ORIGINAL: obvert
When do the first CVEs arrive? And where?
Well ... it's not in Portland/Vancouver. And it's not next week. [;)]
The Allies get their first CVEs elsewhere, and those late 42 IMHO are the most important. The game is won or lost in 43, and if the Allies get into 44 with a head of steam, they will be fine. Just like any other game, this one will have to get to 43 though before that massive shot of CVEs and tankers will be missed. In game the xAKs just aren't as necessary as in the war, and the Allies can get by without a lot of them.
Is getting to 43 without losing a CV exchange a guarantee for Japan?
As others have pointed out, will Japan conquer the DEI more easily with a few less divisions and much of the IJN still in the Eastern Pacific?
If Michael can build a fortress in the DEI and hold it, can the Japanese muster enough force to kick him out and meet their timeline for getting the oil and major bases of the SRA, plus Burma, plus China?
If he has lost Hiryu, or it needs extensive repairs, the USN is not on bad footing for a CV battle within a month or two. Plus there are the reinforcements and forwarded timeline of airframe arrivals. The Corsair and Hellcat early? Yes, please!
Does anyone really think the Allies would have lost the war in the Pacific if Kaiser didn't convince the Govt he could make all of those ships, and didn't open those yards?
Interesting questions. In my game, I lost Hiryu (to sub torpedoes) in Jan 42. My opponent didn't offer a CV vs. CV battle until mid-1943 after his Essex and some Independence class showed up. Some carrier battles happened in August 1943. We both made some mistakes not concentrating at the proper time and I lost a couple from MKB and he lost at least 1 and as many as 4 pre-war carriers with more damaged. Right now, I have the carrier strength but it's August 1943. I'm certainly not going on the offensive. I can delay him but that's temporary. By the end of the year, he'll have carrier superiority again. Remember, this is the era of the Hellcat vs. my A6M5/A6M5c. We're talking January 1942. He's got Wildcats, a handful of Dauntlesses and Devastators, maybe a few Avengers. The Allies will get butchered unless they're very careful.
I believe the Japanese can take the SRA with a handful of CVL/Es and surface ships, plus the LBA. They don't need KB. The big concern I have for the Japanese fleet off the US West coast is a safe, friendly port. Where the hell is that? My concern is a couple divisions (or more) that aren't going into the SRA. There's not a lot of ground strength to begin with. Some bases are going to have to be bypassed. Scary thought.
I don't think that not losing a carrier exchange through 1943 is a guarantee for the Japanese. I've lost a total of 147 deck capacity and our deck capacity is about equal right now. Given his worst case scenario in out battles this month, he'll still have superiority by the end of the year. And it'll only get worse for me with time. He can take his carriers and go hunting mine. He'll eventually win, even if I take out a chunk of his. Then, the question will be, how well my forts hold up against his overwhelming force. And his B-29s...
[/center]
