Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

10/3/44

Shikuka: This time Allied fighter losses are considerable.

I'll pull back my strike aircraft and fighters tomorrow, concentrating on the defense of Shikuka and looking for a way to minimize the chances of DS reacting into peril beyond its capabilities.

[jwolf]

Keep in mind that along with the Unryu, the Japanese lost 45 strike planes going down with the ship as reported above. That helps to even out the air losses, although admittedly your guys did pay a heavy price.

[JohnDillworth]

Hi Dan,
Been in and out of this AAR for a while but could use a recap. Seems there are not many big guys afloat. Where are you with Capital ships? What's coming on line and out of the repair yards in the next couple of months? I presume you are at least OK with DD's and get about one a week at this stage of the war
thanks

[Canoerebel]

The Allied naval OBB is in good shape. Death Star - carriers and escorts - is very strong.

Of the damaged CVs, only Lexington remains in port. She needs about three weeks. BB Massachusetts needs four months. CA Cumberland needs a couple of days. Other than that, the yards are empty.

BB Wisconsin is on map and inbound.

Erik's naval OOB is also strong, though not quite as much as it was two weeks ago. He and my predecessors were involved in kind of a false war - not many ships sunk, not many planes downed. Erik has been withdrawing methodically to his inner MLR. He's strong but so are the Allies.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/3/44

Shikuka: The largest and most effective strike sinks troop transports. SigInt three or four days ago reported a Rocket Gun unit inbound to Onnekotan - perhaps this unit.

That looks like a base force to me, or perhaps an AF Bn. Or a mix of, say, an HQ and an AF Bn. But the 2 xAKL that are doing the transporting (potentially the 2x CM's also, but their capacity is 250/350 Troop/Cargo or thereabouts) tells me it's almost certainly just an AF Bn. Why? Because those are the units that contain: non-combat squads, engineers, and a couple of guns. They do also contain combat squads, but if it was a rebuilt unit it may not have been fully replaced. I wouldn't do it because the micromanagement would be too intense, but theoretically a Japanese player could turn replacements on for AF Bn units (both IJNAF and IJAAF) but then turn on Stockpile for the relevant infantry squad, and then flip those switches back when they want to replace some infantry squads in combat units.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

On the day, Erik lost a CV, CL, DD, and a variety of riff-raff.

I think I lost one or two PTs and a crippled APD. That was it.

But digging out Unryu cost a lot of aircraft. Was it worth it?

As the kids say (or said 15 years ago), hell to the yes.

[adarbrauner]

Heroes of the day were the many surface fleets which prevented the airfield from being disabled; not understood by itself, I think;

[crsutton]

Your plane losses can be made up. His carrier no..That pretty much makes it a win for you. Are you using your VR squadrons to replenish your carriers? This would really help you.

[Canoerebel]

The plane losses were LBA. So no difficulty in drawing replacements.

I'm not using CVEs in replenishment roles on this mission. There are limited circumstances in which I find that useful, but as a general rule I prefer CVEs as additional carriers, especially in CAP roles. When, as here, I'm close to LBA, can readily bring in additional aircraft, and anticipate that any potential clash would be quick and decisive, security takes priority of sustainability - because sustainability isn't a factor.

[Anachro]

I'm not going to castigate you for your tactics, Canoerebel. I always enjoy your AARs and recognize this is a game and you are simply combating Obvert's tactics in equal measure. I do not fault you for it.

Nonetheless, I wonder if the US would have the political willpower and its populace the lenience to allow so many ships and men to be sacrificed in the way they have been in the battles around Shikuka. I have no doubt that the Japanese would have been absolutely willing to sacrifice their men in such a manner. I guess the question would be if the admiral that allowed so many men to die in such a way would have been sacked and court-martialed. Probably a pointless debate about factors outside the game, but something to think about. I wonder if this could be represented by upping the point values of Allied troops, ships and planes.

Now for the game going forward itself, what are your plans going forward once Shikuka is re-consolidated? Will you simply try to do a strat bombing campaign to eke out the VPs for a win? What will you do if Obvert is able to inflict unacceptable casualties on your remaining strat bombers?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

I'm not going to castigate you for your tactics, Canoerebel. I always enjoy your AARs and recognize this is a game and you are simply combating Obvert's tactics in equal measure. I do not fault you for it.

Nonetheless, I wonder if the US would have the political willpower and its populace the lenience to allow so many ships and men to be sacrificed in the way they have been in the battles around Shikuka. I have no doubt that the Japanese would have been absolutely willing to sacrifice their men in such a manner. I guess the question would be if the admiral that allowed so many men to die in such a way would have been sacked and court-martialed. Probably a pointless debate about factors outside the game, but something to think about. I wonder if this could be represented by upping the point values of Allied troops, ships and planes.

Now for the game going forward itself, what are your plans going forward once Shikuka is re-consolidated? Will you simply try to do a strat bombing campaign to eke out the VPs for a win? What will you do if Obvert is able to inflict unacceptable casualties on your remaining strat bombers?

Hey, if the Soviet Union could have a Georgian dictator, why not the US! Absolute power must be used without pity! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

It depends on the leadership.

If the Allies had somehow managed to get caught in a box canyon like this one, and if the Japanese had overwhelming power, what do you think a leader like George Patton would have done? I think he would have used every asset at hand in every way possible, especially if it seemed that just a few days might buy enough time for the cavalry to arrive.

What if the leader were Archer Vandegrift or Joe Stillwell?

What if it was a man of less willpower and resolve?

In these circumstances, I think the Allies would have done just the same. Remember, this isn't 1944 with a vanishing Japanese air force and navy. This is 1944 with an uber Japanese air force and a strong navy and the Allies starting far behind and facing the most desperate of situations.

There's no doubt what a committed leader would have done.

ORIGINAL: Anachro

I'm not going to castigate you for your tactics, Canoerebel. I always enjoy your AARs and recognize this is a game and you are simply combating Obvert's tactics in equal measure. I do not fault you for it.

Nonetheless, I wonder if the US would have the political willpower and its populace the lenience to allow so many ships and men to be sacrificed in the way they have been in the battles around Shikuka. I have no doubt that the Japanese would have been absolutely willing to sacrifice their men in such a manner. I guess the question would be if the admiral that allowed so many men to die in such a way would have been sacked and court-martialed. Probably a pointless debate about factors outside the game, but something to think about. I wonder if this could be represented by upping the point values of Allied troops, ships and planes.

Now for the game going forward itself, what are your plans going forward once Shikuka is re-consolidated? Will you simply try to do a strat bombing campaign to eke out the VPs for a win? What will you do if Obvert is able to inflict unacceptable casualties on your remaining strat bombers?

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

Shikuka: The fourth opens with Death Star closing on the Kuriles and one of it's narrow, dangerous passes. Erik has vectored his subs. So there may be a lot of this:

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

Shikuka: Followed immediately by this: Fanshaw Bay takes two hits and reports heavy damage. I-22 is confirmed sunk.

Fanshaw Bay is probably a cripple. She'll detach, assuming she can still make way, and head for the Aleutians (or, if only moderately damaged, perhaps to West Coast).

I think DS managed to sneak by the first line of Erik's defenses, but his subs are closing in rapidly now. And thank goodness for the 25 or so that he's lost at Shikuka.

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

SHikuka: A good interaction.

As this turn is beginning to unfold, I can see multiple subs in each gap between the Kuriles islands. I'll have to decide whether to load up a gap of choice with ASW before forcing it, or whether to go ahead and force it.

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

Shikuka: Allied night-bombers from Toyohara sortie in numbers - perhaps ten strike packages in all. At least four or five enemy CVs targeted, most near Sapporo, but Soryu is limping at Wakkanai and showing fires/heavy damage messages.

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

Shikuka: Heavy Fires/Heavy Damage, it seems.

So Unryu gone, Soryu must be crippled, and Akagi took two torps, so probably at least moderate damage.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/4/44

SHikuka: A good interaction.

As this turn is beginning to unfold, I can see multiple subs in each gap between the Kuriles islands. I'll have to decide whether to load up a gap of choice with ASW before forcing it, or whether to go ahead and force it.

It has been my experience that putting more than two pure ASW TFs in a hex seems to freeze the AI from conducting ASW attacks - like it can't parse the spacing of the TFs/detection interference or something. Sprint your carriers through after first sending a TF of supply ships at full speed.

Edit: Highly doubt Fanshaw Bay will survive two torp hits, even if she is one of the bigger CVEs.

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

Shikuka: Hit hard.

[Canoerebel]

10/4/44

Shikuka: A DMS takes a hit and will probably sink. I don't have enough of these left.