March to Moscow (D21 4.6)

[SpicyJuan]

ORIGINAL: Jukipo

You don't know if its possible at all or just based on your progress in Smolensk? Your rapid advances north and south must be causing the soviets to redirect some reserves from the center to north and south no?

I have played this scenario before and read some AARs. Nobody has captured Moscow in 1941. My progress is good so far. Let's see what happens.

Wow really? Why is that? Is it because the AI is programmed not to make the same poor historical decisions or something else?

[atheory]

If I may inject, I surmise that as with the house rule that the german army groups stay on their historical path for the first year, that Russian units are programmed to a certain area, thus if enough units + supply constraints, + weather etc.etc..are thrown in the path of a german army group then it is possible to create the condition that an objective such as moscow cannot be taken in 41. On the other hand, Lenningrad seems relatively easy to take in 41.

[SpicyJuan]

ORIGINAL: GrauWolf80

If I may inject, I surmise that as with the house rule that the german army groups stay on their historical path for the first year, that Russian units are programmed to a certain area, thus if enough units + supply constraints, + weather etc.etc..are thrown in the path of a german army group then it is possible to create the condition that an objective such as moscow cannot be taken in 41. On the other hand, Lenningrad seems relatively easy to take in 41.

So are you saying that the Russians wouldn't respond as they historically would? i.e. If the Germans are on the verge of taking Leningrad the Russians would send troops from Moscow perhaps weakening them for a German offensive there? I'm just trying to make sense of things as Nigel Askey told me that in the simulations he ran that if the Germans can get into their historical position on August 5th 1941 (which is apparently very hard to do) they have a very good chance to capture Moscow by late September.

On the other hand if this is not the case, could it maybe tell us something about the war? For example Leningrad would've fallen 8/10 times and the Germans would only capture Moscow 2-3/10 times, proving Stolfi wrong?

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Jukipo

I had nothing to do so I decided to invade Soviet Union.

Isn't that what Hitler said? [:D]

[sPzAbt653]

I surmise that as with the house rule that the german army groups stay on their historical path for the first year,

If someone came up with such a house rule it would be against the intention of the scenario, but players can certainly do as they wish.

So are you saying that the Russians wouldn't respond as they historically would?

The original PO Design was for an historical Soviet response, but several playtesters found it too easy so it was changed to give the Axis player more of a challenge.
Moscow in 1941 is certainly attainable [holding it is not so easy]. So is Leningrad, but generally getting both is not possible. Putting the main effort towards Stalingrad will make Moscow and Leningrad impossible in 1941.
The PO is designed to respond to any Axis move in any direction.

[Cfant]

good luck 😉

[atheory]

@sPzAbt653 - I find your statement about the house rule rather amusing, and I do mean in that in a friendly jesting fashion, as according to the scenario briefing under self-imposed restrictions / house rules I copy and paste the following:

"4. German units must remain with their respective Army Group assignment (based on the counter color) in the historical region through March 31st 1942. The exception to this is German division reinforcements with counter color grey and white center, black insignia. When they arrive they can go to any Army Group. After the capture of Sevastopol units of the 11th Army can be assigned anywhere. Historically a good chunk along with Manstein were sent to Army Group North and the rest parceled out between Army Group South and Army Group South. ( If Army Group North is secure then it would be wise to keep them all in Army Group South). Units from Hungary, Romania, Italy and if activated Bulgaria should always remain in Army Group South."

So, understand my confusion if this has changed somewhere post version 4.6 without notice.

@Spicejuan - I'm not debating on what ifs, I only stated that the Russian units are "probably" programmed to a certain area. To extrapolate then, yes using the following fake example....if the 1st Moscow Division was programmed, or setup to use a different term, to defend moscow, it is unlikely that unit will ship itself off to Lenningrad. I could be wrong however. (edited) Since sPzAbt653 is one of the scenario designers, I happily defer to his remarks regarding Russian units ability to respond to axis movements in any direction.

@Jukipo - I look forward to matching my progress with your own, best wishes.

[sPzAbt653]

I find your statement about the house rule rather amusing

Ah, thanks for clarifying that this 'rule' actually comes from the scenario, I wasn't aware!
Well, I kind of wondered about it as I was typing my previous response but it seemed more like something a player had come up with. To clarify my position, this scenario was finished around 2010 and for a couple years we [Rick and I] were dealing with requests for changes and adjustments and at some point I got tired of it and told Rick that I was done [I think around v2.3] and he could continue if he wanted. So that has left the scenario open to morphing into something not intended originally [by me].
My original intention going back to 2007 was to turn the Fire in the East scenario into something that we all could play as the Axis against the computer, a scenario in which we could explore different strategies to see if better than historical results could be achieved. This required designing the scenario to replicate all of the historical influences, and basically minus Hitler. With the powerful TOAW Editor, players would be able to make further changes as they wished [up to their level of dedication, lol].
So for the past few years I have not been following where D21 has gone, so forgive me for not being aware of these changes such as House Rules concerning deployment and use of forces [and I also noticed different unit colors for the Army Groups]. Never my intention, but thanks to Rick for continuing the evolution of this scenario. Obviously I should refrain from further comments as I don't know what I am talking about anymore [:)]

[sPzAbt653]

if the 1st Moscow Division was programmed, or setup to use a different term, to defend moscow, it is unlikely that unit will ship itself off to Lenningrad.

That said by me in the previous post, I will stick my neck out just one more time and say that the above quote is not true. D21 uses all five objective tracks for every unit, and this allows the PO to fairly effectively combat the human Axis various strategies in a reasonable manner. As I don't assume that Rick made any change to that aspect of the scenario it should play as well as it did years ago. Therefore, if Moscow is not threatened but Leningrad is, then Elmer might indeed send the 1st Moscow Division to Leningrad where it is needed more [;)]

[Jukipo]

Army Group North, turn 9, 7/20/1941

Kingisepp is heavily fortified. We’ll have to wait for reinforcements until we can capture it. The main road is now clear through Luga to Leningrad. On the left flank 16th Army is moving towards Lake Ilmen.

Panzer divisions are on low supply. The enemy is very weak, so we are going to drive forward. We are not going to rest until Leningrad is surrounded.

[Jukipo]

Army Group Center, turn 9, 7/20/1941

We are fighting in the suburbs of Smolensk. The city is almost surrounded. We are going to capture it in the next few days.

Most of the panzer divisions are resupplying behind the frontline.

On the south flank our next major objective is Bryansk. 2nd Army is going to guard our southern flank along the red dotted line.

[Jukipo]

Army Group South, turn 9, 7/20/1941

We are scouting for possible Dnieper crossing sites. The river is wide and there are not many places to cross. 1st Pz Army is resupplying. Our mobile divisions must be fully supplied before we cross the river.

The railhead is near Berdychi. The first Italian units arrived by train.

[SpicyJuan]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

I surmise that as with the house rule that the german army groups stay on their historical path for the first year,

If someone came up with such a house rule it would be against the intention of the scenario, but players can certainly do as they wish.

So are you saying that the Russians wouldn't respond as they historically would?

The original PO Design was for an historical Soviet response, but several playtesters found it too easy so it was changed to give the Axis player more of a challenge.
Moscow in 1941 is certainly attainable [holding it is not so easy]. So is Leningrad, but generally getting both is not possible. Putting the main effort towards Stalingrad will make Moscow and Leningrad impossible in 1941.
The PO is designed to respond to any Axis move in any direction.

Ok very interesting, thank you. How are Soviet reinforcements programed, do they reduce if cities are taken? For example Nigel Askey told me that 40% of all Russian forces in the Battle of Moscow were mobilized from the Moscow region (in late 1941) and if the Germans were able to capture Moscow by early October these troops would essentially not exist. So in D21 if Moscow is fallen is there a serious drop in Soviet replacements/reinforcements?

[Jukipo]

Finland, turn 10, 7/23/1941

Meanwhile in Finland. Near Arctic Sea the German 19th Geb Korps has advanced to Litsa River. We are not going to move any further. The terrain is very difficult, there is no road. We couldn’t supply our troops. We have set defensive positions along the river line.

36th Geb Korps have been advancing along Salla-Alakurtti railroad. Alakurtti village is strongly entrenched. We have isolated one tank division in the woods. We are waiting until it is out of supplies. Finnish 3rd Division has encircled a soviet position near Kiestinki.

Finnish offensive is underway north of Lake Ladoga. Soviet frontline troops are destroyed. Divisions are moving SE towards Svir River. Three divisions captured Sortavala and then turned SW towards Karelian Isthmus. The main offensive in the Isthmus will begin in the next week.

[Jukipo]

Army Group North, turn 10, 7/23/1941

Kingisepp is still in enemy hands. We have reached Leningrad outer fortification zone near Gatchina. We are moving NE. We are going to surround the city. 16th Army is advancing south of Lake Ilmen.

Soviet losses are over 50000 infantry squads, 10000 tanks and 3800 planes. We believe the best part of the Red Army is already destroyed. This campaign is going to be over in late September.

We have lost about 8900 HRS, 284 panzers, 410 planes.

[Jukipo]

Army Group Center, turn 10, 7/23/1941

Smolensk is captured! The city is an important supply hub, our supply situation should improve dramatically after this victory. Next major objectives are Vyazma and Bryansk.

[Jukipo]

Army Group South, turn 10, 7/23/1941

Kaniv bridge is heavily defended. We are going to cross the river at Cherkassy. Panzer divisions are driving towards the crossing zone. In the north SS Wiking attacked across Pripyat River near Chernobyl. They couldn’t from a bridgehead. Division suffered heavy losses.

Odessa is surrounded. 11th Army continues towards Nikolayev. Rumanians are going to capture Odessa.

[Jukipo]

Army Group North, turn 11, 7/27/1941

Kingisepp was captured.

Here is the plan for the next two weeks. We are going to encircle Leningrad. First, we’ll cut all road and rail connections by capturing Mga and Shlisselburg. Then we’ll capture Novaya Ladoga, Volkhov and Tikhvin. 18th Army is going to deploy around Leningrad and prevent any breakout attempt. 16th Army is going to advance to green dotted line and defend our east flank. Finnish forces are going to attack to the Karelian Isthmus.

[Jukipo]

Army Group Center, turn 11, 7/27/1941

Here is the plan for the next two weeks. Our objective is Rzhev – Vyazma – Kirov – Bryansk line. We have already managed to capture some fortifications near Kirov.

[Jukipo]

Army Group South, turn 11, 7/27/1941

Cherkassy was captured. 1st Pz. Army begins to cross the river.