Wargammer of the Year Attempt #1

[larryfulkerson]

This is Kiev currently and I detect what could be an empty hex near Kiev and I'd
like to explore the possibilities of having that hex. I'm going to see if I can't
get a unit in there.

[larryfulkerson]

This is what Leningrad looks like now. The Finns are making progress and the air
war is heating up and we're still in the Fall of the year too. The Soviet BB's have
left port and that means I need to get the Stuka's up here to take a shot at them
because excursions are rare.

[larryfulkerson]

This is what Kiev looks like now. The size of the Soviet defender groups is
getting smaller and I'm hoping I can force the crossing because I need to get on the
east side of the river soonest.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the T18 front lines before I have moved anybody.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the northern front lines currently and the Soviets have parked the ships that
remain from my attacks as they moved to that position. I sank the two BB's but there's
still some heavy Cruisers etc. that I can shoot so I need to attack the group some more.
I've gotten one of my divisions too far forward and cut off and now I need to rescue
them. The mop up to the west is almost done and those troops can make their way to
Narva and points east. The Finns are slowly approaching their stop lines and
the story is different south of Leningrad. I had predicted about 10 turns ago that
I would have been attacking the city by now and it didn't happen so I feel like I'm
behind schedule. On the other hand the stopping of the advance has allowed the rails
to be repaired a lot closer and the supply levels are fairly good and climbing.

[larryfulkerson]

I finally captured Smolensk and it's supply point. I switched to my game with Brian
to do those moves and I come back here afterward and I find I've lost my battlefield
awareness. That's the trouble playing more than one game at a time. I need to start
keeping a more detailed AAR so I can refresh myself about what's going on.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's Kiev currently and you can see how much the perimeter around the
Soviet defenders has gotten smaller and more attacks are scheduled. I'm hoping to
be able to force a crossing somewhere to get on the east side of the river. I'd
like to be able to surround Kiev before I take it down so I can kill as many of
the Soviet defenders as possible but the units on the east side of the river are
still further north yet.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the front lines in T20 before I have moved anybody. I'll give you a zoom-in
in the next post.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the zoom-in on the front lines in T20.

[larryfulkerson]

While I'm doing my moves I'm listening to You Tube videos and I found one about
the band AC/DC and I've found it helps keep me awake after I've been at it
for a while. Any AC/DC fans out there?

Thunderstruck:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2AC41dglnM

[Nicholas Bell]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
Do TOAW eastern front scenarios have an element that works against SOviet runaway defences evacuating everything in the west and build a wall of steel somewhere between the Daugava-Dniepr line and the Leningrad/Moscow/Voronesh/Rostov line?
Because if the russian player doesn't let the huge pockets happen, the Red Army will be much stronger than historical come fall 1941.

I believe there are minor incentives, but there is no sudden-death victory forcing the Soviet player to defend forward or counterattack per Stalin's directive. But more importantly, D21 is designed to be played against the Soviet AI, which is why you are seeing what you see. Elmer (the AI) is not as good on defense as offensive, as he doesn't know when to retreat until he lacks supply. And then sometimes not even then. So large pockets do occur - check out some of the other completed AARs.

What you will also see in these AARs is none run historically. Those that run out have all been Axis victories. The ability of the player to know exact dates and effects of mud and winter, when supply will decline and increase, rail conversation rates, etc make it simply for the player to avoid the historical German mistakes. Inevitably the Germans are stronger in 1942 and able to pocket/grind down the Soviet AI who just gets weaker (although never gives up!).

Of course there would be a totally different outcome against a human player.

[larryfulkerson]

The ability of the player to know exact dates and effects of mud and winter, when supply will decline and increase, rail conversation rates, etc make it simply for the player to avoid the historical German mistakes. Inevitably the Germans are stronger in 1942 and able to pocket/grind down the Soviet AI who just gets weaker (although never gives up!).

Gosh, when you put it that way I don't feel so superior to the Soviets anymore. But you're right.

[MikeJ19]

Larry,

I'm not much of an AC/DC fan. However, I do like how you play and write AARs...

[DanNeely]

ORIGINAL: Nicholas Bell

What you will also see in these AARs is none run historically. Those that run out have all been Axis victories. The ability of the player to know exact dates and effects of mud and winter, when supply will decline and increase, rail conversation rates, etc make it simply for the player to avoid the historical German mistakes. Inevitably the Germans are stronger in 1942 and able to pocket/grind down the Soviet AI who just gets weaker (although never gives up!).

That's not true, there've been a number that were abandoned in late 41/early 42 when it was clear that the Axis player had fallen significantly behind historical progress levels.

Humans however can just keep trying until they eventually do get it right; more and more practice does eventually pay off. eg I think it wasn't until try #3 that Larry managed to get significantly ahead of the historical power curve.

The longest running AARs were also done under older versions of the scenario where Elmers defenses of Leningrad and Sevastopol had major problems, punching them out before the 1st winter is a lot harder now than it was before.

[700851McCall]

That's true in my case. In my first attempt I played up to turn 99 but it had become a stagmire and I was unable to make further progress on any front, I took Sevastopol but failed to take Leningrad, Moscow or Rostov and had little chance of doing so in 1942.

There's no way the PO would ever have captured Berlin by '45, but even with all the advantages mentioned I did fail to beat it on first play through. And the historical Germans only got to have one play through.

[larryfulkerson]

There's no way the PO would ever have captured Berlin by '45

Enquiring minds want to know how you figured this out....you have some kind of proof or
just your best estimate based on how they had been performing previously or somebody
told you that or you found a message in a bottle that said as much or you had a dream
in which the game went to the end and the PO was helpless or what.

I imagine that the PO wouldn't be able to capture Berlin by the end of the game but
I've determined that we don't have much proof of that. I'll have to let a PO v PO
game go that long to see what happens. As a test.

[700851McCall]

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson

There's no way the PO would ever have captured Berlin by '45

Enquiring minds want to know how you figured this out....you have some kind of proof or
just your best estimate based on how they had been performing previously or somebody
told you that or you found a message in a bottle that said as much or you had a dream
in which the game went to the end and the PO was helpless or what.

I imagine that the PO wouldn't be able to capture Berlin by the end of the game but
I've determined that we don't have much proof of that. I'll have to let a PO v PO
game go that long to see what happens. As a test.

LOL

I'd have given you 50-1 on the PO doing it, is that good enough?

I'd played it like Monty, slow cautious advance. But unlike Monty I had failed to plan ahead regarding supply - both mine and the enemey's. Those rail lines and rail junctions are critical. The combination of both errors meant I failed to win but had preserved my forces intact enough to stop the PO making any serious progress.

The PO is not aggressive enough I think. He does not play enough of a war of attrition. If he could be made more aggressive I think the scenario would be very hard to beat even on repeated play. And he might then have a chance at Berlin.

[larryfulkerson]

If he could be made more aggressive I think the scenario would be very hard to beat even on repeated play.

I think there's a way to change the strategic bias so that the PO acts like it's Berserk but I don't remember where it is in the editor now or how to change it.

EDIT: I looked at the events and voila...that's it. So you can add an event to set the Soviet Strategic Bias
and I've done that to a scenario and I'm playtesting it now.

[TPOO]

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson

If he could be made more aggressive I think the scenario would be very hard to beat even on repeated play.

I think there's a way to change the strategic bias so that the PO acts like it's Berserk but I don't remember where it is in the editor now or how to change it.

EDIT: I looked at the events and voila...that's it. So you can add an event to set the Soviet Strategic Bias
and I've done that to a scenario and I'm playtesting it now.

In this scenario the PO does have events that utilize the Strategic Bias settings and is set to get more aggressive as time goes by. It mainly determines how the PO will advance or retreat. Cautious settings the PO is more likely to retreat, Berserk settings the PO is more likely to attack and advance. You also have to use formation orders for loss tolerance to make the PO really aggressive. The way the game engine reads strategic bias, the weaker the German Player is the more the PO will utilize the aggressive setting. If the German player is very strong the PO may not act on the bias setting.

If the German player does not take historical production centers on time plus Leningrad and Moscow plus additional non-historic production centers the PO will do significant damage to the Axis by 1944 if not sooner.

Whether or not the PO can take Berlin or not is another thing because any German player at this point would stop doing stupid stand your ground orders from the Fuhrer and try to set up a better retreating defense than what the Germans did historically.

Larry's challenge in this scenario in order to become Wargamer of the Year is to make it to 1943 in better shape than the Germans historically. This version should have all kinks worked out and be a real challenge which Larry has assured me he is up for.[:)]

[larryfulkerson]

Larry's challenge in this scenario in order to become Wargamer of the Year is to make it to 1943 in better shape than the Germans [did] historically. This version should have all kinks worked out and be a real challenge which Larry has assured me he is up for.

That sounds like a challenge. WotY is pretty up there. Wow. Practice makes perfect I guess. I'll give it the old industrial college try.