Notes from a Small Island

[BBfanboy]

Can't DS get between KB and his ports and chase him all the way to North America? Too hard to track him?

[Canoerebel]

That's a possibility, especially if he used fuel in a flank speed run (I don't know that yet). But, yes, the downside to that plan is that it's hard to catch a fast TF that doesn't want to be caught. It comes down to dice rolls as to whether he goes north or south or whatever. Am I better off just staying where I am and focusing on the center of the vortex or is it worthwhile to give it a try. A lot of factors go into that decision. I've barely started listing them in my head for decision-making sometime tonight.

[Canoerebel]

It is interesting that Erik went with his hunch that I wouldn't deploy DS to intervene. That's my history but he took a long chance (and the right one, it turns out) in making the decision. Now he knows that I know he has a strong feeling for what I do under these (and other) circumstances. So what does he think I will do next time? What do I think he thinks I'll do.

Games within the game. A great deal of fun.

[Canoerebel]

10/17/44

Ketoi: This list shows the better ships sunk on the day: TKs and AOs.

The question is whether to send Death Star south to intervene or to keep it on station to deal with Ketoi and the bombardment TFs and all that's going on there. I'm not close to making that decision yet.

[Canoerebel]

If the enemy carrier TF is the one sighted yesterday south of Hokkaido (as shown two pages back), it moved 16 hexes today - flank speed. Or this might be a different TF that came in from another angle, so that I'd be mistaken in concluding it used flank speed. But I think it probably did.

I think Erik will err on the side of me committing Death Star. I think he'll pull back. But he might not.

I think I'll move Death Star south a bit, rendezvousing with those TFs nearest, while sending those furthest at flank speed to the Aleutians.

That's my early thought, anyhow.

[Canoerebel]

There were two important but incompatible goals for the next turn: (1) get all the big bombardment TFs at Ketoi back to Shikuka to replenish for the next round; and (2) try to offer whatever protection was possible to the Herd of Empties, in light of KB's proximity.

I elected to try both: (1) The bombardment TFs to detach from Death Star and make the run to Shikuka without carrier support (relying on P-38s on LRCAP from that base for cover); and (2) DS to move back into the Pacific, with some Empties TFs rallying to that spot and others moving at full speed towards the Aleutians.

This plan involves all kinds of risks, so I'm anxious to see what happened. I'll be able to run the turn in about two hours.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/44

Ketoi: The opening moments of a new turn, watching the action but also trying to get a feel for what's where.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/44

Ketoi: It's pretty clear by this point that Erik has pulled KB back, so that the Empties have a window of at least this day to continue towards safety. Also, it seems that the big bombardment TFs are safely on their way to (or already arrived at) Shikuka.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/44

Paramushiro: Large Allied sweeps followed by escorting bombing raids vs. heavy enemy CAP. The sweeping fighters perform very well, which is a significant, but enough enemy fighters remain to give the 4EB a hard time.

I get the feeling that Allied fighters are beginning to gain an edge in aerial combat.

This graphic includes all the sweeps but only the two largest escorted raids. There were several smaller ones that suffered modest losses.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/44

Ketoi: Except for heavy aerial combat over Ketoi and the continued fighting in Burma, it was a quiet turn. That was a good thing.

The next order of business is to set up the infrastructure to allow a long series of bombardments of Ketoi. That should take a couple of days.

[Canoerebel]

10/19/44

NoPac: There are three main items of interest as this turn opens: (1) getting Death Star back on station without incident; (2) marshalling the Empties Herd to safety; and (3) sweeps against heavy enemy fighter concentration at Sapporo.

As the turn opens, DS indeed makes it's way just inside the Kuriles and it seems that there's no enemy carriers close to the Herd.

The Sapporo sweeps open with this encounter. Subsequent encounters are smaller and less one-sided. Overall, the Allied fighters come out ahead but not by a remarkable margin.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Ketoi: This is the first bombardment TF to come straight from Shikuka, as opposed to detaching from DS.

This is to test the logistics - what route does it take, how long does it take, what kind of detection does Erik get, etc.

If this is an accurate test, it's a four-day process: Day 1 depart Shikuka, Day 2 bombard, Day 3 retire towards Shikuka, Day 4 reach Shikuka. If that's the case, I can set up a rotating system so that bombardments occur each day.

Erik will catch on and take countermeasures, so the more enemy subs and MTBs I can take out, the better. Thank goodness for all the subs taken out since the Siege of Shikuka began on September 1.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Ketoi: It might be helpful to intermix 4-DD ASW TFs with the bombardment TFs to deal with the threat.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Ketoi: Small bombardment has little effect.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Ketoi: Allies subs have scored five or six hits on enemy subs over the past six weeks. Sound was turned down, so I don't know if the I-boat went down.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Ketoi: The Venturas contribute a bit.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

KB: In the open waters of the Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Burma: Erik withdrew from Toungoo yesterday, consolidating his forces in the hex to the SW. My forces will take a few days to come up - a few will linger at Toungoo, in hopes that upgrades will take effect.

I hope Erik continues to stand in the jungle, and I think he will. I prefer for the stalemate to continue for the time being, keeping the Japanese MLR very far forward. IMO, it's too far forward. Erik knows exactly what he's doing, recognizes how forward he is, has plans for when and how to retire if various eventualities to crop up.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/44

Ketoi: Allied bombardment counterproductive. I'll rest my guys a few days. Then they'll attack, with the primary objective being to reduce the 4 forts.

Reinforcements are prepping at Shikuka, including 6th Division. I may bring in at least a RCT in the near term, hoping that massed LCI(G) gunships will have a positive effect on enemy shoreguns and dug-in infantry.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/20/44

Ketoi: It might be helpful to intermix 4-DD ASW TFs with the bombardment TFs to deal with the threat.

3-ship ASW TFs are optimal.