EB finally returned to Shikuka and hit Onnekotan pretty hard yesterday. Tomorrow, moonlight will be 96% and a ton of enemy shipping - riff-raff and probably big stuff - is just of the SE cape of Sikhalin Island. It could be a probe but I think 50/50 Erik comes full bore. My "relief force" isn't quite in place yet but it isn't too far away. A lot will happen in the not-too-distant future.

About three days ago, I think I caught wind of Erik's carriers moving SW from Hokkaido, as though bound for the Pacific through the Sea of Japan - as though perhaps sniffing out Allied activity around Marcus Island or in order to slip unseen up the Japanese east coast in preparation for what's coming.

The war almost surely will be won or lost in NoPac in the next two weeks. If the Allies prevail at sea, I should be able to prosecute future operations in good position. If the Allied navy gets hammered, I may never get this show rolling properly. I feel pretty optimistic given the strength of the Allied naval OOB, but this could turn on die rolls or weather or clever use of game mechanics (LRCAP, follow, tolerance levels, etc.).

Burma/China: House Rules violation! Oops. I forgot there's a HR prohibiting strategic bombing in China. Some Allied 2EB and 4EB from Ledo scored two hits against Light Industry. Erik politely pointed out the HR, so I am back on the straight and narrow. Memory violation! I have various units feinting moves to create movement dots that leave Erik a bit uncertain as to what's happening where. I forgot to stand down one stack before it crossed a river against a large Japanese stack. I was fortunate that outright losses weren't large - mostly disablements. Allied bombers have been working against Toungoo and a second IJ stack to the SW. The impact has been fairly small but Erik has employed his fighters a few times - twice they've run afoul of Allied fighters that performed very well. The ground war remains stalemated in Burma but the Allies have done well in the air (no doubt because so much of his best stuff is at Hokkaido).

Australia: There was a fun kind of "race to the Bridge at Remagen" event. A small Aussie armored squadron was due to withdraw in 30 days, so I used it to move against empty bases west of Darwin, hoping to pick up as many of the bases as possible before the unit vanishes. The unit picked up Wyndham, moved over the desert to take Nookanbah, made it to Derby...and with two days remaining will make Broome tomorrow. To the west, a small Allied amphib op took vacant Esperance. Additional units are moving overland and should begin arriving on scene soon - one unit is just a few days from vacant Kalgoorlie. Allied fast transport also managed to handle a successful invasion of unoccupied Saumlaki. Erik responded by sending in a CL/DD bombardment TF. So this is apparently across his "line in the sand."

Pacific: I've cleaned up all the vacant dot bases in the Marshalls and Solomons.

No I shall slip back into those fabled shades of yore for a few hours or few days.