Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: Allied subs are present (they've managed a few hits the past three days but against nothing larger than riff-raff).

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: Seal scores three hits against this cripple. So the silent service scores against something larger than riff-raff.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: It's daylight phase now. NavSearch reports enemy TFs all over the place. And, most disconcerting to me, my Fletcher TF is a hex SE of Shikuka - if she doesn't come back during the turn, she can't replenish. That's critical.

Erik's cruisers come again, this time facing minesweepers configured as a combat TF, meant to address enemy riff-raff.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: Astoria/Nashville deal effectively with a lone DD.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: Sub whittling riff-raff.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: Astoria/Nashville TF still going strong - all four enemy DD show HF/HD.

But will the good guys have any ammo left when the big boys come calling?

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: The Fletchers finish the job. What's really encouraging is that this takes place at Shikuka - the Fletchers can replenish, unless they leave the hex again, which is a possibility in this cauldron.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: PT TF working on riff-raff. To this point in the turn (still early), I don't think I've lost very many PTs. If that trend continues, I have some hope of keeping some kind of defense together for coming turn or turns.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/44

Battle of Shikuka: A nice avoidance of danger here, but darn it, Astoria TF is a hex from Shikuka. This bodes very bad for tomorrow - she'll have no ammo left.

[Canoerebel]

The first thing I checked in opening the next-turn file was the Astoria TF's location. It's indeed a hex SE of Shikuka, which bodes ill. Erik might not connect all the dots there, or his TFs may be too low on ammo to take advantage of the situation....but Astoria TF has 27% ammo and 0 torps.

As for the balance of the combat TFs, they remain at Shikuka and are fully replenished. Santa Fe has 32/42/7 damage, so I'll keep her disbanded in port. One other DD was reduced to 25 knots, so she'll join my CA Boston TF, which consists of walking wounded - the hospital-bound in Zulu. Maybe there's an Ezekiel in the bunch. (Boston has 72 SYS damage but can make 27 knots - I wouldn't use her if the situation wasn't dire beyond belief.)

[Canoerebel]

With the notable exception of Astoria TF's location woes, today was a pretty significant victory for the Allies at Shikuka. Withstood a not-quite-everything onslaught, administered much more damage than they took, and possibly lowered enemy ammo stores and small combat ship numbers sufficiently to persuade Erik to pull back. That's what I'm hoping for but not what I'm planning for.

[jwolf]

Awesome! Thanks for the presentation. You must have had sweat dripping from your brow as you watched that turn play out! Do you have any good recon on where his BBs are or might be?

[Canoerebel]

His BBs and other combat TFs are two hexes SE of Shikuka. They've been in that vicinity the past three days. They haven't expended much ammo but his riff-raff and smaller DD/CL TFs have been attritioned or are low on ammo. So does he pull the trigger or not? I don't have much left to defend Shikuka. But I think Erik's in pretty bad shape at the moment. If he attacks, it's out of sheer frustration and desperation at this point.

On the day, I lost 10 PT boats (more than I had expected). I lost a handful of LSTs and xAKs each. I don't think I lost any combat ships.

Erik's confirmed losses today: 10 DDs, CL Oi, six E-class, one sub (plus an AO down at Sabang).

During the First Full Moon Phase Attack last month, Erik lost about 25 DDs. I think he's lost another 15 or so this time.

He can still overwhelm my defenses at Shikuka, no doubt. But he's bleeding pretty profusely and it won't be long before "the cavalry" arrives.

[Canoerebel]

This has been a crazy campaign, with measures and countermeasures and measures within other measures, etc.

In Moon PHase One, Erik sank three BBs, several CAs, and wiped out almost 100 B-29s plus alot of invaluable fighters.

But he wasn't able to overcome the final redoubt, leaving it alone for a month to recover and prepare for another onslaught. And he lost two CAs, 7 CLs, 25 DDs, nearly as many subs, and lots of aircraft and rirr-raff, thus reducing his ability to fight against the Allies later.

He comes again, in Moon Phase Two, more tentatively. He takes considerable losses at sea (1 CL, 15 DDs, plus useful riff-raff). The core of his combat ships are fairly low on ammo, and he's probably reduced his ability to effectively deal with Death Star, should it arrive.

He's almost overwhelmed the Allied defenses again...but I think he's concerned about his ship losses and ammo stores.

He knows Death Star may be out there somewhere, but I don't think he knows where or just how close.

[Canoerebel]

Upon further consideration, I'm going to do it.

I'm going to transfer a lot of strike aircraft and fighters to Shikuka and hope for a big strike vs. KB or IJN BBs.

They may choose riff-raff, but riff-raff seems to be pulling out. And riff-raff will always be an issue in these waters, so seeking a carrier battle isn't a better solution.

The biggest factor may be that aircraft transferring won't have enough "points" left to fly strikes tomorrow. BUt I already have 900 fighters and perhaps 200 strike aircraft at Shikuka.

[BBfanboy]

I think Eric's intention might have been to destroy more B-29s because you get a limited number of them. He seemed to wait until your B-29s came back to Shikuka to send his waves of riff-raff and followed them a few days later with bombardment-capable ships. I think you should fly out your B-29s until DS is back.

[Canoerebel]

There aren't any B-29s at Shikuka. I moved them all to Adak. Some have now moved forward to Shemya, from which they're bombing the Kuriles. I think Erik can see the bomber vectors and knows that only the Liberators are based at Shikuka.

[Canoerebel]

Configuring things for the October 2 turn. Lots of moving parts.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

His BBs and other combat TFs are two hexes SE of Shikuka. They've been in that vicinity the past three days. They haven't expended much ammo but his riff-raff and smaller DD/CL TFs have been attritioned or are low on ammo. So does he pull the trigger or not? I don't have much left to defend Shikuka. But I think Erik's in pretty bad shape at the moment. If he attacks, it's out of sheer frustration and desperation at this point.

On the day, I lost 10 PT boats (more than I had expected). I lost a handful of LSTs and xAKs each. I don't think I lost any combat ships.

Erik's confirmed losses today: 10 DDs, CL Oi, six E-class, one sub (plus an AO down at Sabang).

During the First Full Moon Phase Attack last month, Erik lost about 25 DDs. I think he's lost another 15 or so this time.

He can still overwhelm my defenses at Shikuka, no doubt. But he's bleeding pretty profusely and it won't be long before "the cavalry" arrives.

This is what killed my chances after Sumatra. The DD attrition cannot be handled by Japan. You are winning by doing this. Pretty simple and brutal math...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Upon further consideration, I'm going to do it.

I'm going to transfer a lot of strike aircraft and fighters to Shikuka and hope for a big strike vs. KB or IJN BBs.

They may choose riff-raff, but riff-raff seems to be pulling out. And riff-raff will always be an issue in these waters, so seeking a carrier battle isn't a better solution.

The biggest factor may be that aircraft transferring won't have enough "points" left to fly strikes tomorrow. BUt I already have 900 fighters and perhaps 200 strike aircraft at Shikuka.

I was going to comment before about strike planes choosing riff-raff.

Typically this means the DL on the bigger targets was not high enough.