Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

There is no earthly way Erik would send a carrier force after my empties, right? with Death Star right there on the periphery, able to easily place itself between KB and The Herd, he'd be crazy. I'm nearly certain I can count on him not being crazy. But the possiblity that he would be willing to take a crazy gamble can't be entirely discounted.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/44

Ketoi: Modest 1:1 losses in the air today. The Mavis transports intercepted at Ketoi are the most significant casualty.

[Canoerebel]

Like the Grinch, I'm "puzzling and puzzling, until my puzzler was sore."

I do not have a solid hunch about what Erik's doing with KB. I can come up with plausible scenarios, but each one of them has weaknesses. The one that doesn't is that he was intentionally seeking a carrier battle, through reaction. But the flaws with that theory is he'd be pretty crazy to go up against full Death Star (wouldn't he?). Besides that, if his plan was to provoke a rection and battle, I'd have expected him to load up his airfields so that he bombers could hit Allies landing at Ketoi while DS was far away. So no theory is sensible. Except the right one, whatever that is.

But my spidey senses were right. I was connecting the dots right. Erik did send a carrier or carriers into the Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/44

Ketoi: Taking a chance tomorrow, though I don't think it's a big one.

The opening deliberate attack will take place at Ketoi. It's critical to open the day with strong bombardments. In order to riks the big ships, DS needs to remain on station here rather than sprinting south to protect the herd of empties.

So the herd will scatter and sprint and hope that I'm right in my deductions.

[BBfanboy]

That CV TF is only 8 hexes from Kushiro. Makes me think he is trying to lure you into a KB/LBA trap.

Either that or he is going hunting for your carriers that initially supported the Marcus raid.

EDIT to add: Third notion - I don't see many of his subs up around the Kuriles any more. Perhaps he moved them down between DS and his CV TF to get away from most of your ASW while being in position to hit DS if it reacts?

[Canoerebel]

Could be. Perhaps he has his main carrier force midway between that one carrier and Kurshiro. Then he could uber CAP that one carrier from KB, while KB drew LRCAP from land. Or something like that?

[palioboy2]

Or he has a bead on the empties leaving and plans on paralleling their course. If I was him I would move my CVs in a direction that would leave them within striking distance of the transports but out of range of a DS dash. This would effectively fork you. You would have to decide to either

A) flank south with DS through waters that possibly have enemy subs. And end the turn protecting the herd but not within range to attack KB. This would leave your heavy bombardments exposed and would delay attacks while he flies in troops.

B) turn the herd around so everything is protected by slows your operational pace by trapping he empties inside the Kuriles.

C) Leave DS to protect the bombardment forces but expose the herd. Which will eventually move out of range of a DS Sprint and allow him to attack.

[Barb]

Or the TF you have detected could be the same ASW TF your subs are tangling with. And the CV reported is just a fog of war report on an E.

But if you think there are carriers - you should postpone your Ketoi-jima bombardment for a turn while sending Death Star to the South-East for 4-8 hexes for a turn to get your merchants another day - or to interpose it between Kido Butai and your merchants. If the threat fails to materialize, you can just simply move back to Ketoi-jima next turn with your herd safe. Even if his TF sprints at full speed directly east, it will probably end up somewhere around your Death Star - away from his bases. But do not leave any meaningful ships around Ketoi-jima - either send them to Shikuka or take them with Death Star.

[zuluhour]

reading both sides, love the epic struggle here.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/16/44

Ketoi: Bombardment results inconclusive.

What is the stacking limit and how over stacked are you?

I'm not looking to criticize the over stack as you know I am a proponent of temporary over stacking fro the task of taking an objective.

I've learned that when heavily over stacked and in need of rest it is best to rest without bombarding.

Yes, it gives your opponent a rest as well from morale and disruption that daily bombardments serve to keep high, but when heavily over stacked, even with significant advantage in number of guns you will find yourself on eth losing end of the bombardments.

This is one of the downsides to heavy over stacking. Troops really packed in take heavy casualties under bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

Decisions were made and turn was sent before midnight last night, so I didn't have a chance to consider some of your posts made thereafter. But thanks for thoughts and suggestions.

I elected to proceed on my hunch. The Herd is scattering a bit, some proceeding at flank speed, and mostly undefended. Death Star is moving in close to Ketoi. Two good BB TFs will bombard. The ground troops will attack. This should give me an inkling of what I'm in for.

Hans, that's good information you provided. I've noticed before that bombarding did seem to impede ground troops from recovering fatigue, etc. I'll give it more thought in light of your thoughts.

Ketoi has a stacking limit of 60k. I have 95k present.

Reinforcements are available at Shikuka. I'm inclined to bring something in (at least a RCT) so that I can use all those effective LCI(G) ships. Would they fire if embedded with supply LSTs, or do I need to be unloading troops (I think they will, but you may know for certain).

[HansBolter]

You aren't completely resting if you are bombarding as you suffer the enemies counter bombardment.

When you're heavily over stacked that counter bombardment will also likely lead to you suffering higher actual casualties than the enemy.


I've also noticed that heavily over stacked ports suffer brutale casualties to naval bombardments.

I mentioned that in my current game the AI stacked 19 LCUs on Iwo so I'm switching invasion prep to Chicha.

I've been making regular bombardment runs on Iwo from Agrihan and the LCU casualties are tremendous.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is no earthly way Erik would send a carrier force after my empties, right? with Death Star right there on the periphery, able to easily place itself between KB and The Herd, he'd be crazy. I'm nearly certain I can count on him not being crazy. But the possiblity that he would be willing to take a crazy gamble can't be entirely discounted.

Unless he thinks they're unprotected, maybe.

[Canoerebel]

He might send subs and DDs, but if that rascal evaluates the situation and reaches this conclusion: "Death Star is right there, able to interpose between Dan's merchantmen and my combat ships, but I think I'll take a chance and commit my capital ships"....well, I'm facing an opponent from a different solar system.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He might send subs and DDs, but if that rascal evaluates the situation and reaches this conclusion: "Death Star is right there, able to interpose between Dan's merchantmen and my combat ships, but I think I'll take a chance and commit my capital ships"....well, I'm facing an opponent from a different solar system.

Last I saw he is hurting plenty for SCTF ships. You have sunk a passel of DDs and Cruisers and badly hurt his BBs in several clashes. He is aggressive enough to go raiding but most of his raiders are in the yards. Can you show us an IJN sunk ships list of CLs and up size?

[Canoerebel]

I'll start with carriers. I don't know how "legit" the list is for ships reported sunk before I stepped in on March 1, 1944, but probably pretty accurate, given longevity on this list.

I know Unryu went down a few weeks ago. Katsuragi didn't go down but I think Soryu did. I'm nearly certain one carrier went down in addition to Unryu.

[Canoerebel]

I'm 99.8% sure that Yamashiro didn't go under.

I think Erik's BBs are in decent shape - they didn't suffer much damage in the intense fighting around Shikuka, except for Fuso, which was confirmed sunk.

[Canoerebel]

The list of cruisers is pretty suspect.

Tone just took one TT, but she should be fine. Takao is afloat, probably moderately damaged in the Shikuka siege. In place of those two, perhaps other cruisers went down...or not.

I'm guesstimating Erik's lost 9 CAs with perhaps three in the yards.

[Canoerebel]

I think Erik lost at least 10 CLs at Shikuka in September and October, as this list shows. Several others took heavy damage.

[Canoerebel]

Youngest Son and I are heading to the Appalachian Trail early, early in the morning. We'll be up in the Old Dominion State for four days.

One of the pleasures of hiking is the hours and hours of time to think - letting my mind wander, thinking of the profound, routine, creative, or whatever. There's a Scripture verse that encourages "Be still and know that I am God." It seems hard to be really still today, given electronics and busy schedules, but on backpacking trips it's pretty much long hours of walking, making it easy to "be still" even when I'm sweating, aching and wishing I was back home.

Sometime Tuesday, we'll finish. Then we'll make the long drive south from Virginia through Tennessee and back into Georgia, deep into the night. Then my thoughts will turn to this game and the complex situation in NoPac, October 1944.

Y'all have a good weekend.