Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

Burma: This is the only P-47D25 squadron in Burma. The actual results (non sync-bug) were 13-2 in favor of the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

Ketoi: Main Allied air raid. No CAP. Damage inflicted decent.

I think the results of yesterday's air battle indicated that Japanese fighters aren't doing well on LRCAP over Ketoi. Erik will still use them at select intervals, but not as a general tactic.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

Port Blair: D-Day here. It's not strongly defended, and I don't think Erik has/had any detection on the TFs involved.

He might load up airfields like Rangoon and Victoria Point. RN carriers are present to provide CAP (they aren't carrying any strike aircraft, as I do not anticipate a surface engagement nor the presence of enemy subs).

If the Allies can take Port Blair, Erik will then make deductions about threats to Malaya, Sumatra, etc. That, in turn, should lead to deductions about the stability of his army in Burma.

I don't have plans to invade deeper in the short term, so this is mainly to give the appearance of a threat on a new flank.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

Port Blair: I think half or less of the Allied troops came ashore. All units are 100% prepped. I'll take a look at disruption/fatigue etc. and decide whether to order a shock attack. Forts will be high.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

Burma: Allied attack at low odds nevertheless pretty impactful against the Japanese.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

Ketoi: Encouraging bombardment, both because few Allied units took part and because those units incurred no counter-battery casualties.

I think the big Allied BB bombardments go in tonight. If that's the case, the Allied army will attack tomorrow, the hope being to drop forts to 2.

[Canoerebel]

10/26/44

KB: At Yokahama, having completed it's Pacific raid.

[HansBolter]

The lack of counterbattery fire could indicate a supply shortage.

[Canoerebel]

I haven't seen a supply malus. I was wondering if that unit (and its guns) have been disabled, disrupted or fatigued. There's still a bit of fire coming in, but nothing like the opening landings.

But if supply is the issue, all the better!

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Port Blair: I was hoping to disrupt the enemy garrison, but whiff. After I entered the orders and sent the turn, I second guessed myself, thinking Erik might have some DDs at Rangoon or Victoria Point. But then I figured he probably wouldn't deploy them, even if he had them available. He doesn't know what I have out here and he has to play carefully with his combat vessels.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: A decent but not stellar bombardment. It looks like the bombardments are still focusing on support troops - a necessity before the AI will serve up the combat units.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: Similar results.

This is the third time the Alabama and Iowa TFs have bombarded in tandem, same turn. I wanted to see if there might be an amplified effect. I don't think there is.

I'm going to have the two TFs bombard on separate days for awhile, to see if that enhances the impact.

Figuring that ERik might have a plan up his sleeve, I moved Death Star west, towards Shikuka, to offer better coverage to the retiring BB TFs and also to offer a much different look for DS. The hunch was that Erik might unleash his bombers. Let's see.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ponape: D-Day at Ponape.

Long-term recon indicates there's a CD unit here and nothing else. Erik has no detection on any of the TFs involved.

This invasion is one reason KB's location, as it swung south towards Marcus, was of such interest. I'm not risking much here but don't want to lose a good Kiwi brigade.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: The hunch proved correct. Enemy strike targets BB Alabama TF as it retires from bombardment. This is the first strike that's flown since the Ketoi campaign began. I've been expecting an all-out onslaught, and thought this might be it, but this is the only strike of the day.

A surprise here is that the P-38s at Shikuka set to 50% LRCAP didn't provide any coverage. I'll have to check settings and take this into account. If my LBA can't be counted on, then I've got to reconfigure security for the ships moving between Ketoi and Shikuka.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: 4EB raids seem to be impacting enemy combat troops more than the bombardment missions.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: Secondary raid has similar results. Later, smaller raids (Venturas, for instance) have minimal impact.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Burma: This raid against Pegu meant to slow down any IJA reinforcements bound for the key hex near Toungoo. It looks like 2nd Tank Division is heading that way. My guys should be able to attack once or twice before this unit makes it.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: AKs unloading supplies. Early in the invasion, the enemy CD unit was ripping the AK TFs to shreds. But the past two or three turns, there's been little if any damage. The enemy guns are firing but missing. I'm guessing they are disrupted and/or fatigued.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ponape: This isn't an atoll, so the enemy auto-bombardment is the only battle action on D-Day. But things look good for an Allied victory tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/44

Ketoi: Discouraging result. After the bombardments and bombing raids, I had elevated hopes. Forts remain at 3.

What to do now? Continue the bombardments and try to coax the Allied combat engineer unit back to health. Right now it has far too many disablements to allow an attack.