Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: Allied LBA elect to go after KB as opposed to the enemy BB/CA stuff. Enemy CAP is stout but not uber. I have a lot (ALOT) of fighters and 1EB at Shikuka. Do they get savaged? Do they get through?

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: Weird package with only a few strike aircraft. A couple survive to launch. No hits.

[Canoerebel]

Escorting fighters seem like mincemeat in AE. Or is it the way I handle them?

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: Funny, the ship interactions were accurate - no sync bug. But I think there is some sync issues with the air attacks on KB. So I'm going to summarize.

There are many strikes going in. Escorts and strike planes get savaged but gradually wear down the Zero CAP. My losses are very heavy.

The first strike to score is some unescorted Helldivers that find that tough CL TF without CAP (I would've like more of these!).

This is the second CL sunk in two days, and makes about 9 in the past month.

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: Brutal losses. Marianas Turkey Shoot in reverse. I don't look forward to looking at the Air Loss totals when I open the turn.

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka:

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: I'm not showing all the packages. They all look pretty much like these.

My thoughts at this point:

1. I'm glad I only committed about 1/3rd of my carrier air (the rest being LBA).
2. Will enough survive to fill each flattop fully?

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: Terrible losses. This looked like good odds when it started.

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka: The enemy CAP is finally tuckered out, making me think, "Darn, I should have committed more, after all!"

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44

Shikuka:

[Canoerebel]

I haven't finished the replay yet, but that's the end of the CR results.

A violent, epic battle.

My defenses at Shikuka are slim now - perhaps six to eight Fletchers remain, along with a handful of PT TFs.

Erik's TFs should be out of ammo. I think he has to withdraw to replenish before he can come back and apply the coup-de-grace.

Death Star will arrive on scene by then, I think.

He's basically won the Battle of Shikuka at this point, or would if Death Star isn't able to arrive and restore order. I think it will, but no guarantees.

But at what a cost for Erik. I think he's lost 50+ DDs, 25+ subs, 9 CLs, two CAs, one BB. He's had alot more damaged, including two carriers likely out of action and a third slowed to some degree.

How badly has this reduced his ability to face Death Star? He's such a good and experienced player that I may still be overmatched. But imagine if DS had faced the Japanese OOB that existed 32 days ago as opposed to what's out there now.

[Anachro]

Just dropping in to say I have been enjoying your AAR immensely and look forward to see how you overcome the onslaught. My only wish is that obvert could update his AAR more often, but I can imagine he is busy with real life and his other Lowpe AAR + any other PBEMs he might be playing.

Regarding the strikes on KB, the various different waves coming in separately unescorted or with spotty amounts of escorts (and the ensuing high number of aircraft losses) very much reminds me of Midway, even if not as decisive. As for Soryu, it might yet burn up with fires and heavy damage. Still, I wouldn't go so far as to say the Battle of Shikuka has been won by him; it appears to me more like a stalemate that you will soon overcome. He cannot evict you from there and you should be able to increasingly make use of it as DS takes control and attrition hurts his ability to prevent you from basing your bomber there. My only question is your expectations for continuing a strat bombing campaign and how that might have been affected by your recent losses.

Nontheless, the surface forces of the IJN have been degraded throughout this battle, but remain a decent threat. KB is still there, even if its usefulness as this stage of the War is minor. I think you are focusing too much on KB to your detriment and Shikuka has further been too much of a focus. You have allowed him to concentrate his forces in a manner that seriously caused setback and I wonder if time might have been better spent while this was going on by making inroads elsewhere in his empire.

[Canoerebel]

I understand why you and others would think that.

I am making inroads elsewhere, using minimal assets but making solid progress. So that's fine.

But Shikuka means everything. I couldn't afford to leave it to itself any more than Erik can afford to ignore it. If it stands (and I think it will) it's the decisive ground of the war - Guadalcanal on Steroids, if you will.

It's the ground where Erik threw everything at me and never quite managed to win. He bled himself badly while I (in effect) used mostly surplus material. Going forward, I can hammer him with 4EB and (if I take control of the seas in the next month or three), I can invade his heartland. He'll have a hard time opposing the entire Allied naval and air OOB. Last, but not least, this theater will dovetail with Russia when activation takes place in 10 months.

Fighting elsewhere would've been counterproductive. I've grabbed Erik by the ears. I have to hold on until the wolf tires enough to grab him by the throat or by the dangly bits.

[Anachro]

You are probably right. At this stage, you are committed and it's looking increasingly like he won't evict you as I said. The time to decide to hit elsewhere was probably a month or two ago if you were going to do it. With all that has happened, it would make no sense to do so now. I wonder how many DDs he has left and that will certainly limit him, but with parts of the KB still there, as well as his BBs and LBA, I think you are still in for a period of attritional warfare (but that's the type of war the Allies are far more advantaged in than the Japanese so maybe that IS the best strategy).

[Canoerebel]

Given his experience and ability, he'll be tough. Like I mentioned above, I still might be overmatched here. But I feel a lot more confident entering into the next phase than I did a month ago.

P.S. The sync bug version of the aerial attack was depressingly victorious - many of his carriers sunk, another BB, several CAs and CLs. The only thing that means to me is that the plan had a chance to succeed far beyond how it did.

P.P.S. CL Astoria II arrived in San Fran today. What timing! CA Astoria went down today but got a big assist in the sinking of BB Fuso.