Monday Night Montage (ex-Moose Crossings) - (J) vs. Bullwinkle/Obvert (A)

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Pictures, pictures, pictures! [:D]

These remind me of Fragglerock. I never actually watched Fragglerock.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Kuriles

I've received several comments over the last year or two from Bullwinkle about how "most players don't defend the Kuriles with a division each like you do." This doesn't mean he won't invade up here, however... and I see 5-7 divisions, liberated from Chinese duty, as a small price to pay for northern security.

Two of the Depot Divisions are on duty up here, from when he activated them back when. Like the Celebes, some of these islands are intended only as speed bumps/obstacles. I would fight hard for Etorofu and Uruppu-jima for sure. Shimushiri-jima and Ketoi-jima I probably would fight for. The 3 northern islands I likely would leave to their own devices and stockpiles - they're just too far from Hokkaido and the Sakhalins.

I'm beginning to build the airfields at Wakkanai and Shikotan (the dot base/island you see the amphib TF at right now). I have torpedo coverage. I've got a fair amount of aerial ASW up here, and so far his subs haven't appeared in any great numbers for quite some time.

Sometimes, he tries some night bombing of Paramushiro. I have a NF squadron and some Georges on night CAP there, plus another unit on day CAP. I forget about them until he bombs again. Good way to train up pilots...

Dang! That is tough territory up there! I think I'm doing a good job up north, but this trumps my defence a bit. I'll have to stiffen it up, and luckily I have a lot arriving soon to do that with! [;)]

How is Hokkaido though? I see that as the bigger threat, and I allocate accordingly.

You seem to be doing well, and thwarting the landing at Pegu could really help.

I'd venture that with your defences obviously so entrenched in the Marianas he'd be better off hitting the soft underbelly in the Celebes, taking a month for those, another month for Mindanao, and then Luzon in September. He can bomb the Western HI at least from Luzon, and of course shut off the oil.

Looks like you've done what you can and now it's just about making them take more time than they want and taking a tithe of VPs for every piece of ground lost. [:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Kuriles

I've received several comments over the last year or two from Bullwinkle about how "most players don't defend the Kuriles with a division each like you do." This doesn't mean he won't invade up here, however... and I see 5-7 divisions, liberated from Chinese duty, as a small price to pay for northern security.

Two of the Depot Divisions are on duty up here, from when he activated them back when. Like the Celebes, some of these islands are intended only as speed bumps/obstacles. I would fight hard for Etorofu and Uruppu-jima for sure. Shimushiri-jima and Ketoi-jima I probably would fight for. The 3 northern islands I likely would leave to their own devices and stockpiles - they're just too far from Hokkaido and the Sakhalins.

I'm beginning to build the airfields at Wakkanai and Shikotan (the dot base/island you see the amphib TF at right now). I have torpedo coverage. I've got a fair amount of aerial ASW up here, and so far his subs haven't appeared in any great numbers for quite some time.

Sometimes, he tries some night bombing of Paramushiro. I have a NF squadron and some Georges on night CAP there, plus another unit on day CAP. I forget about them until he bombs again. Good way to train up pilots...

Dang! That is tough territory up there! I think I'm doing a good job up north, but this trumps my defence a bit. I'll have to stiffen it up, and luckily I have a lot arriving soon to do that with! [;)]

How is Hokkaido though? I see that as the bigger threat, and I allocate accordingly.

You seem to be doing well, and thwarting the landing at Pegu could really help.

I'd venture that with your defences obviously so entrenched in the Marianas he'd be better off hitting the soft underbelly in the Celebes, taking a month for those, another month for Mindanao, and then Luzon in September. He can bomb the Western HI at least from Luzon, and of course shut off the oil.

Looks like you've done what you can and now it's just about making them take more time than they want and taking a tithe of VPs for every piece of ground lost. [:)]

The LCUs in place are weaker than the Kuriles... for now. In 1943 I was concerned about a landing in the Kuriles if he went for a sort-of hail mary. Now that he's getting more shipping and CVs, I'll have to protect it a bit better. I'm trying not to leave Japan itself too weak by sending too much out.

At Shikotan, that little island with the amphib TF, my intent is just to prevent a paratroop/SST landing. If I were invading, I'd target that place as an offshore airfield to support a Hokkaido landing. Just 39 AV there now, but forts 4. Enough to hold off an average landing. The base to the north of it, Kunashiri, is currently defended by 2 naval guards and 4 AF units, plus 2 engineer units. I'm building the airfield to 8. Forts are at 6. I'll put more infantry here eventually.

But again, this defense calculus is based on the moves he's made so far. If he were going to land on Hokkaido, he wouldn't have gone south from Marcus to take Truk. I also think he subscribes to the same school of thought as me, which is that an invasion of Japan itself in a normal game is counterproduction. Just strat bomb and call it a day. Hokkaido may be the one exception to that, simply because it provides the airfields with which to strat bomb. And he's already triggered the weak Japanese emergency reinforcement package...

The rest of Hokkaido:
Kushiro - 293 AV, AF 2, forts 5+49%

Bihoro - 377 AV (2 brigades), AF 5+76%, forts 6. This is an extremely likely landing spot in the case of an invasion, so I'll be maxing it out.

Wakkanai - 106 AV, port 4, AF 3+45%, forts 5. Same here as Bihoro... but I need more engineers. I'm making do with just a few dozen here.

Asahikawa - 820 AV, AF 8+44%, forts 4+94%. The only non-shore airfield, which is important. I'll be putting it to 9, and getting forts to at least 6. The combat LCUs are here to provide their engineers. I'll move some elsewhere once the AF is at 9.

Sapporo - 551, port 5, AF 8+4%, forts 4.

Muroran - 45 AV, port 3, AF 9, forts 4. I need to get the forts higher and bring some more LCUs up from somewhere.

Hakodate - not that I think there's no way he'd invade here, but it's not the best place to initiate a landing. It would get swarmed. In any case, just 78 AV, port 7, AF 6+38%, forts 4. 277 mines with 2 ACMs (subs have hit a few [:'(]). Given that this place likely wouldn't be invaded, I plan to max the airfield first.


I get 2 more divisions of 458 AV each in 13 days, and a 3rd in 15 days plus the 4th Tank Division. I expect to send the 4th Tank up here (it's a relatively weak unit but could bolster Hokkaido just fine), and at least one of the infantry divisions. These are my last big reinforcements in the entire queue. In 17 days, I get 4 more brigades in China and one of the big mixed brigades at Osaka. I do need to make sure that my beaches on Japan at least appear to be heavily defended. In 19 days, I get 2 weaker divisions that are suitable for garrison duty only. I think I have a few heavy divisions left in Manchuria that I could swap them with.

[Lokasenna]

Pegu sweeps - June 23, 1944

Yeesh. I'm not sure what happened here - fatigue is my best guess. Many of my group averages were around 20. Morale was 90+ for all of them, though.

None of the individual groups themselves got hit all that hard, but the morale for all of them tanked. Given how well I'd performed previously against these sweeps, I thought maybe there was just an extreme FoW obscuring here and that it wasn't this bad - maybe only like half of the results reported. It was much, much worse, as shown in Tracker. Pilot losses weren't too bad, at least. Most groups still have 40+ pilots. If he continues to press in the air here, I won't be able to do much to defend for a couple of days. I didn't have many groups behind to bring up. I've transferred a few more from western Japan and China, but they currently have green pilots. I would have to swap pilots around.

[Canoerebel]

We all know the Moose from his Forum presence. I've always suspected he'd be a good player. He's obviously smart, and he's one of those gents who loves detail. That's usually a combination that works well.

But Moose is really a bit of an unknown. He played AI only for many years. Now he's bought into PBEM (and in a big way). But he's only started two games; this one and one that ended quickly (I think the latter was against a non-Forumite opponent from eastern Europe - maybe we can dub him The Mad Hungarian). So the Moose is still a bit of an unknown to us.

Share with us, therefore, your frank and candid impression of him as a player.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We all know the Moose from his Forum presence. I've always suspected he'd be a good player. He's obviously smart, and he's one of those gents who loves detail. That's usually a combination that works well.

But Moose is really a bit of an unknown. He played AI only for many years. Now he's bought into PBEM (and in a big way). But he's only started two games; this one and one that ended quickly (I think the latter was against a non-Forumite opponent from eastern Europe - maybe we can dub him The Mad Hungarian). So the Moose is still a bit of an unknown to us.

Share with us, therefore, your frank and candid impression of him as a player.

That's a bit of a tall order, sir. A lot of my assessment will be things he's told me.

[Flicker]

I'm interested in the Moose's sub game if you wouldn't mind sharing a few words; how effective has he been with his subs? Where (and how) has he deployed his subs? You mentioned that the Moose has gone into your ports (and found mines)? Is that normal for him? What about patrolling port roads? My impression is that the Moose would be aggressive with his subs.

[Canoerebel]

Moose works his sub game harder than anything else. He loves subs. I bet he micromanages each one, lovingly caressing it's smallest patrol settings. If Loka says any different, I'll be very surprised.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Pegu sweeps - June 23, 1944

Yeesh. I'm not sure what happened here - fatigue is my best guess. Many of my group averages were around 20. Morale was 90+ for all of them, though.

None of the individual groups themselves got hit all that hard, but the morale for all of them tanked. Given how well I'd performed previously against these sweeps, I thought maybe there was just an extreme FoW obscuring here and that it wasn't this bad - maybe only like half of the results reported. It was much, much worse, as shown in Tracker. Pilot losses weren't too bad, at least. Most groups still have 40+ pilots. If he continues to press in the air here, I won't be able to do much to defend for a couple of days. I didn't have many groups behind to bring up. I've transferred a few more from western Japan and China, but they currently have green pilots. I would have to swap pilots around.

That sucks. Big snowballing losses sometimes just happen with sweeps by Jugs/Spits/Corsairs.

Whatever you're doing with settings I'd change it for a few turns and see what happens. Just pick a different altitude, put all groups at same altitude, layer them, change whatever it is that's going on and see if the losses reduce.

If he's not following them yet with bombers just stand down a turn too, throwing the dice he won't gamble and send in the 4Es. Your guys need rest.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Pegu sweeps - June 23, 1944

Yeesh. I'm not sure what happened here - fatigue is my best guess. Many of my group averages were around 20. Morale was 90+ for all of them, though.

None of the individual groups themselves got hit all that hard, but the morale for all of them tanked. Given how well I'd performed previously against these sweeps, I thought maybe there was just an extreme FoW obscuring here and that it wasn't this bad - maybe only like half of the results reported. It was much, much worse, as shown in Tracker. Pilot losses weren't too bad, at least. Most groups still have 40+ pilots. If he continues to press in the air here, I won't be able to do much to defend for a couple of days. I didn't have many groups behind to bring up. I've transferred a few more from western Japan and China, but they currently have green pilots. I would have to swap pilots around.

That sucks. Big snowballing losses sometimes just happen with sweeps by Jugs/Spits/Corsairs.

Whatever you're doing with settings I'd change it for a few turns and see what happens. Just pick a different altitude, put all groups at same altitude, layer them, change whatever it is that's going on and see if the losses reduce.

If he's not following them yet with bombers just stand down a turn too, throwing the dice he won't gamble and send in the 4Es. Your guys need rest.

When I sent the turn back, I just stood them down. I'd rather rest my fighters for a handful of days and get their morale built back up in time for me to LRCAP prior to attacking again. I've been running them on LRCAP from Moulmein, Chiang Mai, and Rahaeng for about a week I think. 60-70%. They need a break.

My LCUs were too fatigued to attack again anyway. Allied firepower is brutal. Fatigue went from the 20s/30s prior to the attack to 40s/50s. Disruption was still low, but I'd rather be patient here than burn some units out. Forts are high enough that his bombing runs don't do as much as if it were strictly in the open (got them back up to 3 and building, IIRC).

Forts at Moulmein are working towards level 9...

Of note, I saw him trying to move around my forces outside Ramree this turn. I may need to move back from the stack hex soon. I'm not sure I can maintain the hex side control that I need if he's sending enough around the hex (and I think he is). I have a number of days before he's even shifted hex sides, though, and after he has my guys will move faster along the road. I need to look up movement rates - I think he may have just started moving this turn from jungle rough to plains terrain. I need to see how fast he can move at that transition with INF units and then plan accordingly. I think I may want to move out ahead of time. It would be great if I could reach Prome in time to rail out to Moulmein. I don't really want to just give up Rangoon, but if I can evacuate everything to Moulmein with its forts, I just might. Not sure.

[obvert]

I'd give it an extra few days estimate over what you are seeing, just in case, for his movement. I've been caught out by trying to estimate too closely. No need to cut it close at this point.

Seems like if you can eject the Pegu invaders then Rangoon becomes a viable holding point again, and if Pegu can be the primary bastion in troop numbers, then Rangoon with it's better territory can be a delaying spot. Once the Allies get Rangoon all of their problems in Burma end. Supply flows into the massive and easily moves to LCUs and fields. The airfield allows local control and (in my experience) the beginnings of SE Asian strat bombing against Bangkok, Saigon and maybe parts of Malaysia.

[Lokasenna]

Manchuria

I know, boring - it'll be a year and change before there's any action here. For posterity's sake, I think this is where I lose. I don't think it matters much what my VP margin is come 9/1/1945. I don't think there's any way I can prevent him from getting to 2:1 once he's taken a few bases in the big open space here. I just don't see how I can defend it in a way that would be worthwhile. Better to cede the north and defend the cities and better terrain in Korea. I don't even really want to defend the cities because of the map (Harbin in particular is exposed), but I will. I would prefer to defend Changchun, Mukden, and south... but here's what's at Harbin for industry:

C6N1 Myrt 30(0)
S1A1 Denko 6(24)
Ki-102c Randy 27(3)
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah 30(0)
Ki-45 KAIa Nick 30(0)
Mitsubishi Ha-43 60(0)
Nakajima Ha-34 80(0)
Nakajima Ha-35 160(0)
Mitsubishi Ha-43 90(0)
Nakajima Ha-45 150(0)


Lots of factories, right? The reason why I expanded so much (the engines in particular; although I don't think overly so, really) is because I expect him to be able to bomb the HI from some islands at some point in 1945, and I want a place that's relatively safe from strat bombing at least until the Soviets come around.

Still got some time here to continue to build forts and move engineers/units around to keep up the building. Right now my biggest stacks are the one west of Rashin (I forget that base's name, on the coast) and Changchun, which has 1200 AV. The rest is scattered about.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Moose works his sub game harder than anything else. He loves subs. I bet he micromanages each one, lovingly caressing it's smallest patrol settings. If Loka says any different, I'll be very surprised.

Moose loves all his ships (as he's told me many times), and especially his subs. He's only recently, within the past few months, begun to really send them forward. The first time I really saw any, after his initial attempts to penetrate my shipping lanes, was when he invaded the Marshalls. He flooded the area with subs to harass my fleet. He did the same thing when he came for Marcus, Truk, and Ponape.

All of those subs are now doing this:



I'm not sure if he's doing the same thing - prepping for a big fleet movement here. It's probably an inevitable move at some point, but is he just showing me all the subs now to keep my brain here while he does something else? It's possible. More on that later.

Beyond that, there are a few subs in the South China Sea now. I lost an xAK with fuel on it not so long ago, and one of the big Tonans. Still, my econ is largely OK. More on that later also - it's on my list of posts to make.

[Lokasenna]

Other sub actions...

There are a score or so off the south coast of Honshu. An annoyance but so far they haven't scored anything major. A couple of LSTs, an E or SC or three, etc. Maybe an xAKL or smaller xAK. Most of my shipping goes through Nagasaki/Sasebo, which is much easier to create a bubble around. I have started to put float planes on the "shimas" off Tokyo, though, to help with detection. Troops do move out of Tokyo, but now that I almost have the Bonins stacked up and if anything am overcommitted to the Marianas (maybe?) almost everything is moving out of Sasebo.

There have also been some subs around the eastern tip of Java. Even if that's significant, nothing I can do about it. If he comes for Java, I can't commit much else given the positions in the central Pacific (too easy to cut behind me). I would need to delay as much as possible (a post on Java will be coming...also on the list [:'(]) to prevent him getting ready access to the South China Sea, but gotta juggle the priorities...

Also a few subs around the Kuriles, however besides supplies nothing much of mine is moving around up here.

[Lokasenna]

As many folks know, a while back Bullwinkle stepped away from this game and Obvert has taken over the Allied side. Moose stepped away on November 30, 1944, and about 3 real life months ago. Since then, Obvert and I have played 11 turns. We're going at a couple per week right now, heavily dependent on my schedule more than anything else. Hopefully I don't get too slow for him (or me for that matter).

In any case, I'm going to post periodic montages. Since this is a Monday, I'll call them Monday Night Montages for now.

[Lokasenna]

December 10, 1944

I assume from his AAR title (Operation Meridian) and from his in-game actions that he'll be bombing out Oil centers in the DEI. While I'd love the Oil to continue to flow, it's just become harder and harder to hoover up and send back to Japan as the Allies have crept (or leapt) forward in the southern DEI. Palembang was already very dicey. Singapore is still relatively secure by virtue of interlocking airfields, but by no means unthreatened.

A few weeks ago, the last haul of 500K+ Fuel in a single convoy made it to Japan and unloaded. I don't anticipate being able to do another, and I've ramped up my industrial "glide."

[Lokasenna]

December 10, 1944

Also some scattered strat bombing of Burma and Indochina, mix of night time and daylight. At this point we're only talking about some small thousands for supply production. I'm not concerned.... yet, hopefully not ever.

[Lokasenna]

December 10, 1944

What was never intended as more than a speedbump, and has since been abandoned as much as possible via some Fast Transport TFs (some weeks ago) and PA/TR plane pickups has stalled some moderate number of Allied LCUs, necessitating regular milk runs by medium (and sometimes heavy, old BBs) elements of the USN.

Same story at Jolo.

[Lokasenna]

December 10, 1944

Go away!

[Lokasenna]

December 10, 1944

Operational tempo has increased.