Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: Minesweeping commences but a number of ships hit mines, including an APA.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Shikuka: Shepherds vs. wolves.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: An unusually high number of messages like this one: Kates, Jakes, Helens on search going down. He's working an angle here - probably an all-out air strike or enabling better submarine intercept.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: Corsairs in numbers sweep Onnekotan, Ketoi and Uruppu without finding any CAP.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: The first of about four raids vs. Onnekotan airfield. This has been Erik's most-used field over the past few months, though not so much lately. I figured he might load up here, so the Allied raids were preceded by heavy sweeps and accompanied by escorts. The raids are effective but not overpowering.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: Death Star vs. Jawas (riff-raff).

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: More enemy search planes downed in the afternoon phase. Two search Seagulls are downed by CAP over Paramushiro. Erik hasn't used that airfield much, so that's one of the first places I'll check out when I open the next-turn file.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Marcus: Norms and Jakes did some housecleaning around Marcus, picking off a few more LSTs.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: I was a bit concerned when there wasn't any amphibious activity in the early phase, but things begin to unfold here at the end of the turn.

Ketoi's defenses have some teeth.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: 4th Marines coming ashore. With prep at 100% and a 100%-prepped Amphib Force HQ, I didn't expect much disruption. Paying the price for not having all those gun-suppressing LCI(g)s along.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: Defenses include 71st Div.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: Enemy defenses consist of one division, two brigades, one regiment.

Overall, Allied units are ashore with good raw AV numbers. I don't know about disruption or fatigue yet.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Perth: Worth showing because this base is worth a lot of VP to Japan. The campaign in Oz has been on a shoestring, by both sides. Erik long ago withdrew most of his units. HIs bases, and an occasional naval guard unit, are falling one by one.

[BBfanboy]

Interesting that the Japanese did not suffer a supply malus at Perth.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44

Ketoi: Overall picture at Ketoi. It's going to take time and full application of force to reduce this stronghold.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Interesting that the Japanese did not suffer a supply malus at Perth.

I guess he left enough to allow the unit to fight. It wouldn't take much to support a naval guard unit.

[Canoerebel]

It's past midnight, I've about finished issuing orders....and I'm fixed on the thought: "What if Erik loads up all his airfields with strike aircraft, kamikazes, fighters, and rolls the dice on a big hit?"

He'd lose a lot of aircraft, but right now I have Death Star in one hex and The Herd in another. Setting are configured to allow CAP, but perhaps not on the scale necessary.

So I'm toying with pulling The Herd back a hex, joining it with Death Star, and seeing what happens. But if nothing happens, then I have to go through the same checkdown every turn. Hmm. I'm not sure.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/14/44

Ketoi: Overall picture at Ketoi. It's going to take time and full application of force to reduce this stronghold.

8th Divvy, Changi rations equivalent.

[Canoerebel]

It's two o'clock and I'm still fretting things.

Remember a few turns back when I mentioned it looked like Erik wanted to clear my subs from a path. And remember that we noted a carrier TF moving south along the Japanese coast? And this turn Erik loaded up Paramushiro with fighters. These could be unrelated and unremarkable, or he might be working a place to throw his carriers north towards Death Star, seeking a reaction, while also loading up all his airfields with fighters and bombers, hoping for a mega strike on DS and/or The Herd.

I have toyed with three or four plans: stay in place and weather the storm, consolidate most of The Herd with DS and weather the storm, move all ships back towards Shikuka, and move all ships into the Pacific, towards Paramushrio.

Ulitimately, I've chosen to do something unusual, I think. DS and The Herd will combine and move south into the Pacific, towards the direction from which an IJN carrier force would come. This will accomplish a few things: (1) perhaps confuse or negate any carefully laid plan that Erik might have come up with; and (2) if nothing happens, the vast host of empties is in the Pacific and can break for home the day after tomorrow.

I like this option because it allows me to accomplish something worthwhile in the event all of this is a figment of an overactive and tired imagination.

[BBfanboy]

CR, in 1944 the firepower of US units is much better than corresponding Japanese Units. Don't let the relative AV of the units be the only consideration. I would rest my units with high disruption for a day or two and bombard to attrit the Japanese. Then try a DA and see what the real comparison of strength is.

As for the Supply Required=8, situation - remember that supply requirements are based on usage over the last few days, so when a small fragment landed and used 8 supply on the first day of landings, that was all the AI had to go on to calculate needs.